Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI

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  1. 1. Water Scarcity and Food Security: Challenges, Scenarios, and Policy Responses Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Water Policy for Food Security: A Global Conference World Food Center University of California-Davis October 5-6, 2015
  2. 2. Outline Challenges for Water and Food Security Scenario Modeling Methodology Alternative Food and Water Scenarios to 2050 Conclusions: Policies for Water and Food Security
  3. 3. Challenges for Water and Food Security
  4. 4. www.ifpri.org Increasing Population and Demographic Shifts World population (billions) Source: Data from UN 2011 Population change by region, 2010-2100 (millions) Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food 0 2 4 6 8 10 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Total Rural Urban 9.3 billion Source: UN 2011 Africa: Youthful Asia & Europe: Ageing
  5. 5. www.ifpri.org 0 10 20 30 40 50 OECD Developing countries Rising Incomes and Demand and Diet Changes 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2000 2010 2020 2030 World Developing Countries Source: OECD-FAO 2012 GDP per capita $US (000s) Source: ERS-USDA 2012 Change in consumption of agric. products 2009- 11 to 2021 (%)
  6. 6. www.ifpri.org Page 7 Would reduction in meat consumption in richer countries improve food security in developing countries? Source: Rosegrant 2012 Economic Growth and Meat Consumption
  7. 7. www.ifpri.org Dietary Change? Water is Gaining on Soda Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Galloonspercapita
  8. 8. www.ifpri.org Supply drivers Climate change and variability Water and land scarcity Competition with biofuels Investment in agricultural research Science and technology policy Discovery, development, delivery Intellectual property rights, regulatory systems, extension http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/ images/btcotton_rice.jpg http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/200 40721/har.jpg Supply-side Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
  9. 9. www.ifpri.org Whither Oil Prices / Biofuel Expansion? Oil prices are highly correlated to food prices Rising oil prices make biofuels more profitable Global biofuel production projected to almost double from 2009-11 to 2021 Cereal use for biofuels to rise by 7% annuallycompared to 1.5% for food and feed 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12 Food Oil Source: Data from IMF 2012 Oil and food prices, 2006-12 (2005 = 100) Biofuel production, 1996-2021 (billion liters) Source: Data from OECD-FAO Outlook 2012 0 20 40 60 80 100 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 EU-27 USA Brazil Source: OECD/FAO 2012 Source: Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008
  10. 10. Challenges for Water Policy Increasing costs of developing new water and delivering developed water; need for efficient use of developed water Wasteful use of already developed supplies encouraged by subsidies and distorted incentives that influence water use Depletion of groundwater, water pollution, declining water quality, and degradation of water-related ecosystems Climate change, extreme weather and variable energy prices Future role of hydropower and multipurpose dams
  11. 11. www.ifpri.org Change (%) in average annual runoff across the regions of the world Source: World Bank WDR 2010
  12. 12. www.ifpri.org Change in consecutive number of dry days across regions of the world Source: WB WDR 2010. Longer dry spells
  13. 13. www.ifpri.org Change in rainfall intensity across regions of the world Source: WB WDR 2010. More intense rainfall
  14. 14. Scenario Modeling Methodology
  15. 15. The IMPACT3 Modeling Suite Linked system of hydrological, water use, crop simulation, and partial equilibrium economic models IMPACT IMPACT Global Hydrological Model IMPACT Water Simulation Model DSSAT Crop Models GCM Climate Forcing Effective P Potential ET IRW Irrigation Water Demand & Supply Crop Management WATER STRESS Pop & GDP growth Area & yield growth Food Projections Crop area / livestock numbers, yields, and production Agricultural commodity demand Agricultural commodity trade and prices Hunger and Mal- nourishment Water Projections Water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock and irrigation users Water supply reliability
  16. 16. www.ifpri.org IMPACT Spatial Resolution 159 Countries 154 Water Basins 320 Food Production Units
  17. 17. Alternative Food and Water Scenarios to 2050
  18. 18. www.ifpri.org IMPACT Baseline Suite NoCC Historical climate Four GCMs, IPCC-AR5, with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 IPSL, Hadley, MIROC, GFDL Climate Change Business As Usual (BAU) with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2
  19. 19. www.ifpri.org Rainfed Maize: Global mean yields projected 30% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5) Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  20. 20. www.ifpri.org Irrigated Rice: Global mean yields projected 12% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5) Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  21. 21. www.ifpri.org Rainfed Wheat: Global mean yields projected 4.0% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5) Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  22. 22. www.ifpri.org Cereals - most severe global impacts of climate change on prices: 25% increase compared to NoCC in 2050; 50% higher than 2010 Meat - relatively modest 5% impact (indirect) of CC Cereals Meats Indexed Global Prices BAU Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
  23. 23. www.ifpri.org Fruits and vegetables, pulses, and roots and tubers: 9% to 12% increase with CC in 2050 (about 30% above 2010 levels) Roots & Tubers Pulses Indexed Global Prices BAU Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
  24. 24. www.ifpri.org Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015 EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
  25. 25. Bioeconomy Scenario Description Annual productivity growth increases by average across crops of 0.23 percentage points and 0.20 percentage points for livestock Water use efficiency - assumed to improve in each sector: Domestic sector: average global efficiency improvement = 45% in 2050 compared to BAU Industrial sector: average global efficiency increase = 43% by 2050 compared to BAU Smaller efficiency gains for irrigation sector Average global efficiency gains = 15% in 2050 compared to BAU
  26. 26. Bioeconomy Scenario Description Efficiency gains for industrial and residential water use taken from WaterGAP model (Ozkaynak et al. 2012); irrigation sector by IFPRI Underlying assumptions of water use efficiency gains Efficiency measures in industry and residential water use and climate policies lead to recycling and reduced demand for thermal cooling in power generation as fossil-fuel-powered plants are more rapidly replaced by renewable energy sources For agriculture, basin water use efficiency gains are based on more efficient transpiration and reduced water losses drought resistant varieties and other advances in research and biotechnology reduced non-beneficial ET reduced losses to water sinks (e.g. due to water-conserving irrigation and crop management technologies and reduced evaporative losses during conveyance)
  27. 27. Bioeconomy Scenario Description Impact of faster technological change - commercial scale second generation biofuels start 5 years earlier than Business As Usual (BAU) (2025 rather than 2030); reducing demand for first generation feedstocks GDP growth increased relative to BAU to reflect increased productivity in agricultural and water sectors CGE model GTEM (Ahammad and Mi 2005) used iteratively with IMPACT to generate multiplier effects from agricultural and water sector productivity growth to GDP growth Globally, GDP growth increases from 3.2% per year under BAU to 3.6% per year under Bioeconomy Scenario
  28. 28. Total consumptive water use (km3/yr) under Business As Usual and Bioeconomy Scenarios in 2000, 2030 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (2012). Region 2000 2030 2050 BAU BIO Change vs. BAU (%) BAU BIO Change vs. BAU (%) East Asia & Pacific 428.5 493.4 476.2 -3.5 588.8 508.9 -13.6 Europe & Central Asia 100.6 158.2 118.8 -24.9 219.3 121.3 -44.7 Latin America & Caribbean 113.5 160.0 142.0 -11.3 188.4 149.3 -20.8 Middle East & North Africa 72.7 96.6 90.5 -6.3 105.1 96.1 -8.6 South Asia 502.8 608.7 592.8 -2.6 693.3 663.1 -4.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 50.5 100.5 90.2 -10.2 139.5 114.1 -18.2 North America 146.4 184.7 161.3 -12.7 218.6 159.9 -26.9 NAFTA 180.0 225.7 198.0 -12.3 262.7 196.0 -25.4 Europe Developed 48.7 57.9 44.3 -23.4 66.4 40.1 -39.6 Developed 235.3 289.0 246.9 -14.6 331.6 237.7 -28.3 Developing 1269.0 1617.4 1510.6 -6.6 1934.4 1652.8 -14.6 World 1504.3 1906.4 1757.5 -7.8 2266.0 1890.6 -16.6
  29. 29. www.ifpri.org Change in Irrigation Water Consumption Bioeconomy Scenario Compared to BAU (%) -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 EastAsiaPacific EuropeCentralAsia LatinAmericaCaribbean MiddleEastNorthAfrica SouthAsia SubSaharanAfrica NorthAmerica NAFTA EuropeDeveloped Developed Developing World 2050 2030 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b
  30. 30. Irrigation Water Supply Reliability under BAU and Bioeconomy in 2000, 2030, 2050 Region 2000 2030 2050 BAU BIO BAU BIO East Asia & Pacific 0.754 0.631 0.714 0.554 0.675 Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0.668 0.617 0.666 0.515 0.655 Latin America & Caribbean 0.911 0.933 0.954 0.936 0.973 Middle East & North Africa 0.986 0.975 0.978 0.972 0.975 South Asia 0.706 0.622 0.679 0.517 0.645 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.825 0.747 0.785 0.715 0.780 North America 0.978 0.984 0.990 0.987 1.000 NAFTA 0