12/5/2019
1
December 5, 2019
Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
Keith Waters, Ph.D.Center for Regional Analysis
Schar School of Policy and GovernmentGeorge Mason University
The National Economy
U. S. Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2012 Dollars )
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
$18,000
$19,000
$20,000
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions)
%
Q3 2018-Q3 2019 +1.9%
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2
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1-mo. change (in thousands)
total payroll jobs(in millions)
U.S. Payroll Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Since 2010(Jan 2010)
+22.1M
Since 2018(12-mo. ∆)
+2.09M
Sep-Oct 2019
(1 mo. ∆)+128k
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector12-Month Net Change (Oct 2019)
-4
-17
10
-3
11
10
16
-36
61
6
14
22
39
-60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
total = +129k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2018 (000s)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
U. S. Unemployment
October7.0%
U-6
UR
LFPR
October3.6%
October63.3%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
62.25
62.50
62.75
63.00
63.25
63.50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Oct 2018-Oct 2019(12-mo.)change:
U-6 -0.5%UR -0.2%
LFPR +0.4%
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3
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average Weekly Earnings Real Average Weekly Earnings (1982-1984 Dollars)
Oct 2018-Oct 2019% change(MOTYC)
Avg HourlyWages
+3.03%
Avg WeeklyEarnings+2.74%
Real AvgWeekly
Earnings+0.95%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Weekly EarningsU. S., Total Private, Across all Industries
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Expectations Index
Present Situation Index
Nov 2019Pres. = 166.9Exp. = 97.9
(1985 = 100)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales
U. S. Home SalesNew and Existing (2013-Present)
(000s)
Source: U.S. Census (New Home Sales) [Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate], National Association of Realtors (Existing Home Sales)
(000s)
Existing Home Sales12-month change
Oct 18 – Oct 19+4.60%
New Home Sales12-month change
Oct 18 – Oct 19+31.6%
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The Washington Economy
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA (2012-2019)
2,900
2,950
3,000
3,050
3,100
3,150
3,200
3,250
3,300
3,350
3,400
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
thousands thousands
Oct 2019Total: 3.37M
Oct 18-Oct 19+52.3k
Employment Composition by SectorWashington MSA October 2019
1.7%
1.8%
2.1%
2.2%
4.7%
4.9%
6.2%
8.0%
10.2%
10.5%
10.8%
13.5%
23.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activites
Construction
Other Services
Retail Trade
State & Local Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Federal Government
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
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Job Change by SectorWashington MSA
Oct 2018 – Oct 2019(000s) Total = +52,300
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0.6
-1.1
2.5
0.4
0.5
2.7
0.9
-4.5
17.2
2.5
-0.5
9.9
21.2
-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transport/Utilities
Information
Financial
Construction
Other Services
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Federal Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
(Ranked by Size in 2018)
Federal GovernmentWashington MSA
Oct 2018 – Oct 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisOct 2019 total: 363.1k
(000s) (000s)
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MOTYC
Total Jobs
Oct 2018-Oct 2019
-0.5k
Federal Spending in the Washington MSAFiscal Years 1980-2019
4.2 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.7 9.0 10
.7
11
.4
11
.5
11
.9
12
.6
14
.6
15
.6
16
.1
17
.9
19
.4
20
.8
21
.7
24
.8
27
.7
29
.3
32
.1 37
.1 44
.0
52
.6
54
.5
57
.1
59
.1
67
.9
75
.8 80
.0
78
.0
76
.0
70
.6
73
.1
74
.0 78
.5 83
.5 88
.7
82
.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
| FY80-89 = $83.9B |
| FY00-09 = $509.5B |
| FY90-99 = $191.2B |
($ Billions)
Total = $1,569.3 Billion
Source: USAspending.gov
| FY10-19 = $784.7B |
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-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
MOTYC
Total Jobs
Oct 18-Oct 19+21.2k
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)
600.0
620.0
640.0
660.0
680.0
700.0
720.0
740.0
760.0
780.0
800.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0Professional, Science & Tech MOTYC Admin Support & Waste Mgmt MOTYC Professional & Business Services Employees (total)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
(000s) (000s)
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia (2012-2019)
thousands thousands
Oct 18-Oct 19+7.7k
Oct 2019Total: 805.3K
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Job Change by SectorDistrict of Columbia
Oct 2018 – Oct 2019
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.3
1.0
-0.7
0.6
-0.3
1.2
1.3
1.0
4.2
-0.7
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transp. & Util.
Construction
Information
Retail Trade
Financial
State & Local Govt
Other Services
Leisure & Hosp.
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
(000s) Total +7,700k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 2018)
880
900
920
940
960
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland (2012-2019)
thousands thousands
Oct 2019Total: 1.02M
Oct 18-Oct 19+8.3k
Job Change by SectorSuburban Maryland
Oct 2018 – Oct 2019
-0.3
1.0
0.2
0.2
-1.0
0.5
0.2
-0.5
1.2
-1.6
4.2
2.6
1.6
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Information
Transp. & Util.
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Federal Govt.
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total: +8,300
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 2018)
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1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia (2012-2019)
thousands thousands
Oct 18-Oct 19+26.7k
Oct 2019Total: 1.5M
Job Change by SectorNorthern Virginia
Oct 2018 – Oct 2019
0.6
-1.1
-1.3
0.1
1.1
2.5
0.6
-0.2
-1.5
8.0
3.5
1.7
12.7
-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Information
Transp. & Util.
Construction
Financial
Other Services
Federal Govt.
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total +26,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 2018)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Oct 2009 Oct 2010 Oct 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Oct 2014 Oct 2015 Oct 2016 Oct 2017 Oct 2018 Oct 2019
Oct 2019DC 5.3US 3.6SMD 3.1MSA 2.8NVA 2.0
Unemployment Rates in the WMSABy Sub-State Area
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
%
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9
15 Largest Job Markets Job ChangeOct 2018 – Oct 2019
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120(000s)
Washington +52,300
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
•Mixed signals•Global slowdown, Brexit, Germany teetering on recession
•Trade wars: China, Now France (EU)
•Corporate earnings still good
•Wages finally reflecting tight labor markets
•Consumer confidence softening but good
Outlook/Discussion for 2020
•Fed rates: ??? If we see weakness, 2 rate cuts
•US GDP growth 1.9-2.1% depending on admin actions in summer (election year)
•Wage gains soften, inflation barely moving (energy stable)
•Equity markets (volatility, some gain, China trade deal) (hype, hype, hype).
•DC Area Employment +20k•Tight labor markets slowing potential job growth
Outlook/Discussion for 2020
12/5/2019
10
Thank You
cra.gmu.edu