Services 2020

Dr. Jason TuellOffice of Climate, Water and

Weather Services

NWS Strategic Plan

VisionKeep Americans safe, healthy, and

productive by delivering trusted weather, water, and climate information

MissionProvide weather, water and climate data,

forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and

enhancement of the national economy

NWS Strategic Plan Goals

1. Improve weather decision services for events that threaten safety, health, the environment, economic productivity, or homeland security

2. Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of Nation’s water supply

3. Enhance climate services to help communities, businesses, and governments understand and adapt to climate related risks

4. Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity

5. Enable integrated environmental services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems

6. Sustain a highly-skilled, professional workforce equipped with the training, tools, and infrastructure to meet our mission

• Services align through the Strategic Plans• Push-Pull relationship between services and S&T

NOAAStrategic Plan

NWSStrategic Plan

Services Roadmap

S&T Roadmap

Programming &Budgeting

Strategic Framework

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• Services align through the Strategic Plans• Push-Pull relationship between services and S&T

Services Roadmap

• Data• Forecasts• Warnings• Rigid &

rule based thresholds

5

2010

20202015We issue

forecasts & warnings to

support decisions

We support decisions

with forecasts,

warnings & environmental information

• Real Impacts on Life

• Relevant to Decisions

• Enabling DecisionsImpact Based Decision Support

Services (IDSS)

Services 2020Impact-based Forecasts and Decision

Support Services

• “High Impact” is different for every user– Changes with locality, time and proximity– NWS definition of warning is too narrow….

• Forecasts that– Are clear, concise and intuitive– Convey uncertainty as required by users– Are increasingly collaborative– Provide information that can be exploited

by others

Translates our best science & expertise to sustained societal

benefits

Integrated Environmental Services & Deepwater Horizon

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Wellhead surface location

NMFS, NOS, NESDISProtected AreasEcosystem Stewardship

NWS, NOS, Ocean, Coastal and Marine

Monitoring, Mapping and Prediction

NOS/NMFS ResourceManagement

NWS, NOS/NMFS oil trajectory

modeling

NESDIS, imagery, data and analysis

tools

Fish & Shellfish

Sediment & Habitat, Deep sea CoralsMarine spp.

Currents Waves & QPFWater Levels

NWS Marine and Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

What is the Services 2020 Roadmap?

• A way to embrace the organizational change that IS coming (Not IF but WHEN)– Translating

emerging needs and internal requirements

• An opportunity for evolving expertise to embrace integrated services

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S2020 defines the path to future operations from a service perspective!

Services 2020Transformational Concepts

• 4D environmental data cube and web services for IDSS

• Common operating picture for all users and services

• Challenge of adding value to gridded information in the face of shrinking production cycles

• Blurring of line between forecasts and warnings

Services 2020Shift in Operational Focus

Now 2020

Decision Support

Scientific Interpretation

Drawing/Writing/Editing

L

evel of

Eff

ort

Services 2020Surface Transportation

Based upon 10 year averages

The Road Weather ChallengeSafety• 1.57M weather-related crashes/yr

• 690,000 injuries/yr• 7,400 fatalities/yr

Mobility• Cost of congestion is $9.45B/yr (for 85 urban areas)

• Causes 25% of non-recurrent delay on freeways

Productivity• Weather-related delay adds $3.4B/yr to freight costs

Sources: NOAA/NWS, USDOT/FHWA

Annually

Integrated Services

• Many new and enhanced services will require – Outside expertise: USGS, CDC, Forest Service,

Interior, Agriculture, other NOAA line offices– Integration of air, weather, water, and

climate data with non-traditional data sets– Collaboration with Partners

• New services that requireoutside expertise– Public Health– Ecosystems– Renewable Energy Predicted chance of encountering

sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007

Roadmap ConstructionA Phased Approach

Three Phases1: Services

Definition2: Service

Operations3: Implementation

Plan

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How we are going to get there?

• Complete Service 2020 Roadmap and detailed implementation plan

• Leverage recommendations from MIC-HIC conference to build momentum– Can be initiated immediately– Can be executed within existing (or with

limited additional) resources– Will move us towards our strategic goals

• Principles for going forward: – Develop pilot projects for selected actions– Partner with NWSEO on all actions

Services 2020 & the Partners

• Increased collaborative activities – sharing forecasts and data– Collaborative forecasts building on

Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and surface transportation project in Salt Lake City

• New areas for collaboration– Private weather enterprise participation will be

crucial to delivering new services to sector users

• Engage the private sector!

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Questions?

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Final Thoughts

• Services Roadmap defines the direction of the NWS

• Paradigm shift to Impact-based Decision Support Services

• Collaboration with the Partners will be essential to maximizing value to America