DIME – FRAGILE STATESDUBAI, MAY 31 – JUNE 4
Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP)
Concept Note for Impact Evaluation
Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak
Key Issues
75% of population live in rural areas where agriculture is the primary activity;
High unemployment and poverty rates;
Shortage of business planning, management, and marketing know-how (BDS);
Shortage of access to formal, affordable, suitable credit
AREDP
PDO To Improve employment opportunities
and income of rural men and women, and sustainability of targeted local enterprises.
Components A. Community-led Enterprise
Development B. SME Development C. Program Management Support
Component A Key Interventions Under Component A
Facilitating the formation of Savings Groups and delivering financial literacy training
Federating Savings Groups into Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) in order to provide access to credit
Facilitating the formation of Enterprise Groups and delivery of Business Development Services
Research questions What is the impact of facilitating the formation of
community-based financial institutions and provision of financial literacy training on access to credit & household incomes? (including attitudes towards credit and lending)
What is the added impact of aggregating entrepreneurs into productive groups and provision of BDS on the following? Enterprise sustainability/profitability Access to markets Employment creation
What is the disaggregated effect of program interventions on women in particular?
Indicators
•Improved financial literacy skills & attitudes towards credit and lending•Total amount of loans accessed, number of loans accessed, percentage of loans repaid, Changes in investment
•Number of household members gainfully employed, income, consumption, assetsHousehold
Level•Access to markets•Percentage in turnover, revenue, and profit•Number of new jobs created •Number of women owned enterprises•SustainabilityEnterprise
Level
•Frequency of meetings, duration of savings group•Amount saved by group, amount lent by group, number of loans given, percentage of loans recovered
•intra-group cohesion & trust, inter-group cohesion & trust
Group Level
•Number of VSLAs & producer associations formed•Second order effect on public goodsVillage Level
Identification strategy
Total CDCs formed by NSP
AREDP-eligible CDCsDistrict Randomization for 3-year rollout
Year-1 Roll-outAssignment to sub-interventions & control
SIT-1 SIT-2 Control
Sample Universe
250 CDCs125
CDCs125
CDCs
• 2500 SGs• 1000 EGs• 37,500
HHs • 1250 SGs• 18,750
HHs
• 18,750 HHs
SIT-1•SG formation•VSLA
Federation•FinLit•EG Formation•BDS provision
SIT-2•SG formation•VSLA
Federation•FinLit
Control
Sampling Strategy
(Actual #s of HHs and Villages TBD)
# CDCs in SIT-1
All CDCs in SIT-2
Control
HHs member of SGs
HHs member of EGs
HHs membe
r in both
HHs membe
r in neither
Timeline
Design & Randomization
First round of Data Collection
Midline Data Collection
Endline Data Collection
D&R – 2 monthsFR – 1 yearMidline – 2 yearsEndline – 5 years
Impact evaluation teamAREDP
IE Specialist M&E field staff (for data
coll.) Head of Office of M&L,
AREDP Program Mgmt Staff
DIME Field Coordinator Research Team
Academia Lead Researcher
Estimated budget
AREDP Data collection Data entry & cleaning Data Analysis
DIME Impact Evaluation Data Analysis Field Coord & Technical
Assistance
AREDP Budget allocated for M&E – >$1.5million
Parting QuestionsMeasuring social cohesion
DIME – FRAGILE STATESDUBAI, MAY 31 – JUNE 4
Fin
Questions & Discussion