WLW Day 3: New Dimensions of DRR in Asia by KuniyoshiTakeuchi

8/3/2019 WLW Day 3: New Dimensions of DRR in Asia by KuniyoshiTakeuchi

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New Dimensions of DRR in Asia

Kuniyoshi TakeuchiInternational Centre for Water Hazard and RiskManagement under the auspices of UNESCO

(ICHARM)Public Works Research Institute (PWRI)

Tsukuba, Japan

Asian Development Bank9 Nov 2011, Manila, Philippines



How & why did the GEJET happen?

New dimensions of DRR in Asia

What is going to be done?



Ohotsuku plate slippedmax 55m to SESimulation by TakashiKomura, ERI, U Tokyo

20-25m slips

14:46 JST 11 March 2011The main fault: 450km inlength and 150km in width.

@MRI



1. Hei River, Miyako; 2. Kamaishi Harbour; 3. Fukushima Daiichi by TEPCO

Source: youtube



EQ

Tsunami

land subsidence (116cm)

GW/hot spring in/decrease

TsunamiRefugees (82,945**)

Abandoning landBan of shipping

agricultural,livestock and

fishery products

Return of foreigners,Decline of visitors,tourists, conferences,

Stop buying agriculturalproducts

Decline ofNational &

GlobalEconomy

Political unrest

Human &propertydamages

NuclearMeltdown

Electricity

Water

Traffic

Manufacturing

MarketTrade

Communication

Roads

BridgesTransmission lines

Buildings

Transportation

Electricity shortage

Land & GWsalinization

Sea & land radcontamination

NuclearRefugees (97,183***)

Electricity/cooling

Rumors

Radiation

Facilities

D&M 19,636*

*20 Oct by NPA

**25 Aug CO*** 13 June Fk Pref

¥16-25T



Why it happened?

Hazards were extra large: Mw9.0, run-up 38.9m,

• It was “Beyond expectation (Soteigai)”:

since 869 Jogan EQ, Guinness recorded 63m submergedseawall, 123/959 evacuation centers

“Beyond expectation” was not prepared, which

was a violation of law of living with nature.

False comfort & Black Swan events(Taleb, 2007)

Rare, difficult to identify probability but extremely large consequences



Strong amplifier: increased

societal vulnerability Dependence on modern services Total dependence on electricity & IT.

Massive & long-distance transportation.

Interdependent supply chain Highly linked and less redundant societal activities

with nationwide & global supply chain of often

irreplaceable high-tech parts or materials inproduction system. nationwide & global impacts

This is a universal change but especially rapid in Asia



What to do in the future (1)?

Avoid “beyond expectation” to happen.

• Prepare for the probable maximum(theoretical maximum) not only for the recentlyobserved historical maximum.

• Prepare for multi-hazards and potentialunfortunate coincidences of combined events.

(“Tsunami 3m”, crude oil + debris)

• Prepare for potential cascading events.

Aware of potential cascading hazards: natural technological (NATECHs)



What to do in the future (2)?

Avoid concatenation (cascading events) tohappen.

• Protection of key infrastructure

• Power, traffic, communication, administration

• Lifelines, key business/industrial districts

• Redundancy & Distribution

• Redundancy/back-ups in utilities & supply chain

Failure of “just in time” production system to reduce

inventory cost

• Distributed production & management system



Basic Law of Reconstruction

(Passed 20 June 2011) Aim: Construction of lively communities in the

mid 21st Century of Japan

Secure: safety, employment, symbioticsociety with human bondage

Establish: Reconstruction Bond, NationalReconstruction Agency (Ministers Matsumoto, Hirano)

• Seek for a new way of living with nature

• Triple-loop learning, 1st coping, 2nd adapting,3rd transforming



Reconstructionprinciples(28 Sept 2011)

Two levels approachLevel 1 Tsunami(Frequent scale: 50-150years)

Sea walls, highways:

Level 2 Tsunami(Maximum scale: )Move to higher lands

Tall buildings to evacuateLanduse

(park, factories, farmland;commercial/ business,residential areas)

Three patterns of reconstruction plan in Iwate

Seawall

Seawall

Seawall

H W L

H W L

H W L

Evacuation Bldg

Land raising

Wave barrierBldg

Park CM/A Resd

Fact CM Resd

Resd

Land raising

Fishry

Coastal village

Seaside urban damaged

Whole urban destroyed

6 June Hokkaido Shinbun



New Dimensions of DRR

in Asia



Recent water-related disasters

1998 China, 2000 Cambodia 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

2005 Katrina, 2007 Sidr, 2008 Nargis

2009 Morakot , Ketsana 2010 Pakistan, China (Sichuan) , Aila (Bangla)

2011 Rio de Janeiro, Brisbane, South Africa,

Sri Lanka, Mississippi, China, Pakistan, Japan (GEJET, Kii-Peninsula ),

Thailand,

Droughts

Australia 03-09East Africa KES 11

Turkey 99.8.17Kashmir 05.10.8Wenchuan 08.5.13Haiti 10.1.11

Pakistan 11.1.18



New Dimensions of DRR in Asia

Asia is a hot spot of global change

IncreasingVulnerability

in Asia

Climatechange

Avoid “BeyondExpectation”

to happen

Economicdevelopment

Globalization of

economy &interdependency

•Urban extension andencroachment of riskarea•Rural depopulation and

aging

•Higher standard of living.

•Valuable assets, factories.

•Distributed high-techmanufacturing•International propagationof disaster impacts

Urbanconcentration

•Torrential rains•Typhoons•Droughts etc.

No concatenationof disasters

•Higher safety for key infrastructure

•Redundancy/distribution

•Plan for worst-case scenarios



Pressing needs in Asia (1)

Higher public awareness in disaster risk andmainstreaming of DRR in policy making

• Plan for worst-case scenarios multi-hazards, NATECs

• Question is no longer “if” but “when” worst-case

scenarios happen.• DRR should be built in part of development

• Disasters are social and risk is political.

• There is no natural disasters but they are social. Politics

decides social and economic conditions.• Make DRR a priority agenda of politicians

• High public support for politicians‟ driving DRR

• Plan political Will allocate Resource

Modified fromchair‟s summof IRDR Conf2011, Beijing



Pressing needs in Asia (2)

Higher governance in DRR• No negligence is allowed once risk becomes known.

• Participatory approach, transparency, accountability,fairness, …

Science and Technology• Science Policy & Policy Science

• Public policy is based on evidence. Policies are onlyas good as the knowledge on which they are based.

Locally Based DRR

• High-tech tools can be useful only when they arecustomized to local context.

• Community driven approaches, „South-South‟

learning.

No action is too costly.

Modified fromchair‟s summof IRDR Conf2011, Beijing



ICHARM‟s Challenge: LocalismDelivering best available knowledge to local practices

Local Practices

IntegratedFlood Analysis

System (IFAS)

Flood risk assessmentunder climate change

Supported by MEXT

Master CourseHazard Mapping Course

River & Dam Course

IFI

WWAP, AWDO

IFNet/GFAS

Sentinel Asia

Flood PreparednessIndicators/Standard

WWF, APWF

The1st PhaseFocus:

Flood-relatedRisk

Management

Education Research

Ph.D. Course

Supported

by JICA

UNSGAB-HLEP

IRDR

UNISDRGP-GAR

Working as a KnowledgeHub on WD through RETA

Supported by ADB



居安思危 Be aware of risk while we are safe

思則有備 Awareness leads us preparedness有備無患 Preparedness leaves us no worry

「春秋」左氏伝

Source： Zuo Qiuming “Zuoshi Commentary”

in Confucius ed. ”Spring and Autumn”, 480BC

ICHARM cares people’s well-beingand empowerment!

www.icharm.pwri.go.jp

ICHARM preparedness for floods

Documents

WLW Day 3: New Dimensions of DRR in Asia by KuniyoshiTakeuchi