WORLD FOOD SECURITY: NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

WORLD FOOD SECURITY:

NEW RISKS AND

OPPORTUNITIES

Joachim von Braun

Ottawa, March 23, 2004

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2

2003/4 Strategic Issues facing IFPRI

1. Future food systems risks and challenges

2. Political system changes and governance problems

3. International trade and investment

4. Consumer and food industry-driven food systems

5. Deficiencies in pro-poor food and agricultural technology

6. Health crises, diet change, nutrition

7. Gender inequality and other discrimination

8. Pro-poor management of natural resources


Hunger in Developing World, with

and without China

920

817

780798

616 624 635663

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001

Millio

ns U

nd

ern

ou

rish

ed

Developing World

Developing w orld

w ithout China

Source: FAO, SOFI 2003


Chronic Undernutrition in Africa

75%

70%

33%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

DR Congo

Burundi

Sub Saharan

Africa

Developing

World

% of undernourishment

Source: FAO SOFI 2003


Old risks and New risks

for food security

Old: Production, Stockholding,

Availability, Prices, “bad” Policies,

“Shocks”

New: Complex Vulnerabilities of the

Poor

THE RISK: Combinations of old and

new Risks


New risks

for food and nutrition security Conflicts: High correlation between conflict

and food insecurity.

HIV/AIDS: Affects 29.4 million people in SSA.

Natural Resources Degradation: Declining soil fertility, declining access to water - food and nutrition crisis?

Hidden Hunger: 3.5 billion in developing world are iron deficient. Towards “Harvest Plus”

Many of the poor more vulnerable


Old? World Grain Market:

Cereal Production 1960-2003

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

mil

lio

n t

on

s


Old? World Cereal Stocks, 1960-2003

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

millio

n t

on

s


Old? World Cereal Prices, 1998-2004

Rice International Price

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

U$S

/To

n

Maize and Wheat International Prices

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

U$S

/To

n

Maize

Wheat


Scenarios of IMPACT Model: 2050

Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:

New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural

Development

Policy Failure Scenario:

Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in

Protectionism Worldwide

Technology and Resource Management Failure

Scenario:

Adverse Technology/Natural Resource

Interactions


World Cereal Area

600

700

800

900

1997 2015 2030 2050

Millio

n h

aProgressive Policy Actions

Policy Failure

Technology and Resource M anagement Failure


World Cereal Production

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1997 2015 2030 2050

mil

lio

n m

tProgressive Policy Actions

Policy Failure



Price of Maize

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

1997 2015 2030 2050

US

$/m

etr

ic t

on

Progressive Policy Actions

Policy Failure



Global per capita MEAT Demand

15

30

45

60

1997 2015 2030 2050

kg

/cap

ita


Policy Failure



Number of Malnourished Children,

Developing World

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1997 2015 2030 2050

Millio

n c

hild

ren


Policy Failure

Technology and Resource Management

Failure


Increased commitment to improve

food security

International Initiatives

• Millennium Development Goals

• World Bank Rural Strategy 2002

Regional Initiatives

• NEPAD

National Governments

• Most food insecure countries have initiated new policies to enhance food security in their countries

• But little change in their budgets


Trade: WTO negotiations

Subsidies in developed countries

High tariffs and other trade barriers

in developed and developing countries

Distort agricultural trade and hinder

progress on food security.


Visible Northern Trade Barriers

US and EU

Agricultural tariffs: 4-5 times those

on manufactured goods

Tariffs escalate on high value and

processed goods


Hidden Northern Trade Barriers

Sanitary, and phytosanitary,

environmental, and social

requirements can often act as non-

tariff barriers


Trade: How to re-start ?

Reform of WTO rules and northern

agricultural policies is not enough.

Developing-country governments

must also reform their own market

and trade policies.

Agriculture Exports are a dynamic force

for poverty reduction


IMPACT: Net Cereal Trade

Developing Countries

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

1997 2015 2030 2050

mil

lio

n m

t


Policy Failure

Technology and Resource Management

Failure


Success Stories

Small farmers in

• East Africa

• Central America

• Vietnam

have entered global fruit and vegetable

markets

Access to Supermarkets?

Less poverty and more staple food

production.


IFPRI’s Strategy


2003 global and country-level research

and outreach


IFPRI’s Food Policy Research Framework

Influence

on policies

Impact on

poor

people

Research

Capacity

strengthening

Policy

communication

Partners, CGIAR,

stakeholders

Policymakers,

media, opinion

leaders, and

IFPRI


Strategic Directions

Global Food

System

Functioning

Global and

National

Food System

Governance

Global Food

System

Innovations


New ways of business: decentralized

IFPRI

San JoseSan JoseAddis AbabaAddis Ababa

NewNew DelhiDelhi

BeijingBeijing


Selected 2003/4 Research & Outreach

HarvestPlus (with CIAT etc.)

Program for Biosafety Systems

Pathways out of Poverty and Safety

Nets

Trade policy (global, regional, national)

IFPRI-ILRI Livestock market policy

NEPAD cooperation in Africa (MOU)


Facilitating Innovation and Quality

External Reviews of IFPRI

Ex-ante reviews of projects

Impact assessment research at IFPRI


Capacity Strengthening

General approach:

Training and capacity strengthening

integrated with our research

Exploring new types of activities:

Collaborative Masters Program agr. econ. in

Africa

CGIAR-Global Open University on

Agricultural and Food (planning)


Policy Communications

Policy Dialogues (e.g. food safety;

biotech)

All –Africa IFPRI 2020 Conference

in Uganda

China-India dialogue

Meeting policymakers one-on-one

Reaching out through media


Research Report

Food Policy Communication

Synthesizing IFPRI’s research

Expert

Insider

Interested

Layperson Press Release

Issue Brief

Food Policy Report


IFPRI-Canada Cooperation

IDRC helped established IFPRI 30

years ago

Canadian experts – IFPRI’s Board

of Trustees

Canadian Researchers – IFPRI staff

Documents

WORLD FOOD SECURITY: NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES