Pre-decisional1
Traffic Flow Management Weather Requirements
Working Group (TRWG) Program Review
Presented to Jason Tuell, NWS Meteorological Services Division
and Ellen King, FAA System Operations
April 1, 2011
Pre-decisional
Agenda
• Background• Organization of TRWG• Key Deliverables• Status Update• Concerns/Challenges• Update on other issues• Summary
04/19/23DRAFT2
Pre-decisional
Background on TRWG
• Established in August 2010 to meet four objectives: – Baseline current NWS weather support capability– Develop firm requirements for near-term services to Next
Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Middle Operating Capability (MOC)
– Provide a plan to implement solutions to meet requirements beginning in October 2011
– Deliver a Project Plan Roadmap by November 2010• Other short-term tasks identified in original FAA/NWS
correspondence– TRACON Forecast standard look and feel– CWSU off-hour support
04/19/23DRAFT3
Pre-decisional
Baseline Aviation Weather Support
• Scheduled and Event Driven Briefings
• CCFP• TRACON forecast
production
• National Guidance• Weather Models
− Wind forecasts• LAMP
• CCFP• CIP/FIP/GTG• ADDS
• Terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF)
• National Digital Forecast Database
• Volcanic ash advisories
Support to Traffic Flow Management
WFO
Volcanic Ash
Advisory Center
AWC NCEP
CWSU
TRWG_002
Pre-decisional04/19/23DRAFT
5
TRWG Role in
NextGen Program Development
Requirements Mapping
Requirements Mapping
FOC
TRWG_005
• Digital weather information in support of NextGen
• Impact decision support services
Current• Products and
services
• Impact decision support
MOC• Transition from
product-based to Net-enabled weather
• Impact decision support services
Pre-decisional
TRWG Organization
04/19/236
TRWG
ProgramManagement
Team
Baseline Team
Requirements Team
QualityTeam
ImplementationTeam
TRWG_004
Pre-decisional
Project Plan RoadmapCompleted 11/24/2010
• Stems from TRWG’s charge to create work plan by end of November 2010
• Defines the activities and deliverables needed between now and October 2011
• Baseline current suite and cost of products and services• Develop requirements of weather information in support
of TFM• Perform gap analysis to determine capabilities of current
products and those needed at NextGen MOC• Develop implementation plan to meet requirements
04/19/23DRAFT7
Pre-decisional
Key Deliverables
04/19/23DRAFT8
Task Participants Lead Service Organization Due Date
Identify current NWS- produced TFM products TRWG ATO-R NWS Personnel
COMPLETE
Complete a high- level plan for NWS-provided TFM information support, including categorical identification of performance measures to be tracked
TRWG ATO-R 11/30/10
Complete mid-term (2015- 2018) performance requirements for NextGen TFM Wx Information
Support
FAA Sub-TRWG
ATO-P 3/31/11
Complete assessment of baseline performance of current NWS TFM products
NWS Sub-TRWG
4/30/11
Complete gap analysis (between baseline performance and 2015- 2018 performance requirements)
TRWG ATO-P 5/15/11
Complete near-term (2012- 2015) performance requirements for NextGen TFM Wx Information Support
TRWG ATO-P 6/15/11
Allocate near- term performance requirements for TFM information support to FAA, NWS AWC, NWS
WFOs, and CWSUs
TRWG ATO-P 7/15/11
Complete implementation plan for TFM information support provided by NWS
TRWG ATO-R 9/1/11
COMPLETE
Pre-decisional9
• Requirements Approach– Iterative process involving Traffic Flow Managers and
NextGen Requirements Team – Two separate surveys completed: one focused on 11 FAA
facilities within Golden Triangle and the other on Collaborative Decision Making groups
– Near-term requirements – Due 4/30/2011– DRAFT NextGen functional requirements for MOC received – 3/23
Requirements Team
Initial set of TFM
requirements3/31/11
Gap analysis5/15/11
Requirements from gap analysis between current
and MOC6/15/11
Comprehensive TFM requirements
7/15/11
TRWG_001
Pre-decisional
2.0 Requirements Analysis & Development Dates Status Responsibility2.1 Baseline 2.1.1Identify current NWS weather info/products 9/23/2010 Complete 2.1.2Identify other weather info/products 9/30/2010 Complete 2.1.3Identify key performance metrics for TFM decisions
(POD/FAR, location error [geospatial verification], timing error, lead-time to onset, lead-time to cessation) 1/24/2011 Complete
2.1.4Describe current baseline products and services 11/1/2010 Complete Baseline ST2.1.5Complete preliminary description of current baseline
requirements (update of November baseline with January TFM metrics) by domain (TRACON, Terminal, En Route)
4/30/2011 Ongoing Baseline ST
2.1.6Complete final baseline based upon new performance measures/metrics (all parameters) 3/31/2012 *contingent
on funding
Requirements Sub-TeamWorkplan with Key Dates
Pre-decisional
2.2 Requirements 2.2.1Mid-term Requirements
2.2.1.1Develop mid-term functional requirements 2.2.1.1.1Distribute for Requirements Sub-Team review 1/31/2011 Complete 2.2.1.1.2Distribute for full TRWG review (deliverable) 3/31/2011 Ongoing
2.2.1.2Develop mid-term performance requirements 2.2.1.2.1Distribute for Requirements Sub-Team review 3/23/2011 Ongoing 2.2.1.2.2Distribute for full TRWG review (deliverable) 3/31/2011 Ongoing
2.3 Gap Analysis 2.3.1Pilot gap analysis process 4/15/2011 2.3.2Complete preliminary gap-analysis between current
capability and MOC requirements 5/15/2011
2.3.3Complete gap analysis based upon new performance measures/metrics. Link to Task 2.6. 5/30/2012
2.4 Allocation 2.4.1Pilot allocation process 4/15/2011 2.4.2Allocate 2018 requirements
2.4.2.1Allocate to agencies and other 6/15/2011 2.4.2.2Allocate within agencies, including R&D 7/15/2011 2.5 Implementation
2.5.1Year-by-Year, 2012-2018, joint plan to meet requirements in terms of performance, procedures, communications, equippage, training, staffing, organization and budget.
9/30/2011 Implementation ST
Workplan with Key Dates (con’t)
Pre-decisional12
Baseline Team
• Baseline Approach and Progress– Four-phase approach
• Phase 1 – assessment of quality of current NWS products and services - Complete
• Phase 2 – comparison of current suite of NWS products and services against the TFM weather requirements – Due 4/30/2011
– Future work to support NextGen TFM• Phase 3 – assessment of performance measures for TFM
decision making• Phase 4 – analysis of end-to-end TFM decision-making, from
the provision of weather information through the decision-making process and the impact on the NAS
Pre-decisional
New Performance Measures for Baseline
04/19/2313
• Weather performance metrics linked to Traffic Management Initiatives provided to NWS
– En Route Performance Metric:• Airspace Flow Programs/En-route area (AFP 5 and 8)
– Lead-time for onset and cessation of thunderstorms with probability greater than 50% of occurrence
– Terminal Performance Metrics:• Ground delay/Ground stops in Terminal areas for the 30 core airports• Lead-time for onset and cessation of: (and timing error)
– Marginal VFR and IFR conditions – Wind direction change of 30 degrees or more with speed GTE 12
knots– TRACON Performance Metrics:
• Lead-time for the onset and the cessation of a thunderstorm with a probability equal to or greater than 50% that are within 150nm (Diameter) of the 30 core terminals
Pre-decisional
Key Progress to Date
04/19/2314
• NWS provided Phase 1 baseline information– Contained in Project Plan Roadmap
• New performance requirements– NWS Performance Branch and NOAA Global Systems
Division• Existing Lead time to IFR software can be expanded to meet
terminal performance measure requirements
• If fully funded, 6-9 months development and implementation
– En Route and TRACON metrics will be based upon National Digital Forecast Database
• Verification of convection expected in Fall 2011
• Additional software development will be necessary to determine accuracy of convection forecasts for outline the area associated with FCA 8 and 5
Pre-decisional15
Quality Management Team
• Quality Management Approach– Baselined to user requirements – Quality Management Plan will provide framework
for assessing and measuring overall quality of products and services
– Plan incorporates all aspects of Quality Assurance– ISO 9000 and WMO standards– Component of Implementation
Pre-decisional16
Implementation Team
• Approach– Notional schedule developed for FY12 through
NextGen MOC that includes: • Identifying FAA activities driven by TFM weather
requirements• Establishing the final technical solution to meet
requirements• Developing performance metrics
– NEED NOTIONAL SCHEDULE Wayne and Pat
Pre-decisional
Key Progress to Date
04/19/2317
• Drafts of key Implementation Plan Components– Risk – Communications– Quality– Training
• Notational Schedule
Pre-decisional
Baseline Aviation Weather Cost
• Capture the current cost of NWS aviation weather support to TFM
• Quantify the cost of providing 11 identified products and services to include:
Pre-decisional
Aviation Weather Costs
Costs will include labor and non-labor items:• Labor
– To produce the product or service
– Labor to maintain the system
• Infrastructure– Facility cost
– Equipment for users and underlying system equipment (tech refresh and maintenance included)
– Software (updates, maintenance)
– Communications
• Costs to Pull from Source Data– Observation data, usage information
Pre-decisional
Cost Project Progress
• Finished with CWSU analysis• Working on AWC contributions to TFM
– CCFP is main product– CIP– FIP– Impact Guidance; Volcanic Ash, GTG, LAMP
• NWS WFO TAFs for core 30 airports– Survey out--over 50% response so far
04/19/23DRAFT20
Pre-decisional21
Concerns/Challenges
• Equipping CWSUs (WARP evolves to NWP)– TRWG agrees AWIPS II is good approach– Agencies corporate position? Funding?
• Customer based, operationally relevant metrics– Who pays?
• NWS understanding and involvement with NWP and NNEW programs
• Leveraging research to operations projects
Pre-decisional
Update on Other Tasks
• TRACON– Convective TDA standardized look and feel– 6 TRACONS Currently following ATL/ZTL Model– ORD/ZAU and MSP/ZMP Digital Solution
• CWSU Off-hour Support– NWS Directives prescribe parent WFO– NWS working to determine an improved way of
providing off-hour support• Investigating providing a single telephone number at
Aviation Weather Center
04/19/2322
Pre-decisional
Summary
• NWS/FAA Team– Develop implementation plan to meet weather
support requirements– Focuses on Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
• Develop baseline (including cost)• Propose Solutions that meet requirements
– Begin Implementation October 2011
• Team is on track with original plan
04/19/23DRAFT23
Pre-decisional
Backup Slides
04/19/23DRAFT24
Pre-decisional
Path to Overcoming Challenges
04/19/23DRAFT26
• Continue advancing digital information• Leverage OSIP and CDM/AWT Projects
– NDFD Enhanced grids for TAFs/TRACON– CoSPA or SREF– Operational Bridging/MITL
• Complete gap analysis• Develop performance measures• Finalize Implementation Plan• Execute
Pre-decisional
Baseline Cost Approach
• Our cost approach will include:– Tapping into a wealth of existing cost data
– Reviewing activity usage information and system usage data
– Pulling from other reports and data
– Accounting for percentage which supports TFM
• Bridging information gaps through interviews with NCEP and a sampling of MICs at both WFOs and CWSUs