WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of GrowthTrends in Demography, Economy and Trade

D. TsamboulasExternal Consultant

Socio-economic framework Based on existing studies and data available

concerned the economic and social characteristics of each country,the socio-economic framework of today was outlined. TINA Final report SCENARIOS Final report STAC-TEN Final report REBIS Final report TIRS Final report CODE-TEN Deliverables 4 & 8

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Table 1 Population, GDP, Exports-Imports (in 2003)

Basic assumptions for Socio-economic scenarios 2000 as the base year data from 1995-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003

were employed to establish the trends where projections were available they were

used approach to trend analysis in forecasting

involves the use of growth curves

Country groups for forecasting

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Demography Demography is very much influenced by natural

birth and lately by external migration. Contribution of migration to demographic growth in

Group 1 is close to 75%. In Group 2, for some years, since 1993, there has

been a demographic decrease. The demographic evolutions between countries

and within countries show indeed high contrasts inside Group 1 countries and among the rest.

trend analysis in demography forecasting involved the use of growth curves

Table 2 Population projections for Group 1 countries

Table 3 Population projections for Group 2 countries

Table 4 Population projections for Group 3 countries

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Economy For Group 1, forecasts do exist for the year 2020. For the rest, extrapolations to the future years (up

to 2020) are made: Assuming that growth rates in the countries of Group

2 and 3, will gradually converge with average growth rates in countries of Group 1.

However, it is assumed that they are always higher than the growth rates in Group 1.

Table 5 GDP projections for the Group 1 countries

Table 6 GDP projections for the Group 2 countries

Table 7 GDP projections for the Group 3 countries

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Foreign trade For Group 1:

a falling share of primary goods and bulk products, a decreasing share of intermediate goods, a rapidly increasing share of the high value goods.

For Group 2 similar rates of increase for imports and exports as with countries of Group 1.

more detailed geographic analysis will be necessary to investigate the potential growth of trade between neighboring countries in the Baltic areas, the Central Europe area, the Black sea area and the Balkans.

The general trend in countries of Group 3 will follow the trend of Group 2.

Table 8 Exports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 1 countries

Table 9 Imports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 1 countries

Table 10 Exports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 2 countries

Table 11 Imports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 2 countries

Table 12 Exports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 3 countries

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Table 13 Imports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 3 countries

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