RemindersReminders
Thursday: EXAM 7:00 pm Exam—Material through last weekPowerpoint lectures on course
web siteFriday: Video THIS ROOM (not
Friday discussion rooms)
OverviewOverview
Ecosystem managementAdaptive managementComplexity and wildlife
management– Resilience– Scenario planning
Changing philosophiesChanging philosophies Over past 50 years, emphasis in natural
resource management on public lands, resource extraction, recreation– Legacy of multiple-use paradigm of Pinchot
More recently, growing shift in philosophy and direction of natural resource management– From: Top-down, government-mandated,
expert-driven approaches– To: Model of shared decision-making,
cooperation over confrontation, local involvement
Ecosystem ManagementEcosystem Management
“An approach to maintaining or restoring the composition, structure, and function of natural and modified ecosystems for the goal of long-term sustainability…that integrates ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional perspectives…”
Source: Meffe et al. 2002, p. 298
““Traditional” vs “Ecosystem” Traditional” vs “Ecosystem” ManagementManagement
Traditional Management
Ecosystem Management
Emphasis on commodities and natural resource extraction
Emphasis on balance between commodities, amenities, ecological integrity
Stable and “equilibrium” perspective Dynamic and resilient
Reductionism, site specificity Holism
Predictability and control Uncertainty and flexibilitySolutions developed by resource management agencies
Solutions developed through discussions with stakeholders
Confrontation, single-issue polarization, public as adversary
Consensus building; multiple issues, partnerships
Source: Meffe et al. 2002
Example of ecosystem Example of ecosystem managementmanagement Northwest Forest Plan
– Coordinated management of 24 million acres of Federal land in Washington, Oregon, California
Goals: Protect “old-growth” forest home to spotted owls and other species
Sustainability of logging President Clinton held “forest summit” in
1993 Created multi-agency “Forest Ecosystem
Management Assessment Team”
How we learnHow we learn
Tradition (“local knowledge”)Trial-and-error (“college of hard
knocks”, “on-the-job-training”)Scientific experiment (objective,
explicit, replicable, but often reductionist)
Adaptive management: Combine advantages of trial-and-error and scientific learning (C.S. Hollings and Carl Walters, 1960s)
Gypsy moth Gypsy moth exampleexample Options: Insecticide spraying,
spot treatments, salvage logging (no spraying), etc.
Modeling: How do insecticides affect native species?
Gaps: Do seasons matter? Management actions: Could we
test by spraying different seasons or not spraying at all and study impact (large scale, not plots)?
Measure performance: Collect data
Determine policy options: Summer spraying better, stop spring spraying, or stop altogether
Adaptive management and Adaptive management and NWFPNWFPExamples of “Passive adaptive
management”– How to integrate timber production
with restoration and maintenance of habitat?
– How use schools to generate water quality information?
The world is complexThe world is complex
Understanding complexity requires
– High degree of interdisciplinarity
– Focus on complex environmental systems that include interactions of non-human biota or humans
– Focus on systems with high potential for exhibiting nonlinear behavior
Types of complexity Types of complexity Environmental variation Biological variation in small
populations Synergistic effects (e.g,. multiple
stresses like drought and disease)
Cumulative effects– E.g., accumulation of chemicals in
food chain– Spatial effects (many small
decisions make up big decision, like with migratory birds)
Dusky Seaside Sparrow (Florida)
Guaranteed to go extinct when last 6 known individuals males
ResilienceResilience Humans and ecosystems share a number of
properties, for example: – Resilience: The capacity of a system to absorb
disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure
– Sudden shifts can alter ecosystems, as well as human understanding and the institutions that carry out management
Example: Walking with coffee in a ship in the harbor or at sea
In wildlife management (and ES generally) we often assume systems are linear and changes incremental, but often not the case
Resilience and ecological Resilience and ecological systemssystems Ecological and human systems are
dynamic (like boat at sea)– Constantly confronted with “surprise”
events– What is optimal one year, is not the next– Structure and function of ecosystems
change over time Not just amount of knowledge that is
important (e.g., species, ecosystems) but also kind of knowledge– How we perceive connections, consider
uncertainty, consider resiliance
Example: Pines and fireExample: Pines and fire
Longleaf pine ecosystems in southeastern US adapted to burning in summer (lightning)
In trying to control, we instituted fire suppression policies because fire seen as problem, not natural process– Result? More fire prone because
woody debris builds up so fires more intenseforests become less resilient
ThresholdsThresholds
Social-ecological systems can exist in more than one kind of stable state– If system changes too much it can
cross a threshold and begin behaving in new and unexpected ways (it has undergone a “regime shift”)
– Example: Landscape that is eroded and shifts from fertile to barren (e.g., Aral Sea ecosystem)
Ecological thresholdsEcological thresholds
Point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon
Disturbance can change the state of an ecosystem
State A State B
Example of sudden changeExample of sudden change
Shift in lake from clear (“Shift in lake from clear (“oligotrophicoligotrophic”) state to ”) state to turbid (“turbid (“eutrophiceutrophic”) state from nutrient inputs”) state from nutrient inputs
Clear Turbid
Add phosphorus
Adaptive CyclesAdaptive Cycles Most systems have cycles
– Important to recognize that systems behave differently depending on the phase of the cycle
– Ecological systems and human systems can go through recurring cycles
Many systems move through Adaptive cycles, periods of:– Rapid growth– Conservation– Release– Reorganization
Phases of adaptive cyclesPhases of adaptive cycles Rapid growth phase
– Ex: growth of population of invasive species or growth of start-up like Google
Conservation phase– Shift from opportunists to specialists– More connections, more stable, but system
becomes less flexible and vulnerable Release phase
– Disturbance exceeds system’s resilience and system breaks apart
– Ex: fire breaks out and burns old trees; new technology upsets existing companies
Reorganization phase– Reorganization and renewal– Ex: after volcano, new pioneer species may take
hold; possibly begin like original “rapid growth phase” or simply emerge as novel system or collapse into degraded state
Example: spruce budwormExample: spruce budworm Spruce/fir forests common across N.A.
– Spruce budworm (moth larvae) populations explode every 40-120 years, killing up to 80% of trees (populations grow until outstrip ability of birds to control them)
Traditional management approach ignored cycles– Initially, after WWII, massive spraying, but only effective
on young trees (harder for birds to find in mature forest until finally passes threshold and erupts)
– Outbreaks only held in check if sprayed, but expensive and made worse because eventually more trees and more budworms
– Eventually resulted in catastrophic explosions of pests New management approach recognizing cycles
– Only targeted pesticide application– Smaller patches of forests in different stages of growth– Recognition that outbreaks part of the system
Changing scalesChanging scales
Growing emphasis on large natural systems– Example: Watersheds over
biologically artificial political boundaries drawn on maps
Growing emphasis on complex coupled (“linked”) relationships between humans and the environment
Reprinted from Gunderson and Holling 2001
Fast & slow scales in natureFast & slow scales in nature
Time and space scales of the boreal forest and the atmosphere
(Gunderson and others 1995; Westley and others 2001). (Reprinted from Gunderson and Holling 2001)
Scale in human systemsScale in human systems
Institutions have scales as well. Hierarchy is structured along:– Dimensions of
number of people involved
– Approximate turnover time
How manage for How manage for uncertainty? uncertainty? Traditional planning typically assumes
we know how the world will look in the future
Scenario planning offers way to make decisions in face of uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty– Offers policy makers way to develop more
resilient policies– Not predictions of what will happen, but
exploration of what might happen
Scenario example: WI N. Scenario example: WI N. HighlandsHighlands Northern Wisconsin, like ME, many lakes and forests
– Historically not many people, now population growing for recreation and tourism
– More roads, lake lots developed, congestion, invasive species, exotic fish
Series of scenarios developed to plan for future– “Common baseline”: growing congestion, conflict over
resources, unhappiness– “WalMart nation”: tourism takes over, theme parks, big
business, urban sprawl– “Walley commons”: Deregulation, visitor population
declines, real estate collapse, ecosystem recovers– “Northwoods Quilt”: retirees and lake associations work
to develop conservation strategies, economy diversifies, conflicts resolve
All are plausible scenarios, allows individuals, communities, and policymakers to consider different futures and what to do to get there