Victims or victors? Managing the revolution Silicon Vallcy in California is the epicentre of thc information tcchnalo y age. The 'Vdley' has becornc an icon for thc hectic, intcrcoiiiiected wor f: d we live in. Seismic shifts arc something this particular community knows all about, The San Andreas fault is built into tlie fabric of Californian lifc. 'Whepz will the big one be ?' is a question lurking in the back of everyanc's mind in thc 'Vdley'. Perhaps that question should be in tlie back nf the World's collective mind as well. Is this the big one for society as we know it?

by Dr. Robert Gaitskell, QC

t is arguahlc that w c live at a timc wlicn the chnlleiiges of tcchrivlofiical clinngc arc just I as significant as tlic threat fr-on1 tcctuiiic

plates. Both may bring t h c holw down around our e m . 'I'lic old Cliincsc cui'sc, ' M q you live it1 inrcresrbzg tiin~x', has coinc true (or our g e11 crario I1 ,

Jus t a few ycnrs ago cvcrything in chc g a t d c n sccincd su roscy. I n 1989 Francis Fultuyariia w a s writing about 'Thc end of' kis trrq~' , sincc the Sovici clircat had goric and wcstcrii capitalisin liad triumphed. Since thcn wc h a w had thc Gulf war, the wnr in Kosovo and n varicty of lcsscr wars and terrorist outrages.

Tlic sweep of liiwxy, siricc p p l e lirst started rccortliizg cvcnts about 7000 ycats ago, shows tlinr for long priods, often litintlrcds of yonrs iti length, there will h e rclativc stability, but this ciiils bp nu overturning of tlic cstnblished order as a complctcly iicw pntadigin prcvnils. H ~ i t ~ i i i coininuiiitics stnrtcd as hunter-gathcrcrs. 'I'hen cainc settlcd f ari niii g CO i i i iiiu ii iti cs t lia t al I owc d t hc ilcvclup - iiiciic of spccinlist slrills, the accumiilatioii of wcnltli arid Icarning, and the cstxblislinwnt of siaiiditig artnics. Surldciily, out of tlic decp silence of the past catiic history-written rccords aC iiicii aiid woiiim iund war; liicro- glyphics in Egyptian tciiiplcs and (111 Assyrian columns. Civilisalioii w a s upon l i s , Thc glories of rhc Pharaohs, of Ancictit C:rcccc niirl Ronic,

\i'crc a world away from tlic (lismal I i t t lc hands of noinads tliat prccccdcd rlicin. 'I'hc social tcctonic plntcs had mtwctl. Tiicii Roirie fell and w" agecl cl a n d the 1 h r k Agcs ricsccndccl. For

communal lifc was littic tlisturbed.

f roui the old as thc Indiiswial ltcvolution ioolr

warcr, could do work that htiiiiniis 01- anitids had d o n c sincc E ~ C dnwn of tiinc. Bui tiinchinos could nor oiily rcplacc. pcooplc, they c n ~ i l d SLll'paSs \VlMl we could do. Slldrlcllly, w e 11ad factorics atid p d u c t i o i i lirics aiid inrlustrics and IICW opportunities for untoldwcalth. It was clic day of the cngitmts. Mcri likc Uruncl huilt biidgcs a n c l milways a i l c l cliarigcd i:he facc of iiations. Scicriiists lilcc Fnmd;\y unlockcd thc sccrcts ol the univcrsc ;incl brought us clectric mcitors. I i~l iso~i invcntcd ricw cnntraptioiis fnsier chiiii sncicty could absorb thcni.

The itdustrid rcvolution gciicrntcd tradc AL

a rate uiidrcamccl of iii ii1or'c scdatc times. Naiioniil and intcniaLiona1 ccnimnicn bccnmc tho miv politics. Thcii the ricw parLic1igni fdtcrcrl and a gcnarLitiou w a s scarrcd by tlic Grcni h l ~ r w i o n or thc '1320s and 1930s. 'l.'liis uphcnvnl ciidcd only wirh nations rcarming to fjglit the bloodicst coiillicc cvcr SCCII.

But that's dl past IKW, isn't it? Thn~'s all history? 'I'hc ~ c r l i n Wdl is rlown; the Sibcrian

OVCI' n Lllousand ycars thc essential IlatLlrc 01

Bttv/ccr1 I750 and 1850 a Iicw order sprang

dfec t . NOW iiiachincs, d r i ~ by SLCMI OL'

THE ITAC REVOLUTION

CERN PS control room labour camps arc closctl; Europe is unitcd; the Unitctl States has tlcfcatctl Coininunism; arid capitalism is lting. Now \vc can at lass sir back and takc a wcll carried r c s ~ and conrciiiplacc a ticw Millciiiiiuiii with ;L scrise of tranquillity Kkll, can't we?

Bad ncws! Tiiosc lect.onic plales hwe startcd to shift again. Sociciy is going tliroiipli nii

uphcaval dint inny yet cornpiire with the grosser iiioincnts of the iiidustiial rcvolutioti. I31uc collar jobs will be lostwtiilc computer nerds arc licad-liurited rutlil cssly; s tnokc-staclc i ridusrrics will collapsc wliilc intcllcctual propcrty lawycrs will grow far; snmc cconomics will flrmrish while others tlic; people may bc nlieiintcd as ncvcr bcforc. A social scismic shift is upon us.

Can this be iric? Look nt tlic progress wc'vc ma&: radio tmnsmission at thc end of the last cenrury, allowing communicerion wirhour wires; sciniconductors in the I%Os and 197Cs, allowing inoi*c niid morc bits pcr chiy; saftwarc in the 1980s; then fibre optics, pcrrnitting vast qiiaiitiiics of datn to bc sciit chcaply arid swiftly, a i d now tl.ic Intcimt. Let's takc n sriapshot of thc world at tlic cusp of the Iicw Milhniuin. I suggest that i t i s not cntirciy a pretty picturc. 'The conflucncc of pcrsotial coriiputcrs, cuttitig- edge tc~ecorntnuiiical-ions and cybcrspacc has spiwiicd a ticw genic on the bloclc. He niay riot bc all bad, but he certainly isn't an angcl. 'L'lie cotribination of 'Internet, telccntninunicatiotrs and cotriputcrs' is a ~ ~ o w e r f ~ i l cnclrtail. ' I 'he 'I'L'AC revolution' has comc.

So, who is it affecting? How can we attempt to manage ttic tnaclsrrotii of ctiatige around us? Whac is the contcxt for these sc isn i i c shifts in society?

Clo halisation Rcccntly, I wns invitcd to address lawyers

and cnginccrs at CEIW, the Europcan particlc

pliysiics laborGitory in Gcneva. Whilc there I was stiown around rhc 27 krii undcrground cxpcrimcntal ring wlicrc the most fundamcntal parts of mattcr a te discovered and analysed. 'I: was d d thai physicists and etiginecrs from about XO coimrics are involved in this rcsearch. 1 WAS also reminded that it was a t CERN that thc World Widc Wcb WAS iiivcntctl by Tim Bcrticrs-L.cc, to fxilitatc global cotnmunica- iions between scicniists and cnginccrs.

So, oiic of tlic dcfining chnractcristics of thc ITAC rcuoluiion is its global natiirc. Tinic, thci-c will bc, a t lcast initially, ;1 numbcr of dcvclopiiig couiitrics which miss out. Frrr cxaiiiplc, x computcr costs eight ycnrs' avcragc iiicoiiic' iii Uangladcsh, compared to m u month's wage for thc avcragc Aincricnii.' Ncvcrthclcss, thc iiripact ol chis global tcvolutioii will bc far iiiorc widcly fclr in the shor~ tcrm than was thc casc with thc iiidustrial revolution. Let's survcy thc currcnr scene.

Internet Wc will focus o n tlic Intcriict, with a quick

glance at tclecotriinutiicaiioris nnd compuccrs. I hc [titcrtict startcd RS a projcct RT: UCLAz in 1969, 30 ycars ago, I ' ~ ~ i & t l by ARPA, thc Advanced 'Kcscarch Projects Ageticy.,." l'liis project allowed just two lumber-itig computers LO talk to cadi othcr, v;a ;I bullcy 'iiitcrphasc incssagc proccssor'. The objective 1va.q to allow US inilitaty computcrs t o comiiiuilieatc with cach othcr sccurcly. This thcn dcvclopcd into a World Widc Wcb for academics to share idcns. A particular breakthrough cnmc in 1'183 when a protocol was ngrccd thit c o v e d all computer nctworlrs. Now the Intcriict has bccomc a fcnttirc. oi virtually cvcryonc's lives in ttic Wcst. In 1988 oiily 1OOOOO cumputcrs Iiad a riircct conrlcction to the Internet, whcrcns in 1938, j u s t IO ycars lacer, rhcre wcrc ovcr 36 million. Dr. John 'laylor, who rccciitly rctircd 3s I'rcsidctii of the IEE, cxprcssctl tlic vicw in a speech in 1998 that he saw online itifortilation becoming a utility alongsidc clcctricity and water: He iorcsaw a global digital Intcrnct resource coiiiprisitig virtually cvcrytliing cvcr written, coinpuscrl, pcrformd, painted, filiiicd or recorded.

One thing we can be sure about is tha t the ways in wliich die Intcmct will changc our world arc not yct fully rcaliscri. Parallcls call be drrwn with othcr fo.orms of technical innovation. For exatriylc, whcn the tclcphone was iiivcntcd it was belicved its primary purposc would be for issuing instructions from

, I

20 FWCLN EElUNG MANAGEMEN'I' JOURNA L FLBl<UAl<Y 2000

TIIL ITAC REVOLUTION

managcnicnt to suhorrlinatcs. Tlic idea that it codd be used by tcctiagcrs to gossip about clothes was unforcsccii by thc crticlicc invcritars and c1iginccr.s bchiiid the idcii. Or take thc tclcgmph. Whcn it was invcntcd by Samuel Mwsc it was widely bclievcd thar this incatis of ~ i n i v c r s ~ l communication would ushcr i n world pencc. In fact, oi course, thc inilitary WCIX quick to appreciate how imporiant this iicw tcclinology was Cor thc waging of war,i

China Cliioa has about 1.2 billion pcoplc, toughly

onc-fifth o l t l ic planct's total. It IIRS ,111 nrriiy of nuclcar w c a p o ~ w ~ a sophisticated techno- logical basc nnd il riqklly cxpmditig ecrinomy. Historians gcncmlly accept thac until 1800 the cciitrc of the world cconoiny lay in Cliina," with irs silks, cotton aud prcclairi. Comincntators nlso agi-cc thnt this i s x giani iiow nwaIiing. 111 chc 21st cen~iii.y China i s cxpccted tu Irccomc, OIICC morc, thc world's I > jgy .~ t ccoriotriy. It is intcrcstitig to scc liow significant rhc I i i t e r n c t has becoine in Chiiin. Iwo ycars ngo, iii 1997, lntciner usagc iu

the Peoplc's I~cpuhl ic w a s about 640 000. At thc inomciic rlicrc are cstiinnlcd to bc nboui 4 million witli Intcrnct iicccss,3 and in 2001 i c is cxpccied to havc cxplorled to ahout 27 iiii1Iioi-i.

At that rnic of growth, in a population that i s

I 7

over four t i t i m thc size of thc USA, thc iisngc will I)ccomc formidablc i i i thc irnmccliatc future. Onc book-sclling site recently attractccl 300 000 Chiiicsc users in OIIL' clap '['list is real

Froiii catly o n the Cliiiiesc authoritics havc bccn cmsious a b o u ~ ilic social impm of rhc Intcriict. Dissidcnts ivcre quick to rcalisc that irihrmatirm sent OLILIO tlieUSAoii thc lntcrnct could thcn Lc placed oti Wcb sitcs for a widu rcndei.ship. Thcii, in January 1999, in thc first lriiown case' of a Cli i i icsc court poriraying LISC

01: the Tntcrnct ;IS R chnllcngc to state sccurity, a 30 ycar old softwnw cngiiicci. was jailcd iu Shanghai ioi- two ycws l o r suhvcrsiori for sending 30000 E-mail atldrcsscs EO a dissirlcui body in thc USA. Diplomars cointnentiiig on die dccision said that China. rcgiildy hlocks iicws sitcs nud chccks for sulwcrsivc mntcrinl.

A few iuonths agn, in July 1999, tIic Chiiicsc gnvcrnmciit c r d c d d o w n 011 the t;alun Gong sect, x mystical cult which claitns ,100 iiiillioii niciiibcrs. 'I'hc sect itscl C I I ~ S Iniig inadc sci:iaus use ol thc Iiitcriict. Duriiig t h e cmckilowii rhc organisation kept its incinhcrs inkorincd of arrcsts and co-ordii-iatctl puhlic dcinonstmtions viacybcrspacc.'rhc Chincsc governinclit is wcll aware of die Intel-nct's potcmial i l l thcsc inaticrs and has scizcd co jnp tc r s of thosc ~ h o surf cybcIspzcc for iidoriiiation. Thc nuchoritics

cyber po\vcr.

Central telegraph London. 1900

office,

21

also regularly block tlic sect’s Wcb sitcs. Thc govcrninciit has its own site, calletl ‘Uiivcil Falun Gong’, which conmins rcgulnrly iipdatcti propaganda against ilic culc. For cxample, it scts om stories about culc Incmbcrs who allegedly mutilate thcmselvcs and kill their fmilics. Tlic sect strilrcs b d r , of course, and its riicmbcrs flood the govcriitncnt’s siic .wih liostilc mcssagcs.

Boinbardmcnt with liostilc incssagcs was cffcctivcly cinploycd by Chiiicsc haclters i n May 1499 whun thc Whitc I-I-~ousc iVcb s i t c was brought to its knces aftct NA‘I.’O aircraft mistalrcnly botnbcd the Cliincse Hinbassy in Bclgradc’ during the ICosovo war.” ‘ J h c staff were kilicd arid 27 injured wlicn five guided missiles hit thc Lidding. Thc Web sitc was down for 24 Iiours, and’ thc sitcs of both thc Ucpartnicnts of thc Iiitcrior and of Energy wcrc pcnewaicd and pictures inscrtcd showing thc d c a d crnbassy staff.

T1ici.c is littlc doubt that aggressivc use nf thc Intcrnct by, and within, ccrtain statcs will cscdntc. Just il few months ago, in August, whilc Cliina W A S conducting military cxcrciscs near the Tainm Strait, a cybcr baiclc was raging.‘G Un clic oiic sidc Chiiicsc hackcrs brolrc into chc Taiwnncsc National Asscmbly Web sitc andplanrcd chc Cliincsc Clng. Software and the mainframe computcr wcrc rlamagcd. A mcssage was left saying: ‘Only one China exists and only onc is nceded’. Repairs took thrce riays aiid a ‘fircwall’ has hecn crccted to prcvent a rcpcat. O n thc othcr side, Taiwanese Iiackers targctcd varioiis sites, including that of the China Scciiritics Regulation Committcc, A recent book by two Chincsc Coloiicls addresscs thc qucsiion ol how China should stand up to die USA a id statcs: ‘Unl-crtrictrd wur is R war that snrpasses all boundurics and restrictions. 11 &us non-wilitmy fiwms and military j a m s and c r m m cl war on many fi-olais. T L is /,he wckr oftbef&m’.

I suggcst that thc Iiitcrnct will be usccl in Chitiii and other non-lvcstcrn countrics in ways that we caiinot even bcgiii to predict, Thc sticcr iiuinbcrs of pcoplc, arid clic unrcgdatcii nature of cyberspacc, provide chc ingrediciiis for political activity tha t will malrc lcadcrs cvcrywhcre quail. As a coinmentaror in the Lonrion Tu.”“ rcccntly put it: ‘Although rclarm-minded memhevs of the Buijing elite sktch as Zhu Rhongji, the Prime Minister, urc encowaging Chincsc lntcrucr cntrepuenews, they may bu beupying tly their owun fimerdi pyre’.

22

Michael Dell

World-wide offects Of coursc, it is riot only China whkli is

finding it iinposssiblc 10 keep thc genic in clic bnttlc. In Malaysia,” dui-irig the 1-ccctit trial of thc dissidcnt politician Anwar, therc was an upsurgc in sitcs voicing disscnt against the govcrii tncnt. ’l’hc autliori tics thctmclvcs have ostiiuatcri that the dissidcnt sircs received abnur two million h i t s in the fcw months ai-ountl the trial. .Mawrial on thc t d , including thc soiiiid ofAti\vnr’s spccchcs, c m bc dowidondcd. After thc govcmment l i d to blnclr sitcs t t i c opposition iiiovcd thcir sitcs offshore and uscd cticryption iccliiiolog y.

Or ialrc Iiidoncsia. In August 1999, in the ruii-iip to thc olcctions in East ‘l’irnor, whcn therc was concern ihat tlic Indoncsian govcrii- Iiictit would not nllow thc clcctions to ptuc~~ci i , R lcndcr of tlic I ~ S I Tiiiiorcsc indcpciiclcncc movement ttircatencd” tlic Indonesian autliori- tics thaL an army of rnorc than ioa ctmputcr Imcltei-s ivoLild dcclarc war on tho pcivcr~imcnt if it prcventcrl rhc olcciion. I IC said t h y would disrupi military, banliizg and financinl instiru- tiom nnd airline coinmunicatioiis, and would cmplop viruses.

Oncc a toralicai-iaii rcgiiiic loscs control of information i t loscs c h t i v c po\vcc Thc ltussiaus aclrtiowledged this whcii, clccp in the Cold Wai; rhcp liccnscd typcwritcrs arid photo- copiers. T h y still aclrnowlcdgc it: Russia’s lcdcral sccurity scrvicc, the FSH, the successor to tlic KGB, ~iow requires liirernct Sctvicc l’rovidcrs, ISPs, in that country to send all data, both incomiiig and outgoing, via dic FSU computcrs. Thus, thc sccurity service is ablo to tiionitor all E-mail traffic, a id who ~ C C C S S C S

which \Vcb pagc.’4 h i r i n g the reccrit Kosovo w.ir thc Scttian

authorities were failing to notify fniiiilics when their sons, brothcrs and fathers bccame casualties, so die KLA, thc Kosovan Liberation A m y , against whom tlic Serbs wcrc fighting, publislicd 011 its Wcb sjtc dctails of tliosc it had ltilled or injurcd, c 1 . i ~ ~ giving thc families up-p- the-ininutc iriformacian. This lcd to Serbian distrust of their own lcadcrship and, ultimately, deinoiistixio tis against l’rcsidcnt Miloscvk’j

Of co~irsc, aggressivc usc of tlic Internct hy dcvcloping couii tries poscs cvcn more dircct challengcs to Wesrcrn iiiaiiagciiicnt. In d ie pasi a Westcm comp;iny that offcndcd scnsitivitics i i i sninc far-flung coriicr 01 the globc might have kccd a Inca1 boycott; today it may Ciud iw Wch site brought to its knecs and cybcrspacc rcsnnaciiig FO an orchcstratccl hatc campnigii.

THE ITAC REVOLUTION

Security thrcats We IWOIV, frniii the a t c a c l ~ ~ ~ on Microsoft's

binail facility, I Iotmail, in Scptcnibcr I'/W, how vulncrablc commcrcial npcratims arc to hacking. Bqually, ilcmocratic govci"wnts ~iccd to be alcrt to hacking by totalitalian rcgimcs. 1:xpcricncc tclls LIS that the Pcntagcm is not scciirc from haclring. It was rcccntlp arlinittcd that i t i various nuclcar w q o n s laboratorics computers havc bwii pciicrratcd by oulsirlci-s. Onc rcport rcvcalcd tliar in ;1

ninc month pcriod in '1997/98 thcrc wcrc 324 attacks o n the Encrgy D~.pnrtincnl's unclassificd corizputcr systctris f rom oiitsidc the USA. It apptnrs that in sonic of tlzosc attacks thc hackcrs gairicd complctc acccss and total cotitrd both to crcate ticw matcrinl and to modify existing data. So, now w c havc soinc iclca just how vuliietable our sccuriiy systems arc. This was recogtiiscd in January 1999 wlicn Prcsidcnt Clinton atiuounccd R t i c w b d p t dint includcd tnorc than US$IO billion in uniiItci4-

terrorism incasurcs to figlit cyhcr-attacks 011

the Intcrtwt, a i d COIIIIICI' wcapons o f mass destructinn." Thc chnllcngc for our socictics, arid for us as cngiiiccrs, is cn ensure that thc free world reinaiiis just that: fi-cc.

F,-coininercc One cstimatc puts CLirrciit Internet trans-

accioris at about uS$50 billion pcr aniiutn,lB of which 80% i s in thc USA. It is said that thc growth of lritcriict trading partly cxplains thc bull iriarkec of rccctit ycars, tlie so-c~l lcd 'new paradigin'. I i i t e m c t sale5 tu lnrget uiarlrcts allow coiiipanies to incruasc production, anc l rcap die benefits of ccoiioiiiics of scale. Further, licw companies arc being spawiicd at a brcatli- taking r t c , iicw forcigti inarlrcts arc h i n g created wlici-c iioiie cxistcd, and siiiatl outfits sudtlcnly havc access to a global clicntclc. I ,fist ycnr Gcncral .Llectric spent a h 1 US$S billion ordinc, saving up to 15% 011 cuiiventional buying.1g Thc coinpany says it lias fourid ncw suppliel-~ through thc Wcb, including a I h i ngariau mal iu fx tu rc r ii f mach i iic c 01iq1 o - iiciits whosc priccs wcrc 20% luwcr than t h e original supplicr. I n addition, thc coitipnny claims to linve bciicfitcd from strcntnliriinr

I h i r e l y iiew mai.lietii-ig stratcgics, including giving xway personal coinputcrs, Iiiternct ;~cctss arid I<-mail, arc gcnctating a spiral of busiiicss ~'I-cIw,~. As an cx;uniplc of thc possiblc dvantngcs, oiic litinncial institutiotiZc rcceiidy swcpt away its old braricli network, consisting of physical outlcts all OVCI' thc crwiitry, arid changud to tclcplicliic sales, dcalt with by a cclitral call cc11trc. Tliis cut costs by hO%, and il inovc to IIIL' Iritcrtict tlieii cut -them by a furtlici. 75% on top of rhc origins1 saving.

'I'lic financial Inai-licts ccrtainly pcrccivc ttiat thc Lntcrnct is a n itIcz whosc tiinc has coiiic. 'I'hc scarch ciiginc, 'Yahoo!', srartcd by Stmiford U nivcrsity i1rt)puutjcrt.y Ymg,Z' h a s a giwter capitnlisatioii tlinii Gctieral Motors?' I>cll Cninputcrs docs US$f iiiillioii business b:-lnisincss cvcry clay. Jcfl Bezos, tlic 35 ycnr old founclcr of Ainnzon.cotu, thc lntcmci booliscllcl; is worth US$7 billion and cnnt ids about 3% of thc US book market, with 1998 s;iles of US$blO His company is worth US$20 Dp c l h i riati rig inidd ICIIIL'II, and giving suppl icrs direct access to ii global market, thc potential for small, iiichc coinpanics has bccii greatly ciilmiccd, pcrhaps to the loiq-tciuz dcrrirricnt of thc iiixjoi- pl~ycrs .1~

Iiiformitioti ovcrland Whcii a n individual clitet's cybcrspncc liis

immediate problctn is information owrload. A clinllcngc io l i s as cngincers is to clcvisccifcctivc incnns of Iiltcring the vast amounts ol' storcd inforination nvailablc. 'I'cchriiqucs of informa- tion rctricval(II<.) arid ai.tificial ititclligcncc (A [) ;7rc bciiig brought to bear on t h i s issue. 112 has ctcvclupctl mctlinds of dcalitig cffccrivcly with tnountains of information, wllilc A I i nc t l i d s pcrinit learning thc user's inioriiiarioii nccds, cxtracting informatioil froin chc tcxt, ~ n d rcprcscnhg clic scmantics of inforination. Thcsc two rlisciplirics necd to bc intcpateri inoro cffcctivcly.

Thrther, currcnt scal~ch Jerry Yang . . .

Jeff Bezoz

v

cxistiiigrclntionsliips with suppliers by usingits Web sitc to sccurc tcndcrs ancl liccp suppliers up to dntc oil ilic progress of jobs.

I,cgislation is Lc iq rtislicd through in countries iirouiid thc woikl to dcal with caiiccprs such as elcctroiiic signatures and encryption that wcrc iirikiiowii 20 ycars ago.

IINGINBISR1NG MRNAT~l~M1iN'I '~OUKNRI. T T B I ~ U A I ~ Y 2000 23

THE ITAC ICE VOLUTION

rccnrdiiig cvcry pxgc dicy cncounter in such a way that whcii iiscrs emcr the keywords that intcrcst tticm thc ciiginc is abic IO offer cvcry pagc containing those tcriiis.2h Howevcr, both types Iiavc rIiffiiuIty in clcaling with tIic context within which tcrins appcar, I Ieiicc, n scarch word like 'rape' will gct rrfferings irom thc engincs on bod1 sexual criiiic as well as oil sccd crops. In addition, both have difficulty capitig with rhc tnnssivc vnluinc and growth of thc Intcrnct.

A rccc11t study suggcsts that thc Wet's s c i d i cngiiics arc indexing only 16% of tlic Internet, a d t h t much data is only picked lip aftcr it is autofd~te.27Onc cstiniatc is that two ycnrs ago, in 1997, chc Wch had 800 million pagcs, ainounting

Freedom aiirl privacy versus law and order Aprcssiiig challciigc for 11s all is rhc staiid-off

bctwccn, on the oiic hand, tlic clcmaiitis of law etifnrccincnt agcncies that want lcgitimaw acccss to encryption kcys si) that they cnii tackle crime on tbc Intcrnct, and on thc othcr linnrl, tlic real coticcrns of civil lihcrtics bodics about lhc invasion of privacy. Iiidecd, cvcn apart from eavesdropping on encrypted incssagcs, it is already possible 10 correlate d a n frniri a varicty of sourccs to create z jigsaw showing whcrc and wlieli wc Ilcw, what car we hired, d l a t hotcl w c patronised, what we hnuglit and who w c plioncd. Purtlicr, sincc wvc don't know w h a ~ idormation exists ahnut us,wc cm't wcii bcgiii

to checlc that it is a t lcast acCUrAtc.

to six rcrabyrcs of data, 'l'hc speedy resolution hcld on thrcc inillion Companies are ol this bntilc rnny well bc scrvcrs, or central c o n - waking up to the OllC Of the In&t Sel.iOUS putcrs. This prohlern is cliallcr~ges w e face. W c cxaccrbaicd by n tctidcncp threat of intrusions, nccd wisdoni and disccrn- lor somc search engincs, inent to fitid a wo t ld l c sucli as UircctHit, 10 iisc viruses, data theft, compromise. CcitaiiiIy, if

in our anxiety LO maiiitaiii and hacking by privacy w c simply abdicatc

lcvels of popularity in dcciding whctlicr LO

rctricvc inforinalion. In installing security r c s p d i l i t y iot cybcr.- this wLiv izcw data is less suncc to tlic lawlcss and thc likcly tc; bc offcrcd.

Crime

anarchists, to tlic lrraud- stcrs and thc pcrvcrtcil, wc

great rate will h a w cond ciiiiicd

products at a ~

Ttic potcntial lor Intcmet crimc is virtually limitlcss.'~ C>ornpariics arc wakiiig 111) to thc thrcnl OC intrusions, viruses, data thcft ant1 hackiiig by itistnlling sccurity softwnrc products ;it a grcat ratc. In 1WX ilic niarlret for such products was US$2.3 billion, and chis is cxpected to glow to iiiorc than US$S billion by 2003.2"

'].'lie [titcrnct has spawiicd new crimcs, such as hacking, as well as ticw variants of olri crimcs, such as stallting. Ccrtaiiily it has simplified thc livcs of rnoiicy lautidercrs and tcrrr)rists. Major criminals such as drugs barons i i iw stow thcir rnoncy in jurisdickms where it is impossiblc to prosecute them, whilc thcy havc casy intcmatioiial xccss thanks to rbc Internet. 'I'lic hcad of the Scrious Fraud Office in Lntidon recciitly co1niiiciitccP that tlic Intcriicc posccs R particular problcrn to fraud investiga- Lions. IHc said: 'You havc victims from illl o w r he world ... Yoa c m get to the s t q c where no one law enfovcemcnt agency will taka it on. We've Seen h i s in quite a few cascs'.

succccdiug gcncrntions to R clisintcgratiug social

fabric. Wc will havc sowii the wind, but dicy will reap chc whirlwind.

?Clccom~~iunications As we havc sceti, the dcvclopnietit nf m r d c m

rclccuinms is thc second ciucial clcmciit in thc new rcvnlution. 'l'clccominunicatioiis havc comc a long way since Marconi's first public rlcinoiistraiioii 0 1 radio coinmunication in 1896, whcn tic sent a incssagc about 300 yards in London. 'J'lic ciirrciit challctige is to devclop a third gciicraiioii cclldnr plioiic system. Tlic first generation consistcii of carly annloguc ccll phoiics, wliilc dic second used digital radio technologics, accornmodating ii~ore iiscrs in a givcn spacc on tlic spcctrnm, whilc consurniiig Icss pnwcr, T h e third generation" will dcal with tlic full raiigc of wirclcss scrviccs. Thus, at the mnmci~tabusiucsspcrson inay usc in [he coursc of a day a pager, 3 cclliilnr phonc, E-mail, a Web Lrowsci; E-coinrucrcc, aiid multimedia, iricluding radio and TV Oiic challciige to us as cngiticcrs will bc to hclp thcm mnnnge dicir

24 ENGINIll i It [ N (; M A NAGBMLN'I' JOUlINAL lEi3RUA RY 2000

tclccamtnunicaticiiis by replacing nil tliosc picccs ol’ Iwc1wat.c wid1 a singlc dcvicc.12 ExpcrLs at MIT and clscwlicrc arc wcll nn thc way to dclivcring the goods.3’

Even apart f rom new gadgets, siinply using cxistiiig tclcccimiiiunicatinns thcrc is an axvyc- smnc changc occurring in the provision of profcssional scrviccs, cqiiivalcnt to die rlcvclopincnt in woi.ld trarlc in goods in the €3 iis t f cw cent iirics . ’ r h i s, significant nu i1ibci.s ol profcssioiial mginccrs in thc Iiidinn citics of Bangalore and Mombni aIc cmploycd by UK high tech cnmpanics, such as Eritisli Airways and Unilcvcr, 10 write cninputcr progi-anis and to design worlr at a fraction of ~ l i c salaries dcniaiidccl by British cnginccrs?‘ I~qiinllp, Amcrican ct)mpanics such as Bocing, Northcm ‘l’clccom, Bcll Atlantic, Goldinan Saclis, nut1 Lcvi Scixuss arc cniploying Indinti softwarc graduatcs at US$6000 per year rarhcr than a Silicon Vnllcy proglmitiici~ a t abour US$60 000 pcr miim.

sofiware industry’ in ittdia has grown frciiii riothing to reprcsciit about oiic-tcIitk oE thc country’s US$12O billion stock inarkci. ‘ I ’hus, thc export of scrviccs is sct to hccoinc a major cxport froin cnuntrics in Asia with grcat nuinttrs of: welt-qualified profcssioniils. The possibilities arc cndlcss. A rccent iwticlc” in

in Sri Lanka, charging US$X per day, coulrl bc uscd to pi-ovidc iiicriical advicc to homcless pctjplc in Kostcin vin a lriosk cquipped \it11 ii

rciiiotc virlco atid iiictlical insttuincnt CC~IIIICC-

tinn nuid staffctl by a iiursc. Anothci. passibility riscd was 1000 accOtlrltatlts in Bcijing doing accounting work for Gcnwil Morars a t US$] pcr hour, What long-win cffccl will this iriicrti;uional trndc in professional scrvices havc on Western cconoiiics arid prtifcssions?

Computers I lie third ingrcdicnt tnakiug up tlic rcvo-

Liicioii;iry mix is coinputcrs. Microproccssors havc stcadily shruiilr.”’ I n 1987 it cook a squarc ccntimctre of silicon to hold R inicroproccssor ccmisting of ZOOOOO trmsisiors LIIILI able to perform 20 inillinn instruccions pcr second (MIPS). But only tcn ycars later, in 1997, a silicon chip ol m l y o ~ i c sqiiarc millimctrc coiild lmld thc sniiic computing powcr. Soon, cncli triicrochip will have billions of transistors.

At thc irioiuent ciirrciit inicmchip arclii- wcturc rcquircs that thc chip’s wires link cncli ~ncmory location with each futicticm unit, so

111 lcss r11an t C l l ycars die so-callcd ‘offshorc

scicntqiic Arnurican spccdarcd that doc1ors

I 1

delays i t 1 transinitciiig diita clown tlic wires arc becoining iniirc significant. ‘I’his limitation on thc pcriorlndncc ol a chip can bc avoided iy using logic gatcs. A gatc is siinply nil array of timsiscors that rcgiilatcs the flow of informa- tionon a microchip by conttolliiig tlic direction of currcnr flow. F,xpcrts prcrlict chit within tcn ycars tlicrc will bc billions 0 1 such logic gntcs on cnch niicrocliip.3“ Tlic result will bc that n inicrocliip’s raw linctlwarc, including its wircs, will be exp~sccd to thc sot‘twarc compiler, \vho CALI tailor-iiialw the wiring for each application b y using frcc logic gates to control the signals in tlic wircs.

Faraday .As wc stiirc across thc Millcnniutn, a n d

wonder what lics in stow as thc lectonic platcs o i social changc heavc, t l ic options arc stark- whctticr wc arc victims o r victors will depciiil, arguably, 011 society’s rcsponse to the ITAC rcvoluticm nrouiid us. I bclicvc that wc, ns eiiginccrs, are iitiiqucly well plnccd to help our comnunicics to nicct rhc challcngos nnrl stiapc tlw changes dint chaltcrigc the bcdrock of our socicty. ’L’hc Russian Nobcl pr iw winriel; Alcxandcr Snlzhcnitsyn, givca in his book, “j’lic Gulag Arcliipehgo’, the followi tig dcscripcioii of an cnginccr:

‘An clagincer? 1 had QYOEJYJ ~p amoiigst cngin c e r.s, a.nd co rcld rem e mb e Y t hc engiiw c ys

of’ Lhc twcntier very well indeed: ~heiv apcn,

Alexander Solzhenitsyn

25

THE ITAC REVOLUTION

lhcm might play cc mesical instmmunt, u n o ~ b c v dabble in puinting; dnd their f d u c s udlways bore d spiritkzai imprint.’

We may tiot dl fit that dcscripcion of a11 cnginccr, hut I bclicvc wc can l c m i a littlc about how to approach dial modcl from Mkhacl Ihraday, the tnati who discovcrcd clectro- magtictic induction and rotalion, a ~ i d lhc laws of clcctrochcinistty, cwly in the last ccntury. I IC made possiblc the practical usagc of elcctrichy, which has led m t h i s prescnt ITAC I-cvolution.

F:al.adap was born into a poor family io 1792. IIc grcw up iii l,ondon, ricar Oxford Strccc His fathcr was J blaclrsniitli who was ill ancl uncmploycd for tnucti nf die timc. Michael rcccivcd no forinal schnoling, altliougl~ fnr smnc ycars the church lic attcndcd provided basic cdiicacioll clnsscs aftcr Sunday School

sketches of thc cxpcritncncs pcrlornzcd, and wit his work 10 navy, asking lor a job. Davg was sytnpathetic but no post was avnilalrlc. Howcvcr, shortly a f w chis, llavy’s b b assisram nt thc Royal Institution was involved in a brawl nud was sacked. Davy offered the j d , tn Michacl in 1813.

Thc rest, 3s thcy say, is history. He was clcctcd to thc Roynl Socicty i n 1824. Hc producctl over 400 scicntific publicitintis i t 1 his lifctiine and is acltnowlcdgcd as thc greatest figurc in tlic history of clcctricity, dying in 1867, agcd 75. Qwcii Victoria aclrnt~wlcilgcd his corirributioiz to scicricc by giving h i i n a housc a~ Halllpcoll Court.

MI~s. Tliatchcr kcpt a Lust of Faraday in No. IO Downing Srrccr, and oiic.e dcscribcd him as tier historical licra. Shc said in a TV intcrvicw: ‘A vcnalzukabk person.. , farher rnn n srniLhy

THE ITAC REVOLUTION

... s o n h ~ d v i r ~ u ~ i l y n o educatio la... hut bowcis brilliant. And he . . . didn’t go to wniwvcrsity.. I

hut r.xtraorclilad~y-br~lliant’.J7 So, i is wc facc a shift in the tcctnnic plntcs undcrpinniog our world, what can wc l cnrn from this sciiiiiial figure, who hirnsclf livcil at n tiiiic of uphcnval?

First lcsson-don’t give lip Thc first l~ssoi~wliicli, I suggcst, wc cnti lcarn

from I;xraday, is that of hard, hlicatcrl, work, focused on ttic cliallcngcs nf the (lay. If wc arc to IMVC any hopc of dircctiiig and containing tlic I’I’AC rcvolurion wc need to be cngaging with it. Wc should not givc lip simply bccmse cvcnts arc iiioving so quiclrly. A rcccnt British

avctagc Intcrnct user is aged under 30.” I find this disturbing, sincc it in- dicates that ~ l i c older gcncration is opting out of tlw rcvolution. Tlinr was not Faraday’s way. I IC was 40 when in 1831 lic madc his cpocli-making cliscov- cry of elcctmriagiictic iitductioii. ‘I ‘Iiroug h ou t that dccadc Faraday was oxpcrimcnting at ttic

scicotific dcvcloumerits.

sut-vcy shows ttlat thc

cutting ctlgc ol: l l C l V

later, in 1864, lie turiicd iiowii the Prcsirlcncy of tlic Royal Institution, So, h c truc to yoursclf.

l’hird lessoii-man is riot t l i c mcasiiru of all things

l ’ h c final lesson tliat 1 would lilcc to draw from Paraday’s life co1iccrti.s h i s view that, clcvcr a s we arc, IVC don’t Irtiow it ,111. Hc w a s very cotiscinus nf thc litriirs of Iiutriati rcason ing.

Tlicrc is n rcmpcation amongst thosc wlio arc curiuicly rcapiiig rbc betic tiis of rhc I’TAC rcvolLitioii, who arc making fottuucs over- i i i~l i t whcn their Intcrnct coinpanics float OII . _ .

... there is an undreamed of cornucopia of

knowledge available but an absence of

wisdom for evaluating that knowledge and discerning how to

apply it

We, too, should aim to bc engaged in thc issues of DUI’ timc, througtiout our worlcing livcs.

Sccoiid Icsson-bc true to ourselves W e siiould not iiim for inanngcmcnt: if

o u r rcal satisfaction cotiies Irom lianrls-oti ciiginccring, and h i n g irivolvcd nr die cutcirig cdgc of o u r disciplinc. Evcrtts ill Faraday’s Iifc rciniiid HS that wc should rccngiiisc ow swcngths niid wcakncsscs, and spcnd 0111’ tirnc doing what Lives l i s greatest satisfactiari. 111 I-Iainlct, Sliakcspcaro exhorts LIS with thcsc words: ‘This ubovc all: LO bine ownsclf he trzie’. Fnrarlny kiiew rhc wisdom of thnsc words. It1 1848, when Michacl tiad achicvcil grcal cinincncc as a scicntist, hc dcclincd to bc considered for thc Ptcsidcncy of thc Royal Sncicty, pl-cil~bly thc prciiiicr scientific iiistitu- t ion in ttic world ac h a t timc. ’ h i ycars latcr, in 1858, R high-powcrcd deputation callcd on I h x l a y and souElit oncc iiiorc to pcrstdc hitn to talrc the Prcsidcncy. Again hc dcclincd. A piiiiiiog iiow 1i;liigs iri tlic Royal Socicty s howiiig thc dclcgation with Farnday. Six ycars

L.NC;lNIIIiKIN(~ MANAGl~MENTJOURN~\T.

N A S ~ A Q , - W M i c v c tIicp <ire imistcrs of tlie univcrsc. At a tiiiic when thcre is ilti

undrcamcd of cornucopia of knnwledgc availablc, therc scetns to be ati ahsciicc of wisdoni for evaluating thi t knowlcdgc, and scpariiting the whcat from tlic chaff, aiid discerning how to apply what we Itnow.

X a m rcmiiidcd of the story oFhc inice who livcil in Mnznrl’s piano. Pvcry so oftcn tlic piano would rcsoiintc with wodcrh i 1 music. Thc old mice said

tlicrc ‘was a lcgcnd that this came from B grcnc piauisl. Tlic young triicc wcnt on an cxpcdiciori to vcrify this illid cncountcred sotm long wircs, which by carcful ohscrvacion thcy dctctiiiincd v i h c c d whcn tho music was hoard. S o thcy i.eportc<d back to tlic family that thc real sourcu of the rnusic was thc vibrating wircs, This satisficd them for somc time until ii n c w gcticration of poutig tnicc, all with PhDs frnm the bcsc universities, w r y adventurously wcnt even I‘urchcr afield, and ol>scrvcci thit whcn tlic iiiusic occurrcrl tlicrc wcrc ccrtaiii liainrncrs which struck ttic wircs, nud it was this that set up the vibrations. So thcy tumcil hoinc to rcpori tliai coiiirary io cnrlicr, incorrect, thctirics, thcy :ind now cstnblislicd, by dint of Ilieir grcar. rcasniiing p w ” s , aiid In rhcir cainplctc satisfaction, that thc rcal sourcc of ttic iiiiisic tvns thc Iinuirners.

I trclicvc Faraday has a lcssoii Cor 11s as our generation is swept alotig by our brilliancc in producing thc I’l’AC: rcvolutioti. In 1854 he was invited to address l’rincc Albcrc, Queen Victoria’s coiisort. I:aiaday could liavc tallrcd

FII3I<UAl<Y 2000 27

THE ITAC REVOLUUON

at lcngtli about his O W I ~ brilliant discovcrics. Inswad, in his talk he focuscd on thc liinils of h 11 inan reasoning and add rcs sc rl a tlicmc tlint conics from tlic proplicl Micah. It is n thciiic we mighi do well to rcinciiihcr nt thc bcginning of thc iicw Millennium: ‘. . . - ;ohn~ does the Lord wquiw of you brat t o do jsstice, arid to love kindness, and t o walk h m b l y with your God’.37

So, strciigthcncd by l.’nraday’s cxamplc, the c h a k n g c we facc as cngirieers i s no less than 10 make a coriitnitrncnt to thc iundatncntal valucs on which our wcictics scatid or fall. Biiipircs have rocrcrcd from Egypt ihiougli Crcccc ni id Roiric and onwards, whcn pcople h a w failcd 10 facc up to thc paradigtn shifts undcrininitig thcir co~ninunitics. Our own world is now undcr thrcat a d we, thc cnginuurs w1.10 arc bcst placcd to undcrsrand and rcsponil LO thosc hr-cats, cithcr act ilccisivcly imw or wc arc all ovcrwl~cl~nctl.

1

2 3

4

5

h

7

8

0

10

18

l‘j

2c

21

22

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24

25

26

27

28

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31

32

33

34

35

3h

37

3s

28