1. FINAL TRANSCRIPT DOV - Q3 2008 Dover Corporation Earnings
Conference Call Event Date/Time: Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM ET
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2. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS Paul
Goldberg Dover Corporation - Treasurer & Director of IR Ron
Hoffman Dover Corporation - CEO Rob Kuhbach Dover Corporation - VP,
Finance & CFO Bob Livingston Dover Corporation - President and
COO CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS Nigel Coe Deutsche Bank - Analyst
John Inch Merrill Lynch - Analyst Robert McCarthy Robert Baird -
Analyst Terry Darling Goldman Sachs - Analyst Scott Davis Morgan
Stanley - Analyst Wendy Caplan Wachovia Securities - Analyst Alex
Blanton Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst Steve Tusa JPMorgan -
Analyst PRESENTATION Operator Good morning, and welcome to the
third-quarter 2008 Dover Corporation earnings conference call. With
us today are Ron Hoffman, Chief Executive Officer of Dover
Corporation; Bob Livingston, President and Chief Operating Officer
of Dover Corporation; Rob Kuhbach, Vice President of Finance and
Chief Financial Officer of Dover Corporation; and Paul Goldberg,
Treasurer and Director of Investor Relations of Dover Corporation.
After the speakers' opening remarks, there will be a
question-and-answer period. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder,
ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded and
your participation implies consent to our recording of this call.
If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this
time. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Paul
Goldberg. Mr. Goldberg, please go ahead, sir. www.streetevents.com
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3. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call Paul Goldberg - Dover
Corporation - Treasurer & Director of IR Thank you, Kelly. Good
morning, and welcome to Dover's third-quarter earnings call. With
me today are Ron Hoffman, Dover's Chief Executive Officer; Bob
Livingston, Dover's President and Chief Operating Officer; and Rob
Kuhbach, our VP of Finance and CFO. Today's call will begin with
some comments from Ron, Rob and Bob on Dover's operating and
financial performance. We will then open the call up to questions.
In the interest of time, we kindly ask that you limit yourself to
one question with a follow-up. Please note that our current
earnings release, investor supplement, and associated presentation
can be found on our website, www.DoverCorporation.com. This call
will be available for playback through 5 PM on November 5th, and
the audio portion of this call will be archived on our website for
three months. The replay telephone number is 1-800-642-1687. When
accessing the playback, you will need to supply the following
reservation code, 66431188. Before we get started, I'd like to
remind everyone that our comments today, which are intended to
supplement your understanding of Dover, may contain certain
forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to
uncertainties. We caution everyone to be guided in their analysis
of Dover Corporation by referring to our Form 10-K for a list of
factors that could cause our results to differ from those
anticipated in any forward-looking statements. Also, we undertake
no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements except as required by law. I also direct your attention
to our website where considerably more information can be found.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Ron. Ron Hoffman -
Dover Corporation - CEO Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Thank
you for joining today's conference call. It has been a very
challenging financial and business climate since our last
conference call. In these unstable times, we believe companies like
Dover, with a strong balance sheet, high-quality earnings, proven
capital allocation discipline, and the vision for profitable future
growth will be best positioned to weather turbulent economic times.
Today, Dover reported solid third-quarter results. Diluted earnings
per share from continuing operations were $1.01, up 13% over the
prior year and the first quarterly three-digit EPS in Dover's
history. Third-quarter revenues were $2 billion, up 5% over the
previous year with net earnings from continuing operations up 5% to
$190 million. Year to date, revenue was $5.8 billion, up 8% while
net earnings from continuing operations was $525 million, up 6%.
Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the year
were $2.76, up 14% over the previous year. Our operating companies
continued their relentless pursuit of attaining the Dover metrics.
Operating margin for the quarter was 15.9%, up 30 basis points over
the prior year, reflecting strong leverage of Electronic
Technologies and Fluid Management. We posted our best working
capital to sales of 18.4%, driven by record inventory turns of 7.0.
Dover's inventory turns have improved each of the past four years,
and are among the best in our peer group. These results give us
great confidence that our management teams are properly focused on
internal improvement initiatives that will continue to be enhanced
with our focus on synergy capture. Bookings for the quarter were
$1.9 billion, up 5% over the previous year, led by strong growth at
the Energy, Fluid Solutions, and Material Handling platforms.
Monthly bookings during the quarter rebounded in September after a
weak August. Backlog was $1.5 billion, down 4% from last year, but
up 3% from 2007 year end. Dover's 5.4% quarterly revenue growth
consisted of 2.8% organic growth. Net acquisitions accounted for
0.8 of a percent, and the impact of foreign exchange was 1.8%.
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4. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call Organic growth for the full
year is 3.6%. Dover generated very strong quarterly free cash flow
of $306 million or 15.6% of revenue, driven by increased earnings,
continued improvements in working capital, and lower cash tax
payments. Year to date, we have generated $607 million of free cash
flow, up 42%. From a strategic capital allocation perspective,
Dover repurchased $114 million of Dover's stock during the quarter
and completed its previously announced $500 million share
repurchase program. Over the past 12 months, Dover has repurchased
$1 billion of shares and reduced its share count by approximately
10%. During the third quarter, we increased our quarterly dividend
by 25% to $0.25 per share. This marked the 54th year in a row that
Dover has increased its annual dividend. Dover continues to be
highly disciplined in evaluating potential acquisitions as we focus
on synergistic add-ons within our targeted platforms and segments.
We are reviewing a number of acquisition opportunities, but none
were closed in the third quarter. Acquisitions are and will remain
a key component of Dover's growth strategy and we are encouraged by
our pipeline of opportunities. Dover's conservative financial
posture, solid balance sheet, and strong cash generation has served
our shareholders well during the current credit crisis. Our strong
A1/P1 credit rating has allowed Dover to roll its commercial paper
on a consistent and timely basis, and issue CP at rates that are
significantly lower than LIBOR-based bank borrowings. Our current
CP balance of $375 million is supported by a $1 billion five-year
credit facility that doesn't expire until 2012. Overall, we're
confident in our ability to fund the growth of our ongoing
business, and believe our strong credit and liquidity profile is a
competitive advantage for funding our future growth initiatives.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Kuhbach so he can
update you on our segment performance. Rob Kuhbach - Dover
Corporation - VP, Finance & CFO Thanks, Ron. Good morning,
everyone. I would like to quickly run through our segment
performance this morning, and then cover some additional financial
information. At the Industrial Products segment, sales were $630
million, up 6% over last year, with earnings of $75 million, down
4% from the third quarter of '07. Operating margin was 11.9%, down
120 basis points from last year, largely driven by moderating
market conditions and restructuring charges. Within Industrial
Products, sales in our Material Handling platform increased 4%
while earnings decreased 4%. The revenue growth largely reflected
recent acquisitions, and the earnings performance was primarily
driven by soft auto and construction markets, and a significant
ongoing restructuring at Paladin. This restructuring effort will
enhance Paladin's competitive position in the challenging
infrastructure markets it serves. Material Handling's military and
energy-related markets should continue to perform well, but we do
not anticipate any meaningful improvement in its automotive or
construction businesses for the balance of the year. The Mobile
Equipment platform recorded 9% higher sales with earnings up 2%.
This sales improvement was driven by continued strength in solid
waste and military trailer markets, offset by declining sales in
the automotive service sector and weak North American tank trailer
demand. While we do expect the auto service sector to continue to
be challenged as we finish the year, we believe strong orders with
military and solid waste customers will buoy this platform. Turning
to the Engineered Systems segment, sales were $525 million, and
earnings were $82 million, both down 3% from last year, producing
an operating margin of 15.6%, unchanged over the prior year and up
70 basis points sequentially. Our product identification platform,
again, was a solid performer with sales of 3% while earnings were
2% lower, largely reflecting product mix and the impact of foreign
currency. Our direct coating business continues to be a consistent
performer with over 50% of its sales coming from consumables.
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5. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call The engineered products
platform, although posting a decrease in both sales and earnings
year over year of 7% and 8%, respectively, held its operating
margins at 15.5%. As expected, most of the Food Equipment and
packaging companies had lower sales and earnings, partially offset
by strong revenue growth at our heat exchanger business. Our
expectation is that these trends will continue through the fourth
quarter. Turning to our Fluid Management segment, results continue
to be strong with revenue of $452 million, up 21% over last year,
reflecting organic growth of 15.6% for the quarter. Third-quarter
earnings of $102 million were up 29% over the prior-year period,
and operating margins were 22.6%, up 150 basis points over last
year, and 70 basis points sequentially. Our energy platform
continues to perform at an exceptionally high level across all
companies. Third-quarter revenue increased 26% and earnings for the
platform increased 38%. Globally, strong oil and gas consumption
trends and new power generation products continue to provide a
positive climate and outlook for these companies. Although
double-digit sales and earnings gains over the prior year were
again posted at all energy companies, we do expect these trends to
moderate during the balance of the year. The Fluid Solutions
platform posted strong quarterly revenue and earnings gains of 14%
and 20%, respectively. Global demand for pumps and downstream
fueling products continue to drive this platform. Additionally, the
benefits from the formation and integration of our Pump Solutions
Group will bolster future performance. Although demand has begun to
slow in some end markets, we believe that the year will end on a
strong note, thanks to a healthy backlog and effective internal
profit improvement programs. The Electronic Technologies segment
had another solid quarter. While revenue was $362 million,
essentially flat with last year, earnings were $54 million, up 6%
and margin was 14.9%, an improvement of 90 basis points
year-over-year and 150 basis points sequentially. Knowles was once
again the leading performer for electronic technologies. Overall,
we continue to see solid demand for hearing aid components and
growth in MEMS microphones and military products. The balance of
our markets experienced spotty demand, and we are not anticipating
any improvement in business levels in the printed circuit board and
semiconductor markets in the fourth quarter. As this summary
indicates, Dover's third-quarter results reflected a very strong
performance at Fluid Management with support from Electronic
Technologies, which more than offset modest year-over-year declines
at the Industrial Products and Engineered Systems segments.
Bookings and backlogs are generally consistent with these results.
Regarding geographic sales, Dover's mix versus the prior quarter
remained essentially unchanged. Sequentially, European and Asian
revenue moderated slightly during the third quarter, reflecting the
impact of currency translation, as well as softnesses in select
markets, particularly automotive and specialty packaging equipment.
With respect to restructuring initiatives, we continue to do the
right things across our segments. During the third quarter, we
effectively absorbed about $6 million in restructuring expenses.
Year-to-date, these efforts have cost $13 million. We do expect
fourth-quarter restructuring costs to be similar to those of the
third quarter, and we anticipate the payback from these efforts
will be less than 12 months. Further, our operating companies are
fully prepared to take additional actions, should conditions
warrant. Having reviewed the segments, I would like to briefly
provide some additional financial data. Third-quarter interest
expense was roughly $26 million, up from $22.5 million last year.
This reflects the incremental debt related to our share repurchase
activities. Our net debt to total capitalization was 27.4%, which
was essentially flat to prior year end. Year-to-date CapEx was $133
million, basically flat with last year, driven largely by
investment in the energy platform. We do expect to see CapEx
spending moderate over the fourth quarter. www.streetevents.com
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6. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call Turning to taxes, our
third-quarter rate was 25.7%, down 90 basis points from last year,
reflecting benefits from settled tax positions and higher earnings
in lower tax jurisdictions. We continue to expect the full-year
rate to be between 26% and 27%, reflecting the recently enacted
retroactive extension of the federal R&E credit. Corporate
expenses were higher, reflecting increased consulting and discrete
management transition costs. With that, I would like to turn this
call over to Bob Livingston, who will update you on the key
initiatives taking place across Dover. Bob Livingston - Dover
Corporation - President and COO Thanks, Rob. Good morning,
everyone. When I spoke to you last quarter, I said we would be
pushing an agenda of synergy capture across Dover and keeping a
close eye on material cost escalation. I would like to update you
on our progress on both fronts, and comment on additional programs
we are implementing to help drive shareholder value. These
structural initiatives are more important than ever as we face a
slowing global economy, a slowdown that we are not immune to. At
our November 2007 Dover Day meeting, we committed to $40 million to
$60 million of earnings improvements in the '08, '09 timeframe from
leverage and synergy opportunities. I am pleased to report that
these initiatives are very much on track. The integration of
Markem-Imaje is entering its final phase, focused on ERP
consolidation and back office synergies. Fully one-third of the
aforementioned earnings improvement commitment is being delivered
by the Markem-Imaje integration. It should also be noted that
Markem-Imaje has continued to post several consecutive quarters of
year-over-year revenue growth, while executing on this global
integration. The integration of Norris and Alberta Oil Tool,
significant business units within our energy platform, is also
proceeding on schedule. This initiative has not only reduced costs
and improved yields, but has provided a significant increase in
production output and capacity. The Pump Solutions Group is a
combination of two longtime Dover companies, Wilden and Blackburn,
and the 2008 add-on acquisitions, Neptune and Griswold. The synergy
opportunities resulting from this combination and integration
activity are not just limited to supply chain and plant
rationalization. We are very enthused by the revenue synergy
opportunities at PSG. Bottom line, we are confident the synergy
benefits will exceed our initial targets. We haven't defined
additional business combinations and integration initiatives which
will offer incremental benefits beyond those previously described.
In the third quarter, our synergistic activities, including
business integration and procurement initiatives, resulted in a
$0.05 EPS benefit and year to date, that number is $0.11. On the
materials front, the quarter unfolded much the way we thought it
would. Material costs, especially steel, continued to climb for the
first two months of the quarter and began to moderate during
September. Our pricing initiatives of the past few quarters,
including the most recent, have enabled us to largely cover our
increased commodity costs, although contractual obligations and
competitive situations preclude 100% coverage. Going forward, we
expect a continuing moderation of material costs, reflecting the
weakening global economy. We are also implementing other value
creating initiatives within Dover. One key initiative is a
comprehensive review of our procurement and supply chain processes.
This project will identify sourcing and supply chain opportunities
beyond those currently being pursued within the four segments. This
initiative is rolling out across Dover and involves significant
effort in the form of data capture, analytics, and training. We
expect a potential earnings contribution of this program to be on a
scale similar to the synergy initiatives we discussed last year at
Dover day. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 5 2008 Thomson
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7. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call Another key program we are
implementing is a formal processing toolkit for post-merger
integration or PMI. Dover has a positive track record of
integrating companies, including integrations at Waukesha and Tulsa
Winch and the more recent activities at Microwave Products Group,
Vectron, and Markem-Imaje. Building on these experiences, we now
have a standardized process of planning and managing, acquisition
integrations, and measuring the results. The tools and processes of
our new PMI program will measurably improve the success of our
acquisition program. In summary, we have an agenda of leverage and
leadership. We will leverage the significant scale of Dover to
insure we optimize the results and activities of our businesses.
Leadership is the engine that drives our success forward. Through
empowerment, quick decision-making, and wise judgment, our leaders
have shown their metal by already taking significant steps in
anticipation of the slowdown. We have reduced workforces where
necessary, eliminated excess capacity, and cut discretionary costs
where applicable. Our focus on leverage and leadership will
continue to drive value creation for our shareholders. With that
update, I will now turn it back to Ron. Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO Thanks, Bob, for that great report on our
internal initiatives that will drive future shareholder value for
Dover. I believe you are thinking about all the right things,
especially synergy capture, leverage, and leadership. Looking
forward, Dover, along with every other industrial company, is
concerned about the slowing global economy. We are feeling an
economic slowdown in many facets of our business, such as auto
service, food service equipment, and construction-related
equipment. As we analyze Dover's preparedness to deal with changes
in economy, we are very pleased that we completely realigned our
business portfolio over the past three years and targeted global
companies that serve a very broad customer base with recurring
revenues. We expect our unique broad-based energy platform to
continue to lead Dover's value creation. Our product identification
platform is best in class and our Fluid Solutions platform has a
strong global footprint. Our businesses that supply defense-related
products such as Warn, Tulsa Winch, Microwave Products Group,
Sergeant, and Heil Trailer, will provide some buffer to the
economic cycle. Exciting new product design wins in the cell phone
and audio headphone markets will continue to drive future growth at
Knowles. New solar and power generation applications DEK to
Waukesha Bearings. New products that support the sustainability
initiatives of customers at Hill PHOENIX, Marathon, and Hydro will
fuel our future growth. Combined with these new product development
activities, our business leaders are displaying their leadership by
taking the necessary actions to minimize the impact of a slowing
economy. We can already see the benefits of these decisions in our
improved operating margins, strong cash generation, and enhanced
working capital statistics. The strong focus on synergy capture and
the key business improvement initiatives, as outlined by Bob, will
optimize the future results of Dover. The fourth quarter will have
unique challenges, but I remain confident that Dover will deliver
on our earlier guidance of 12% annual EPS growth for 2008. In
closing, I want to recognize the retirement of Bob Tyre, Dover's
Vice President of Corporate Development, who has been the point man
for Dover's acquisition program for the last 14 years. Many of the
current Dover companies are here today due to Bob's expertise and
guidance. Bob's unwavering commitment to Dover will surely be
missed and we wish him much health and happiness in his retirement.
Assuming Bob's responsibilities for our M&A program will be
Steve Sellhausen, who was hired in March. Steve brings extensive
M&A experience and is already fully engaged in leading our
acquisition activity. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 6 2008
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8. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call Lastly, I want to sincerely
thank all the Dover employees who have worked very hard to produce
our results, and I'm confident that they will embrace the changes
necessary to drive future growth at Dover. With that, I'll turn it
back to Paul Goldberg for questions. Paul Goldberg - Dover
Corporation - Treasurer & Director of IR Thanks, Ron. At this
point, I would like to ask Kelly to compile the questions and just
quickly remind you that we would like you to limit your questions
to one with a follow-up so we can get everybody's questions
answered. Kelly, please compile the questions. Operator (Operator
Instructions). Nigel Coe, Deutsche Bank. Nigel Coe - Deutsche Bank
- Analyst Nice margin performance this quarter, by the way. So on
the energy front, it obviously goes from strength to strength that
[Ray] drove the performance this quarter. You talk about some
moderation in 4Q. You'd be aware there's a lot of concern about
'09. Can you just maybe add a bit of color on how you're seeing
2009? Ron Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO Well Nigel, we're not
prepared to talk about 2009 on our call today. We are in the
process of developing our budgets for 2009 and all of our operating
companies that get rolled up at the segment level. We will review
that information during the latter part of November and early
December, so we're really not prepared to talk about '09 today, but
I'm sure it will reflect the current environment of the economy.
Nigel Coe - Deutsche Bank - Analyst Okay. But when you talk about
moderation in 4Q, are we talking about a deceleration in growth
rates or something a bit more profound than that, perhaps? Rob
Kuhbach - Dover Corporation - VP, Finance & CFO I would say,
Nigel, overall, we're probably talking about moderation. If you
look at our first three quarters of the year, energy continues to
have had strong improvement quarter over quarter, but overall, the
trend has probably been moderating, and I think we are anticipating
that growth factor to continue in that general vein. So we're not
expecting a big falloff, but we are expecting some moderation
selectively in the energy space. Nigel Coe - Deutsche Bank -
Analyst Okay. And then as a follow-up, on the buybacks, obviously,
we've been very accretive over the last couple of years. You've got
a strong balance sheet. It seems that the credit conditions are
improving somewhat, so how are you thinking about free cash flow
deployments going forward? www.streetevents.com Contact Us 7 2008
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9. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008 Dover
Corporation Earnings Conference Call Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO I think we're very confident, Nigel, that we will
continue to generate free cash flow double digits relative to our
revenue. We will continue to evaluate paying down debt versus
buying back shares versus using it for acquisitions as we always
have. I think in this environment, we'll probably continue to look
at paying down our debt first and foremost. We will come back into
the share repurchase market if we think it's a good economic use of
our cash, but we're not announcing a program today. Nigel Coe -
Deutsche Bank - Analyst Okay, thanks a lot. Operator John Inch,
Merrill Lynch. John Inch - Merrill Lynch - Analyst Maybe start with
a question for Bob. The high end of the $40 million to $60 million
of synergy, I think, if my math is right, it's about $0.22, yet you
have called out sort of $0.11 here today and presumably you are
going to get some more benefit in the fourth quarter. Does that
suggest that the synergy benefit from these initiatives declines in
terms of an absolute contribution in 2009 or how should we think
about that? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and COO
Well, the number that we provided at Dover Day last year of the $40
million to $60 million target, we have achieved on schedule; I
would say we're ahead of schedule with respect to our targets from
a year ago. I wouldn't expect the benefits to decline next year. I
think we still have several more months of benefit to capture,
especially with the Markem-Imaje integration. But John, I would
also tell you, looking back on the targets we provided a year ago,
we felt at the time that we needed to sort of prove it to ourselves
that they were conservative estimates. John Inch - Merrill Lynch -
Analyst Because you always at the time, Bob, expected the targets
to ramp in the sense that you implement the initiatives and then
you get increasing benefits? Or was this more a front-loaded
benefit because you pick off some low-hanging fruit and then you
fall into maybe a little bit of a softer incremental contribution
the following year? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President
and COO I think our growth and our capture will continue over the
next two quarters, and then I would label it as more of a
sustaining effort on those initial synergy projects that we
identified at Dover Day last year. John Inch - Merrill Lynch -
Analyst Okay. The question also was on Technologies. If we
prospectively roll into very weak Christmas holiday retail season,
has that already been reflected in the results of Technologies? Or
does that get potentially a lot worse in the fourth quarter? Maybe
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10. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call could you just talk a
little bit about how the business ties in and sort of how -- you've
been through these cycles before -- how we should think about this
cycle versus prior cycles for that segment? Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO I'll let Bob add more color, but I would say that
typically, as you know, John, historically, the technology group
normally sees a first-quarter pullback from the fourth quarter.
That is a weaker, let's say running into the Christmas season and
perhaps it was a year ago in terms of momentum. Our companies have
held up quite well in that regard for most of this year. I think
what we're seeing is the semicon market is a little bit soft and I
don't think we anticipate this being a knockdown Christmas season.
So there will be some moderation back to the first quarter, but we
really can't call '09 yet at all. Bob Livingston - Dover
Corporation - President and COO And John, just to add another
comment, traditionally the fourth quarter has not been a strong
quarter for the equipment companies within the electronics sector.
We typically see the buildout for capacity and technology changes
occurring during the year prior to the Christmas build. So the
fourth quarter for us here for this year, we would still expect to
see some -- I call it normal seasonal patterns with respect to the
equipment companies. Sort of offsetting that is our play and the
diversity that we have with the military and our communication
infrastructure, as well as the strong participation that Knowles
has. We are not expecting a sharp pullback in the fourth quarter.
John Inch - Merrill Lynch - Analyst Just -- Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO John, I would also just draw your eye to how well
margins have held up in that area and how well we've improved over
the last couple years. I think the business cycle, should it
deteriorate, we really don't see it probably going back to the
levels that you would have looked at in our historic performance of
five to ten years ago. I think we really have a much better
portfolio now, much more focused. The business combinations we've
put together have improved the cost base, so I think the margins
will hold up much better. John Inch - Merrill Lynch - Analyst
Thanks very much. Operator Robert McCarthy, Robert Baird.
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11. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Robert McCarthy - Robert
Baird - Analyst Bob, your discussion of the procurement program and
the idea that you think you can realize comparable, which I take as
what -- at least $50 million of incremental benefit. Can you
provide some kind of a timeline over which you think you might be
able to realize those benefits? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation
- President and COO Rob, I would call it the initial phase of this
project is underway now. The initial phase being I will call it
assessment and opportunity identification. We won't have this
initial phase completed until near year end or even going into
early in the first quarter. Robert McCarthy - Robert Baird -
Analyst Okay. Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and
COO The benefits that we expect -- I would say, again, I would like
to think that we're going to be conservative in this -- but we do
expect those benefits to be at least equal to the benefits we
identified a year ago at Dover Day on our synergy opportunities at
that time. From a timing point of view, I think you need to look at
this as starting to occur in the second half of '09 with most of
this being a benefit in the 2010 period. Robert McCarthy - Robert
Baird - Analyst But not crazy to think that you might realize most
of your objective in 2010? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation -
President and COO Correct. Robert McCarthy - Robert Baird - Analyst
Yes, okay. Then I'll just bolt together two little ones, one a
follow-up or a clarification and then get back in queue. One, could
you share with us when the next scheduled Board meeting is at which
you might seek an incremental share repurchase authorization? And
the clarification I wanted to ask about, Rob, I kind of got the
idea that what you're communicating about the energy platform is a
likelihood of a sequential revenue decline in the fourth quarter.
Ron Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO That is I think what Rob
referred to, is that we anticipate that the fourth quarter will be
a little slower than the third quarters in terms of activity level.
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12. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Our next board meeting,
of course, is in November, but we're not going to comment about
share repurchase at this point. That's something that is up to the
Board's discretion and discussion, and we certainly aren't going to
air it out over the phone. Robert McCarthy - Robert Baird - Analyst
No, of course. I just wanted to understand the timing of when that
could occur. Rob Kuhbach - Dover Corporation - VP, Finance &
CFO I would also mention that we have a standing authorization for
share repurchase that we have still on the books, so it's not a
case that we don't have the ability to do something if that were to
be decided at the Board meeting. Robert McCarthy - Robert Baird -
Analyst What's still outstanding, Bob -- Rob, on the existing
authorization? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and
COO I think it's in the range of $8 million to $10 million. We
authorized $10 million a couple years ago and I think it's down to
about $8 million. Buybacks last year were separate and discrete
events, so they were not a deduct from the standing authorization
we had authorized two or three years ago. Robert McCarthy - Robert
Baird - Analyst Thanks for refreshing us on that. Operator Terry
Darling, Goldman Sachs. Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
Just had a couple clarifications. Ron, I guess the 12% earnings
growth for full year versus 12% plus, I just want to be clear that
you are pulling off the plus component of it. And if that's the
case, certainly in this market and understandable, I think the
implication for 4Q is $0.87. Can you clarify there for us? Ron
Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO Well, I live by our 12% guidance.
We've been saying plus during the year. I could probably say plus
again. We could argue about whether it's a thick plus side or a
thin plus side, Terry. But I think what we're doing is displaying
our confidence that the guidance we gave you earlier this year, we
stay true to that guidance and we believe we will deliver on that.
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13. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Paul Goldberg - Dover
Corporation - Treasurer & Director of IR Hey, Terry, it's Paul.
Just to be crystal clear on this, the 12% guidance was off our last
year number before we stated financials, so the base was $[3.22].
What you would do is add 12% on top of that and then add $0.04 for
the impact of the restated financials that we had. So that's the
number. And if I do quick math in my head, your $0.87 doesn't
compute to me. Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs - Analyst Okay, that's
helpful. And then maybe, we have a similar answer to this next
question which is, if I look at the operating margins presented in
the Q that was released this morning, you're presenting it pretty
flat year over year, but the last page of the slides is indicating
margins for a full year, up 10 or 25 basis points, which would
suggest very substantial year-over-year margin improvement in the
fourth quarter. I'm probably missing something there. I wonder if
you can clarify there as well. Ron Hoffman - Dover Corporation -
CEO Well, I think we said our margins were up 30 basis points year
over year during the quarter, and I think on balance, we believe we
have had a better year than last year. We see fourth quarter
holding up reasonably well. We will see some deterioration because
of the charges that might relate to restructuring relative to
changes we'll have to make to align ourselves to the new economic
reality, but we still feel pretty darn good about our margins. We
believe the progress we put in place are solid, are well-grounded,
and we're going to be able to build on those every time. Rob
Kuhbach - Dover Corporation - VP, Finance & CFO I think we are
expecting fourth-quarter margins to be relatively consistent with
last year's fourth-quarter margins. Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs -
Analyst Okay, that -- Rob Kuhbach - Dover Corporation - VP, Finance
& CFO That would put our full-year margins ahead of last year
by the range we put on that last slide in our forecast for the
balance of the year. Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs - Analyst Okay.
Rob Kuhbach - Dover Corporation - VP, Finance & CFO So if you
look at year-over-year, we're probably going to be last year's
fourth-quarter margins were 14.6%. We think we'll be within range
of that fourth quarter this year. That would put our full-year rate
slightly higher than last year's full-year rate. Terry Darling -
Goldman Sachs - Analyst Okay, thanks for that. And then on the
deceleration in organic in the fourth quarter, I'm wondering if you
can just give us a little more color by division. You had mentioned
the -- you'd seen some softness in the energy-related businesses.
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14. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call was a very strong
organic number in 3Q and probably one of the ones that's driving
the decel overall in the fourth quarter. But can you talk about the
various segments, a little bit more color there? Ron Hoffman -
Dover Corporation - CEO Let me comment on energy if I might. Quite
candidly, we are saying that we would anticipate some slowdown from
the 15% year-over-year growth rate that we talked about in this
earnings release, but I still think we're bullish overall on our
energy market over any course of time. It's obvious that we've
loved the energy market and the results it's brought to Dover, but
energy is not immune from the business -- or from the economic
slowdown. I think that it will fare better than many industries
that we serve. Today, we talk about $70 oil. I think $70 to $90 is
probably a more realistic number than the $145 we saw earlier in
the year. I think the credit crunch will have some impact on the
second and third tier drillers that serve the oil patch. There are
estimates that are saying that we might see a drop-off of 10% to
15% in active rigs in 2009, and I think you have to always put an
eye on that. But also an eye we watch is the number of feet
drilled, which impacts the activity level for us. As we look inside
our energy companies, certainly, Norris, AOT, Ferguson/Beauregard
are all production driven. And we think the demand for artificial
lift and the automation that those people bring forward will
probably continue to be utilized in all cycles of the oil patch. US
Synthetics and Quartzdyne, which bring technology to the drill
patch and diamond insert bits, special sensors. These are things
that will continue to be utilized by whatever oil and gas well
drilling goes on. Our Cook Compression group, which is our gas
equipment group, they really serve not the drill-related market,
but the transmission, production of natural gas, and that's kind of
a recurring revenue theme. And typically those things get some
repair cycles, which increase that business in a slowing economy.
So hopefully that will help you a little bit in the oil patch. We
believe that long-term, the world oil demand profile, the fast
depletion rates of gas wells, certainly aren't going to change the
dynamics of petroleum market. And who knows what the US is going to
display, but typically they display a trait that every time the
cost of fuel goes down at the pump, the number of miles driven
tends to go up. So we'll see what happens in this cycle. Rob
Kuhbach - Dover Corporation - VP, Finance & CFO If I would say,
Terry, at a high level, given what we've told you about the
full-year expectation, that obviously organic growth will likely be
approaching zero overall, and most of the positive will all be in
the energy and the Fluid Management space. And the mix among the
others will be largely consistent with third quarter, where most of
the -- the lion's share of our organic growth really came out of
energy and out of Fluid Management taken as a whole. So Paul can go
over that in some detail when you guys talk separately about the
detail, but I would say that the pattern you saw in the third
quarter, the relevant mix of where we got our organic growth, which
was heavily in Fluid Management, will be consistent in the fourth
quarter. Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs - Analyst Okay. Thanks very
much. Operator Scott Davis, Morgan Stanley. www.streetevents.com
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15. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Scott Davis - Morgan
Stanley - Analyst I was hoping we could dig into the restructuring
actions a little bit and more from a function of quantifying I
guess the magnitude. Is this kind of more of a pay-as-you-go or is
there something bigger going on here like HILL PHOENIX, significant
-- obviously that business is suffering right now. And maybe a
little bit of granularity there because that could help us forecast
for '09, of course. Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President
and COO Scott, good morning. This is Bob. First, I would -- your
comment about pay-as-you-go, this has been what we have been doing
all year long. We have actually had some through restructuring
charges and headcount reductions selectively, even starting in the
first quarter, that has picked up in different areas of the
business during the second quarter. The activity was at a bit
higher level in the third quarter. We expect the restructuring
activities to continue in the fourth quarter, sort of at the same
pace we saw in the third quarter. We're not taking any special
charges for this activity. It is a pay-as-you-go. And we believe
that the companies are well-positioned and well-prepared to take
some additional actions here in the fourth quarter or the first
quarter, as conditions warrant. Rob Kuhbach - Dover Corporation -
VP, Finance & CFO Scott, I would say that the lion's share of
what we're anticipating in the fourth quarter is predominantly in
industrial products, where we have some planned consolidation
efforts underway and somewhat similarly in Electronic Technologies,
where we have further consolidation. So those are probably the
bigger of the two areas for the fourth quarter, and those relate to
both physical plant consolidations and some anticipated headcount
reduction. But as Bob said, we're not looking to take a big
across-the-board charge or something on that order of magnitude.
Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley - Analyst Would you characterize this
as substantially more aggressive than during the year? I mean I
guess a better way to ask the question I suppose is just to say can
you quantify it? Are we talking $10 million? Are we talking $20
million? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and COO I
think the quarter we're talking -- we mentioned that the fourth
quarter would be consistent with the third quarter, which was about
$6 million, $7 million, in that range. And the head count reduction
will probably be somewhat higher in the fourth quarter than we have
had year to date. So I would say year to date in head count, we've
probably been in the range of 800 to 1,000 people. We would
anticipate the head count potential reduction would be similar to
that in the fourth quarter. So I would say it's probably
accelerating somewhat. The total number for the year is in the
range of about $18 million to $19 million. But these programs are
done by company, so we've been working on a rolloff. But that's the
current estimate for the year right now. Scott Davis - Morgan
Stanley - Analyst Okay. And then lastly, the product ID business
and you folks have probably some pretty good historicals to help
you understand the cyclicality of this business, if it's still up
3% in the quarter. How does that business typically hold up if we
are facing a global slowdown that some of us think we are walking
into a pretty tough period here. Would you expect that that
business is -- I know a fair amount of it is consumer related, so
how kind of bad does bad get when things are all over in that
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16. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Bob Livingston - Dover
Corporation - President and COO Well, keep in mind that 50% or a
little bit more than 50% of our revenue in the Product ID group is
recurring revenue, mostly in the form of consumables. And this
business will not be immune to a slowdown in the economy. The
slowdown would probably be felt more quickly with the sale of new
applications, new equipment. There is a large significant part of
their equipment sales that would be replacement sales. But I think
the business should hold up very well, as well as the margin is
holding up very well during a slowdown. Scott Davis - Morgan
Stanley - Analyst It helps, but not as much as I was hoping. It's
-- does it ever get to significant negative territory when times
are bad if you go back and look at kind of the 20-year data stream?
Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and COO It has never
done that. Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley - Analyst Okay. Good. Thank
you, guys. Ron Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO It's our high
consumable side, Scott, that holds the margins up in that group.
Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley - Analyst I've got you. Thank you.
Operator Wendy Caplan, Wachovia Securities. Wendy Caplan - Wachovia
Securities - Analyst Good morning. I was interested in your comment
that things sort of fell -- Ron, your comment about things sort of
falling off in August, which one would assume seasonally or on a
vacation basis, European vacation basis, but seem to get a little
better in September. Can you give us some more detail on that,
please? Ron Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO Yes, I think, Wendy,
probably the mindset of most people is that business continues to
get worse over time, and I think what we wanted to do was help the
people on the call appreciate the fact that we did have a slow
August, which is typical in many businesses that have European
content, but our September bounced back more to the levels of July.
So I guess overall, we were encouraged by that, to see the
deterioration wasn't accelerating. www.streetevents.com Contact Us
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17. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call It's too early for us to
comment on October, so we can't give you any color beyond that, but
I think what we want to do is make certain people understood that
it wasn't a declining path through the period of the quarter and
wasn't building on itself. Wendy Caplan - Wachovia Securities -
Analyst Okay. And when you say -- so you are snapping back to July.
How does that compared to say the beginning -- the first half of
the year, in terms of the bounce-back? Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO I think this was our third-largest bookings
quarter in our history, so in the second and -- excuse me, the
first and second quarter would have been the two previous highs. So
still at a pretty solid, robust content, but slightly below those
first two. Wendy Caplan - Wachovia Securities - Analyst Okay. Bob
Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and COO Wendy, if I
could add some color there. Good morning. This is Bob. Actually,
our order pattern for Dover this year, with the second quarter
being our high quarter, is also reflective of what we saw in 2007.
Further, to Ron's comments and the order pattern in the third
quarter, we saw the typical seasonal sort of weaker August
sandwiched by very solid order rates in July and August, and that
pattern was exhibited at all four segments. Wendy Caplan - Wachovia
Securities - Analyst That's very helpful. Thank you so much.
Operator Alex Blanton, Ingalls & Snyder. Alex Blanton - Ingalls
& Snyder - Analyst I was going to ask about 2009, but you
probably said all that you care to say about that at the moment.
So, let me go onto something else. On acquisitions, are you seeing
any easing of the prices now with financial buyers being under some
stress? Are you seeing better prices, prices coming down? What's
going on in that market? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation -
President and COO Alex, this is Bob. Good morning. First off, I
would comment that our pipeline opportunities here, as we exit the
third quarter and going into the fourth quarter, are probably as
heavier right now or the pipeline is fuller than it was even in the
beginning of the year. So we have some interesting opportunities
that we have that we are looking at. www.streetevents.com Contact
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18. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Pricing -- the pricing
is clearly less than it was in the '05, '06, and early '07
timeframe. And I would say that the properties and the processes
that we have been engaged in over the past 30 days are more
reflective of some historical, more moderate price premiums. If we
were to sort of anecdotally comment on the properties that are in
our pipeline today, they are all add-on acquisition opportunities;
no new stand-alones. And obviously those add-on acquisition
opportunities provide us great opportunity for synergy using the
new PMI process that we're implementing. Alex Blanton - Ingalls
& Snyder - Analyst Okay. And secondly, you mentioned that steel
prices were coming down, but many companies have long-term
contracts so that they don't feel the effects of those spot price
declines as soon as you might think. What is your situation? How
soon would you feel moderating material prices in your business.
And if you need to make some distinctions between one division or
the other, please do. Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation -
President and COO Well, I'm not sure I would draw a distinction
between one segment versus the other, though, obviously, within
Fluid Management and Industrial Products is where the bulk of our
steel procurement does take place. For the most part, many of our
companies have long-term contracts in place that were expiring in
the June, July, and August timeframe. We have not been locking
forward rates on our steel procurement during the third quarter.
And I think we've probably, here in the fourth quarter and going
into the first quarter, I think we will capture some immediate
benefit from the moderating prices in the commodity area. Alex
Blanton - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst Okay. So how soon would
you write new contracts then? You would wait for prices to decline
further or what would you do? Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation -
President and COO Well, my first comment would be that we're
looking at that as part of this strategic sourcing and supply chain
initiative project that's underway here in the fourth quarter, and
we are very consciously not looking to sign long-term contracts at
this point in time. Alex Blanton - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
Okay. Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and COO We
want to complete this process here at the end of the fourth
quarter. Alex Blanton - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst Got it.
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19. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Operator Steve Tusa,
JPMorgan. Steve Tusa - JPMorgan - Analyst So are you guys getting
used to describing the difference between 12% and 12% plus over
there? Anyway -- Ron Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO We're
learning. Bob Livingston - Dover Corporation - President and COO
Love that granularity. Steve Tusa - JPMorgan - Analyst Well, we
pick that up in our note too, so you reaffirmed solid in the
context of the environment, definitely. Just a question on the oil
and gas side. This is, I guess, you can call it forward-looking or
not. But I'm wondering, what are your guys telling you is their
customers' price deck right now? I'm just curious -- I know a
couple of years ago it was, I guess, 40 to 50, but my guess is
that's moved up a little bit over the past couple years. Ron
Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO I think if we've been chatting
earlier this year about $60.00 kind of being the floor price of a
lot of the budgets in many of the E&P companies. I think that
you can almost kind of throw that number out the window and say the
rate of deceleration from $100 down to $70 has probably intimidated
people somewhat. Surprisingly though, as we look at our oil patch,
many of our companies are talking about the capacity being full for
the fourth quarter. So I think we will see a moderation, but at the
same point in time, I think we're going to probably complete '08 in
fine shape in the oil patch. '09, we will see more of that once we
see the budgets of everybody's companies. I think we will see
probably some pullback in just the pace of drilling. If OPEC should
cut production and keep prices high, it will impact us in a
positive way. So we continue to be encouraged just because the
broad-based platform we have there. It's just not one segment of
the energy patch. We think it's healthy. We think some of the
drillers that came in, in the second and third tier, may slow just
because of credit, but we don't see the majors really slowing a
whole lot of activity, at least with what we know today. Steve Tusa
- JPMorgan - Analyst Is there a more or less exposure to the
various types of customers, like the second and third tiers and the
majors? Is there any kind of difference to you guys?
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20. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO Not a lot. Most of those are all going to be
land-based drilling, certainly gas wells have been the predominant
drilling over the last few years. I don't think we will see the mix
of product, if that's the nature of your question. I don't think we
will see the mix of that change radically. Because whether you are
a major, a second, or third tier, most all of them use the same
technology for their drilling application, so I don't think our
product mix will change radically. Steve Tusa - JPMorgan - Analyst
Okay, and then feet drilled, with regards to the rig count, is
there a huge difference there? I'm not an oil analyst. I'm just
curious as to -- because you highlighted the difference. Ron
Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO I think what I'm just saying is
sometimes you can get overly preoccupied with rig count because
rigs are getting more efficient over time. The diamond inserts that
we certainly sell in the marketplace allow them to complete their
drilling in a shorter time span, which means they can move that
rig, so I think drill rigs are more efficient. The reason I like to
look at feet drilled is that's an actual production number that's
tangible to us in terms of feet, which is wear on diamond tips,
it's sucker rod, lengths of strings. It's things that we can
tangibly define into whether it's good or bad for us. So that's why
we look to more than just welcome -- excuse me, active rigs. At
this point in time, Steve, I don't have a prediction on feet
drilled from any of the analysts that look at the oil market enough
to give you a tangible answer to that question. Steve Tusa -
JPMorgan - Analyst Is there an imaginable scenario where this
business is down at some point over the next few quarters? Ron
Hoffman - Dover Corporation - CEO I think the term we've continue
to use, and we feel consistent with is we will probably see some
moderation over the next few quarters. I don't see a dollar figure
yet or an activity level yet that tells us that we fear of the next
couple of quarters. Steve Tusa - JPMorgan - Analyst Okay, and since
I'm last, I will take one more follow-up. On the margin improvement
side, you guys tweaked your estimate down a little bit for the
year. It was up 25 to 50 I think in the last presentation you gave,
and it's now up 10 to 25. Is that -- what's the subtle change
there? Is that ForEx, is that raw materials, volume? Ron Hoffman -
Dover Corporation - CEO I think some of it is the fact that we
actually did better in the third quarter in terms of margins, so we
actually have improved our margins, which helps the overall math.
And then I think there is some moderation because the restructuring
cost that has to be taken as we look to the remainder of the year.
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21. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Oct. 22. 2008 / 8:00AM, DOV - Q3 2008
Dover Corporation Earnings Conference Call Paul Goldberg - Dover
Corporation - Treasurer & Director of IR As well as a little
bit of moderation in our revenue expectations for the fourth
quarter. Steve Tusa - JPMorgan - Analyst Yes, and some
restructuring. Okay, great. Thanks a lot, guys. Operator That
concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call
over to Mr. Hoffman for any closing remarks. Ron Hoffman - Dover
Corporation - CEO This will be my last earnings release call, and I
would like to say thank you to our analysts, investors, and Dover's
global employees who have been highly supportive of the many
changes that we've brought to Dover to increase shareholder value.
Bob Livingston and the executive team have a great game plan for
accelerating the process of synergy capture, leveraging Dover's
procurement, and increasing the value creation of our future
acquisitions. I'm very proud to be a Dover shareholder and have
enormous confidence in the future of this great company. Thank you
for attending our call today. Paul Goldberg - Dover Corporation -
Treasurer & Director of IR Thanks. With that, we would like to
complete this conference call and we look forward to talking to you
about the results of the fourth quarter. Thanks a lot and we'll
talk to you later. Bye. Operator Thank you. That concludes today's
third-quarter 2008 Dover Corporation earnings conference call. You
may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful
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