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LDASLDASLDASLDAS----MarocMarocMarocMaroc ProjectProjectProjectProjectContribution to improving water resources management

and climate change adaptations

Drought monitoring in Morocco

October 29,2015

GSFC

Noureddine BIJABERNoureddine BIJABERNoureddine BIJABERNoureddine BIJABER

Royal Centre for Remote Sensing, Rabat, Morocco, bijaber@crts.gov.ma

Summary

• Generalities

• Objectives

• Methodology

• Results

• Validation

• Conclusion & perspectives

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• Importance of Agriculture in GDP• 14 à 20% of GDP

• 43% of total jobs and 78% of jobs in rural areas

• Low annual precipitation level and strong inter and intra annual variability;

- Low quantities

- Concentrated in few days,

- Temporal irregularity (seasons, years) and unequally distributed in space.

• Dominance of non irrigated agriculture (>80% SAU) ;

Generalities

Drought vulnerability has negative impacts on other sectors

Objectives

Elaboration of a DEWS based on indicators in order

to reduce the agricultural vulnerability to Climate

Changes.

Specifically:

- National capacity building in DEW (training / expertise).

- Development of methodologies based on the generation, analysis and dissemination of indicators about drought at national scale.

- Edition & diffusion of bulletins informing on drought.

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Met

ho

do

log

yM

eth

od

olo

gy CHIRPS NDVIa ETaLSTday_night

Climate Hazard Group MODIS FEWSNET

Re sampling 5 km Grill

SQL DB

(history + updates)

CHIRPS / NDVIa / Eta / LST

SPI calculate

Ranking (Percentile)

SPI NDVIa ETa LSTday_night

CDI calculate

CDI (monthly)

Web delivery

(Dissemination

platform)

25,588 grid points (5km cells)

1,592 grid points (5km cells)

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Input data : precipitations

CHIRPS : Climate Hazards Group InfraRedPrecipitation with Station dataCHIRPS incorporates 0.05° resolution Infrared satellite imagery with in-situ station data to create gridded rainfall time series for trend analysis and seasonal drought monitoring.

Input data : Soil moisture

MODIS Day-Night LST Difference as SM Proxy

• Wet surface heat up slower than dry surface.

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Input data : Vegetation index

FEWSNET : Famine Early Warning System Network

• NDVI anomaly = general vegetation health indicator

Input data : Evapotranspiration

FEWSNET : Famine Early Warning System Network

Actual ET is produced using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model since 2003.

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SM/LST day-nightSPI from CHIRPS MODIS ETa NDVI-a/MODIS

CompositeDrought Index

Exceptional Drought:(once per 50+ years)Extreme Drought:(once per 20 to 50 years)Severe Drought:(once per 10 to 20 years)Moderate Drought:(once per 5 to 10 years)

CDI tool

LST data processing PreprocessingData download SPI generator Rank, DB insertion Weighting CDI calculate Components maps

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CDI : Drought classes

CDI : Wetness classes

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Comparison Dry year vs. wet year

CDI March 2010 CDI March 2012

SPI Mars 2010 LST Mars 2010 NDVIa Mars 2010 ETa Mars 2010

SPI Mars 2012 LST Mars 2012 NDVIa Mars 2012 ETa Mars 2012

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Validations

1. Retrospective evaluation for past drought events via historical data records :

- Comparison with historical in situ measurements (crop yields).

- Historic of precipitation .

- …

Validations

2. Establishment of a network of evaluators (survey) :

- Evaluation of current drought conditions.

- Identification of past drought events and comparison with generated CDI maps.

- …

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Validations

Web delivery: dissemination platform

Internet portal for data access and distribution

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The specific data inputs were selected using several criteria that include:

• data access, reliability, and long-term availability

• commonly accepted and used variables by the global community for agricultural drought monitoring that can be combined into a customized CDI

• Future satellite missions planned to sustain a specific data input

Conclusion

In Morocco, drought is

- frequentphenomenon,

- concerns a large areas,

-Complexphenomenon and result from interaction between several parameters.

And, it is very difficult to study and monitor this phenomenon without a global observationof the affected areas.

The work is just beginning

Perspectives / Recommendations

Spatial Resolution to be improved

CDI Periodicity to be improved

Evaluators network / validation

End users Implication :comments, …