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How to keep up with the literature? How to stop the loss of biodiversity? How to study/predict/manageglobal change effects on agrodiversity? How to achieve interdisciplinarity? How to involve stakeholders? How to learn from network theory? What can we learn from biogeography?
Citation preview
Outstanding challenges in the study of
seed exchange networks in agrobiodiversity
conservation
Marco Pautassomarpauta at gmail.com
CEFE, CNRS, 14 May 2012
Seed exchange networks: defining the termsIntra-European Trade
of Ornamental Plants (2003)Organic seed
The talk is partly based on this review of the literature
Challenge nr 1: how to keep up with the literature?
from Pautasso et al. (2012)
Agr Sust Dev
A selection of recent
reviews on agro-
biodiversity conservation and/or seed exchange networks
NETSEEDFRB-CESAB
NETSEED-CESAB
Agrobiodiversité et réseaux sociaux
Une approche interdisciplinaire pour analyser comment les systèmes semenciers locaux
agissent sur la diversité des plantes domestiquées
Butchart et al. (2010)
Science
Challenge nr 2: how to stop the loss of biodiversity?
A) species’ population trends, habitat extent and condition, and community composition
aggregated indicators of
B) ecological footprint, nitrogen deposition, alien species, overexploitation and climatic impacts
C) protected area extent and biodiversity coverage,responses to invasive alien species, sustainableforest management and biodiversity-related aid
Web of Science papers on biodiversity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
num
ber
of pap
ers
CESAB (Centre for Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity data)Technopole de l’Arbois (~ Aix en Provence)
3rd Call for CESAB Working Groups (deadline pre-registration 25 May
2012,deadline for submission end of June
2012)
Average time spent travelling in the UK (1930s-1990s)
Schulz (2004) Population & Environment
[CO2]
from MacKay (2008) Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air
Average temperature [CO2] (a reminder)
Shakun et al (2012) Nature
Fox et al. (2009) Frontiers in the Ecology and the Environment
Carbon emissions of conservation biologists
Sustainable transport of seed (sorghum?) in Kathwana market,
Kenya
Picture: Christian Leclerc (CIRAD,
Montpellier)
Seed potato sources in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia
Gildemacher et al. (2009) A description of seed potato systems in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. American
Journal of Potato Research
Maize seed sources in Mexico
Bellon et al. (2011) Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seedsystems in Mexico to climate change. PNAS
Challenge nr 3. How to study/predict/manage
global change effects on agrodiversity?
Pautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Sustainable Development
Challenge nr 4. How to achieve interdisciplinarity?
Kiss et al. (2010) Can epidemic models describe the diffusion of topics across disciplines? Journal of
Informetrics
Hypothetical network of interdisciplinary collaborations
among scientists interested in seed exchange networks
Pautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Sustainable Development
Challenge nr 5. Involving stakeholders
Pautasso et al. (2012) European Journal of Plant Pathology
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia
Abay et al. (2011) Plant Genetic Resources – Characterization and Utilization
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia
data from: Abay et al. (2011)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6number of links
num
ber
of n
odes incoming
links
outgoinglinks
…
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 2 4 6 8
number of outgoing links
num
ber
of in
com
ing
links
N nodes = 186, N links = 210node ID links in links out
218 1 0314 0 1
135 2 1120 1 1
Network structure
modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface
random
scale-free
local
small-world
one-way
two-ways
uncorrelated
and correlation between links in and out
NATURA
L
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
food webs
airport networks
cell metabolism
neural networks
railway networks
ant nests
WWWInternet
electrical power grids
software maps
computing grids
E-mail patterns
innovation flows
telephone calls
co-authorship
nets
family networks
committees
sexual partnerships
DISEASE SPREAD
Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US
Internet structure
Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review
HIV spread network
Some recent applications of network theory
urban road networks
Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
Challenge nr 6. How to learn from network theory?Network
epidemiology
Seed exchange networks
Elements moving thanks to a network of contacts
pathogens/human beings
seeds, varieties/ farmers
Diffusion happens inadvertently through aware
decisionsMain aim of
applied researchminimizing
disease spreadpreserving
agrobiodiversity
Picture from Kaluza et al. (2010)
Interface
step 1
step 2
step 3
step n
…
Simple model of spread and establishment in a network
pt probability of transmission
… 100
node 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
pp probability of persistence
SIS deterministic model, 100 Nodes, fixed structure, absence/presence continuum
P [i (x, t)] = { pp * P [i (x, t-1)] + pt * P [i (y, t-1)]}
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
probability of transmission
pro
bab
ility
of p
ersi
sten
ce
localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)
Lower invasion threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between
in- and out-degree
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
NO INVASION
INVASION
Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely
connected)N replicates = 100; error bars are St.
Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at
p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 1000
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
fin
al siz
e o
f in
vasio
n
(N o
f n
od
es w
ith
in
vasio
n s
tatu
s >
0.0
1)
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
(local) (sw)
(rand)(sf2)
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 1000
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
(sf0) (sf1)
starting node of the invasion
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0 2 4 6 8
-1.0
0.0
1.0
-1 0 1 2 3
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
su
m a
t eq
uilib
riu
m o
f in
vasio
n
sta
tus a
cro
ss a
ll n
od
es (
+0
.01
fo
r sf
netw
ork
s)
local
randsf2 (log-
log)
n of links from starting node
n of links from starting node
sw
sf0 (log-log)
sf1 (log-log)
Correlation of invasion final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network
connectivity
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecological Complexity
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia
data from: Abay et al. (2011)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6number of outgoing links
num
ber
of n
odes
BuketMugulatMelfaAdinefasHabesAynalemBolentabridges
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6number of incoming links
num
ber
of n
odes
BuketMugulatMelfaAdinefasHabesAynalemBolentabridges
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3 4 5 6number of outgoing links
num
ber
of n
odes
BolentaAynalemHabesAdinefasMelfaMugulatBuket
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6number of incoming links
num
ber
of n
odes
BolentaAynalemHabesAdinefasMelfaMugulatBuket
n = 11, y = -0.25x + 1.91
R2 = 0.29, p = 0.09
0
1
2
3
4
0 2 4 6 8
n = 14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 2 4 6
n = 9
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4
n = 16
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4 5
n = 14, y = 0.32x + 1.33
R2 = 0.21, p = 0.10
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4
n = 11, y = 0.32x + 1.48
R2 = 0.32, p = 0.07
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4
n = 19
0
1
2
3
4
0 2 4 6data from: Abay et al. (2011)
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia
number of outgoing links
nu
mb
er
of
incom
ing
lin
ks
n = 92, y = -0.37x + 0.80
R2 = 0.20, p < 0.01
0
1
2
3
0 1 2 3 4
What is an organization?
Butts (2009) Revisiting the foundations of network analysis. Science
Network metrics as a function of sampling intensity
Dormann et al.
(2009) The Open Ecology Journal
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia
Abay et al. (2011) Plant Genetic Resources – Characterization and Utilization
Orbis terrarum, Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa, ~27 a.C.
from http://www.arqweb.com/vitrum/orbis22.asp
from Jeger et al. 2011
b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/
a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
(c)
(d)
(a) (c)
log
10 s
pp
ric
hn
ess
(n)
(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens
Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(d)
(yr)
Botanic vs. linguistic diversity
Burnside et al. (2011) Biological Reviews
Species-people correlation in Europe
from Araujo (2003) Global Ecology & Biogeography
plants birds
people
spp
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
Invasion biogeography of Sudden Oak Death
from: McKelvey et al. (2007) SOD Science Symposium III
Phytophthora ramorum in the UK and Europe
From: UK Forestry Commission (Feb 2012) and EFSA Plant Health Panel (2011)
Species richness of human parasitic and infectious
diseases as a function of latitude
Burnside et al. (2011) Human macroecology: linking patternand process in big-picture human ecology. Biological Reviews
Challenge nr 7. What can we learn from biogeography?
Freeman (2011) Domesticated crop richness in human subsistence cultivation systems:
a test of macroecological and economic determinants. Global Ecology & Biogeography
Scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity,
landscapes and public engagement with nature
Kass et al. (2012) Journal
of Applied Ecology
1) Connect for Life
2) Go for Growth
3) Keep it Local
4) Succeed through Science
A proposed model of on-farm plant genetic conservation
redrawn from: Maxted et al. (2002) Towards a methodology for on-farm conservation of plant genetic resources. Genetic Resources and Crop
Evolution
Selection of target taxa
Project commission
Ecogeographic survey
Development of conservation objectives
Field exploration
On farm conservationPhase 1: Project Planning and
Establishment• Identification of project site(s)
• Project sustainability•Identification of project
partners• Formulation
of project activities
Phase 2: Project Management and Monitoring• Initiation of project activities
• Monitoring activities• Review of project activities
Phase 3: Diversity Utilisation• Traditional, general and
professional utilization
• Links to ex situ conservation, research and education
Conservation products
Product deposition and dissemination
Characterization / evaluation
Plant genetic resource utilization
Challenge nr 8. How to identify research priorities?
Identifying research priorities and emerging issues
Identifying research priorities and emerging issues
Grierson et al. (2011)
Seven means of identifying research priorities
(they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive)
(i) reflection by individual workshop participants,
(ii) reviews of the peer-reviewed and gray literature by individual workshop participants,
(iii) informal discussions between workshop participants and colleagues,
(iv) use of email, blogs, tweets, Facebook, and other electronic mechanisms for social networking,
(v) facilitating a workshop with colleagues,
(vi) assigning students to generate material as a class assignment,
and (vii) an interactive website.Sutherland et al. (2011) Methods in Ecology & Evolution
Question requirements…(i) answerable through a realistic research design,
(ii) that have a factual answer that does not depend on value judgments,
(iii) that address important gaps in knowledge,
(iv) of a spatial and temporal scope that reasonably could be addressed by a research team,
(v) not formulated as a general topic area,
(vi) not answerable with it all depends, (vii) except if questioning a precise statement (‘does the earth go round the sun?’)
(vii) should not be answerable by yes or no (i.e. not ‘is X better for biodiversity than Y’),
(viii) if related to impact and interventions, contains a subject, an intervention, and a measurable outcome.
An ideal question suggests the design of research that is required to answer it or can be envisioned as translating the question into directly testable research hypotheses.
Sutherland et al. (2011) Methods in Ecology & Evolution
Challenge nr 9. How to promote a diversity of research methods?
Pautasso et al.
(2012) Agr Sust
Dev
Three results from recent game theory studies
Kaplan et al. (2012) Proceedings of the
Royal Society B
3. higher amount of exchanges in high variance environments
1. cooperation is more likely to persist in an interacting
population if cooperating
individuals are mobile
Droz et al. (2009) European
Physical Journal B
Santos et al. (2009) Journal of
Theoretical Biology
2. cooperation benefits from
diversity in the number of social
interactions and in the choice of role models to imitate
Summary of challenges
1. Keeping up with the literature
2. Stopping biodiversity loss
3. Global change interactions
4. Interdisciplinarity
5. Involving stakeholders
6. Network theory
7. Large-scale picture
8. Identifying research priorities
9. Diversity of methods
Don’t miss the ISE sessions S28 and S10
on Thursday 24 May at the Botanical Institute13th Congress of the International Society of
Ethnobiology, 20-25 May 2012, Montpellier
“Cultural diversity and biological diversity for sustainable development: exploring the past to build up the future”
A forum of 25 researchers selected by the European Commission in April 2012
Please send your suggestions!
marpauta at gmail.com
http://voice.euraxess.org/
Samedi 19 Mai,Mas Drevon, Montpellier, 17h
Acknowledgements
Claude Steck, Freiburg i.B.
Mike Jeger, Silwood
Ingrid Parmentier,
Brussels
Kevin Gaston,
Cornwall
Diego Fontaneto,Verbania
Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck
Mike McKinney, Knoxville
Lorenzo Marini, Uppsala
Alessandro Chiarucci,
Siena
Susanne Fritz, Frankfurt
Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich
Peter Weisberg,
Reno
Glen Powell, Wye
Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris
Tom Harwood, Canberra
Caroline Pecher, Bozen
Life cycle assessment for walnut seedling production
Cambria & Pierangeli (2011) A life cycle assessment case study for walnut tree
(Juglans regia L.) seedlings production. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
Life cycle assessments of the US food system
Heller & Keoleian (2003) Assessing the sustainability of the US foodsystem: a life cycle perspective. Agricultural Systems
Genetic structure of a rice landrace in Northern Thailand
Pusadee et al. (2009) Genetic structure and isolation by distancein a landrace of Thai rice. PNAS
Regression model of n of spp per homegarden, Peru
Perrault-Archmibault & Coomes (2008) Distribution of agrobiodiversity in home gardens
along the Corrientes river, Peruvian Amazon. Economic Botany
LAT
SPP
GDP
AGE
FLORA
AREA
SPP
„Wealth“
„Garden“
SPP
„Flora“
LAT
GDP
FLORA
POP
AGE
AREA
SPP„combined“
Hypothesis: Rich countries have rich gardens
Hyp.: Garden characteristics matter most
Hyp.: Diverse garden mirror a rich country flora Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
Biogeographical patterns of the living collections of the world’s botanic
gardens
Hyp.: There‘s a combination of processes
LAT
SPP
GDP
AGE
FLORA
AREA
SPP
SPP
LAT
GDP
FLORA
POP
AGE
AREA
SPP.48
R² = .22
R² = .21
.43
.21
R² = .22
.47
.01
-.55
R² = .44.19
-.59
-.11.31
.28.30.68
Significant at alpha 0.05
Non-significant; P > 0.05
Biogeographical patterns of the living collections of the world’s botanic
gardens
Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
„Wealth“
„Garden“
„Flora“
„combined“