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Steve Goldbeck, Chief Deputy Director, San Francisco Bay Conservation & Development Commission, at the National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role" See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.us
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BCDC Regional Climate Strategy
Steve Goldbeck, Chief Deputy DirectorSan Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission
The Bay Plan Findings
Policies
Maps
Map Policies and Notes
San Francisco-observed sea level with trend of 19.3 cm (0.63 feet) per century
Source: California Climate Action Team Report 2006
Vulnerability Analysis
Identify Planning
Areas and Systems
ExistingChallenges
ProjectedImpacts
SensitivityAnalysis
AdaptiveCapacity
Scenarios SLR
16 inches (40 cm) of sea level rise at 50 years
55 inches (140 cm) at 100 years
Prepared by USGS (Knowles)
San Francisco International
Airport
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise andFifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch andFifty-five Inch Sea
Level Rise
South BayCentral
16” SLR
55” SLR
Silicon Valley
Sixteen Inch andFifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise andFifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Costs
$62 Billion replacement value SF Bay Area
$32 Billion for the rest of Ca shoreline
Area subject to high tide with 16 inches of sea level rise
Current 100-year flood plain
Today’s Flood isTomorrow’s High Tide
Public Discourse
Three-year process
35 public hearings
Met with local governments
Met with economic, equity & environmental groups
Vulnerability Analysis
Identify Planning
Areas and Systems
ExistingChallenges
ProjectedImpacts
SensitivityAnalysis
AdaptiveCapacity
Build for 2050, Plan for 2100Build for 2050, Plan for 2100
Joint Policy Committee
Council of Loocal Governments
Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Air Quality District
BCDC
Rising Tides Design Ideas Competition
www.risingtidescompetition.com
Corte Madera - today
Corte Madera - tomorrow
Phase 1 – Flooding today
Measure waves
High res topo & bathy
Adaptation
Head of Tide
Where saltwater meets sweetwater in tributaries
Extensive development
Bay Area Communities Working Together
The ART Subregion
ART Collaborative Project Management
San Francisco Bay Conservationand Development Commission
NOAA Coastal Services Center
U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
Metropolitan Transportation Commission
California Departmentof Transportation
ICLEI Local Governmentsfor Sustainability
Scope & Organize
New, Refined Sea Level Rise Vulnerability assement
Assess
ART Objectives
• Cross-sector and cross-jurisdiction adaptation planning framework
• Develop, test, and refine adaptation tools
• Assess adaptation at different scales– local, regional, state, federal
ART Assessment Frames
Social EquityEconomy Environment Governance
Port of Oakland Seaport
Key Vulnerabilities
•Most facilities not directly vulnerable to sea level rise
•Rail and interstate access is vulnerable in the near term
•Other seaports in the region do not have capacity to handle the cargo
