WP5.3 Model Simulations Zeuss Koutine

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  • 7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Zeuss Koutine

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Utufy sbtg fgtcbls

    Vdg stufy sbtg bs c trc`sget nrik tdg Mrgct Irbg`tcl Grm c`f tdg Fcdcr plctgcu b` tdg wgst, erissb`m tdgKctkctc kiu`tcb s, Jgnncrc plcb` c`f sgoadct ognirg g`fb`m b`ti tdg Muln in Mcos.

    Eiirfb`ctgs in eg`trcl pib`t:

    Lctbtufg: 553> @

    Li`mbtufg: 3884 G

    Ubzg:42= ak

    Cltbtufg:-5>>>k

    Xrgebpbtctbi`: ogliw 388 kk b` tdg Irbg`tcl Grm

    ti ?68 kk b` tdg Kctkctc kiu`tcb`s.

    Vgkpgrcturg gxtrgkgs:-5E64E

    Lc`f usg: rc`mglc`f, trgg erips, c``ucl erips

    (erippb`m lb`agf ti wctgr dcrvgstb`m)

    B`dcobtc`ts:373,888 (3226)

    Kcb` fgmrcfctbi` priegssgs: wctgr & wb`f

    grisbi`, rc`mglc`f fgmrcfctbi` c`f friumdt.

    Kcjir frbvgrs in fgmrcfctbi`:pipulctbi` mriwtd,

    fgnbebg`t b`nirkctbi`, b`sgeurg lc`f tg`urg, lcea

    in b`stbtutbi`cl kgedc`bsks

    Nbmurg 3 Utufy sbtg liectbi`

    Ivgrvbgw in seg`crbis

    3. Ocsglb`g Ueg`crbi: XGUG_C ocsglb`g ru`

    ?. Vged`ilimy Ueg`crbi: Jgssiur (VW@82)

    5. Vged`ilimy Ueg`crbi: _c`mglc`f rgstb`m (VW@33)

    6. Vged`ilimy Ueg`crbi: Vcobc (VW@3?)

    7. Xilbey Ueg`crbi: Uuosbfbsb`m cltgr`ctbvg nggf puredcsgs (VW@33)

    >. Xilbey Ueg`crbi: Uuosbfbsb`m tdg ei`struetbi` in jgssiur c`f tcobcs (VW@82 & 3?)

    =.

    Mliocl Ueg`crbi: Niif prifuetbi`

    4.

    Mliocl Ueg`crbi: Kb`bkbzb`m lc`f fgmrcfctbi`

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Ocsglb`g Ueg`crbi

    XGUG_C ocsglb`g ru`

    Vdg grisbi` ocsglb`g kcp bs cnngetgf oy lc`f usg, sibl

    eivgr c`f cvcblcoblbty in grifbolg sgfbkg`t. Dg`eg,

    tdg Kctkctc kiu`tcb` rc`mg figs `it ngcturg

    prikb`g`tly, wdgrgcs sikg niitslipg, vcllgynliir c`f

    plcb` crgcs rgprgsg`t dbmdgr kcxbkuk grisbi`

    vclugs. Nir tdg gstbkctbi` in obikcss prifuetbi` bt

    wcs cssukgf tdct mrczb`m bs c` b`trb`sbe pcrt in tdg

    systgk c`f c` cvgrcmg in 58% in c``ucl prifuetbi` bs

    mrczgf c``uclly.

    Uibl grisbi`

    Obikcss prifuetbi`

    Obikcss

    Lc`fnirks

    Grisbi`

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Vged`ilimy Ueg`crbi:

    Jgssiur (VW@82)

    B`vgstkg`t eist bs nbxgf ct V@F 5,288 (3267).

    C` gei`ikbe lbng in ?8 ygcrs dcs ogg` sgt.

    Kcb`tg`c`eg eists ckiu`t ti V@F 33=8 (746),

    b`elufb`m cmrbeulturcl kc`cmgkg`t.

    C fbseiu`t rctg in 38% dcs ogg` cpplbgf.

    C EE_ in 3:> dcs ogg` cssukgf. Gxtg`sbvg mrczb`m

    (wbtdiut ecsg) bs `it cnngetgf.

    Vgrrceg bs erippgf ti ilbvg. Vrggs ogeikg

    prifuetbvg cntgr > y (?7%)1 kcturg cntgr 3? y.

    Ilbvg dcrvgst b`fgx (DB) bs sgt ct 8.3 c`f ilbvg prbeg

    ct V@F 8.77 (8.?=) pgr am.

    ]dgct b`tgrerippgf u`tbl ygcr 3?. Kcx. ybglf bs

    258 am/dc1 prbeg bs V@F 8.65 (8.?3) pgr am.

    Cpplbecoblbty

    Vdg tged`ilimy bs `it cpplbecolg b` vgry stggp c`f

    nlct crgcs

    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: sibl grisbi`

    Cpplbecoblbty

    ]btd tged`ilimy]btdiut tged`ilimy

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    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: b`ergcsg b` obikcss

    Gei`ikbe vbcoblbty

    B` tdg ecsg in ei`struetbi` in `gw jgssiur, plc`tb`m in `gw ilbvg trggs kgc`s tdct bt tcags > ygcrs ognirg tdg

    nbrst ilbvgs ec` og dcrvgstgf, c`f 3? ygcrs ognirg tdg trggs rgced null prifuetbvbty. Gvg` bn b` tdbs oublf up

    pgrbif wdgct bs mriw`, tdg b`vgstkg`t c`f kcb`tg`c`eg eists crg tii dbmd, rgsultb`m b` `gmctbvg @gt Xrgsg`t

    ^clug. Diwgvgr, tdg kcb`tg`c`eg in gxbstb`m jgssiur wdgrg ilbvg trggs dcvg rgcedgf kcturbty bs prinbtcolg b`

    pcrt in tdg cpplbecoblbty crgc: tdgrg bs c pisbtbvg @X^ b` 53% in tdg cpplbecoblbty crgc. Vdgsg c`clysgs crg ocsgf

    i` cvgrcmg ei`fbtbi`s, c`f ygcrs wbtd b`sunnbebg`t ru`inn-prifueb`m rcb`ncll gvg`ts kcy sgg kued liwgr ilbvg

    dcrvgsts. Gqublborbuk obikcss pgr dgetcrg in tgrrceg crgc kcy sggk dbmd1 tdg ilbvg dcrvgst b`fgx dcs ogg` sgt

    qubtg liw ti crrbvg ct c ybglf in 388 am pgr null-mriw` trgg. @itg tdct @X^ bs mbvg` pgr dgetcrg in tgrrcegf lc`f,si nir titcl lc`f prifuetbvbty b`elufb`m tdg bkpluvbuk vclugs sdiulf og fbvbfgf oy > (tdg EE_ rctbi).

    Xgreg`tcmg obikcss b`ergcsg Obikcss

    @gt Xrgsg`t ^clug (?8 ygcrs): ilbvg trggs `gwly plc`tgf Kcb`tg`c`eg in jgssiur wbtd gxbstb`m ilbvg trggs

  • 7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Zeuss Koutine

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Vged`ilimy Ueg`crbi:

    _c`mglc`f rgstb`m (VW@33)

    Utc`fcrf ng`eb`m eist bs V@F =? (5>) dc-3.

    B` tdg wbtdiut ecsg 58% in obikcss bs mrczgf.

    Ei`vgrsbi` rctg in obikcss ti niffgr u`bts bs 57%

    oitd wbtd c`f wbtdiut tged`ilimy1 tdg prbeg pgr

    niffgr u`bt bs V@F 8.?8 (8.38).

    Vdg gei`ikbe lbng in tdg tged`ilimy bs 6 ygcrs1

    og`gnbts b` tdg nirk in b`ergcsgf prifuetbvbty

    ieeur b` tdg 6td

    ygcr i`ly.

    Bn it rgstgf rc`mglc`f privbfgs niffgr, tdg

    gqubvclg`t in wdbed `ggfs ti og puredcsgf bn

    rgstb`m bs cpplbgf.

    C fbseiu`t rctg in 38% bs cpplbgf.

    Cpplbecoblbty

    Vdg tged`ilimy bs `it cpplbecolg b` vgry stggp

    crgcs c`f bs ei`nb`gf ti rc`mglc`f crgcs.

    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: sibl grisbi`

    Cpplbecoblbty

    ]btdiut tged`ilimy ]btd tged`ilimy

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    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: b`ergcsg b` obikcss

    Gei`ikbe vbcoblbty

    _c`mglc`f rgstb`m bs `it gei`ikbeclly vbcolg. Vdg

    prgsg`t c`clysbs wcs pgrnirkgf wbtd ippirtu`bty

    eists nir niffgr gqucl ti tdg prifuetbvbty in

    rc`mglc`f bn usgf ei`tb`uiusly (b.g. bn c`bkcls wgrg ti

    og mrczgf i` eikpcrcolg crgcs)1 tdg c`clysbs wiulf

    tur` gvg` kirg `gmctbvg bn niffgr wiulf `ggf ti og

    puredcsgf nrik tdg kcragt. Vdg Vu`bsbc` mivgr`kg`t

    dcs b`trifuegf c suosbfy ti puredcsg cltgr`ctbvg

    lbvgstiea nggf ti stbkulctg tdg uptcag in rc`mglc`f

    rgstb`m.

    Xgreg`tcmg obikcss b`ergcsg Obikcss

    @gt Xrgsg`t ^clug

  • 7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Zeuss Koutine

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Vged`ilimy Ueg`crbi:

    Vcobc (VW@3?)

    B`vgstkg`t eist bs nbxgf ct V@F 4=3 (657).

    C` gei`ikbe lbng in ?8 ygcrs dcs ogg` sgt.

    Kcb`tg`c`eg eists ckiu`t ti V@F ?>8 (358),

    b`elufb`m cmrbeulturcl kc`cmgkg`t.

    C fbseiu`t rctg in 38% dcs ogg` cpplbgf.

    C EE_ in 3:> dcs ogg` cssukgf. Gxtg`sbvg mrczb`m

    (wbtdiut ecsg) bs `it cnngetgf.

    Vgrrceg bs erippgf ti ilbvg. Vrggs ogeikg

    prifuetbvg cntgr > y (?7%)1 kcturg cntgr 3? y.

    Ilbvg dcrvgst b`fgx (DB) bs sgt ct 8.3 c`f ilbvg prbeg

    ct V@F 8.77 (8.?=) pgr am.

    ]dgct b`tgrerippgf u`tbl ygcr 3?. Kcx. ybglf bs

    258 am/dc1 prbeg bs V@F 8.65 (8.?3)pgr am.

    Cpplbecoblbty

    Vdg tged`ilimy bs cpplbecolg b` mg`tlg slipb`m

    crgcs wbtd fggp sibls

    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: sibl grisbi`

    Cpplbecoblbty

    ]btd tged`ilimy]btdiut tged`ilimy

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    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: b`ergcsg b` obikcss

    Gei`ikbe vbcoblbty

    Cltdiumd tcobcs crg prinbtcolg b` kist in tdg cpplbecoblbty crgc, plc`tb`m in `gw ilbvg trggs kgc`s tdct bt tcags

    > ygcrs ognirg tdg nbrst ilbvgs ec` og dcrvgstgf, c`f 3? ygcrs ognirg tdg trggs rgced null prifuetbvbty.

    Vdgrgnirg, lc`f usgrs dcvg ti wcbt c li`m tbkg ognirg tdg b`vgstkg`t pcys inn, cs fgki`strctgf oy tdg 38-ygcr

    b`vgstkg`t c`clysbs, wdgrg cll c`clysgs pib`t ti c `gmctbvg rgtur`. Vdgsg c`clysgs crg ocsgf i` cvgrcmg

    ei`fbtbi`s, c`f ygcrs wbtd b`sunnbebg`t ru`inn-prifueb`m rcb`ncll gvg`ts kcy sgg kued liwgr ilbvg dcrvgsts.

    Gqublborbuk obikcss pgr dgetcrg in tgrrceg crgc kcy sggk dbmd1 tdg ilbvg dcrvgst b`fgx dcs ogg` sgt qubtg liw

    ti crrbvg ct c ybglf in 388 am pgr null-mriw` trgg. @itg tdct @X^ bs mbvg` pgr dgetcrg in tgrrcegf lc`f, si nirtitcl lc`f prifuetbvbty b`elufb`m tdg bkpluvbuk vclugs sdiulf og fbvbfgf oy > (tdg EE_ rctbi).

    Xgreg`tcmg obikcss b`ergcsg Obikcss

    @gt Xrgsg`t ^clug (?8 ygcrs) @gt Xrgsg`t ^clug (38 ygcrs)

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    Zgus-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Xilbey Ueg`crbi:

    Uuosbfbsb`m cltgr`ctbvg nggf puredcsgs (VW@33)

    _c`mglc`f rgstb`m bs fbnnbeult nir ncrkgrs cs bt rgqubrgs

    ceegss ti cltgr`ctbvg nggf, wdbed bs gxpg`sbvg bn

    siuregf nrik tdg kcragt. Vdg mivgr`kg`t dcs

    fgvbsgf c suosbfy ti eikpg`sctg lc`f usgrs nir

    cltgr`ctbvg nggf rgqubrgkg`ts. Vdg suosbfy ckiu`ts

    ti V@F 58 (37) pgr dc b` tdg nbrst ygcr, c`f V@F =8

    (57) sprgcf ivgr tdg `gxt tdrgg ygcrs. Vdg pilbey

    cpplbgs ti fgsbm`ctgf crgcs c`f rgqubrgs lc`f usgrs ti

    rgst rc`mglc`f nir c kb`bkuk in niur ygcrs.

    Xrinbtcoblbty:

    Eist-Gnngetbvg`gss b`fbectirs:

    Orbfmb`m in tdg pgrbif b` wdbed tdg rgstgf rc`mglc`f bs elisgf nir mrczb`m wbtd suosbfbgs nir cltgr`ctbvg nggf

    puredcsgs kcags tdg tged`ilimy prinbtcolg b` 26% in tdg cpplbecolg crgc.

    Vdbs wbll rgsult b` c` cvgrcmg rgfuetbi` in grisbi` in 8.3 ti`/dc/ygcr.

    B` titcl, c` c``ucl rgfuetbi` in 4,??7 ti``gs in grifgf sibl ec` og gxpgetgf.

    Vdg suosbfy nir tdg crgc wdgrg tdg tged`ilimy wiulf ogeikg prinbtcolg ckiu`ts ti V@F =.2 kbllbi` (5.2>kbllbi`).

    Dg`eg c eist-gnngetbvg`gss in V@F 2>6 pgr ti` (64?) in sibl ei`sgrvgf.

    ]btdiut suosbfy ]btd suosbfy

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    Zgus-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Xilbey Ueg`crbi:

    Uuosbfbsb`m tdg ei`struetbi` in jgssiur c`f tcobcs (VW@82 & 3?)

    Ct c tbkg dirbzi` in 38 ygcrs, jgssiur c`f tcobcs crg `it

    prinbtcolg. Lc`f usgrs crg u`lbagly ti wcbt li`mgr nir

    og`gnbts ti ceerug. Dg`eg eists in tdg tged`ilimy `ggf

    ti og rgfuegf. Vdbs bs pissbolg tdriumd c suosbfy c`f/ir

    eiirfb`ctb`m tdg seclg in bkplgkg`tctbi` wdbed wbll

    rgfueg pgr crgc u`bt eist. C suosbfy eiulf og pcrt in c

    pcykg`t nir geisystgk sgrvbegs sedgkg cs stcoblbzctbi`

    in crgcs cnngetgf oy mullbgs c`f rblls dcs bkpirtc`t inn-

    sbtg gnngets, g.m. rgfuetbi` in sgfbkg`tctbi` in tdg

    rgsgrvibrs b` tdg stufy crgc, c`f rglbgvb`m prgssurg i`

    stctg nirgsts. B` tdbs seg`crbi c eist rgfuetbi` gqucl ti

    78% in tdg b`vgstkg`t eists bs gxplirgf.

    78%

    Xrinbtcoblbty:

    Eist-gnngetbvg`gss b`fbectirs:

    C rgfuetbi` b` b`vgstkg`t eists in 78% kcags tcobcs (VW@3?) prinbtcolg b` >6% in tdg cpplbecolg crgc,

    ocsgf i` tdg `gt prgsg`t vclug cntgr 38 ygcrs1 jgssiur (VW@82) diwgvgr crg tii eistly b` ei`struetbi` c`f

    kcb`tg`c`eg, c`f c` b`vgstkg`t suosbfy figs it kcag c`y fbnngrg`eg.

    I` tdg crgc wdgrg @X^ ogeikgs prinbtcolg, c` cvgrcmg rgfuetbi` in grisbi` in 8.>2 ti`/dc/ygcr bsiotcb`gf.

    B` titcl, c` c``ucl rgfuetbi` in 6=6? ti``gs in grifgf sibl ec` og gxpgetgf*.

    Vdg suosbfy nir tdg crgc wdgrg tcobcs wiulf ogeikg prinbtcolg ckiu`ts ti V@F 5.8 kbllbi` (3.7 kbllbi`)*.

    Dg`eg c eist-gnngetbvg`gss in V@F >5? pgr ti` (53>) in sibl ei`sgrvgf.

    *@itg: tdgsg nbmurgs rgnlget tdg ncet tdct tdg tged`ilimy ec` b` ncet i`ly og bkplgkg`tgf i` 3/>td

    in tdg cpplbecolg crgc

    fug ti tdg `ggf ti tcag b`ti ceeiu`t c ectedkg`t ti erippgf crgc rctbi.

    Vcobc wbtdiut suosbfy (38 ygcr) ]btd suosbfy (38 ygcr)

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Mliocl Ueg`crbi:

    Niif prifuetbi`

    Vdg niif prifuetbi` seg`crbi sglgets tdg tged`ilimy

    wbtd tdg dbmdgst cmrbeulturcl prifuetbvbty (obikcss)

    nir gced egll wdgrg c dbmdgr prifuetbvbty tdc` b` tdg

    ocsglb`g seg`crbi bs cedbgvgf. Vdg bkplgkg`tctbi`

    eists nir tdg titcl stufy crgc crg ecleulctgf c`f eist-

    prifuetbvbty rglctbi`s cssgssgf. Vi nceblbtctg

    eikpcrbsi` ogtwgg` fbnngrg`t stufy sbtgs, cll eists

    crg gxprgssgf b` Guri.

    +34>5 am/dc*

    +34= am/b`dcobtc`t**

    Ueipg nir b`ergcsgf prifuetbi`

    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: obikcss b`ergcsg

    Rbglf b`ergcsg b` 388 % in cpplbecolg crgc

    Cvgrcmg cosilutg ybglf b`ergcsg: 3,4>5 am/dc

    Cvgrcmg ybglf b`ergcsg: c

    Gei`ikbe b`fbectirs

    Cvgrcmg eists:

    B`vgstkg`t eist: 444/dc

    W`btcry eist ygcr 3?: 6==/ti`***

    W`btcry eist lbngtbkg: 68/ti`

    Cmmrgmctg b`fbectirs**:

    Utufy sbtg: 35.7 kbllbi` Cumkg`tgf c `ucl prifuetbi`: ?4,?>8 ti`

    Cumkg`tgf titcl prifuetbi`: 552,333 ti`

    *@itg: tdbs ybglf b`ergcsg bs nir nrgsd wgbmdt ilbvgs

    **@itg: tdg pgr dgetcrg b`ergcsg bs i`ly ngcsbolg i` 3/>td

    in tdg cpplbecolg crgc fug ti tdg ectedkg`t ti erippgf crgc rctbi

    (EE_) in jgssiur c`f tcobcs. Vdgsg vclugs rgnlget tdbs rgfuetbi`.

    ***@itg: ygcr 3? bs tdg nbrst ygcr wdg` null prifuetbi` bs rgcedgf

    Rbglf b`ergcsg

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    Zguss-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Mliocl Ueg`crbi:

    Kb`bkbzb`m lc`f fgmrcfctbi`

    Vdg kb`bkbzb`m lc`f fgmrcfctbi` seg`crbi sglgets tdg

    tged`ilimy wbtd tdg dbmdgst kbtbmctb`m gnnget i` lc`f

    fgmrcfctbi` ir `i`g bn tdg ocsglb`g sbtuctbi`

    fgki`strctgs tdg liwgst rctg in lc`f fgmrcfctbi`.

    Vdg bkplgkg`tctbi` eists nir tdg titcl stufy crgc crg

    ecleulctgf c`f eist-prifuetbvbty rglctbi`s cssgssgf.

    Vi nceblbtctg eikpcrbsi` ogtwgg` fbnngrg`t stufy

    sbtgs, cll eists crg gxprgssgf b` Guri.

    -8.== ti` sibl/dc

    384=/ti` sibl

    Ueipg nir rgfuegf grisbi`

    _gfuetbi` in grisbi` (`gmctbvg vclugs) Xgreg`tcmg in grisbi` rgfuetbi` (`gmctbvg vclugs)

    Obipdysbecl bkpcet: grisbi` rgfuetbi`

    _gfuetbi` in grisbi` b` 388 % in cpplbecolg crgc

    Cvgrcmg cosilutg grisbi` rgfuetbi`: 8.==

    ti``gs/dc/yr

    Cvgrcmg pgreg`t grisbi` rgfuetbi`: 48 %

    Gei`ikbe b`fbectirs

    Cvgrcmg eists:

    B`vgstkg`t eist: 45=/dc

    W`btcry eist ygcr 3: 384=/ti` sibl

    W`btcry eist lbngtbkg: 7=/ti` sibl

    Cmmrgmctg b`fbectirs*:

    Utufy sbtg: 4.>5 kbllbi`

    Cmmrgmctg c``ucl grisbi` rgfuetbi`: 34,?88 ti`

    Vitcl grisbi` rgfuetbi`: 5>7,888 ti`

    *@itg: nir jgssiur c`f tcobcs i`ly 3/>td

    in tdg cpplbecolg crgc bs eiu`tgf ti ceeiu`t nir tdg ectedkg`t ti erippgf crgc

    rctbi (EE_) b`vilvgf b` tdgsg tged`ilimbgs.

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    Zgus-Aiutb`g, Vu`bsbc

    Ei`elufb`m rgkcras

    Ocsglb`g sbkulctbi`s sdiw tdct tdg Zgus-Aiutb`g crgc dcs kistly liw sibl grisbi` rctgs, wbtd rctgs ivgr ?ti`/dc/yr ei`nb`gf ti coiut ?8% in tdg tgrrbtiry.

    Jgssiur, tcobc, supplgkg`tcl brrbmctbi`, rc`mglc f rgstb`m c`f mriu`fwctgr rgedcrmg strueturgs wgrg

    prbirbtbsgf oy sebg`tbsts c`f liecl stcagdilfgrs ti kbtbmbtg sibl grisbi`, wctgr secrebty c`f vgmgtctbi`

    fgmrcfctbi`. Cvcblcolg fctc clliwgf ti sbkulctg tdg gnngets in jgssiur (VW@82), rc`mglc`f rgstb`m (VW@33)

    c`f tcobcs (VW@3?). Vdg tged`ilimy seg`crbis sdiw tdct jgssiur, c`f ti lgssgr gxtg`t tcobcs crg gnngetbvg b`

    rgfueb`m grisbi` rctgs. Vdg gnnget in rc`mglc`f rgstb`m bs `it vgry pri`iu`egf, pissboly ogecusg tdg crbfbty

    in tdg crgc kgc`s vgmgtctbvg sibl eivgr rgkcb`s lbkbtgf gvg` bn `it mrczgf. Jgssiur c`f tcobc ec` oy

    ei`eg`trctb`m ru`inn ct c rctbi in ectedkg`t ti erippgf crgc in > : 3 mrgctly g`dc`eg obikcss prifuetbi`.

    Vdg tbkg seclg ivgr wdbed tdbs ieeurs bs `it spgebnbeclly cffrgssgf b` rgsgcred, out cs ilbvg trggs crg plc`tgf

    bt tcags sgvgrcl ygcrs nir trggs ti ceeukulctg tdg bkpirtc`t b`ergcsg b` obikcss. Gxpgrbkg`tcl rgsults wgrg

    dckpgrgf oy friumdts c`f sdirt ki`btirb`m pgrbif. Fug ti dbmd b`btbcl eist tdg tgstgf tged`ilimbgs crg

    i`ly b` tdg li`m tgrk (0 38 ygcrs, ir gvg` 0?8) prinbtcolg. Vcobcs pgrnirk ogst c`f crg sbkulctgf ti ogprinbtcolg b` ivgr =7% in tdg cpplbecolg crgc ivgr c ?8-ygcr plc``b`m dirbzi`. Jgssiur crg tii gxpg`sbvg ti

    `gwly fgvglip eist-gnngetbvgly, out kcb`tcb`b`m gxbstb`m i`gs bs gei`ikbeclly ngcsbolg b` coiut c tdbrf in tdg

    crgc.

    B` tdg wirasdip ti gvcluctg ki`btirb`m c`f kifgllb`m rgsults, stcagdilfgrs fiw`mrcfgf cll tgstgf

    tged`ilimbgs, gbtdgr ogecusg tdgy wgrg b`btbclly cssgssgf tii pisbtbvgly ir ogecusg in b`ei`elusbvg

    gxpgrbkg`tcl rgsults. C mrgctgr eipb`m coblbty wbtd tdg dcrsd g`vbri`kg`t c`f cfvgrsg elbkctbe ei`fbtbi`s

    wcs ei`sbfgrgf gssg`tbcl oy pcrtbebpc`ts, wdi `iw ediisg nir mriu`fwctgr rgedcrmg strueturgs,

    supplgkg`tcl brrbmctbi` c`f kgfbeb`cl dgros c`f crikctbe plc`ts cs prgngrrgf tged`ilimbgs.

    _geikkg`fctbi`s nir upseclb`m b`elufgf tdg strgcklb`b`m in vcrbius rgsgcred c`f fgvglipkg`t cetbvbtbgs,

    b`tgmrctbi` in liecl c`f sebg`tbnbe a`iwlgfmg c`f tdg `ggf ti liia ct lc`f kc`cmgkg`t b`tgmrclly wbtd

    fbvgrsbnbectbi` in lbvglbdiif ippirtu`btbgs.

    C pilbey seg`crbi in tdg gxbstb`m mivgr`kg`t pilbey ti suosbfbzg supplgkg`tcry nggf nir c`bkcls sdiwgf

    dbmd gnngetbvg`gss b` cumkg`tb`m tdg prinbtcoblbty in rc`mglc`f rgstb`m b` 26% in tdg cpplbecolg crgc. Uued c

    suosbfy wiulf diwgvgr rgfueg sibl grisbi` i`ly oy i` cvgrcmg 8.3 ti`/dc/yr, ct c eist inV@F 2>6 pgr ti`(64?) in sibl ei`sgrvgf. Nir jgssiur c`f tcobcs, c pilbey seg`crbi rgfueb`m tdg b`vgstkg`t eist oy 78% wcs

    ru`. ]dblg nir jgssiur, tdg b`vgstkg`t c`f kcb`tg`c`eg eist wgrg si dbmd tdct tdg pilbey bs `it gnngetbvg,

    sued c pilbey g`colgs tcobcs ti ogeikg prinbtcolg cntgr 38 ygcrs b` >6% in tdg cpplbecolg crgc.

    Vdg mliocl seg`crbis sdiw tdct tdg tged`ilimbgs ec` cedbgvg vgry sbm`bnbec`t ybglf b`ergcsgs c`f grisbi`

    rgfuetbi`s b` tdg g`tbrg cpplbecoblbty crgc. Vdg b`vgstkg`t eists ti cedbgvg tdbs crg liw ct 68/ti` ilbvgs

    c`f 7=/ti` sibl ei`sgrvgf. Xgr crgc u`bt, b`vgstkg`t eists crg `gvgrtdglgss suostc`tbcl ct ivgr 488/dc.

    Jgssiur c`f tcobcs crg b` nbrst b`stc`eg wctgr dcrvgstb`m tged`ilimbgs ti clliw kcab`m prifuetbvg usg in

    lc`f b` c` crgc itdgrwbsg tii crbf nir c`y nirk in cmrbeulturg gxegpt gxtg`sbvg mrczb`m. _c`mglc`f rgstb`mkcy rgstirg vgmgtctbi` out rgqubrgs c orbfmb`m pgrbif in niur ygcrs furb`m wdbed nggf kust og puredcsgf

    nrik kcragts. Cll tdgsg kgcsurgs rgkcb` erbtbeclly lb`agf ti rcb`ncll, cs tdg pgrnirkc`eg furb`m nbglf

    gxpgrbkg`tctbi` elgcrly b`fbectgf.