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SMU Classification: Restricted
XUEYING BIAN (边雪莹)
School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://bxyxdd.wixsite.com/website
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Cell: +86 13384853619 / +65 93462321
Personal Information: Date of birth: 1991/02/14 Sex: Female Citizenship: Chinese
Undergraduate Studies:
B.A. in International Economics and Trade (Rank 2/91), Nankai University, 2010-2014
Exchange, University of Glasgow, 2012
Masters Level Work: M.Phil. in Economics and Finance (Full scholarship), CEMFI, 2014-2016
Graduate Studies:
Singapore Management University (Full scholarship), 2016 to present
Thesis Title: Three Essays on Empirical Finance
Expected Completion Date: June, 2021
Thesis Committee and References:
Jun Yu (co-advisor) Jun Tu (co-advisor)
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 6828 0858
Email: [email protected]
Lee Kong Chian School of Business
Singapore Management University
50 Stamford Road
Singapore 178899
Phone: +65 6828 0764
Email: [email protected]
Daniel Preve
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 6826 1352
Email: [email protected]
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Strategic Management, FinTech
Secondary fields: Energy Economics
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching Experience:
Instructor:
2019 - 2020 Intermediate Mathematics for Economics, Singapore Management University
2017 - 2018 Theory of Dynamic Programming (Summer Camp), Singapore Management University
Teaching Assistant:
2019 - 2020 Analysis of Derivative Securities, Singapore Management University
2019 - 2020 Analysis of Equity Securities, Singapore Management University
2017 - 2019 Advanced Macroeconomics (II), Singapore Management University
2017 - 2019 Derivative Securities, Singapore Management University
2016 - 2017 Introductory Statistics, Singapore Management University
Teaching Certificate:
Certificate for graduate instructor, Center for English Communication, Singapore Management University
Research Experience:
2019 - 2020 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Research (joint with WeBank)
Professional Activities:
2015 Internship at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Madrid, Spain
Conference and Seminar Presentations:
Invited Talks:
2020 University of International Business and Economics, School of International Trade and
Economics
University of International Business and Economics, School of International Banking &
Finance
Tianjin University, College of Management and Economics
Conference Presentations:
2020 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, online
2020 17th Chinese Finance Annual Meeting, online
2020 5th Qi Lu Youth Forum, Shandong University, online
2019 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Xiamen, China
2018 Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Mallorca, Spain
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:
2020 Multidisciplinary Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University
2019 Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University
2019 Graduate Instructor Fellowship, Singapore Management University
2016 - 2020 Ph.D. Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University
2018 Ph.D. Student Life Award Winner, Singapore Management University
2017 First Year Best Performance Award, Singapore Management University
2014 - 2016 Master Full Scholarship, CEMFI
2012 & 2013 Scholarship for Academic Excellence (Top 5%), Nankai University
2011 Tianjin Government Scholarship (Top 1%), Tianjin Municipal People’s Government
2011 & 2014 Merit Student of Nankai University, Nankai University
Publications:
“Incentives for Information Provision: Energy Efficiency in the Spanish Rental Market”, with
Natalia Fabra, Energy Economics (2020): 104813 (SSCI, JCR Q1)
SMU Classification: Restricted
Research Papers:
“Return Cross-Predictability in Firms with Similar Employee Satisfaction” , with Sergei
Sarkissian, Jun Tu and Ran Zhang (Job Market Paper)
Presented at 2020 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting; 17th Chinese Finance Annual
Meeting; 2019 Workshop on Asset Pricing and Risk Management at the National University of
Singapore; and seminars in Fudan University, Peking University HBSC Business School, Jinan
University, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, and East China University of Science and
Technology.
Abstract: This study uses Glassdoor data and finds that the returns of similar employee satisfaction
(SES) firms predict focal firm returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on the lagged returns of SES firms
yields the Fama-French six-factor alpha of 135 bps per month. The observed predictability is distinct
from existing inter-firm momentum effects and cannot be explained by risk-based arguments. The return
predictability across SES firms may reflect a new type of cross-firm link derived from the knowledge
spillovers about employee welfare policies via social transmission (e.g., personal interchange among
employees from different firms).
“Investee Peers and the Imitation of Corporate Social Strategy”, with Xinhao Qiao and Jinyu He
Presented at 2020 Academy of Management Conference; 2019 Asia Management Research Consortium;
2019 HKUST Macro-brown Bag; and seminars in CEIBS and the University of Auckland.
Strategic Management Journal, Under Review
Abstract: As institutional ownership becomes prevalent, firms are linked to a unique group of investee
peers with whom they share common investors. To compete for limited financial resources, each firm
likely refers to its investee peers and imitates those behaviors deemed desirable by the investors. In this
study, we hypothesize and find that the high CSR performance of investee peers motivates the focal firm
to improve its own CSR performance. The investee peers’ influence remains after controlling for possible
selection and propagation effects. Furthermore, the peer effect is more pronounced if the firm’s investee
peers are linked by dedicated (versus transient) institutional investors or its CEO has higher equity
ownership. However, the firm’s prior financial performance weakens the investee peer effect on CSR.
“Tweet More or Less: How does CEO Language Skill Impact Firm Stock Return?”, with Ran
Zhang
Abstract: This paper studies the effects of CEO tweeting on firm valuation based on the U.S. sample
firms from 2012 to 2018. By creating a measure of CEO language skill, we show that for firms associated
with CEOs that are good at communicating, firms can benefit from CEO’s higher exposure on social
media, while for firms with low CEO language skills, firms are better off when CEO speak less on social
media. We find the results hold across different countries (such as France, Germany, and the United
Kingdom). The possible mechanisms behind our documented findings are shown to be limited attention
and limits to arbitrage. And our documented effects are more likely to be explained by behavior bias
other than risk explanations.
Work in Progress:
“Director Network and Return Predictability”, with Xinhao Qiao and Jun Tu
Presented at 2019 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society.
“Setting Backfire, How Nonbinding Shareholder Voting Behaviors Affects Board Monitoring ”, with
Jiatao Li and Xinhao Qiao
“Do Small Institutional Owners Count and How? Evidence on Corporate Social Responsibility
Performance”, with Xinhao Qiao
“Board Facial Similarity and Firm Stock Returns”, with Jun Tu and Ran Zhang
Computer Skills: R, Python, SAS, MATLAB, Stata, Latex
SMU Classification: Restricted
Languages: Mandarin (Native), English (Fluent), Spanish (Elementary)
SMU Classification: Restricted
CHEN Han
School of Economics, Singapore Management University
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Handphone/Cell: +86 15806007938
Personal Information: Date of Birthday: 1st January 1990
Gender: Male
Citizenship: China
Undergraduate Studies:
BA, Economics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, 2012.
Masters Level Work:
MSc, Financial Econometrics, School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2014
Graduate Studies:
Singapore Management University, 2020
Thesis Title: “Essays on Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models”
Thesis Committee and References:
Jun Yu(advisor) Yichong Zhang
Lee Kong Chian Professor of
Economics and Finance
School of Economics
Lee Kong Chian School of Business
Singapore Management University
Phone: +65 68280858
Email: [email protected]
Assistant Professor of Economics
Lee Kong Chian Fellow
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
Phone: +65 68280881 Email: [email protected]
Daniel Preve
Associate Professor of Economics
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
Phone: +65 68261352
Email: [email protected]
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: Bayesian Econometrics
Secondary fields: Financial Econometrics, Time Series Analysis
Teaching Experience: Teaching Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University
2015-2020: Financial Econometrics (Graduate)
2016-2019: Advanced Econometrics (Graduate)
2019-2020: Introduction to Statistics
Research Experience: 2014-2016: Research Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University
2019-2020: Research Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: 2015-2019: Graduate Full Scholarship (Ph.D. Program), Ministry of Education, Singapore
2005: First prize Award, National Olympiad informatics in Province, China
Seminar Presentation: 2020 Capital University of Economics and Business, International School of Economics and
Management
Working Papers: “Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models based on Generalized Fisher Transformation” with
Yijie Fei and Jun Yu (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: Modeling multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) faces a few challenges when both
variances and covariances are time-varying. The main challenges come from the assurance of positive-
definiteness of the variance-covariance matrix and the statistical analysis of MSV models. In this paper,
we introduce a new MSV model which is based on the generalized Fisher transformation of Archakov
and Hansen (2018). This specification is highly flexible where the variance-covariance matrix is always
positive-definiteness. Moreover, driving factors of volatilities and correlations are separated in the
model. A Particle Gibbs Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) method is proposed to conduct Bayesian analysis
of the model. The method facilitates the Bayesian model comparison. The MSV model and the
estimation method are extended to include realized measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed
method works well for the MSV model. Empirical studies based on exchange-rate and equity returns
suggest that the proposed MSV model provides superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance.
“Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Flexible Dynamic Correlations, Leverage effect
and Heavy-tailed error” with Yijie Fei and Jun Yu
Abstract: We consider an extension of flexible multivariate stochastic volatility model based on
generalized Fisher transformation by incorporating the leverage effect and heavy-tailed error distribution.
A particle-filter-based Gibbs sampling algorithm is adopted for the inference of the model. Simulation
results indicate that our algorithm performs well when a small number of particles are used. An empirical
study on three stock indices is provided. In summary, we find strong evidence of the leverage effect as
well as heavy tails in the error.
Working in Progress: “A Bayesian Method for Fractional Gaussian Noise” with Jun Yu
“Bayesian Estimation for Fractional O-U Process with Applications in Financial Time Series” with
Jun Yu
“Bayesian Analysis of Fractional Stochastic Volatility Model” with Jun Yu
SMU Classification: Restricted
Computer Skills: MATLAB, R, Python, STATA, Eviews, Latex, Linux
Languages: English (Fluent), Chinese (Native), Japanese(Basic)
SMU Classification: Restricted
RENJING CHEN
School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://renjingchen.wixsite.com/renjingchen
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Handphone/Cell: (65) 9015-3203
Personal Information: Female, Chinese
Undergraduate Studies:
Bachelor, Economics, Hubei University of Economics, 2009-2013
Masters Level Work:
Master, Economics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, 2013-2016
Graduate Studies:
Singapore Management University, 2016 to present Thesis Title: The Impacts of GATT/WTO on Firm-level Trade Structure: 1978-2015
Expected Completion Date: June 2021
Thesis Committee and References:
Pao-Li Chang (advisor) Yuan Mei School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 (65) 6828-0830
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 (65) 6808-5212 [email protected]
Amanda Jakobsson
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 (65) 6808-5467
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: International Trade
Secondary fields: Chinese Economy
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Certificate:
Certificate for Graduate Instructor, Center for English Communication, SMU
Teaching Assistant:
2020 Economics and Society
2019 Labor Economics 2018 Introductory Economics 2017 Economics of Globalization 2016 Human Capital and Economics of Education
Research Experience:
Research Grant:
2017-2019 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71603061)
Co-principal Investigator
Title: Study on the Effect of Population Structure on the Housing Demand of Urban
Residents: Influence Mechanism and Empirical Study
2014-2017 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71403061)
Co-principal Investigator
Title: Households Consumption Risk Sharing in China: Empirical Investigation, Welfare
Analysis, and Policies Evaluations
2015-2016 National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No.15ZDA013)
Research Assistant
Title: Study on Establishing a Multi-point Supported Pattern of Consumption Growth in the
“New Normal” Economy
2013-2016 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71373057)
Research Assistant
Title: Study on the Effect of Population Structure on Household Consumption in China:
Micro-mechanism, Empirical Test, and Macro-policies
Research Assistant Experience:
2018 Research Assistant for Professor Yuan Mei
2013-2016 Research Assistant for Professor Xingjian Yi
2014-2016 Research Assistant for Professor Te Lai
Professional Activities:
Member: American Economic Association, Econometric Society
Conference and Seminar Presentations:
2020 Chinese Economic Association (Europe/UK) Conference, University of Surrey (scheduled)
China Economics Annual Conference, Peking University HSBC Business School (scheduled)
IAER Seminar, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics
New Structural Seminar, Xi'an Jiaotong University and Peking University
Young Economist Society
2015 China Economics Annual Conference, East China Normal University
China Household Finance Forum, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
SMU Classification: Restricted
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:
2020-2021 Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University 2016-2020 Graduate Full Scholarship (Ph.D. Program), Singapore Management University 2014-2015 Outstanding Student Cadre, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Research Papers:
“The Impacts of GATT/WTO on Firm-level Trade Structure: 1978-2015” with Pao-Li Chang and
Wei Jin (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: In this paper, we develop an estimation procedure to identify the partial (direct) effects of the
GATT/WTO membership on variable and fixed trade costs, respectively. This procedure extends the
techniques of Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003) on the structural relationship of multilateral resistance
terms and of Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) on the structural modeling of trade incidence. We
then develop a general equilibrium framework (that allows for the presence of zero trade) to simulate the
impact of variable, fixed, and total trade cost changes on the firm-level trade structure (including the
bilateral export productivity cutoff, the weighted/unweighted extensive margin of export, the intensive
margin, and the mass of active firms), the bilateral trade flow, and the aggregate welfare due to the
GATT/WTO system (given the trade cost effects estimated in the first stage) for the period 1978-2015.
“Information Asymmetry and Dynamic Souring: Evidence from Chinese Firms” (under review)
Abstract: Information asymmetry can create substantial frictions when importing firms find it difficult to acquire information about foreign products. I use detailed China Customs Data to show that firms tend to import from countries with which they already have an importing relationship. Motivated by this fact, I develop a dynamic model describing firms’ decisions on their choice of sourcing country. This model incorporates both communication cost and satisfaction uncertainty, which are lower with familiar countries than with unfamiliar ones. Using this model, I estimate the benefits of importing from familiar countries measured by the probability improvement of receiving satisfactory products. I find that this probability can be improved by a maximum of 89.0 percent when importing from familiar countries instead of from unfamiliar ones. These results also support the prediction that the effective unit cost of intermediates is lower when importing from familiar countries.
“Diligence Redeems Stupidity: Substitution between Managerial Effort and Financial
Development” with Wei Jin and Yuting Chen (under review)
Abstract: This paper presents a heterogeneous firm model à la Melitz (2003) in which firms suffer from
both the agency problem internally and financial constraints externally. We show that conditional on the
same raw productivity draw, managers of potential exporting firms around the export cutoff in financially
underdeveloped countries exert more effort than their counterparts in financially developed countries, so
as to induce their owners to export. This finding has very positive policy implications, as firms in
financially underdeveloped countries can compete with their peers in financially developed countries by
exerting more managerial effort. We find clear empirical evidence for this theoretical prediction by using
the World Management Survey data for more than 7,000 firms in 20 countries during 2002-2012.
Work in Progress: “Product Likeness and the Impact of Non-tariff Measures” with Yuan Mei and Shenxi Song
Computer Skills: MATLAB, Stata, LaTeX, Python
Languages:
English (fluent), Chinese (native)
SMU Classification: Restricted
FEI, YIJIE
School of Economics, Singapore Management University Personal Webpage: yijiefei.weebly.com
Email: [email protected]
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Handphone/Cell: (86) 13621857352
Personal Information: Date of Birth: 11/07/1992, Shanghai
Gender: Male
Citizenship: Chinese
Undergraduate Studies:
B.Econ., major in Taxation, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 2014.
Exchange student, University of Canterbury (New Zealand), Jul 2012-Dec 2012
Masters Level Work: M.A., Economics, Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, 2015
Graduate Studies:
Ph.D., Economics, Singapore Management University, Aug 2015-Aug 2020
(Interdisciplinary PhD program in Economics and Finance) Thesis Title: Essays on Time Series and Financial Econometrics
Thesis Committee and References:
Jun Yu (advisor) Peter C.B. Phillips
Lee Kong Chian Professor of Economics and
Finance
School of Economics and
Lee Kong Chian School of Business
Singapore Management University
Phone: +65 6828 0858
Email: [email protected]
Sterling Emeritus Professor of Economics &
Professor of Statistics
Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics
Yale University
Box 208281
New Haven, Connecticut USA 06520-8281
Phone: (203) 432-3695
Email: [email protected]
Yichong Zhang
Assistant Professor of Economics
Lee Kong Chian Fellow
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
SMU Classification: Restricted
Phone: +65 6828 0881
Email: [email protected]
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: Financial Econometrics, Time Series Analysis
Secondary fields: Empirical Finance, Econometric Theory
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant:
Singapore Management University
2019-2020 Economics of Globalization, Prof. Bei Hong
2017-2019 Intermediate Macroeconomics, Prof. Juliana Yu Sun
2017 International Macroeconomics (PhD level), Prof. Juliana Yu Sun
2016 International Macroeconomics (UG level), Prof. Ruanjai Suwantaradon
University of British Columbia
2015 Economic Analysis of Law, Prof. Robert Gateman
Professional Experience Short-term Consultant, Transport Global Expertise and Knowledge Unit, World Bank,
2020.07-2020.10 (Providing statistical analysis on the construction of Port Efficiency Index)
Seminar Presentation
IAER Research Seminar, Dongbei University of Economics and Finance, 2020.9
Singapore Management University Research Seminar, 2018
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: SMU Presidential Doctoral Fellowship for Interdisciplinary Research, 2015-2019
Ph.D. Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2015-2020
UBC International Student Tuition Award, 2014-2015
Publications: Limit Theory for Mildly Integrated Process with Intercept, Economics Letters, Volume 163, February
2018, Pages 98–101
Working Papers:
“Testing Predictability in the Presence of Level Shifts” (Job Market Paper, joint with Peter C.B.Phillips)
Abstract: This paper explores the impact of level shifts on inference concerning predictability. The limit
distribution of the least-squares-based t-statistic that is commonly used for testing predictability is shown
to depend on the magnitude of the shifts as well as the degree of persistence in the predictors. The usual
t-statistic has a standard limiting normal distribution only when the predictors are stationary. Asymptotic
theory for instrumental-variable-based tests is derived and shown to be non-standard unless all shifts in
the predicted variable shrink to zero fast enough. The results point to the risks of spurious outcomes in
predictability testing when level shifts are present and ignored. To mitigate this weakness in existing tests,
a sample-splitting procedure is proposed for inference, which is shown to work well in simulations. Some
finite sample issues introduced by moderate breaks are discussed. Empirical applications of the new
procedures are implemented in predicting monthly and quarterly absolute US stock returns and quarterly
growth in a US house price index.
“Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models based on Generalized Fisher Transformation” (joint with Jun Yu and Han Chen)
Abstract: Modeling multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) faces a few challenges when both variances
and covariances are time-varying. The main challenges come from the assurance of positive definiteness
of the variance-covariance matrix and the statistical analysis of MSV models. In this paper, we introduce
a new MSV model which is based on the generalized Fisher transformation of Archakov and Hansen
SMU Classification: Restricted
(2018a). This specification is highly flexible such that driving factors of volatilities and correlations are
separated. A Particle Gibbs Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) method is proposed to conduct Bayesian analysis
of the model. The method facilitates the Bayesian model comparison. The MSV model can be extended
to include realized measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well for the MSV
model. Empirical studies based on exchange-rate and equity returns suggest that the proposed MSV model
provides superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance over alternative specifications.
“Robust Joint Test for Predictability and Structural Break” (under review)
Abstract: This article is concerned with the joint test of predictability and stability. Under the null
hypothesis, we assume that potential predictors exhibit no predictability and meanwhile no structural break
occurs. We first show that the recently proposed IVX estimator provides robust inference for the structural
break in nonstationary predictive regressions, while least squares (LS) estimator suffers huge size
distortion. Based on this finding, we consider a new test combining IVX with the sup-Wald statistic. The
limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived and shown to vary with predictors' persistence level.
Though the test statistic is non-pivotal under (near-)integration, simulation results suggest that using
critical values of the pivotal distribution derived under (mild-)stationarity delivers satisfactory finite
sample inference under various settings. An application to the predictability of US stock returns highlights
the usefulness of the new test.
Work in Progress:
“MSV-GFT Model with Leverage Effect and Heavy-tailed Errors” (joint with Han Chen and Jun Yu)
We consider an extension of flexible multivariate stochastic volatility model based on generalized Fisher
transformation by incorporating the leverage effect and heavy-tailed error distribution. A particle-filter-
based Gibbs sampling algorithm is adopted for inference. Simulation results indicate that our algorithm
performs well when a small number of particles are used. An empirical study on three stock indices is
provided. In summary, we find strong evidence of the leverage effect as well as heavy tails in the error.
Computer Skills: MATLAB, R, LaTeX, Stata, EViews
Languages: Chinese (Native), English (Fluent)
Qualifications: CFA (passed level II), FRM (passed both parts)
SMU Classification: Restricted
JI FENG
School of Economics, Singapore Management University Email address: [email protected]
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Cell: +65 86516980
Personal Information: Date of Birth: 1991/04/13
Sex: Male
Citizenship: Chinese
Undergraduate Studies:
Bachelor of Science, Applied Mathematics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), 2013
Masters Level Studies: Master of Economics, Quantitative Economics, Huazhong University of Science and
Technology, 2016
Graduate Studies:
Singapore Management University, 2016 to present
Thesis Title: Essays on Panel and Factor Models
Expected Completion Date: June, 2021
Thesis Committee and References:
Liangjun Su (advisor) Sainan Jin Lee Kong Chian Professor of Economics
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 68280386
Email: [email protected]
Professor of Economics
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 68280431
Email: [email protected]
Yichong Zhang Jun Tu Assistant Professor of Economics
Lee Kong Chian Fellow
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Associate Professor of Finance
Lee Kong Chian School of Business
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
SMU Classification: Restricted
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 68280881
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +65 68280764
Email: [email protected]
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: Econometric theory
Secondary fields: Panel Data Models, Financial econometrics, Applied econometrics
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University
2016-2017: Introductory Economics (Prof. Bei Hong)
2017-2019: Advanced Econometrics I (Prof. Liangjun Su)
2020-2021: Introductory Statistics (Prof. Zhengxiao Wu)
Research Experience: March 2020-June 2020 Research Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University
(Prof. Liangjun Su)
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2016-2020
Research Papers:
“Testing for Idiosyncratic Bubbles in the Presence of Nonstationary or Mildly Explosive Factors
in Panel Data Models” (Job Market Paper, with Liangjun Su)
Abstract: Identifying the sources of bubbles is of practical interest economic and financial analyses. This
paper devises a simple but effective procedure to test bubbles in the idiosyncratic components in the
presence of nonstationary or mildly explosive factors in common components in a large dimensional panel
data model. We establish the limiting null distribution and the asymptotic local power property of our test.
In particular, the asymptotic local power benefits from the pull of the cross-section units together to detect
possible explosive behavior of bubbles in the idiosyncratic component. We also propose a wild bootstrap
procedure to improve the finite sample performance of our test Monte Carlos simulations suggest the
bootstrap-based test has the desired size and decent power. As an illustrative example, we consider testing
the bubbles in the idiosyncratic components of cryptocurrency prices.
“Estimation and Specification Tests of Two-Way Random Coefficient Panel Data Models with
Fixed Effects” with Liangjun Su
Abstract: Conventional random coefficients panel data models only assume random coefficients in time
or individual dimension, which appears somewhat restrictive in practice. This paper introduces a two-way
random coefficients panel model with both time- and individual-specific fixed effects to accommodate the
heterogeneity and time-varyingness of the slope simultaneously. We eliminate fixed effects by within-
group transformations and then obtain the estimators of parameters of interest. We establish the limiting
distributions of the estimators in the standard large N and large T framework. Consistent tests then are
constructed to examine the validity of the specification of random coefficients panel data models. We
establish the null distribution, the asymptotic local power property, and the consistency of our tests. To
deal with the downward size distortion of tests, we employ two bootstrap schemes to resolve this problem.
We further show that established results still hold in the presence of weak cross-sectional dependence
under additional mild conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments suggest the tests based on the
asymptotic critical value suffer from downward size distortions in many cases, but the bootstrap version
of the tests has proper size and good power even for relatively small samples. We also apply the proposed
tests to reveal the relationship between the unemployment rate and youth labor rate in the working-age
population using panel data covering 171 countries at most and 23 years from 1991 to 2013, and testing
results are in favor of the existence of country-specific slope heterogeneity.
SMU Classification: Restricted
Work in Progress:
“Testing for Bubbles in Common Factors in Panel Data Models with Local to Unity Root Errors” with Liangjun Su
Computer Skills: MATLAB, Stata, LaTeX
Languages:
Chinese (native), English (fluent)
SMU Classification: Restricted
Qiugu, He
School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://qiuguhe2016.wixsite.com/qghe
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Handphone/Cell: +65-90522283
Personal Information: Male, Chinese
Undergraduate Studies:
B.Eng., Software Engineering, School of Software, Central South University, 2011.
Masters Level Work: M.Eng., Software Engineering, School of Software and Microelectronics, Peking University,
2015
Graduate Studies:
Singapore Management University, 2016 to present Thesis Title: Essays on Innovation and Growth
Expected Completion Date: June 2021
Thesis Committee and References:
Jianhuan Xu (advisor) Pao-Li Chang School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 (65) 6828-0085
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 (65) 6828-0830
Yuan Mei School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 (65) 6808-5212
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: Macroeconomics, International Trade
Secondary fields: Industrial Organization
Teaching Experience:
Teaching certificate 2020 Certificate for graduate instructor, Center for English Communication, SMU
Teaching Assistant
2020 Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, Prof Nicolas L. Jacquet)
Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, Prof Yu Sun)
2019 MSc R/Python Coding Workshops (Master, Prof Anthony S. Tay)
2018 Intermediate Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, Prof Jianhuan Xu)
Grader
2016 Introductory Economics (Undergraduate, Prof Kong Weng Ho)
Research Experience:
2019 Research Assistant (Prof. Yuan Mei, International trade)
2018 Research Assistant (Prof. Ismail Baydur, Macroeconomics)
2017 Research Assistant (Prof. Jianhuan Xu, Macroeconomics)
2013 Research Assistant (Prof. Bo Zhao, Peking university, Macroeconomics)
Conference and Seminar Presentations:(* indicates presented by coauthors)
2020 International Trade Study Group, Singapore Management University, Singapore
2020 The Second New Structure Economics Academic Seminar, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China
2017 Summer Workshop of Economic Theory, Tokyo, Japan*
2015 The Second Youth Economist Forum, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: 2016-2020 Graduate Full Scholarship (PhD Program), Ministry of Education, Singapore
Publications: “Real exchange rate, hot money and housing price” with Dong Yuan and Bo Zhao, Journal of Financial
Research (in Chinese,金融研究, CSSCI), 2016
“A Literature Review of Determinants on House Prices” with Dong Yuan and Bo Zhao, Research on
Economics and Management. (in Chinese,经济与管理研究, CSSCI), 2015
Research Papers:
“Intellectual property right enforcement, competition, and innovation : Evidence from China” (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: This paper studies how IPR (Intellectual Property Right) enforcement across China affects
aggregate innovation and welfare. By using China Judgements Database, I first document that while
competition spurs aggregate R&D and reduces firm-level R&D, strict IPR enforcement enlarges
the magnitude of the first effect and shrinks the second effect. Based on these findings, I build a
Schumpeterian growth model featuring IP infringement. From the theoretical model, I find that a
new distribution of firm size is consistent with the current literature if only intellectual property rights
are perfectly protected. I estimate the model using firm-level data from China and find that the
entry cost of a pirate manufacturer is only half of that of the innovator. Performing a counterfactual
analysis, I identify three channels that IPR enforcement impacts on welfare.
“Firm productivity and the Variety of Inputs and Outputs: Evidence from Chinese Trade Data” with Onish, Ken; Yang, Guang; Xu, Jianhuan
Abstract: This paper studies how the trade liberalization in China changes the firm productivity. We
develop a framework to estimate revenue productivity (TFPR) and real productivity (TFPQ) with multi-
SMU Classification: Restricted
product firms. We find that the aggregate TFPR increases 30% from 2002-2007 and TFPQ increases 22%,
suggesting that the observed TFPR increase is mainly driven by real productivity change rather than the
markup change. We further decompose the change of productivity into three channels: (1) access to
foreign inputs; (2) technology upgrades; (3) resource re-allocation within the firm. We find the most
significant channel is the last one, which explains half of the aggregate productivity increase. We also find
that the SOEs and private firms significantly improve the TFPR. However, private firms TFPR increase
mainly come from the increase of TFPQ, while only 65% of the TFPR increase of SOEs can be attributed
to change of TFPQ.
Computer Skills:
Matlab, Python, Stata, MySQL, Access, Latex
Languages:
Chinese (native), English (fluent)
SMU Classification: Restricted
LIYAO LI
School of Economics, Singapore Management University
https://liyaolee2011.wixsite.com/liyaoli
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Cell: +65 86721197
Personal Information
Date of birth: 02/24/1992
Gender: Female
Citizenship: Chinese
Current Position
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Singapore Management University, 2020 – present
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Science, Economics, Singapore Management University, 2015
Graduate Studies
Ph.D. in Economics, Singapore Management University, 07/2015 to 07/2019
Thesis Title: Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Small T
Graduation Date: January 2020
Thesis Committee and References
Zhenlin Yang (advisor)
Professor of Economics & Statistics Yiu Kuen Tse
Professor of Economics
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 68280852
Email: [email protected]
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 68280257
Email: [email protected]
Yichong Zhang
Assistant Professor of Economics
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
Phone: +65 68280881
Email: [email protected]
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields: Spatial Econometrics, Panel Data Models, Econometric Theory
Secondary fields: Urban Economics, Regional Economics
Teaching Experience
Instructor Mathematics for Economics (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, Term1, 2020/2021
Teaching Assistant Microeconomics I (Ph.D.), Singapore Management University, AY2016/2017
Introduction to Statistical Theory (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, AY2017/2018
Macroeconomic Analysis (Master), Singapore Management University, AY2018/2020
Economic and Society (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, AY2019/2020
Research Experience
Research Assistant, Singapore Management University, 08/2017 – 04/2020
Conference and Seminar Presentations
China Meeting of the Econometric Society, Guangzhou, 2019
Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society, Xiamen, 2019
Singapore Management University Research Seminar, 2018
XI World Conference of the Spatial Econometrics Association, Singapore, 2017
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships
Selected Participant of the 7th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting on Economic Science, 2020
Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2018 – 2019
Ph.D. Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2015 – 2019
Undergraduate Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2011 – 2015
Publications
[1] Li, Liyao and Yang, Zhenlin. (2020) “Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Correlated
Random Effects,” Journal of Econometrics, available online
[2] Li, Liyao and Yang, Zhenlin. (2020) “Estimation of Fixed Effects Spatial Dynamic Panel Data
Models with Small T and Unknown Heteroskedasticity,” Regional Science and Urban Economics,
81, p.103520.
Working Papers
“Estimation and Inference for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed
Effects” with Zhenlin Yang (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: We propose an M-estimation method for estimating the spatial dynamic panel data models
with interactive fixed effects based on short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are obtained by
adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given initial values and with factor loadings being
concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. The variance-covariance
(VC) matrix of the proposed M-estimators is estimated by first decomposing the vector of estimating
functions into a sum of n terms, and then finding the covariances among them. The outer product of
these n summands together with a covariance adjustment gives a consistent estimator of the VC matrix.
Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established, and the consistency
of the VC matrix estimator is proved. Monte Carlo results show very good performance of the proposed
M-estimator and the VC matrix estimator. Compared with the methods available in the literature, our
SMU Classification: Restricted
methods are much simpler and can be expected to be more efficient in point estimation and more
reliable in inference.
“Attenuation of Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from the Universe of Chinese
Manufacturing Firms” with Jing Li and Shimeng Liu (R&R for Journal of Urban Economics)
Abstract: This paper examines a complete list of twenty-nine Chinese manufacturing industries to
reveal industry-specific spatial attenuation of agglomeration economies and its interplay with the
unique presence of state-owned enterprises in China. The full-spectrum analysis also allows for
assessing the goodness of fit of various spatial decay functional forms and for systematically evaluating
the micro-foundations governing the decay patterns across industry types. We obtain three main
findings. First, agglomeration economies attenuate sharply with spatial distance in China, with large
heterogeneity in attenuation speed across ownership and industry types. Second, the spatial decay speed
is positively linked with proxies for knowledge spillovers and labour market pooling but is negatively
linked with proxies for input sharing and the share of the state sector. Last, the inverse square distance
decay function presents the best goodness of fit among the tested functional forms.
Computer Skills
Matlab, Stata, LaTex
Languages
Chinese (native), English (fluent)
SMU Classification: Restricted
Luo Xuan
School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://luoxuan.weebly.com/
Contact Information:
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Handphone/Cell: +65 90186521
Personal Information:
Birth Year: 1990; Gender: Male; Citizenship: Chinese
Academic Employment:
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, INSEAD June 2018 – Present
Undergraduate Studies:
B.S., Material Physics, Wuhan University Sep 2008 – Oct 2008
B.S., Statistics & Mathematics, National University of Singapore Aug 2009 – June 2013
Graduate Studies:
Ph.D., Economics, Singapore Management University Aug 2013 – May 2018
Thesis Title: On International Trade and Industrial Policies
References:
Wen-Tai Hsu (advisor) Pushan Dutt School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
+65 68280833
Economics & Political Science
INSEAD
1 Ayer Rajah Ave
Singapore 138676
+65 67995498
Lin Tian
Economics & Political Science
INSEAD
1 Ayer Rajah Ave
Singapore 138676
+65 67995109
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: International Economics, Economic Geography, and Urban Economics
Secondary fields: Chinese Economy and Industrial Policies
Teaching Experience:
Instructor – SMU: Introductory Statistics (2016)
Teaching assistant – SMU: Intermediate Macroeconomics (2015), International Trade & Intermediate
Econometrics (2017), Economic Forecasting (2018)
Professional Activities:
Referee: Journal of Asian Economics
Membership: Econometric Society, Urban Economics Association
Conference and Seminar Presentations:
June 2020, Institute for Advanced Economic Research (DUFE), Dalian, China (Zoom)
Dec 2019, 2019 SMU Conference on Urban and Regional Economics, Singapore
Jun 2019, INSEAD-SMU Joint International Economics Workshop, Singapore
June 2019, 2019 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Xiamen, China (Session Chair)
Dec 2018, 2018 SMU Conference on Urban and Regional Economics, Singapore
Oct 2018, 2018 Meeting of the Urban Economics Association, NY, U.S.
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:
SMU PhD Economics Scholarship, 2013 – 2017
NUS Undergraduate Full-Ride Scholarship, 2009 – 2013
NUS Dean’s List, 2011 & 2013
Research Papers:
“Market Size, Trade, and Institution”, (Job Market Paper) with Wen-Tai Hsu
Abstract: This paper proposes a theory of market size and institution by incorporating the incomplete-
contract model in Acemoglu et al. (2007) in a general-equilibrium, open-economy environment and in a
Nash-equilibrium setting in which national planners optimize their countries’ welfare over institutional
qualities. Our theory predicts that a larger effective market size leads to a higher institutional quality, that
a status-quo country may reduce its institutional quality when other countries trade-liberalize among
themselves, and a flying geese pattern of institution. Empirically, we find that a larger effective market
size does lead to improvement in contracting institution, but it affects little of other dimensions of
institution. Quantitatively, we find that institutional improvement induced by trade liberalization from
autarky to current trade costs accounts for a sizeable portion of a country’s total welfare gains from trade.
“Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence from China”, (under review)
with Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu and Lianming Zhu
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on industrial agglomeration.
Using the differential effects of FDI deregulation in 2002 in China on different industries, we find that
FDI actually affects industrial agglomeration negatively. As FDI brings technological spillovers and
various agglomeration benefits, other forces must be at work to drive our empirical finding. We propose
a simple theory that FDI may discourage industrial agglomeration due to fiercer competition pressure. We
find various evidence on this competition mechanism. We also examine an alternative theory based on
spatial political competition, but find no evidence supporting it. On industrial growth, we find that FDI
deregulation is conducive, but the dispersion induced by FDI deregulation reduces the positive effect of
FDI on growth rate by 16 to 19%.
“Industrial Subsidy Policy and Capital Misallocation in China”, with Shang-Jin Wei and Jianhuan Xu
Abstract: This paper studies the Chinese industrial subsidy policy from 1998 to 2007. Our industry
equilibrium model establishes that the optimal policy should be positively correlated with input distortions
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confronted by firms. Based on this prediction, we evaluate the effectiveness of subsidy policy in China
and document three stylized facts: (1) On the firm level, conditional on firm size, the subsidy can help
correct for the capital and labor distortions over time; (2) We use the propensity score matching combined
with difference-in-differences to identify the causal effect of subsidy and find that subsidized firms
perform better in terms of value added but not revenue TFP; (3) Regions in the ‘Western Development
Program' received more subsidies compared to their east counterparts, both in the intensive margin and
extensive margin. Finally, we quantify the effect of the subsidy policy on welfare.
“The Political Economy of Land Supply: The Case of China”, with Wen-Tai Hsu and Yang Tang
Abstract: This paper develops a quantitative spatial equilibrium framework to study the political economy
of urban land supply in China. The model captures at least three aspects of political economy in China:
(1) the competition for promotion among different local government leaders; (2) the rent-seeking motives
of local government leaders; (3) the fact that economic performance (i.e., GDP) is the main key
performance indicators in the race for promotion. We also characterize different welfare benchmark for
comparison. In this economy, land is useful for both residential need and production, and the fact that
land/housing is a necessity creates an incentive for government officials to restrict land supply via the
rent-seeking channel. The competition channels encourage land supply. Our results show that the
equilibrium welfare is close to the welfare benchmarks because political competition among different
cities outweigh the rent-seeking motives. When labor is immobile and hence the political competition
channel is shut down, welfare worsens dramatically.
Selected Work-in-Progress:
“The Rise of Chinese Exports: Knowledge Spillovers Within and Across Industry Boundaries”, with
Pushan Dutt and Lin Tian
Abstract: This paper studies how exporters' learning on the firm-product-destination-year level shapes
export dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms infer time-varying demand
shifter though spillovers, measured by cumulative exports, within its own other products or across peers
either in the same city or the same industry. Using China's Customs Data for all exporters from 2000 to
2006, we find that both the effect of within-firm learning spillovers and the effect of the same-city-same-
sector learning spillovers are positive and help boost current exports. The results are robust when we
control for the demand shocks, supply shocks and trade costs, or when we focus on subsamples such as
incumbents, non-processing or non-trading firms. We also analyze the learning heterogeneity along
several dimensions.
“Specialization Patterns of Exporters: Evidence from China”, with Pushan Dutt and Lin Tian
Computer Skills:
MATLAB, Stata, R, SPSS, Eviews, Python
Languages:
Chinese (native), English (fluent)
SMU Classification: Restricted
ROHAN RAY
School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://sites.google.com/view/rohanray
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Mobile: +6591720527
Personal Information
Date of Birth: 19th August, 1990
Sex: Male
Graduate Studies: PhD in Economics, Department of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2016-
Thesis Title: Essays on Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability
Expected Completion Date: June, 2021
Masters Studies:
MA in Economics, Department of Economics, New York University, 2014-2016
MSc in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Calcutta, 2012-2014
Undergraduate Studies:
BSc in Economics, Department of Economics, St Xavier’s College, Kolkata, 2009-2012
Thesis Committee and References:
Professor Tomoki Fujii (advisor) Professor Christine Ho
School of Economics School of Economics
Singapore Management University Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road 90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903 Singapore 178903
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Professor Seonghoon Kim Professor Abu S. Shonchoy
School of Economics School of International and Public Affairs
Singapore Management University Florida International University
90 Stamford Road 11200 SW 8th St, Miami
Singapore 178903 FL 33199, United States of America
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: Development Economics
Secondary fields: Economics of Education, Health Economics, Environmental Sustainability
Teaching Experience:
Graduate Instructor: Economics of Development in Asia, School of Economics, Singapore Management
University, 2020-2021 Term 1
Graduate Instructor: Economics of Development in Asia, School of Economics, Singapore Management
University, 2019-2020 Term 2
Teaching Assistant: Microeconomic Analysis (graduate level), School of Economics, Singapore
Management University, 2019-2020 Term 1
Teaching Assistant: Microeconomic Analysis (graduate level), School of Economics, Singapore
Management University, 2018-2019 Term 1
Teaching Assistant: Economics of Development in Asia, School of Economics, Singapore Management
University, 2017-2018 Term 1
Teaching Assistant: Economics of Development, School of Economics, New York University, 2015-
2016 Term 1
Research Experience:
Consultant in Economic Affairs, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations
(ICRIER), 2016
Intern in Economic Affairs, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (United Nations ESCAP), 2015
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: Doctoral Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2016-2020
Graduate Instructor Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2019-2020
Academic Award for Excellence in Macroeconomics, New York University, 2015
Conference and Seminar Presentations:
2020 Seminar Series, School of Economics, Singapore Management University
2019 Conference on Randomized Controlled Trials at Monash Business School, Melbourne
2018 Annual London Business Research Conference at Imperial College, London
Publications: Emerging Issues in India–Pakistan Trade: An Introduction in India-Pakistan Trade Normalization
(pp. 1-14), 2017. Springer, Singapore. (with Nisha Taneja, Isha Dayal, and Samridhi Bimal)
Research Papers:
Conditional Cash Transfer, Loss Framing, and SMS Nudges: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment
in Bangladesh (with Tomoki Fujii, Christine Ho, and Abu Shonchoy) – Job Market Paper
Abstract: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have become one of the most common policy interventions to
increase school attendance, but the cost-effectiveness of such interventions has not attracted the attention it
deserves. Hence, in addition to a standard CCT implementation, we experimentally study two potential ways
to improve the cost-effectiveness of school attendance interventions: (i) SMS information nudges and (ii)
loss framing in CCTs. The former provides school attendance information to parents and the latter exploits the
endowment effect. Consistent with the existing literature, CCT intervention significantly increases school
attendance. We also find that the loss framing marginally increases attendance over and above the conventional
gain framing CCT treatment. The SMS treatment only has a modest impact on school attendance but the
overall cost of treatment is low. The marginal impact of cash transfer amount has an inverted-U shaped
relationship to the level of cash transfer, indicating that the intensive margin matters. We also find evidence
of positive peer group effect in attendance. These results thus indicate that there is potential room for
improving the cost-effectiveness of school attendance interventions.
SMU Classification: Restricted
Alcohol Consumption and Intimate Partner Violence: Causal Evidence from India
Abstract: A study by the World Health Organization shows that about 35 percent of women in the world
have been victims of physical or sexual intimate partner violence in their lifetime. In this paper, I study the
causal impact of alcohol consumption on incidence of intimate partner violence in the Indian context. Using an
overidentified model where I exploit the spatial variation in alcohol ban and minimum legal drinking age across
states to instrument for the husband's alcohol consumption, I find that alcohol consumption increases incidence
of less severe physical violence by 55 percentage points and severe physical violence by 23.6 percentage points,
and also has negative consequences on the freedom of movement and decision making powers of the female
within the household. I show that the results are not driven by worse gender attitudes in states where
alcohol is allowed. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that there is a vicious cycle of intimate partner violence
whereby individuals who are the most vulnerable in terms of having previous exposure to domestic abuse
are often the victims. Finally, there is weak evidence of underreporting of domestic abuse and the observed
results might be a lower bound estimate of the true impact of alcohol consumption on intimate partner violence.
Singapore as a Sustainable City: Past, present and the future (with Tomoki Fujii)
Abstract: This paper outlines Singapore’s major sustainability challenges and its policy response in the
areas of land use, transportation, waste management, water, and energy. We review the current and past
Concept Plans from the perspective of sustainable land use and provide an overview of transportation policy
in Singapore. We also examine Singapore’s policies to manage increasing wastes and review the four tap
water management plan. Finally, we look at various initiatives by the government for sustainable use of
energy. While Singapore has been successful in many ways in transforming itself into one of the most
prosperous and sustainable cities in the world, there remain challenges to make the city even cleaner and
greener for a better future. We discuss the opportunities that new technologies will bring about and the role
that Singapore can play in building a sustainable city.
Working Papers:
National Development Banks and Sustainable Infrastructure in South Asia. GEGI Working Paper 003, (2016)
(with Nagesh Kumar and Pradeep Keshari)
Ongoing Work:
Do Government Benefits Stick to the Intended Beneficiary: Evidence from the Mid Day Meal Scheme in India
(with Arpita Khanna)
Conditional Cash Transfer, SMS, and Social Network Dynamics (with Tomoki Fujii, Christine Ho, and
Abu Shonchoy)
Other Positions of Responsibility
Supervised a student from National University of Singapore High School of Mathematics and Science on his
research paper “Singapore Towards a Zero Waste Nation: Practices and Challenges”
Postgraduate Representative of the Library Advisory Committee: Singapore Management University
Computer Skills
STATA, MATLAB, LaTeX
Languages
English (fluent), Bengali (native), Hindi (proficient)
SMU Classification: Restricted
Kefang YAO
School of Economics, Singapore Management University
https://kefangyao.wixsite.com/kfyao [email protected]
Contact Information
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore
Handphone/Cell: +65-81348767
Personal Information: May 14, 1992, Female
Ningbo, China
Undergraduate Studies:
Bachelor of Management, International Business (minor in English), School of Economics,
Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China, 2014
Masters Level Work: Master of Science, Agricultural and Resources Economics, Department of Agricultural and
Resources Economics, University of California, Davis, United States, 2015
Graduate Studies:
Singapore Management University, 2016-2021(expected) Thesis Title: “Three Essays on Preferential Trade Agreement and Tariff Policies”
Expected Completion Date: June, 2021
Thesis Committee and References:
Pao-Li CHANG (advisor) Yuan MEI School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
<+65-68280830> <[email protected]>
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
<+65-68285212> <[email protected]>
Amanda JAKOBSSON School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903
<+65-68285467><[email protected]>
SMU Classification: Restricted
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: International Trade
Secondary fields: Chinese Economy, Development Economics
Teaching Experience: Teaching Assistant, Singapore Management University:
Econ 113: Economics of Globalization (Undergraduate), Jan 2020- Apr 2020 & Aug 2020- present
Econ 724: International Trade (Ph.D.), Aug 2018- Dec 2018; Aug 2019- Dec 2019 & Aug 2020- present
MGMT615: Current Issues in the Global Economy (MBA), May 2020-July 2020
Econ 118: Economic Development (Undergraduate), Jan 2018-Apr 2018
Grader, Singapore Management University:
Econ 217: Macroeconomics of Income Distribution (Undergraduate), Aug 2016-Nov 2016
Reader, University of California, Davis:
ARE 142: Personal Finance (Undergraduate), Mar 2015-June 2015
Research Experience: Research Assistant, Lien Center for Social Innovation (LSCI-SMU): “Philanthropy in China, India and Indonesia”, with Ford Foundation, Jun 2019-Feb 2020
“The Hunger Report: An In-Depth Look at Food Insecurity in Singapore”, with Food Bank Singapore,
Mar 2020-May 2020
Intern in Economic Affairs, Trade Policy Analysis Section, Trade and Investment Division (TID), United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP):
“The Impacts of Trade Facilitation on the Extensive Margins of Trade in Asia-the Pacific Region”, with
Dr. Witada Anukoonwattaka, Sep 2015-Feb 2016
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:
Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2020-2021
Ph.D. Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2016-2020
Academic Scholarship, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2011-2013
Working Papers:
“The Effects of US-China Trade War on Chinese Imports and Welfare”, with Pao-Li CHANG and
Fan ZHENG, Job Market Paper
Abstract:
In this paper, we follow the micro-to-macro approach of Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) and analyse the impacts
of the trade war for the Chinese economy. We use highly disaggregated trade and tariff data in monthly
frequency to identify the demand/supply elasticities of Chinese imports/exports, combined with a general-
equilibrium model for the Chinese economy (that takes into account input-output linkages, and regional
heterogeneity in employment and sector specialization) to quantify the partial and general equilibrium
effects of the tariff war at the product/sector/region/aggregate level. This complements the studies that
focus on the ex post micro-level response of the U.S. economy by Amiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019),
Fajgelbaum et al. (2020), and Cavallo et al. (2020).
SMU Classification: Restricted
“The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950-2015” (under revision, with Pao-Li CHANG and Wei JIN)
Abstract:
This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history
of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds nonparametric matching methods in structural
quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created
by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of
robustness checks with respect to model specifications, parameter values, and matching estimations are
provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on global income disparity, its interaction with
preferential trade agreements, and the effects of China's WTO entry. Currently, we are working on the
extension of introducing the role of tariff barriers into the theoretical model. We redo the estimation and
counterfactual analysis with the updated trade dataset and make minor modifications in aggregating the
matching effect. In this round of revision, we will discuss the new results and attempt to translate them
into meaningful policy insights.
Research in Progress:
“The Depth of Preferential Trade Agreements”, with Pao-Li CHANG and Wei JIN
Abstract:
Booming since 1990s, Preferential Trade Agreements have extended their traditional focus of tariff
reduction to cover deeper policy areas, such as investment, competition, movement of capital and
intellectual property rights. This paper uses a recently released dataset on the content of preferential trade
agreements, to quantify impacts of the horizontal depth of trade agreements on country's trade flows and
welfare within the time period of 1980-2015. The results indicate that with the categorization of
provisions, deeper agreements lead to more prominent trade growth, as well as larger welfare increase.
Furthermore, it implies that the depth of tradeagreements also matter for the potential complementarity
between the regional and multilateral
liberalization systems.
“Decomposing the Welfare Effects of Deep Trade Agreements: A Synthetic Control Method” , with
Pao-Li CHANG
Abstract:
In this paper we employ the synthetic control method to estimate the trade effect that there would have
been between the country and its trading partners if they have signed any preferential trade agreement
(PTA). We relate this (hypothetical) PTA effect on trade flows between the PTA members to the horizontal
depth of agreements. Then built on the Anderson and van Wincoop (2003)'s set-up, we further decompose
and quantify the welfare effects of PTA deep integration based on the content of agreements within the
time period of 1988-2015, controlling for the effects of tariff barriers. The results indicate that the
agreement which presented in a deeper from of integration lead to a larger trade growth and welfare
improvement.
Computer Skills:
Stata, MATLAB, EViews, NVivo, GAMS, LaTeX, MS Office
Languages:
Mandarin (Native), English (Fluent), French (Basic)