WIODWORLD INPUT-OUTPUT DATABASE

construction

Marcel Timmer

Groningen Growth and Development Centre

University of Groningen

(WIOD Conference, Vienna , 26-28 May, 2010)

This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities.

Grant Agreement no: 225 281

This presentation

Why WIOD? GTAP, OECD, IDE, USITC, …..

Construction process in past year

Challenges ahead

Aim: to inform and invite comments

Possible applications

Production and consumption of Greenhouse gas emissions Nakano et al. (2009, OECD), Davis and Caldena (2010, PNAS) Quarter of produced CO2 emissions is not ‘consumed’ in same place OECD net import is about 15-20% of own production China, Russia and Middle East are large net exporters

Trade in value added Series of studies, mostly two regions (US and rest of world) Trade imbalance in value added terms much less than in gross terms Different angle on competitiveness and trade policy effects Link international trade and (wage) inequality within countries

Almost all studies so far are lacking time-series perspectives

WIOD characteristics

Supply and use tables as the basis Time-series benchmarked on National Accounts data Explicit attention for (trade in) services Constant price tables

Satellite accounts (socio-economic and environmental) Based on offical statistics with maximum of transparancy

in calculations

WIOD: Data and Coverage

SUTs and IOTs in current and constant prices Harmonized national supply and use tables (purchasers’ and

basic price) Bilateral trade flows of goods and services Inter-country SUTs Inter-country IO tables

Socio-economic accounts : labour and capital types Environmental accounts : energy, air emissions, natural resources

The tables in the WIOD-database will cover period from 1995 to 2006: 27 EU countries and 13 other major countries 35 industries and 59 products

List of Countries

• EU-27• plus13 non-EU:

- Canada - China

- United States - India

- Brazil - Japan

- Mexico - South Korea

- Turkey - Taiwan

- Russia - Indonesia

- Australia

Structure of national supply and use table

Total

C I G

Total supply by product

Gross value addedTotal input by

industry

Imports

Total use by

product

Domestic final use

Total output by industry

Intermediate useDomestic final

useSupply

product industry

Total

country A Exports

country A

ind

ust

ryp

rod

uct

Intermediate use

Domestic supply

Structure of national supply and use table

Total

C I G

Total

country A Exports

country A

ind

ust

ryp

rod

uct

Intermediate use

Domestic supply

Intermediate useDomestic final

useSupply

product industry

Imports

Total use by

product

Domestic final use

Total output by industry

Total supply by product

Total input by industry

Capital by type

Profit

Energy use (by type)Air emissions

Natural resources

Labour by type

Structure of inter-country SUT for country A

C I Gcountry

Bcountry

C

country B

country C Imports from C

Exports to B

Exports to C

pro

du

ct

country B

country C

Re-exports

Domestic final use of imports

from B

Domestic final use of imports

from C

country Ap

rod

uct

Intermediate use of domestic output

country A

ind

ust

ry

Domestic supply

pro

du

ct

Total use of

domestic output

Domestic final use of domestic

output

Total Use

Supply

product

Exports toIntermediate useDomestic final

use

industry

-

Total use of imports

from B

Total use of imports

from C

Intermediate use of imports from B

Intermediate use of imports from C

-

Re-exports

Gross output

Total supplyGross value added

Imports from B

Structure of inter-country input-output table for the world (industry-by-industry type)

Total output in AGross value added

Total output

in B

Total output

in C

Intermediate use by A of imports from B

Intermediate use by A of imports from C

Intermediate use of domestic output by B

Gross value addedTotal output in B

Gross value added

Total output

in A

Final use of domestic

output by A

Total output

ind

ust

ry

Final use by A of imports from

B

Final use by A of imports from

C

Final domestic use (C, I, G)

Intermediate use by B of imports from A

Final domestic use (C, I, G)

Country A

country B

country C

Intermediate use industry

ind

ust

ry Intermediate use of domestic output by

A

ind

ust

ry

country A

Country ACountry BIntermediate use

industry

Intermediate use by B of imports from C

Country CIntermediate use

industry

Intermediate use by C of imports from A

Intermediate use by C of imports from B

Intermediate use of domestic output by B

Total output in C

Final use by B of imports from

A

Final use of domestic

output by B

Final use by B of imports from

C

Country B

Final use of domestic

output by C

Country CFinal domestic

use (C, I, G)

Final use by C of imports from

A

Final use by C of imports from

B

Differences NAS versus SUT statistics: reasons

National Accounts data is revised over time Revisions of basic data Reclassification of activities Methodological changes Change in classifications

But this is not (always) followed by revisions in (public)

SUT data, in particular outside Europe

Differences NAS versus SUT statistics: value added in some industries, India

1998 2003 2006Food, Beverages and Tobacco -12.8% -27.3% -25.2%Leather, Leather and Footwear -16.1% 6.0% 26.1%Coke, Refined Petroleum etc. -18.2% 31.0% 19.3%Machinery, Nec -15.0% -4.5% 13.4%Electrical and Optical Equipment -53.2% -32.0% -33.9%Total -2.6% -1.0% -1.0%

Past year work done

SUTs time-series (RUG, IPTS, HTWG) Trade in goods and services (WIIW) Inter-country IO tables (RUG, WIIW) Socio-economic accounts (RUG): building upon EU

KLEMS project Environmental accounts (IPTS): building upon EXIOPOL

project

WIOT construction process Public

statistics National accounts Supply and use tablesInternational trade

statistics (time-series) (infrequent) (time-series)

Total Final demand by type Supply (Basic price) Imports and exportsTotal Export/Import Use (Purchasers' price) on bilateral basis

Value added by industry (Input-output table) - of goodsGross output by industry (Valuation matrix) - of services

(Import matrix)

HarmonisationEstimation

Supply (Basic price)Use (Basic price)Valuation matrix

Estimation

Supply (Basic price)Valuation matrix

Domestic use (Basic price)

Estimation

Time series World input-output tables

Bilateral import shares by use

Import use (Basic price) by delivering country

Time series for each country

Time series for each country

For each country

Methodologies

1. Time-series of SUTs at purchasers’ prices Extrapolation and benchmarking of SUTs to National Accounts

statistics: Total Final demand by type Total Export and total Import Value added and gross output by industry

Based on SUT-RAS method (Temurshoev and Timmer 2009)

2. From SUTs at purchasers’ prices to basic prices Construction of margins of wholesale, retail, motor, transport and

net taxes at product level Estimation of valuation matrices based on structure in margins

(e.g. no retail margins on intermediate uses) At later stage offical margin matrices, if available

Methodologies

3. From national to inter-country SUTs Breakdown of Use table into domestic and imported (by

delivering country) Relying on imports from international trade statistics Not simple proportional method, but distinction between

intermediate, consumer and capital goods. This was based on a new classification of HS6-digit products to end-use

In later stage use import tables from NSIs if available

4. From SUTs to inter-country input-output table Technology assumptions Rest of World: exports to RoW is calculated as residual

and can become negative

Methodologies

5. From current price to constant price tables National deflators

Based on industry gross output deflators, and row wise deflation of SUT

At later stage add in more information from national accounts (final demand deflators, intermediate input deflators, import/export deflators)

International deflators (PPPs): World Bank ICP expenditure PPPs adjusted and allocated to industries (for 2005)

Practical implementation

Harmonisation SUTs Industry and product classification FISIM Missing or confidential observations Ad-hoc adjustments for each country

Time series of exports and imports at product level Total Export and total Import from NatAcc (goods and

services seperately if possible) Distribution over products from columns in SUTs Movement between SUT years based on international

trade data trends (at product level) Time-series of changes in inventories Time-series of margins: trade, transportation and net tax

Socio-economic accounts

Data at industry-level that matches SUTs: Employment and wages by skill-level (low/medium/high),and

for OECD also age and gender distinction Investment by industry and type (8 assets, including ICT) Sources:

EU KLEMS database November 2009 release for OECD (www.euklems.org)

wide range of labour, household and capital-surveys for other countries in cooperation with local teams (World KLEMS project)

Concluding remarks

Main innovations in WIOD Timeseries data Methodological improvements (e.g. SUT-RAS; import tables) Based on official data with transparant flow of adjustments Integrated socio-economic and environmental accounts Database will be made public

Including basic data so user can make alternative choices parts of data public in 2011 full data in 2012

Challenges

During project period Constant price tables Trade in services Russia and China accounts Revisions triggered by user feedback

Long-term Upcoming revisions in System of National Accounts and

industrial classifications SEEA and environmental accounts Institutionalize this type of work

Additional material

Columns in Use table

Code NACE Description

1 AtB Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing

2 C Mining and Quarrying

3 15t16 Food, Beverages and Tobacco

4 17t18 Textiles and Textile Products

5 19 Leather, Leather and Footwear

6 20 Wood and Products of Wood and Cork

7 21t22 Pulp, Paper, Paper , Printing and Publishing

8 23 Coke, Refined Petroleum and Nuclear Fuel

9 24 Chemicals and Chemical Products

10 25 Rubber and Plastics

11 26 Other Non-Metallic Mineral

12 27t28 Basic Metals and Fabricated Metal

13 29 Machinery, Nec

14 30t33 Electrical and Optical Equipment

15 34t35 Transport Equipment

16 36t37 Manufacturing, Nec; Recycling

17 E Electricity, Gas and Water Supply

18 F Construction

19 50 Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles Retail Sale of Fuel

20 51 Wholesale Trade and Commission Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles

21 52 Retail Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles ; Repair of Household Goods

22 H Hotels and Restaurants

23 60 Inland Transport

24 61 Water Transport

25 62 Air Transport

26 63 Other Supporting and Auxiliary Transport Activities; Activities of Travel Agencies

27 64 Post and Telecommunications

28 J Financial Intermediation

29 70 Real Estate Activities

30 71t74 Renting of M&Eq and Other Business Activities

31 L Public Admin and Defence; Compulsory Social Security

32 M Education

33 N Health and Social Work

34 O Other Community, Social and Personal Services

35 P Private Households with Employed Persons

36 Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)

37 Total

38 Final consumption expenditure by households

39 Final consumption exp. by non-profit organisations serving households

40 Final consumption expenditure by government

41 Final consumption expenditure

42 Gross fixed capital formation

43 Changes in inventories and valuables

44 Gross capital formation

45 Exports

46 Final uses at purchasers' prices

47 Total use at purchasers' prices

Columns in USE Table

Rows in Use table

(part 1)

Code CPA Description

1 1 Products of agriculture, hunting and related services

2 2 Products of forestry, logging and related services

3 5 Fish and other fishing products; services incidental of fishing

4 10 Coal and lignite; peat

5 11 Crude petroleum and natural gas; services incidental to oil and gas extraction excluding surveying

6 12 Uranium and thorium ores

7 13 Metal ores

8 14 Other mining and quarrying products

9 15 Food products and beverages

10 16 Tobacco products

11 17 Textiles

12 18 Wearing apparel; furs

13 19 Leather and leather products

14 20 Wood and products of wood and cork (except furniture); articles of straw and plaiting materials

15 21 Pulp, paper and paper products

16 22 Printed matter and recorded media

17 23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels

18 24 Chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres

19 25 Rubber and plastic products

20 26 Other non-metallic mineral products

21 27 Basic metals

22 28 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment

23 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c.

24 30 Office machinery and computers

25 31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.

26 32 Radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus

27 33 Medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks

28 34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

29 35 Other transport equipment

30 36 Furniture; other manufactured goods n.e.c.

31 37 Secondary raw materials

32 40 Electrical energy, gas, steam and hot water

33 41 Collected and purified water, distribution services of water

34 45 Construction work

Rows in Use table

(part 2)

35 50 Trade, maintenance and repair services of motor vehicles and motorcycles; retail sale of automotive fuel

36 51 Wholesale trade and commission trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

37 52 Retail trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair services of personal and household goods

38 55 Hotel and restaurant services

39 60 Land transport; transport via pipeline services

40 61 Water transport services

41 62 Air transport services

42 63 Supporting and auxiliary transport services; travel agency services

43 64 Post and telecommunication services

44 65 Financial intermediation services, except insurance and pension funding services

45 66 Insurance and pension funding services, except compulsory social security services

46 67 Services auxiliary to financial intermediation

47 70 Real estate services

48 71 Renting services of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods

49 72 Computer and related services

50 73 Research and development services

51 74 Other business services

52 75 Public administration and defence services; compulsory social security services

53 80 Education services

54 85 Health and social work services

55 90 Sewage and refuse disposal services, sanitation and similar services

56 91 Membership organisation services n.e.c.

57 92 Recreational, cultural and sporting services

58 93 Other services

59 95 Private households with employed persons

60 Total

61 Cif/ fob adjustments on exports

62 Direct purchases abroad by residents

63 Purchases on the domestic territory by non-residents

64 Total intermediate consumption/final use at purchasers' prices

65 Compensation of employees

66 Other net taxes on production

67 Operating surplus, gross

68 Value added at basic prices

69 Output at basic prices

WIOD project: Work Packages

WP1-3: Construction of harmonized supply and use tables, national input-output tables, price deflators, trade flows and intercountry input-output tables

WP4: Construction of environmental satellite accounts (energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, etc.)

WP5: Construction of socio-economic satellite accounts (skill levels, investment, accumulation of intangibles)

WP6: Methodological research WP7-9: Development of new models and

extension/adaptation of models with track record within EC

Who is in WIOD?

University of Groningen (The Netherlands) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Sevilla, Spain) Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (Vienna, Austria) Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim, Germany) Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Vienna, Austria) Konstanz University of Applied Sciences (Germany) The Conference Board Europe (Brussels, Belgium) CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (The Hague, The

Netherlands) Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (Athens, Greece) Central Recherche SA (Paris, France)

* Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (Paris France)

Available WIOD data

Available as of June, 15 (!!!! PRELIMINARY DATA !!!!) Timeseries SUTs, current price (purchasers’ price) Energy use by type and CO2 emissions Other air emissions (EU only) Bilateral trade in goods (not mirrored) and services (BoP codes) Output and employment time-series from Nat Accounts

Available end of August Timeseries SUTs, current price (basic price) Timeseries SUTs, constant price Inter-country SUT and IO tables Other air emissions (all countries) Bilateral trade in goods and services (WIOD codes) Updates and corrections of June 15 database

Deliverables

Deliverable Content

Responsible institute Target Expected Realised

1.2 Nominal SUT RUG 6 146.1 Report IO-types IPTS/HTWG 6 82.2 Bilateral trade WIIW 9 148.1 Report lit review WIIW 9 141.3 Real SUT RUG 12 143.1 Inter-country SUT RUG 12 143.2 Inter-country IO (current) RUG 12 144.2 Environmental indicators IPTS 12 145.1 Update EU KLEMS RUG 12 9 95.2 KL for others RUG 12 146.2 Report IO-compilation IPTS/HTWG 12 147.1 Linking economic and environmental indicatorsZEW 12 13

Delivery date

Deliverables, coming years

Delivery dateDeliverab

le ContentResponsible institute Target

1.4 Real SUT (PPP) RUG 164.3 Indicators for CGE IPTS 168.2 Report factor content WIIW/RUG 169.1 Report suggestions CPB 165.4 Foreign affiliates WIIW 18

6.3a Report IO constant price IPTS/HTWG 186.3b Report IO projection IPTS/HTWG 186.3c Report sensitivity model choice RUG 187.2 Report structural change ZEW 187.4 Improving CGE calibration ZEW/WIFO 188.4 Report trade in intermediates WIIW 183.3 Inter-country IO (real) RUG 213.4 Regional IO RUG 215.3 Intangibles TCB 246.4 Report sensitivity price and aggregationRUG 247.3 Environmental policies ZEW/WIFO 247.5 Report techn change and environmentZEW/WIFO 248.5 Report outsourcing WIIW 249.2 Report GEM ICCS 249.3 Report Nemesis CRSA 249.4 Report World scan CPB 24

Delivery dateDeliverab

le ContentResponsible institute Target

7.6 Model prototype ZEW/WIFO 308.7 Report econometric model WIIW/ WIFO 301.5 All SUT final RUG 362.3 Final bilateral trade WIIW 363.5 Final IO RUG 364.4 Final data IPTS 364.5 Technical report IPTS 365.5 Final socio-economic RUG 368.3 Report factor content (final) WIIW/RUG 368.6 Report outsourcing (final) WIIW 368.8 Report econometric model WIIW/ WIFO 36

9.5+9.9 Model + report GEM ICCS 369.6+9.10 Model + report Nemesis CRSA 369.7+9.11 Model + report Worldscan CPB 369.8+9.12 Model + report PACE ZEW 36