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Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, Senior Research Scientist, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Senior Research Scientist, Earth Institute at Columbia University Co-Chair Mayor Bloomberg’s Climate Change Commission Co-Director Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN); National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role" See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.us
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Key Climate Challenges for Coastal ZonesLessons from New York City and Hurricane Sandy
Cynthia RosenzweigNASA GISS/ Columbia University
National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure Symposium
Boston, MassachusettsNovember 12, 2013
Outline
• Climate Change Challenges in Coastal Zones
• New York City Adaptation Process
• Responding to Hurricane Sandy
• Sandy as Tipping Point
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Coastal ZonesKey Findings from Draft National Climate Assessment
• Coastal zones are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, inland flooding, and other climate-related changes.
• Climate change increases exposure of important assets, such as ports, tourism and fishing sites, in already-vulnerable coastal locations, threatening to disrupt economic activity beyond the coast and incurring significant costs for protecting or moving them.
• Socioeconomic disparities create uneven exposures and sensitivities to coastal risks and limit adaptation options for some coastal communities, resulting in the displacement of the most vulnerable from coastal areas.
Challenges of Multiple Jurisdictions From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v
From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v
High water levels, strong winds, and heavy precipitation from coastal storms already impact coastal areas.
Warming ocean waters raise sea level through thermal expansion which will result in more frequent and extensive coastal flooding and stronger coastal storms.
• Barrier islands are being significantly altered due to erosion, overwash and new inlets created by strong coastal storms
• Sea level rise will increase the risks to populations in low-lying coastal areas and will lead to permanent inundation of low-lying areas, more frequent storm surge flooding and increased beach erosion
• Loss of coastal wetlands and salt marshes will reduce species diversity
4ClimAID, 2011
Coastal ZonesKey Climate Impacts in the Northeast
ClimAID, 2011
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New York City Adaptation Process
Source: NPCC, 2010
Stakeholder Task Force
CCATF
City-wide Sustainability Office OLTPS
Expert PanelNPCC
CWW
P
T
E
Mayor
City Agencies- Regional Authorities- Private Stakeholders
Integration across
Sector-specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transportation (T)
- Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW)
- Communications (C)
University scholars and private sector experts
- Social, biological, and physical scientists
- Legal and insurance experts
- Risk management professionals
Leadership
Coordination
Implementation
Climate Science
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• In 2009, the Panel produced a set of climate projections specific to New York City region
• Full report published by New York Academy of Sciences in 2010
• New York City Codified NPCC in August 2012 legislation, requiring regular climate science updates
Mayor Bloomberg convened the First New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC1) in 2008. The NPCC – leading climate and social scientists and risk management experts – worked to identify future climate risks facing New York City
First New York City Panel on Climate Change
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Flexible Adaptation Pathways
Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue
Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response
Source: NPCC, 2010
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1. Identify current and future climate hazards
2. Conduct inventory of infrastructure and assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities
3. Characterize risk
4. Develop initial list of strategies
5. Identify opportunities for coordination
6. Prioritize strategies
7. Prepare and implement Resilience Plans
8. Monitor and reassess
Steps – Assess and Implement
NPCC, 2010
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Framing Adaptation
Types• Management/operations• Infrastructure – physical
components of each sector• PolicyAdministrative Groups• Private vs. public
organizations• Local/municipal, county,
state, national
• Reduce the level of physical, social, and economic impacts of climate
• Take advantage of new opportunities
Level of Efforts• Incremental action• Large-scale shifts
Timing• Short term <5 yrs; medium term
5-15 yrs; long term >15 years• Abrupt Changes - tipping
points/policy triggers
ClimAID, 2011
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Pre-Hurricane Sandy Adaptation Actions
NPCC, 2013
• Actions already underway in New York City to mitigate the impacts of climate risks– Planting over 300 Greenstreets,
vegetation that absorbs stormwater – Securing citywide high-resolution
LiDAR elevation data, which helps to identify the most vulnerable area
– Incorporating sea level rise into the City's Comprehensive Waterfront Plan
– NYC Office of Emergency Management launched enhanced emergency response and preparedness programs
• Post Sandy intensifying efforts
Hurricane Sandy
• Storm timing coincided almost exactly with astronomically high, high tide
• Tropical-storm-force winds extended 1,000 miles from end to end, making it more than three times the size of Hurricane Katrina
• Storm surge combined with high tide created a “storm tide” of over 14 feet above Mean Lower Low Water at the Battery
• Unusual storm track, Sandy turned sharply west just as it was reaching another peak of intensity
Storm Forecast Well In Advance 11SIRR, 2013CCSR, 2013
Hurricane SandyLinks to Climate Change Science
Median Minimum Sea Ice Extent 1979-2009
• It is not possible to attribute any single extreme event such as Hurricane Sandy to climate change
• Sea level rise already occurring in the New York City area (~1.1 feet since 1900), in part related to climate change, increased the extent and magnitude of coastal flooding during the storm
• Intensity of severe hurricanes appears to be on rise and may increase in future***
• Melting sea-ice may be changing pattern of jet stream, making westward-turning storm tracks more likely***
***Areas of active research
Sea level rise at Battery, NYC 1900-2009, NPCC
North Atlantic SSTs and Hurricane Power Dissipation Index 1950-2005, Emanuel
Sources: CCSR, 2013 12
New York City issued mandatory evacuation of Zone A on October 28, 2012
Out-of-state utility crews brought in before the storm
MTA closed down operations, moved rolling
stock, and boarded and placed sandbags at
subway entrances to protect against flooding
Evacuation – Not complete 43 people died in NYC 80%
from drowningUtilities – Not prepared
4 million without power in the tri-state region
MTA/DOT – Major flooding7 subway lines under East River,
3 tunnels closed
MTA
LIPA
Hurricane Sandy Immediate Preparations
13SIRR, 2013
Climate Change and a Global City 2001
The Potential Consequences of
Climate Variability and Change
Metro East Coast (MEC) July 2001
Hurricane Sandy Forecasting the Impacts
South Ferry Subway Station
Beach erosion and boardwalk damage in the Rockaways
Extensive power outages
Many impacts forecast well in advance
Spencer Platt Getty Images
Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems
and Vulnerable Communities
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Hard-hit areas
Sources: CCSR, 2013, MTA, 2012
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Hurricane Sandy Unforeseen Impacts
• Hospital Evacuations– Flooding and power outages forced the
evacuation of 6,500 people from nursing homes and hospitals
• Gas Shortages– Severe breakdowns in the supply chain serving
New York caused by storm damage to coastal infrastructure led to fuel shortages that lasted weeks
• Fires– Over 100 homes and businesses were destroyed
by fire, often electrical in nature, sparked by the interaction of electricity and seawater. Narrowly flooded streets hampered emergency response.
SIRR, 2013
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• The 2013 NPCC Climate Risk Information Report (CRI) provides new climate change projections and future coastal flood risk maps for New York City
• Both “A Stronger, More Resilient New York” and CRI reports released on June 11, 2013
After Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg re-convened the NPCC in January to provide updated climate risk information for the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR)
Second New York City Panel on Climate Change
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Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast
• CCRUN conducts stakeholder-driven research that reduces climate-related vulnerability and advances opportunities for adaptation in the urban Northeast
• CCRUN scientists lead the technical team that developed the projections for the NPCC2 report
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• Illustrate a broad-based acceleration of climate change in coming decades
• Show significant climate risks for New York City, especially heat waves, extreme precipitation events, and coastal flooding
• Valid for New York City and the metropolitan region
• By 2050s, projected changes include– Annual temperature increase up to 6.5°F– Mean precipitation change between +5 and +10 percent– Sea level rise up to 31 inches – 1-in-100 year flood may occur approximately 5 times more often
with the high-estimate for sea level rise – More likely than not increase in the number of the most intense
hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin. – Unknown how the total number of tropical cyclones will change in
the North Atlantic Basin
Recently released (June 2013) climate change projections…
Key Findings for Future Projected Changes
NPCC, 2013
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• Increase coastal edge elevations – The City will increase the height of vulnerable coastal edges with bulkheads,
beach nourishment and other measures over time
• Minimize upland wave zones – The City will work to provide significant attenuation of waves—that is, to
knock down waves, or diminish their velocity—both off and onshore, before they reach neighborhoods
• Protect against storm surge– The City will use flood protection structures, such as floodwalls, levees, and
local storm surge barriers built, where possible, to the 100-year flood elevation with an additional allowance for future sea level rise
• Improve coastal design– The City will study how natural areas and open space can be used to protect
adjacent neighborhoods and maintain neighborhood quality of life, and will work to manage its own waterfront assets more effectively
• Governance – Developing partnerships to improve permitting and study innovative coastal
protections.
NYC SIRR Key Findings for Coastal Protection
SIRR, 2013
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NYC SIRR Key Findings for Insurance
• Strategy: Target affordability solutions to low-income policyholders– The combined impact of Biggert-Waters and the remapping of New York
City’s floodplain will result in significant increases in flood insurance premiums, which many New Yorkers, especially the city’s most vulnerable populations—including those with low, or on fixed, incomes—will not be able to afford.
• Strategy: Define resiliency standards for existing buildings– Sandy highlighted the limited information currently available on risk-
reduction techniques short of elevation, which is impractical, financially infeasible or physically impossible for building types common in New York City and other dense urban areas.
• Strategy: Incorporate resiliency standards in insurance underwriting– Measures that reduce a property’s risk of damage should be reflected in a
commensurate reduction in the cost of insurance
• Strategy: Expand pricing options for policyholders– Flexible pricing options can encourage more people, especially those not
required to carry insurance, to purchase coverage that suits their needs.
• Strategy: Improve awareness and education about insurance– Consumers must be aware of both their risks and the coverage their
insurance policies include or exclude.SIRR, 2013
Hurricane Sandy as Tipping Point
• Leadership in responding to climate change
• Municipal, state, and federal alignment
• Climate science in place and in time
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Need for federal coordination that recognizes local and state initiatives
References and Links• Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (www.ccrun.org)• NYSERDA ClimAID (www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid) • New York City Panel on Climate Change report available online at (
www.nyas.org) • Urban Climate Change Research Network (www.uccrn.org) • ClimateYou (www.climateyou.org)
– “Learn, Share, Act” about climate change
NPCC
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