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A presentation conducted by Dr Ian Oppermann, Director, Digital Productivity and Services Flagship, CSIRO. Presented on Monday the 30th of September 2013. Developments in information and communications technologies have allowed more sophisticated understanding of infrastructure use, wear and aging. It has also allowed greater interconnectivity and communication between systems leading to smart tolling, smarter traffic flow, and more efficient interconnections. Planning for future smart infrastructure requires navigation of a field of technical, financial and societal factors. Here again, information and communications technologies can help
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Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue
Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, 3rd October: Academic and Policy Dialogue
www.isngi.org
ENDORSING PARTNERS
The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney:
• Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank)
• Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW)
www.isngi.org
Smart planning for smart infrastructure
Presented by: Dr Ian Oppermann, Director, Digital Productivity and Services Flagship, CSIRO
Smart Planning for Smart Infrastructure
DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIP
Dr Ian Oppermann Director, CSIRO Digital Productivity and Services Flagship
Forecasting and Predictions
"Given that infrastructure is not an 'engineering artefact' but an 'agent of change', is it possible to imagine infrastructure
systems that can meet the needs of twice today's population with half today's resources while providing twice the liveability?
(Factor 8)"
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Make everything “smart”
Making things “Smart”
Long Term Planning
High degree of monitoring
High degree of
Optimisation
Real Time Optimisation
Physical Assets Information Network
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Liveability – a much bigger challenge
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Source : Auspoll 2013
Quadrant analysis – how Australians rank the importance and performance of their cities on attributes of liveability, 2012
How do our cities stack up?
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Source : Auspoll 2013
Property Council of Australia’s “My City Liveability” Index, 2010–12
One Driver of Liveability
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Accessibility of jobs within a 30-minute drive in Melbourne, 2011
Source : “State of Australian 2013 Cities”, July 2013, Department of Infrastructure and Transport. Major Cities Unit
One Driver of Liveability
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Accessibility of jobs within a 45-minute mass transit trip in Melbourne, 2011
Source : “State of Australian 2013 Cities”, July 2013, Department of Infrastructure and Transport. Major Cities Unit
Planning now
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Forecasting and Predictions What is the future demand on a system?
Flows and events Multiple dynamic scales
Demand Forecasting
Strategic Planning
Tactical Planning
Operations
Workforce skills forecasting
Customer/Spatial demand forecasting
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2011 2023 2035 2047
Forecast electricity prices
CPRS-5
CPRS-15
Garnaut-10
Garnaut-25
Energy price forecasting
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Disruption management
Performance Monitoring
Strategic/Long-Term Planning
Demand Forecasting
Strategic Planning
Tactical Planning
Operations
What should a system look like? Location of assets Schedule of changes and upgrades Asset addition, augmentation, removal
IFAP LAIRDW
BlueScope Steel
PWCS / HVCCC
AusPost hub location
Fuji Xerox service vehicles
Network Opt Platform
Capacity Opt Platform
Real Option Analysis
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Disruption management
Performance Monitoring
Tactical/Medium-Term Planning
Demand Forecasting
Strategic Planning
Tactical Planning
Operations
How should a system operate? Physical operating policies Service delivery and business rules To achieve the planned system throughput To maximise maintenance opportunities. What-if Analysis: Whether an asset can be managed under expected demand patterns given the current and expected new methods of operation.
Bulk Material Supply Chains
Iron Ore, Pilbara
“in 18 months, CSIRO’s optimiser scheduled over 0.5m of iron ore more than the plan obtained manually.” – IFORS News 2012
240mt pa operation
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Disruption management
Performance Monitoring
Operational/Day-to-Day Planning
Demand Forecasting
Strategic Planning
Tactical Planning
Operations Plans and schedules Resources to deploy Activities to undertake Dynamic pricing and demand management
VASS / DVASS Transport Scheduling
Library
BEISS
Unreliable supplier inventory optimisation
Crew Rostering
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Disruption management
Performance Monitoring
Where to from here?
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Disruption Management and Adjusting
Demand Forecasting
Strategic Planning
Tactical Planning
Operations
Disruption management
Performance Optimisation
What is currently happening and emerging Complex event processing Streaming data real time rescheduling
Boeing Maintenance
Rescheduling of resources
Potline sensing and control
Car crash rate anomaly detection
Anomalies in traffic signal data
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Linked Data
Smarter Analytics For better demand forecasting
Game Changers - Analytics
Crowd Sourcing
Locally relevant Globally aggregated
data sets
Sensors Everywhere
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Game Changers - Capturing built infrastructure
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Game Changers – understanding disruption
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.
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Game Changers - Whole of system thinking
Long Term Planning is a risky business
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Plan
Operate
Monitor
Optimise
The best way to predict the future is to invent it
No plan survives contact with the enemy General Douglas MacArthur
Allen Kay
“Everything that can be invented has been invented”, Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899
Thank you Digital Productivity and Services Flagship Dr Ian Oppermann t +61 2 9325 3203 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au
DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIP
Digital Productivity and Services Flagship Dr Gaurav Singh t +61 3 9545 8467 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au
Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.
Paul Krugman, 1991 Professor Princeton University, Nobel Prize in Economics 2008
