Copyright © SRC 2012Copyright © SRC 2012
Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme
Mark Johnston and Elaine QualtiereSaskatchewan Research Council
15 February 2012
Copyright © SRC 2012
Alberta SRD:– Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests
(complete)
– Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture (ongoing)
Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch– Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB
– Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of southeastern MB
Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service– Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment
– Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply
Overview of Forestry Activities and Case Studies
Copyright © SRC 2012
Report focused on Forest Fringe
Applies generally to southern boreal forests in the prairie region
Includes impacts on ecosystem services; risk assessment; and adaptation options
AB SRD: Literature Review
Copyright © SRC 2012
AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires
Scenario Model 2020s 2050s 2080s
A1B CGCM 17.6±4.9 20.8±5.4 23.5±5.0
Hadley 17.6±5.2 21.1±5.3 25.1±6.1
IPSL 18.1±4.6 22.7±5.3 27.7±6.5
A2 CGCM 17.5±4.6 20.6±5.3 25.6±6.0
Hadley 17.2±5.2 21.0±5.0 26.5±6.6
IPSL 18.4±4.8 22.7±5.3 28.8±6.2
B1 CGCM 17.2±4.7 19.3±5.4 21.2±5.1
Hadley 17.4±5.6 19.8±5.0 23.1±5.6
IPSL 18.2±4.8 22.0±5.2 24.5±5.9
Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the 1979-2010 Average (days)
Copyright © SRC 2012
Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to explore potential impacts of climate change on forest management in the Sandilands provincial forest (southeastern Manitoba).
The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the assessment.
The assessment will identify potential adaptation options and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be applied to other areas within the province.
SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to assess anticipated climate change impacts.
MB Conservation: Climate Change
Copyright © SRC 2012
MB Conservation: Climate Change
MUVariable Season Years Min Max Mean Tif_Files
24Mean Max Temp (ºC) ANNUAL 1971-2000 6.98 8.23 7.85MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_ANNUAL.TIF
24Mean Max Temp (ºC) AUTUMN 1971-2000 7.51 8.99 8.58MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_AUTUMN.TIF
24Mean Max Temp (ºC) SPRING 1971-2000 7.92 9.21 8.82MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SPRING.TIF
24Mean Max Temp (ºC) SUMMER 1971-2000 24.31 25.21 24.62MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SUMMER.TIF
Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for current and future time slices linked to maps
Copyright © SRC 2012
MU 24
Copyright © SRC 2012
Multiple Vulnerabilities of Saskatchewan’s Island Forests
Under Climate Change
Copyright © SRC 2012Copyright © SRC 2012
Melfort
Prince Albert
Saskatchewan Island Forests
Province ofSaskatchewan
0 30 6015 Kilometers
¨
Island Forests
Torch
Nesbit
Fort a la Corne
Canwood
1:933 848
Copyright © SRC 2012
Broad scale landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances– Succession– Disturbance– Seed dispersal– Forest management– Carbon dynamics– Climate change affects
What is LANDIS-II?
Wind
Fire
Cohort Biomass
Insects
Spatially Interactive Landscape
Harvest
Copyright © SRC 2012
Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)
Copyright © SRC 2012
Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)
Copyright © SRC 2012
LANDIS – Future Fire
Copyright © SRC 2012
Changes in Forest types
Non-Forest Soft wood Hardwood Muskeg
Copyright © SRC 2012
Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce estimates of annual biomass production (NPP)
Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood volume
Generated these estimate for current and future climate
Used these data to generate yield curves for main forest types – used in wood supply analysis
Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest management plan for the Island Forests
Wood Supply and Climate Change in the Island Forests
Copyright © SRC 2012
Example yield curves for jack pine:Constant CO2
Copyright © SRC 2012
Example yield curves for jack pine:Increasing CO2