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Whats in Store for the

Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Markets in 2012?

Subramanya Bettadapura, DirectorEnergy and Power Systems

9/12/2011


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Executive SummaryCEOs Perspective

2Exploration & Production capitalspending to increase in 2012

3Deepwater market to see increasedactivity in 2012

4LNG imports to Southeast Asia set toincrease

5Asia refining capacity additions in 2012double of 2011 levels

1Average oil prices (Brent crude)forecast to be above $ 90 in 2012

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.


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Opportunities Highlights


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Highlights: Southeast Asia Upstream Sector

Growth Potential 2012

0

1

2 3

4

5

4.5

1-2 Years 3-6 Years7-10

YearsHighGrowth

MediumGrowth

LowGrowth

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

AnticipatedInvestments

E&P Capital

Expenditure, Southeast

Asia (2012): $38.7

billion

Growth Rate in2012

10.6%

AttractiveCountries

Malaysia Indonesia

Segments toWatch

Deepwater Enhanced Oil

Recovery (EOR) Marginal Fields

Stable IncreasingDecreasing


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Highlights: Malaysia and Indonesia Upstream Sector

Stable IncreasingDecreasing

AnticipatedInvestments

E&P Expenditure,

Indonesia (2012): ~ $21billion

Growth Rate in2012

23.5%

Segments to Watch

Deepwater Projects

IndonesiaUpstream Sector

Anticipated

Investments

E&P Expenditure,

Malaysia (2012): ~ $15

billion

Growth Rate in

2012

16.6%

Segments to Watch

Deepwater Projects Enhanced OilRecovery (EOR)

Marginal Fields

MalaysiaUpstream Sector


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OUTLOOK EXPLAINED


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Brent crude average price to remain upwards of $90 ,

even in weak economy

Oil Prices

Oil Price Outlook

The wide range forecast for Brent crude in

2012 is $90 - $115 per barrel (annualaverage)

Even if the global economy contracts by 1%,

Brent crude to average over $90

Demand for petroleum products from China

and India expected to remain strong therebyincreasing the average oil price to $ 115

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

72.5

96.8

61.5

79.5

111.

7105

Brent Crude, Spot Prices (Annual Average)

$/Barrel


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Some independent E&P

companies in North America

have indicated that they may

spend less in 2012 compared

to 2011

Increased spending in Middle

East and South America

Increased spending in Asia

Pacific, specifically in

Southeast Asia

F&S forecasts the global E&P

capital spending to increase

to $545 billion.

Global E&P capital spending to increase in 2012 to $545

billion

E&P Capital

Spending

Global E&P Capital Spending Outlook

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (e) 2012 (e)

$Bn

490 545442395454400

GrowthRate

Source: Barclays Capital E&P Spending Survey; Frost & Sullivan estimates for 2012

11.2%10.9%11.9%

13.5%

(13.0)%


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New areas being explored

Exploration and development

of deepwater blocks

Rejuvenation of mature fields especially in Indonesia and

Malaysia

Development of marginal

fields in Malaysia and

Indonesia

Increased complexity of

projects driving up costs

E&P capital spending in Southeast Asia to be around $

38.7billionE&P Capital

Spending

Southeast Asia Capital Spending Outlook

Source: Frost & Sullivan estimates based on annual reports of E&P companies and NOCs

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (e) 2012 (e)

$Bn

GrowthRate

19.9

22.6

25.1

29.8

35.0

38.713.7% 11.1%

18.6% 17.2

%

10.6%


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Concerns about tightening supply of

high specification rigs led to the

swelling of orders in 2010

Though there are indications of

oversupply globally, rig demand,

especially for high spec rigs, is

expected to increase in 2012

High-end Jack-up utilization is over

75% in Southeast Asia

Rigs operating in Southeast Asia are

currently posting dayrates that

exceed the global average for jackups

The outlook for high end Jack-ups

and Drillships looks good as dayrates

and utilization rates improve

A record number of rigs that were ordered in 2010 will

enter the fleet beginning mid-2012

Offshore Rigs

Orders

Southeast Asia Offshore Rigs Outlook

Source: Compiled by Frost & Sullivan

42

4

5

1

0 10 20 30 40 50

Jackup

Tender

Semisub

Drillship

Rigs under Construction in the SoutheastAsian Region

End of 2010 End of 2011(e)

End of 2012(e)

Global Jack-upFleet

356 380 395

Drivers for Rig Construction

To upgrade to High Spec Rigs for Enhanced Technical Capabilities Higher Operational and Safety

Standards


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Australia to add the largest LNG liquefaction capacity

during 2012 to 2016

LNG Imports to the Asia Pacific Region Set to Increase

Further in 2012LNG Imports

Asia Pacific LNG Re-gasification Sector Outlook

Source: Compiled by Frost & Sullivan

Location : Jakarta Bay, West Java, IndonesiaStart up : 2012Capacity : 3 MTPA

Location : Melaka, MalaysiaStart up : 2012Capacity : 3.8 MTPA

Location : Map Ta Phut, ThailandStart up : Phase 1, 2011Capacity : 5.0 MTPA

Location : Kochi, India

Start up : 2012Capacity : 5.0 MTPA

Location : Dabhol, IndiaStart up : 2011Capacity : 1.2 MMTPA

Location : Jurong Island, SingaporeStart up : 2013Capacity : 3 MTPA

LNG Exports

LNG Re-gasification Terminals ongoing projects;Commission period during Q3, 2011-2013

Location : Zhuhai, ChinaStart up : Phase 1, 2013Capacity : 3.5 MTPA

Location : Jieyang, ChinaStart up : ~ 2012/2013Capacity : 2.0 MTPA


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26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

2009 2010 2011E 2012E

Asian refining capacity to increase by 850,000 barrels per

day in 2012 compared to 400,000 barrels per day in 2011

Refining

Capacity

Asia Pacific Refining Capacity Outlook

BP Statistical Review, F&S Forecast

28.4

28.8

29.6

27.6MillionBarrels/Day

Asia Pacific Refining Capacity

A major portion of the capacity addition

investment is by NOCs

China is expected to add 600,000

barrels per day refining capacity in 2012

China and India adding refinery capacity

in a bid to become self-sufficient

India to become the second largest

refiner in Asia overtaking Japan

With refining capacity projected to

increase by 3.1% and demand in major

export markets projected to stay flat in

2012, margins are expected to be under

pressure


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For Additional Information

Donna Jeremiah

Corporate Communications

Asia Pacific

+603 6204 5832

[email protected]

Carrie Low

Corporate Communications

Asia Pacific

+603 6204 5910

[email protected]

Subramanya Bettadapura

DirectorEnergy & Power Systems

[email protected]

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