DIME – FRAGILE STATESDUBAI, MAY 31 – JUNE 4

Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP)

Concept Note for Impact Evaluation

Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak

Key Issues

75% of population live in rural areas where agriculture is the primary activity;

High unemployment and poverty rates;

Shortage of business planning, management, and marketing know-how (BDS);

Shortage of access to formal, affordable, suitable credit

AREDP

PDO To Improve employment opportunities

and income of rural men and women, and sustainability of targeted local enterprises.

Components A. Community-led Enterprise

Development B. SME Development C. Program Management Support

Component A Key Interventions Under Component A

Facilitating the formation of Savings Groups and delivering financial literacy training

Federating Savings Groups into Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) in order to provide access to credit

Facilitating the formation of Enterprise Groups and delivery of Business Development Services

Research questions What is the impact of facilitating the formation of

community-based financial institutions and provision of financial literacy training on access to credit & household incomes? (including attitudes towards credit and lending)

What is the added impact of aggregating entrepreneurs into productive groups and provision of BDS on the following? Enterprise sustainability/profitability Access to markets Employment creation

What is the disaggregated effect of program interventions on women in particular?

Indicators

•Improved financial literacy skills & attitudes towards credit and lending•Total amount of loans accessed, number of loans accessed, percentage of loans repaid, Changes in investment

•Number of household members gainfully employed, income, consumption, assetsHousehold

Level•Access to markets•Percentage in turnover, revenue, and profit•Number of new jobs created •Number of women owned enterprises•SustainabilityEnterprise

Level

•Frequency of meetings, duration of savings group•Amount saved by group, amount lent by group, number of loans given, percentage of loans recovered

•intra-group cohesion & trust, inter-group cohesion & trust

Group Level

•Number of VSLAs & producer associations formed•Second order effect on public goodsVillage Level

Identification strategy

Total CDCs formed by NSP

AREDP-eligible CDCsDistrict Randomization for 3-year rollout

Year-1 Roll-outAssignment to sub-interventions & control

SIT-1 SIT-2 Control

Sample Universe

250 CDCs125

CDCs125

CDCs

• 2500 SGs• 1000 EGs• 37,500

HHs • 1250 SGs• 18,750

HHs

• 18,750 HHs

SIT-1•SG formation•VSLA

Federation•FinLit•EG Formation•BDS provision

SIT-2•SG formation•VSLA

Federation•FinLit

Control

Sampling Strategy

(Actual #s of HHs and Villages TBD)

# CDCs in SIT-1

All CDCs in SIT-2

Control

HHs member of SGs

HHs member of EGs

HHs membe

r in both

HHs membe

r in neither

Timeline

Design & Randomization

First round of Data Collection

Midline Data Collection

Endline Data Collection

D&R – 2 monthsFR – 1 yearMidline – 2 yearsEndline – 5 years

Impact evaluation teamAREDP

IE Specialist M&E field staff (for data

coll.) Head of Office of M&L,

AREDP Program Mgmt Staff

DIME Field Coordinator Research Team

Academia Lead Researcher

Estimated budget

AREDP Data collection Data entry & cleaning Data Analysis

DIME Impact Evaluation Data Analysis Field Coord & Technical

Assistance

AREDP Budget allocated for M&E – >$1.5million

Parting QuestionsMeasuring social cohesion

DIME – FRAGILE STATESDUBAI, MAY 31 – JUNE 4

Fin

Questions & Discussion