WP5.3 Model Simulations Yan River Basin

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Yan River Basin

1/14

_cj Xoymx Hcqoj. Abojc

Qt}d qotm dmtconq

Tbm bo`bn doqqmatmd _cj Xoymx actablmjt oq c txoh}tcx tk tbm _mnnkp Xoymx cjd kxo`ojctmq ixkl tbm Hco}lk}jtcojq kj tbm Nkmqq Vnctmc}*

Akkxdojctmq7Nctot}dm7 19811030 J

Nkj`ot}dm7 3624=33682 M

Qowm7 0.902 el Cntot}dm7 4?=,30?= l Vxmaovotctokj7 486,=16 ll+mcx Tmlvmxct}xm7 2*=A 33*4A

Ncjd }qm7 axkvncjd. dcl,ncjd. vcdd iomnd. ikxmqtvncjtctokjq. qbx}h. acqb txmmq. kxabcxdq cjd

`xcqqncjd

Ojbchotcjtq7 923.461 "3???/ Lcoj dm`xcdctokj vxkamqqmq7 pctmx mxkqokj cjd

qmdolmjtctokj ki xmqmxykoxq cjd xoymxhmd

Lcgkx dxoymxq ki dm`xcdctokj7 `nkhcn abcj`m5 ncaeki xmqk}xamq ikx aklhctoj` cjd lkjotkxoj` ncjd

dm`xcdctokj

Nkactokj ki tbm _cj Xoymx Hcqoj

Kymxyomp ki qamjcxokq

3* Hcqmnojm Qamjcxok7 VMQMXC hcqmnojm x}j8* Tmabjknk` Qamjcxok7 Hmjab tmxxcamq potb nkmqq qkon pcnn "ABJ=3/1* Tmabjknk` Qamjcxok7 Abmaedcl ikx ncjd "ABJ=8/4* Tmabjknk` Qamjcxok7 _mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd "ABJ=1/=* Vknoa Qamjcxok7 Q}hqodowoj` tmxxcaoj` cjd abmaedclq "ABJ=3,=1/9* Cdkvtokj Qamjcxok7 Hmjab tmxxcamq potb nkmqq qkon pcnn "ABJ=3/. Abmaedcl ikx ncjd "ABJ=8/ cjd _mcx,citmx,

mcx tmxxcamd ncjd "ABJ=1/

0* @nkhcn Qamjcxok7 Ikkd vxkd}atokj2* @nkhcn Qamjcxok7 Lojolowoj` ncjd dm`xcdctokj


2/14


Hcqmnojm Qamjcxok

VMQMXC hcqmnojm x}j

Tbm mxkqokj cjd hoklcqq hcqmnojm lcvq xmvxmqmjt c

ycxomt ki ncjd }qmq* Cntbk}`b mxkqokj xctmq cxm

anmcxn bo`b oj lcj vcxtq ki tbm qt}d cxmc. tbm

vcttmxj oq vctab* Hoklcqq vxkd}atokj qbkpq c

vcttmxj ki anolctoa akjdotokjq h}t oq cnqk vctab

xminmatoj` doiimxmjamq oj ncjd }qm tvmq*

Qkon mxkqokj

Hoklcqq vxkd}atokj

Hoklcqq

Ncjdikxlq

Qkon mxkqokj


3/14


Tmabjknk` Qamjcxok7

Hmjab tmxxcamq potb nkmqq qkon pcnn "ABJ=3/

Ot oq cqq}lmd tbct cvvnmq cxm `xkpj kj tmxxcamq* Cbcxymqt tk tktcn txmm hoklcqq ojdmr ki 6*3? oq }qmd

hcqmd kj qmakjdcx dctc

Potbk}t acqm oq }jvxkd}atoym cq amxmcn axkvvoj`kj qnkvmq oq ojdoactmd tk lcem c nkqq

Cvvnm vxoam ki AJ_ 3*=+e` "6*32/ oq }qmd C 36- doqak}jt xctm cjd cj makjkloa noim ki 86

mcxq pmxm cqq}lmd

Cvvnmq vxkd}am 8=- oj mcx 4. =6- oj _=. 0=- oj_9 cjd cabomym i}nn vxkd}atokj oj _0*

I}xtbmx akqt dmtconq }jdmx yochonot hmnkp*

Cvvnoachonot

Tbm tmabjknk` oq cvvnoachnm kj ncjd }jdmx cxchnmkx txmm axkvq kj qnkvmq bo`bmx

tbcj 8-*

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 qkon mxkqokj

Potbk}t tmabjknk` Potb hmjab tmxxcamq

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 ojaxmcqm oj hoklcqq

Cvvnoachonot

Hoklcqq ojaxmcqm Vmxamjtc`m hoklcqq ojaxmcqm


4/14

Makjkloa yochonot

I}xtbmx cqq}lvtokjq ikx iojcjaocn cjcnqoq7

Tbm akqt ki tmxxcaoj` ycxomq potb qnkvm* Kj tkv ki

ojymqtlmjt akqt oj tmxxcaoj` "xcj`m AJ_ 26

1=.1?8 "o*m* 36 4.1=2/ ikx qnkvmq ixkl 8 tk

0?- xmqvmatoymn5 lmcj AJ_ 36.294 4?63

"o*m* 3112 961// txmm vncjtoj` akqtq ki

AJ_ 8.6=8 "8=1/ cxm caak}jtmd ikx* Cjj}cn

lcojtmjcjam akqtq cxm qmt ct 34*=- ki ojotocn

ojymqtlmjt akqtq* Vxkd}atokj akqtq ikx cvvnm

vxkd}atokj "abmloacn ojv}tq cjd nchk}x/ cxm AJ_

?.994 "3.3?6/*

Potb tbmqm cqq}lvtokjq. hmjab tmxxcaoj` oq vxkiotchnm

oj qno`btn nmqq tbcj bcni ki tbm cvvnoachnm cxmc* Tbm

pmqtmxj vcxt ki tbm qt}d cxmc "lkxm vxkd}atoym/ cjd

tbm nmqq qtmmv qnkvmq cxm tbm lkqt yochnm cxmcq*

Dmqvotm tbm vxkiotchonot. tbm icat tbct tbm vchcaevmxokd ki tbm ojymqtlmjt oq nkj` "ankqm tk 86 mcxq/

lo`bt dmtmx ncjd }qmxq ixkl cvvnoj` tbm tmabjknk`*

Jmt vxmqmjt ycn}m citmx 86 mcxq


5/14


Tmabjknk` Qamjcxok7

Abmaedcl ikx ncjd "ABJ=8/

Ot oq cqq}lmd tbct lcowm oq `xkpj* C bcxymqt ojdmr"BO/. qmt ct 6*4. pcq }qmd cjd l}ntovnomd potb tbm

doiimxmjam oj lcrol}l ym`mtctokj

Lcowm vxoam ki AJ_ 3*=0+e` "6*3?/ oq }qmd C 36- doqak}jt xctm cjd cj makjkloa noim ki 86

mcxq pmxm cqq}lmd

Hmac}qm akjqtx}atokj ki dclq tcemq lkxm tbcjkjm mcx. tbm `xkqq doiimxmjam oj k}tv}t acj hm

mrvmatmd ixkl mcx 8 kjpcxdq

Ikx i}xtbmx dmtconq qmm }jdmx yochonot hmnkpCvvnoachonot

Tbm tmabjknk` oq kjn cvvnoachnm oj ycnnmhkttklq potb qnkvmq nkpmx tbcj 86-.

pboab xmqtxoatq ot tk ?- ki tbm cxmc*

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 xmd}atokj ki mxkqokj

Qkon mxkqokj citmx olvnmlmjtctokjki abmae,dclq ikx ncjd oq qtonn bo`b5

tboq oq d}m tk tbm cqq}lvtokj ki c

lcowm axkv hmoj` `xkpj* C xmd}a,

tokj ki hmtpmmj 1,=- xmnctoym tk

lcowm }jdmx hcqmnojm akjdotokjq

oq khtcojmd* Bkpmymx. tbm tmabjknk` oq ojtmjdmd

tk bcxymqt tbm qkon nkqt }vqtxmcl tk axmctm jmp

ncjd5 bmjam tbm jmt miimat dkpjqtxmcl ponn hm

qo`joioacjt "tboq ak}nd jkt hm lkdmnnmd/*

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 ojaxmcqm oj omnd

Tbm tmabjknk` nmcdq tk q}hqtcjtocnomnd ojaxmcqmq tbxk}`bk}t tbm

cvvnoachonot cxmc* Lcowm omndq

ojaxmcqm h 9=,2?- xmnctoym tk

lcowm xkpj }jdmx hcqmnojm

akjdotokjq*

_omnd doiimxmjam

Qkon mxkqokj

Cvvnoachonot


6/14

Makjkloa yochonot

Oi ot oq cqq}lmd tbct mcab abmae,dcl olvnmlmjtmd

xmq}ntq oj c 3 bmatcxm ki olvxkymd axkvvoj` ncjd. tbm

tmabjknk` oq tkk mrvmjqoym* Ojymqtlmjt akqtq

clk}jt tk AJ_ 46.4?= "4.??1/ cjd lcojtm,

jcjam akqtq tk AJ_ ?66 "333/ vmx mcx*

Oi 3 bc ki txmctmd ncjd nmcdq tk 1 bc

ncjd potb olvxkymd omnd. tbm cjcnqmq

xmymxtq tk c 366- vxkiotchnm k}taklm*

Ot oq bmjam olvkxtcjt tk qt}d mcab nkactokj pbmxm

tbm tmabjknk` pk}nd hm olvnmlmjtmd tk cqqmqq

mrvmatmd akqtq cjd hmjmiotq oj c imcqohonot qt}d* Kii,

qotm olvcatq bcym jkt hmmj ycn}md h}t pk}nd. oi

qmdolmjtctokj oq tbm lcoj akjamxj. hm ymx vkqotoym*

Jmt vxmqmjt ycn}m oi xctok ojymqtlmjt7

olvxkymd axkvvoj` ncjd 373

Jmt vxmqmjt ycn}m oi xctok ojymqtlmjt7

olvxkymd axkvvoj` ncjd 371


7/14


Tmabjknk` Qamjcxok7

_mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd "ABJ=1/

Ot oq cqq}lmd tbct cvvnmq cxm `xkpj kj tmxxcamq* Cbcxymqt tk tktcn txmm hoklcqq ojdmr ki 6*3? oq }qmd

hcqmd kj qmakjdcx dctc

Potbk}t acqm oq }jvxkd}atoym cq amxmcn axkvvoj`kj qnkvmq oq ojdoactmd tk lcem c nkqq

Cvvnm vxoam ki AJ_ 3*=+e` "6*32/ oq }qmd C 36- doqak}jt xctm oq cqq}lmd. potb tmxxcamq

`xcd}cnn akjqtx}atmd kymx = mcxq*

Cvvnmq vxkd}am 8=- oj mcx 4. =6- oj _=. 0=- oj_9 cjd cabomym i}nn vxkd}atokj oj _0*

I}xtbmx akqt dmtconq }jdmx yochonot hmnkp*Cvvnoachonot

Tbm tmabjknk` oq cvvnoachnm kj ncjd }jdmx cxchnmkx txmm axkvq kj qnkvmq bo`bmx tbcj 8-*

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 qkon mxkqokj

Potbk}t tmabjknk` Ojotocn mcxq. hcxm qkon

Kj mcx citmx mcx tmxxcamd ncjd. ot lcttmxq bkp

`xk}jd akymx oq lcjc`md oj cvvnm kxabcxdq

mqvmaocnn oj tbm ojotocn mcxq* Oi tbm `xk}jd oq emvt

hcxm. qkon nkqq oq `xmctn xmd}amd h}t kj cymxc`m qtonn

clk}jtq tk 3*89 tkj+bc+mcx* Oi tbm `xk}jd oq emvt

akymxmd. m*`* tbxk}`b ym`mtctmd qtxovq kx l}nab. tbm

cymxc`m qkon nkqq dxkvq tk kjn 6*68 tkj+bc+mcx* Tbm

ncttmx oq aklvcxchnm oj vmxikxlcjam tk hmjab tmxxcamq

"ABJ=3/*

Ojotocn mcxq. `xk}jd akymx

Cvvnoachonot


8/14

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 ojaxmcqm oj hoklcqq

Makjkloa yochonot

I}xtbmx cqq}lvtokjq ikx iojcjaocn cjcnqoq7

Tbm akqt ki tmxxcaoj` ycxomq potb qnkvm5 akqtq xcj`m

ixkl AJ_ 1631.38? "o*m* 4 3.930/ikx qnkvmq ixkl 8 tk 0?- "lmcj AJ_ 4.63?

3.26= "o*m* 4?= 888//. cjd cxm qvxmcd

k}t ms}cnn kymx ioym mcxq* Oj cddotokj. txmm

vncjtoj` akqtq ki AJ_ 8.6=8 "8=1/ cxm tcemj

ojtk caak}jt* Cjj}cn lcojtmjcjam akqtq cxm qmt ct

9*0- ki ojymqtlmjt akqtq* Vxkd}atokj akqtq ikx cvvnm

vxkd}atokj "abmloacn ojv}tq cjd nchk}x/ cxm AJ_

?.994 "3.3?6/*

Potb tbmqm cqq}lvtokjq. oj c toj vcxt ki tbm

cvvnoachnm cxmc "mrtxmlm pmqt/ mcx,citmx,mcx

tmxxcaoj` oq vxkiotchnm citmx 36 mcxq* Tboq oq ojtbm mrtxmlm pmqtmxj vcxt ki tbm qt}d cxmc*

Pbmj pm mrtmjd tbm cjcnqoq tk 86 mcxq. tbm

vxkiotchonot lcv qpcvq aklvnmtmn. potb tbm

lkqt vxkiotchnm wkjmq oj tbm pmqt cjd oj tbm nmqq

qtmmv ycnnm inkkxq* _omnd nmymnq cxm jkt ojin}mjamd h

tbm icat pbmtbmx c `xk}jd akymx oq lcojtcojmd kx jkt.

cjd cxm lkxmkymx oj c`xmmlmjt potb tbkqm vxmdoatmd

}jdmx hmjab tmxxcaoj`*

Hoklcqq ojaxmcqm Vmxamjtc`m hoklcqq ojaxmcqm




9/14


Vknoa Qamjcxok7

Q}hqodoqoj` tmxxcaoj` cjd abmaedclq "ABJ=3,=1/

Ct c tolm bkxowkj ki 36 mcxq. jkjm ki tbm tmabjknk`omq

oq vxkiotchnm cjd mymj citmx 86 mcxq hmjab tmxxcamq cxm

jkt iojcjaocnn cttxcatoym* Ncjd }qmxq cxm }jnoemn tk pcot

nkj`mx ikx hmjmiotq tk caax}m* Bmjam akqtq ki tbm

tmabjknk` jmmd tk hm xmd}amd* Tboq oq vkqqohnm tbxk}`b

c q}hqod. pboab ak}nd m*`* hm vcxt ki c vclmjt ikx

makqqtml qmxyoamq qabmlm cq tbmxm cxm qo`joioacjt

dkpjqtxmcl miimatq7 xmd}aoj` qmdolmjtctokj cjd inkkd

xoqe oj tbm _mnnkp Xoymx hcqoj* Oj tboq qamjcxok c akqt

xmd}atokj ms}cn tk =6- ki tbm ojymqtlmjt akqtq oq

mrvnkxmd*

=6-

Vxkiotchonot7

Potbk}t q}hqod Potb q}hqod

ABJ=3. 86 mcxq

ABJ=8. 86 mcxq. xctok 373

ABJ=8. 86 mcxq. xctok 371


10/14

Akqt,miimatoymjmqq ojdoactkxq7

C xmd}atokj oj ojymqtlmjt akqtq ki =6- oq mqvmaocnn olvkxtcjt ikx hmjab tmxxcamq. pboab tbmj hmaklmvxkiotchnm oj 03- ki tbm cvvnoachnm cxmc "}v ixkl =6-/. hcqmd kj tbm jmt vxmqmjt ycn}m citmx 86 mcxq*

Tboq ponn xmq}nt oj cj cymxc`m xmd}atokj ki mxkqokj ki 9*=9 tkj+bc+mcx* Oj tktcn. cj cjj}cn xmd}atokj ki =6=.482 tkjjmq ki mxkdmd qkon acj hm mrvmatmd* Oi tbm akqt xmd}atokj pk}nd hm oj tbm ikxl ki c q}hqod. tbm tktcn akqt pk}nd hm AJ_ 3.?8= lonnokj "810

lonnokj/. ojan}doj` tbkqm cxmcq pbmxm hmjab tmxxcamq pk}nd cnxmcd hm imcqohnm h}t jkt akjqodmxoj`

q}hqodomq ikx mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd cjd abmaedclq ikx ncjd* Bmjam c akqt,miimatoymjmqq ki AJ_ 1.262+tkj "406/ ki qkon akjqmxymd*

ABJ=1. 86 mcxq

ABJ=1. 36 mcxq


11/14


Cdkvtokj Qamjcxok7

Hmjab tmxxcamq potb nkmqq qkon pcnn "ABJ=3/. Abmaedcl ikx ncjd

"ABJ=8/ cjd _mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd "ABJ=1/

Cj cdkvtokj qamjcxok akjqodmxq tbm qol}nctmd

tmabjknk`omq "oi lkxm tbcj kjm/ oj akjg}jatokj cjd

cqq}lmq tbct tbm lkqt vxkiotchnm kvtokj bcq tbm bo`bmqt

vktmjtocn ikx }vtcem h ncjd }qmxq* Oj kxdmx tk lcem tbm

jmt vxmqmjt ycn}m ki doiimxmjt kvtokjq aklvcxchnm. tbm

qclm tolm bkxowkj oq cvvnomd tk tbm cjcnqoq* Ikx _cj

Xoymx Hcqoj. hmjab tmxxcamq "ABJ=3/. abmaedclq ikx

ncjd "ABJ=8/ cjd mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd

"ABJ=1/ cxm akjqodmxmd* Cnn tbxmm kvtokjq cxm

aklvcxmd ikx c 86 mcx tolm bkxowkj. caakxdoj` tk

qvmaoioactokjq oj tbm tmabjknk` qamjcxokq* Ikxabmaedclq. c xctok ki txmctmd tk akjqmxymd cxmc ki 371

oq cqq}lmd*

Loto`ctokj kvtokjq

Tbm tbxmm loto`ctokj kvtokjq cxm cnn cvvnoachnm oj ?-ki tbm cxmc5 tpk kvtokjq cxm cyconchnm oj 44- ki tbm

cxmc5 cjd tbmxm cxm jk cvvnoachnm tmabjknk`omq ikx tbm

xmlcojoj` 40- ki tbm cxmc*

Cdkvtokj ki lkqt vxkiotchnm tmabjknk`

Potbk}t vknoaomq

Potb vknoaomq w w w w

J}lhmx ki kvtokjq


12/14


@nkhcn Qamjcxok7

Ikkd vxkd}atokj

Tbm ikkd vxkd}atokj qamjcxok qmnmatq tbm tmabjknk`

potb tbm bo`bmqt c`xoa}nt}xcn vxkd}atoyot "hoklcqq/ ikx

mcab amnn pbmxm c bo`bmx vxkd}atoyot tbcj oj tbm

hcqmnojm qamjcxok oq cabomymd* Tbm olvnmlmjtctokj akqtq

ikx tbm tktcn qt}d cxmc cxm acna}nctmd cjd akqt,

vxkd}atoyot xmnctokjq cqqmqqmd* Tk icaonotctm aklvcxoqkj

hmtpmmj doiimxmjt qt}d qotmq. cnn akqtq cxm mrvxmqqmd oj

M}xk*

%34.808 e`+bc'

%0.283 e`+ojbchotcjt

Qakvm ikx ojaxmcqmd vxkd}atokj

_omnd ojaxmcqm

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 omnd ojaxmcqm

_omnd ojaxmcqm oj 366 - ki cvvnoachnm cxmc Cymxc`m chqkn}tm omnd ojaxmcqm7 34.808 e`+bc Cymxc`m omnd ojaxmcqm7 jcMakjkloa ojdoactkxq

Cymxc`m akqtq7

Ojymqtlmjt akqt7 3.36?+bc ]jotcx akqt mcx 07 02+tkj'' ]jotcx akqt noimtolm7 =+tkj

C``xm`ctm ojdoactkxq7

Qt}d qotm7 434 lonnokj C}`lmjtmd cjj}cn vxkd}atokj7 =.18?.8=6 tkj C}`lmjtmd tktcn vxkd}atokj7 28.961.10= tkj

'Jktm7 tboq omnd ojaxmcqm oq ikx ixmqb pmo`bt cvvnmq''Jktm7 mcx 0 oq tbm ioxqt mcx pbmj i}nn vxkd}atokj oq xmcabmd


13/14


@nkhcn Qamjcxok7

Lojolowoj` ncjd dm`xcdctokj

Tbm lojolowoj` ncjd dm`xcdctokj qamjcxok qmnmatq tbm

tmabjknk` potb tbm bo`bmqt loto`ctoj` miimat kj ncjd

dm`xcdctokj kx jkjm oi tbm hcqmnojm qot}ctokj

dmlkjqtxctmq tbm nkpmqt xctm ki ncjd dm`xcdctokj*

Tbm olvnmlmjtctokj akqtq ikx tbm tktcn qt}d cxmc cxm

acna}nctmd cjd akqt,vxkd}atoyot xmnctokjq cqqmqqmd*

Tk icaonotctm aklvcxoqkj hmtpmmj doiimxmjt qt}d

qotmq. cnn akqtq cxm mrvxmqqmd oj M}xk*

,9*18 tkj qkon+bc

838+tkj qkon

Qakvm ikx xmd}amd mxkqokj

Xmd}atokj ki mxkqokj "jm`ctoym ycn}mq/ Vmxamjtc`m ki mxkqokj xmd}atokj "jm`ctoym ycn}mq/

Hokvbqoacn olvcat7 mxkqokj xmd}atokj

Xmd}atokj ki mxkqokj oj 366 - ki cvvnoachnm cxmc Cymxc`m chqkn}tm mxkqokj xmd}atokj7 9*18

tkjjmq+bc+x

Cymxc`m vmxamjt mxkqokj xmd}atokj7 ??*? -Makjkloa ojdoactkxq

Cymxc`m akqtq7

Ojymqtlmjt akqt7 3112+bc ]jotcx akqt mcx 37 838+tkj qkon ]jotcx akqt noimtolm7 33+tkj qkon

C``xm`ctm ojdoactkxq7

Qt}d qotm7 =66 lonnokj C``xm`ctm cjj}cn mxkqokj xmd}atokj7 8*19 lonnokj

tkj

Tktcn mxkqokj xmd}atokj7 40*8 lonnokj tkj


14/14


Akjan}doj` xmlcxeq

Hcqmnojm qol}nctokjq qbkp c lormd voat}xm ki qkon mxkqokj oj tbm _cj Xoymx Hcqoj cxmc7 xk}`bn ms}cn vcxtq kitbm cxmc mrvmxomjam qkon mxkqokj xctmq hmnkp 3 tkj+bc+x. hmtpmmj 8 cjd = tkj+bc+x cjd kymx = tkj+bc+x* Qor kvtokjq pmxm vxokxotoqmd h qaomjtoqtq cjd nkacn qtcembkndmxq tk akjtxkn qkon mxkqokj7 nmymn hmjab tmxxcamq5

xmikxmqtctokj5 abmaedclq5 nmymn `xkkym kj tbm qnkvm5 ioqb,qacnm votq5 cjd l}naboj`* Tbxmm tmabjknkòmq pmxm

tmqtmd7 nmymn hmjab tmxxcamq "ABJ=3/. abmaedclq "ABJ=8/ cjd xmikxmqtctokj* Xmikxmqtctokj pcq jkt

lkdmnnmd h}t xmvncamd h mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd "ABJ=1/* Tbm tmabjknk` qamjcxokq qbkp tbct hktb

tmxxcaoj` tmabjknkòmq acj dxcqtoacnn xmd}am mxkqokj xctmq5 tboq pcq akjioxlmd oj iomnd xcojicnn qol}nctokj

mrvmxolmjtq* Abmaedclq cxm nmqq miimatoym oj xmd}aoj` x}jkii potboj tbm iomnd h}t acvt}xm qmdolmjtq oj,

qtxmcl tk h}ond }v tmxxcam ncjd* Tbm dkpjqtxmcl miimatq ponn tb}q qtonn hm qo`joioacjt* Lcowm kj abmaedcl

ncjd omndmd 06,?6- bo`bmx omndq tbcj oj hcqmnojm qot}ctokj caakxdoj` tk VMQMXC qol}nctokjq* Tbm

doiimxmjam khqmxymd oj iomnd mrvmxolmjtq pcq bo`bmx "0,iknd/* Hoklcqq kj tmxxcamq ojaxmcqmd qvmatca}ncxn

h}t potb cjd potbk}t qot}ctokjq acjjkt xmcnn hm aklvcxmd cq cxchnm ncjd oq akjymxtmd tk cvvnm kxabcxdq*

Hmoj` qtx}at}xcn qkon akjqmxyctokj lmcq}xmq. ojymqtlmjt akqtq cxm bo`b* Nmcqt akqtn oq mcx,citmx,mcxtmxxcamd ncjd. pboab lkxmkymx bcq tbm cdycjtc`m ki `xcd}cn ojymqtlmjt xms}oxmlmjtq* H}t cq cvvnm txmmq

jmmd tk `xkp tk lct}xot hmikxm tbm qtcxt vxkd}aoj`. tbmxm oq c tolm nc` pboab lmcjq tbm vc,hcae vmxokd

ikx tmxxcaoj` kaa}xq kjn citmx c lojol}l ki 36 mcxq. h}t tvoacnn oj tbm xcj`m ki 86 mcxq* Ikx abmaedclq

tbm clk}jt ki ncjd tbct acj hm `cojmd oq cj olvkxtcjt ycxochnm xms}oxoj` nkacn. qotm,qvmaoioa vncjjoj`* Oi c

xctok ki 371 oq cqq}lmd. tbm tmabjknk` oq vxkiotchnm kymx c vmxokd ki 86 mcxq*

Oj tbm pkxeqbkv tk mycn}ctm lkjotkxoj` cjd lkdmnnoj` xmq}ntq. qtcembkndmxq xmciioxlmd tbmox vxokxotojtmxmqt oj abmaedclq* Nkp lcojtmjcjam akqtq cjd bo`b vxkd}atoyot pmxm olvkxtcjt icatkxq oj g}qtoioj`

tbmox abkoam* Tmxxcamq pmxm jkt ymx vkv}ncx d}m tk nkp vxkd}atoyot "ki lcowm/ cjd nkj` `cv hmikxm txmmq

hmaklm vxkd}atoym "cvvnmq/*

C vknoa qamjcxok xmd}aoj` ojymqtlmjt akqtq h =6- ikx cnn tmabjknkòmq dod jkt lcem c ncx`m doiimxmjam ojvktmjtocn }vtcem "hcqmd kj vxkiotchonot/ ki abmaedclq cjd mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd* Bkpmymx. nmymnhmjab tmxxcamq hmaklm ki ojtmxmqt oj cj cddotokjcn 83- ki tbm cvvnoachnm cxmc* Q}ab c q}hqod pk}nd xmd}am

qkon mxkqokj oj tbm ojaxmlmjtcn cxmc h kj cymxc`m =*9 tkj+bc+x. cjd ct c akqt ki AJ_ 1.26 2+tkj "406/*

Q}ab q}hqodomq dk bkpmymx jkt lcem c jktchnm doiimxmjam oj hxodòj` tbm vxkd}atokj `cv7 citmx 36 mcxq oj

lkqt ki tbm acqmq tbm tmabjknk` oq jkt mt vxkiotchnm* Q}hqodomq lo`bt hm g}qtoiomd pbmj akjqodmxoj`

dkpjqtxmcl hmjmiotq ki xmd}amd inkkdoj`+qmdolmjtctokj* Tbmqm miimatq pmxm jkt ojan}dmd oj tbm cjcnqoq*

Tbm cdkvtokj qamjcxok q}llcxoqmq tbm chkym7 tbm tmabjknkòmq tmqtmd cxm tk`mtbmx cvvnoachnm oj =1- kitbm qt}d cxmc* Potbk}t vknoaomq. mcx,citmx,mcx tmxxcamd ncjd oq tbm lkqt vxkiotchnm tmabjknk`. potb

abmaedclq q}xvcqqoj` vxkiotq oj oqknctmd nkactokjq oj c xmd}amd j}lhmx ki acqmq* Potb q}hqodomq. tbm

xmnctoym vxkiotchonot ki hmjab tmxxcamq cjd abmaedclq olvxkymq h}t q}hqtot}tmq ncjd pbmxm mcx,citmx,mcx

tmxxcamd ncjd pk}nd hm lkqt hmjmioaocn* Tbmxm oq tb}q jk abcj`m oj tbm tktcn cxmc ki ncjd tbct pk}nd hm

cttxcatoym ikx tmabjknk` olvnmlmjtctokj*

Tbm `nkhcn qamjcxokq qbkp tbct tbm tmabjknk` acj cabomym ymx qo`joioacjt omnd ojaxmcqmq cjd mxkqokjxmd}atokjq oj tbm ycqt lcgkxot ki tbm cvvnoachonot cxmc* Tbm ojymqtlmjt akqtq tk cabomym tboq cxm

lkdmxctmn nkp. ct 02+tkj ikkd vxkd}amd cjd 838+tkj qkon akjqmxymd* Vmx cxmc }jot. ojymqtlmjt akqtq

cxm jmymxtbmnmqq q}hqtcjtocn* Ikkd vxkd}atokj oq bkpmymx ixmqb pmo`bt cvvnmq. pboab acjjkt hm doxmatn

aklvcxmd tk ojdoactkx ycn}mq hcqmd kj `xcoj vxkd}atokj*

Tbm tmabjknkòmq akjqodmxmd cxm ymx miimatoym tk akjqmxym qkon cjd pctmx* Oj tbm acqm ki abmaedclq ikxncjd. vxkd}atoyot ojaxmcqmq cxm ojqtcjt cjd lo`bt g}qtoi tbm bo`b ojymqtlmjt akqtq* Bkpmymx. nkacn

imcqohonot qt}domq jmmd tk hm akjd}atmd kj c acqm,h,acqm hcqoq* Ikx tmxxcaoj`. tbm akqt oq bo`b oj xmnctokj tk

tbm hmjmiotq. pboab. oj tbm acqm ki cvvnm vxkd}atokj. nmcym cj olvkxtcjt }jvxkd}atoym `cv vmxokd* Cq ot

tcemq nkj`mx tbcj 36 mcxq tk qmm c xmt}xj kj ojymqtlmjt. tbm tmabjknk` lo`bt hm ki nmqq ojtmxmqt* ]jdmx

anolctm abcj`m. tbm vmxikxlcjam ki cnn tmabjknkòmq akjqodmxmd ponn olvxkym* Bkpmymx. tbm dkpjqtxmcl

olvcatq qbk}nd hm ojan}dmd oj tbm cqqmqqlmjt ki ncx`m qacnm ojtxkd}atokj ki tmxxcaoj` cjd abmaedclq*

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WP5.3 Model Simulations Yan River Basin