‘‘WHAT IF ..…?’WHAT IF ..…?’

MANAGING THE RISKS THAT MANAGING THE RISKS THAT COME WITH HAVING TO MAKE COME WITH HAVING TO MAKE

DECISIONSDECISIONS

Gp Capt Andy Ebdon RAF

JAGUAR – LOW LEVEL IN SCOTLAND

A Loose Article A Loose Article in the Aircraft - in the Aircraft - Ground Cooling Ground Cooling Door Actuator Door Actuator Clevis PinClevis Pin

DECISIONDECISION

Can it fly? The rules say not, but……Can it fly? The rules say not, but……

Risk - Consequence – PressureRisk - Consequence – Pressure

How does a Human decide?How does a Human decide?

SO WHAT IS RISK AGAIN?SO WHAT IS RISK AGAIN?

ConsequenceConsequence– LivesLives– InjuriesInjuries– Loss of propertyLoss of property– CostCost– ReputationReputation

ProbabilityProbability Risk Generation in Human Terms?Risk Generation in Human Terms?

THE HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE THE HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE PROGRAMMEPROGRAMME

HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE SUCCESSFUL PROJECT MANAGEMENTSUCCESSFUL PROJECT MANAGEMENT Robust, sophisticated approach to Project Robust, sophisticated approach to Project Management RiskManagement Risk

Partnered working – Shared RisksPartnered working – Shared Risks

But ……… Vulnerable to Human FrailtyBut ……… Vulnerable to Human Frailty

Losing control – and knowing itLosing control – and knowing it

Finding out whyFinding out why

A simple fixA simple fix

GETTING AHEAD OF THE GETTING AHEAD OF THE PROBLEMPROBLEM

Principles not difficultPrinciples not difficult– What could go wrong?What could go wrong?– What could be the impact?What could be the impact?– How likely is it?How likely is it?

But in terms of Decision Making how do you But in terms of Decision Making how do you know what decisions you might have to know what decisions you might have to make, what the options could be and which make, what the options could be and which choices would be in error?choices would be in error?

Just what are the risks?Just what are the risks?

IDENTIFYING RISK – IS IT REALLY IDENTIFYING RISK – IS IT REALLY THAT DIFFICULT?THAT DIFFICULT?

Research into Impact of Supervision on Human Error in Aircraft Research into Impact of Supervision on Human Error in Aircraft MaintenanceMaintenance

Expert Practitioners very keen to talk about risksExpert Practitioners very keen to talk about risks

Management PressuresManagement Pressures

Policy ChangesPolicy Changes

DistractionsDistractions

Night work (Fatigue!)Night work (Fatigue!)

Personal CharacteristicsPersonal Characteristics

Time PressuresTime Pressures

But these aren’t risks!But these aren’t risks!

SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT COULD BE DONECOULD BE DONE

A 3 Stage ProcessA 3 Stage Process– TrainingTraining

– Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

– PracticePractice

Focussed on Decision MakingFocussed on Decision Making As Objective as PossibleAs Objective as Possible

TRAININGTRAINING

Aim at those likely to be called upon to Aim at those likely to be called upon to

make the most significant decisions.make the most significant decisions.

The Nature of Human Error.The Nature of Human Error.

Influencing Factors – in the local context.Influencing Factors – in the local context.

Decision Making.Decision Making.

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT By Expert Practitioners – the Deciders.By Expert Practitioners – the Deciders.

– Individually first, then as groups.Individually first, then as groups. Start with Undesirable Outcomes – not Influencing Start with Undesirable Outcomes – not Influencing

Factors.Factors. Set Parameters for Consequences and Probability.Set Parameters for Consequences and Probability. Consider Consequences.Consider Consequences. Consider Probability – how Vulnerable to Consider Probability – how Vulnerable to

Influencing Factors?Influencing Factors? Grade the Risks.Grade the Risks.

PRACTICEPRACTICE

Business Continuity Planning from a Human Business Continuity Planning from a Human Perspective.Perspective.

Disaster Exercises.Disaster Exercises. ‘‘War Gaming’ and the ‘Command Post War Gaming’ and the ‘Command Post

Exercise.’Exercise.’

Hope for the Best – but Prepare for the Worst!

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?