SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM

Victor Finkel

CONCEPTS

Just War Theory• “Jus ad bellum” - Right to go to War

– Just Cause– Last Resort– Declared by Legitimate Authority– Right Intention– Reasonable Chance of Success– End Proportional to Means

• “Jus in bello” – Right conduct within War– Discrimination

• Who are legitimate targets of war?

– Proportionality• How much force is appropriate?

– Responsibility• Maintaining responsibility amongst soldiers

• “Jus post bellum”– Compensation– Rehabilitation– Punishment

• Standing in International Law?• Significance of International Law?

Golden Arches Peace Theory

No two countries with McDonalds in them will go to war-Level of Economic Developmnet; Middle Class to

support McDonald’s Network-Symbol of economic interdependence

Statistically speaking seemed to work pretty well!

Fails: NATO/Serbia (2005)

India/Pakistan (Kashmir 1998)Israel/Lebanon (2006)Georgia/Russia (2008)

Dell Theory of Conflict PreventionNo two countries that are both part of a major global supply

chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each other as long as they are both part of the same global supply chain.” \

Nations are unwilling to risk the employment generated by globalizastion, and don’t fight.

Use to argue why economic ties are a positive; e.g. in sanctions

debatesExamples:

India/Pakistan Nuclear StandoffTaiwan/China

?

Democratic Peace Theory

Democracies almost never fight with each other – lack of any real wars between real democracies in 20th C

-Normative Reasons-Structural Reasons

Argue that promoting democracy has broader benefits to protecting the security of existing democratic

nations?democratic crusade?

1) Other explanations; e.g. political similarity

2) Just a matter of time – e.g. Iran (is this true democracy

though?)3) Promoting democracy can

backfire – increase conflict

Mutually Assured Destruction vs Non-Proliferation

• More Nukes = More Safety!• Presumes: – Bipolar world– Rational Actors– Perfect Detection– Perfect Lines of Communication– Clear operating protocols

• How closely does this reflect reality?• Are you willing to gamble on a mistake?