Welcome to the ENVS 295 Climate Webinar

April 2, 2013Phil Rice

System Dynamics Modeling and Deutero-Learning

I never thought I’d end up with a career in modeling…

Session 1 The Climate System and the

Human System• “This is who we are and this is what we do.”• We live on a planet that has a climate. The

climate undergoes variations caused by “events” that the planet experiences.

• “System” thinking can, and has, helped us live in and cope with the systems in which we dwell.

• Who is the audience? How do they learn?

The Task Before Us….

“Systems strongly resist changes in their information flows, most especially in their rules and goals. An existing system can constrain almost entirely the attempts of an individual to operate by different rules or to obtain different goals than those sanctioned by the system. However, only individuals, by perceiving the need for new information, rules, and goals, communicating about them, and trying them out, can make the changes that transform systems.” Dana Meadows et al., Beyond the Limits

Changing Mindsets

Every nation and every person instantly surround themselves

with a material apparatus which exactly corresponds to their

moral state, or their state of thought. Observe how every truth

and every error, each a thought of someone's mind, clothes

itself with societies, houses, cities, language, ceremonies,

newspapers. Observe the ideas of the present day ... see how

each of these abstractions has embodied itself in an imposing

apparatus in the community; and how timber, brick, lime and

stone have flown into convenient shape, obedient to the

master idea reigning in the minds of many persons... It follows

of course that the least change in a person will change their

circumstances...—Ralph Waldo Emerson

Habit and its discontents

“…habit is a major economy of conscious thought

… The very economy of trial and error which is

achieved by habit formation is only possible

because habits are comparatively ‘hard

programmed.’ The economy consists precisely in

not reexamining or rediscovering the premises of

the habit every time the habit is used.”Gregory Bateson

Steps to an Ecology of Mind, 1978

Habit and its discontents

“…mental model formation is a major economy of

conscious thought … The very economy of trial and

error which is achieved by mental model formation is

only possible because mental models are comparatively

‘hard programmed.’ The economy consists precisely in

not reexamining or rediscovering the premises of the

mental model every time the mental model is used.”

Modifed from Gregory Bateson Steps to an Ecology of Mind, 1978

Mental Model

Formation

Theory Break -- Mental Models in Action

• What do you see?

“Kaniza Triangle” (see Science, 256, 12 June 1992, p.1520-21.)

Mental Models in Action

“Say... What’s a mountain goat doing way up here in a cloud bank?”

It’s Almost Impossible to Communicate Across a Paradigm

A father said to his double-seeing son, “Son, you see two instead of one.”

“How can that be!” the boy replied. “If I were, there would seem to be four moons up there in place of two.”

source: Idries Shah, Tales of the Dervishes

Magnitude of the Change

Can we move nations and people in the direction of sustainability? Such a move would be a modification of society comparable in scale to only two other changes: the Agricultural Revolution of the late Neolithic and the Industrial Revolution of the past two centuries. These revolutions were gradual, spontaneous, and largely unconscious. This one will have to be a fully conscious operation, guided by the best foresight that science can provide… If we actually do it, the undertaking will be absolutely unique in humanity's stay on earth.

—William D. Ruckelshaus

“Quote Break” -- There Are Really No Side Effects…

“We frequently talk about side effects as if they were a feature of reality. Not so. In reality, there are no side effects; there are just effects. When we take action, there are various effects. The effects we thought of in advance, or were beneficial, we call the main, or intended effects. The effects we didn't anticipate, the effects which fed back to undercut our policy, the effects which harmed the system-these are the ones we claim to be side effects. Side effects are not a feature of reality but a sign that our understanding of the system is narrow and flawed.”

-- John Sterman, Business Dynamics, p. 11

Sustainability Institute © 2005 16

• text to help facilitator

Events

Patternsof Behavior

SystemicStructure

Mind-sets

The Iceberg – A Metaphor for the Level at Which We Interact With a System

Depth of Interaction

Sustainability Institute © 2005 17

Events

Patternsof Behavior

SystemicStructure

Mind-sets

The Deeper the Level of Interaction With the System, the Greater the Leverage of Interaction

Increasing Leverage

Sustainability Institute © 2005 18

Events

Patternsof Behavior

SystemicStructure

Mind-sets

The Iceberg – The System Level Determines the Kind of Interaction Possible

REACT TO

ADAPT TO

CREATE

TRANSFORM

Our Minds Don’t Match Our World• Our mental “hardware” was shaped to deal with

the world of a small tribe of wandering gatherers.

• Our mental “hardware” will not change biologically in time to solve our problems.

• To retrain ourselves requires a shift in our normal way of perceiving ourselves and our environment. We need to become better at:

– responding to “slow” changes– responding to conditions our native senses

cannot detect– accounting for the effects of complex chains of

cause and effect

What’s the goal?• Our global intention for controlling greenhouse gases:

• Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) asserts the objective of achieving “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

• The European Union has articulated a goal of limiting temperature increase to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures.

• James Hansen and co-authors argued that slow climate processes augment climate sensitivity and that 350 ppm of atmospheric CO2 represents a target humanity must meet if we wish “to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted.”

CO2 in the atmosphere

Global Temperature increase

CO2 in the atmosphere

based on paleoclimate

record

About Carbon and Climate

26

CO2 was converted by plants and sequestered in the Earth’s crust

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

27

Now

300 years ago - 280ppm

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

280 ppm

28

Today - 394 ppm

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

394 ppm

29

More CO2 leads to higher temperatures

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

Temperature

increases of 1.4°F

394 ppm

30

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

Temperature

Higher temperatures have important impacts

Impact

394 ppm

increases of 1.4°F

•Humanitarian disasters•Thawing at poles•Ecosystem disruption•Rising sea levels

31© 2011 Climate Interactive

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

Temperature

Delays in the influence of CO2 on temperature and impacts

influence of CO2 on temperature:1/3 in several years1/2 in 25 years3/4 in 250 yearsfull in 1000’s of years

394 ppm

increases of 1.4°F

Impact

•Humanitarian disasters•Thawing at poles•Ecosystem disruption•Rising sea levels

Long lifetime of CO2

Nature Reports Climate Change Published online:Carbon is forever 20 November 2008 | doi:10.1038/climate.2008.122

34© 2008 Sustainability Institute

Carbon in forests and

soils

Carbon in oceanwater

Carbon in the air

Carbon inthe ground

Temperature

We won't feel the full impact of CO2 produced today 1000 years

394 ppm

increases of 1.4°F +

1.1°F in the pipeline

influence of CO2 on temperature:1/3 in several years1/2 in 25 years3/4 in 250 yearsfull in 1000’s of years

Impact

•?•?•?•?

C-Learn web version

Climate momentum

flash

Tipping Point Lenton et al.2°C

Weather vs. Climate

C-ROADSClimate Rapid Overview And Decision Support

TempSea

Level rise

Specific country

emissionsCarbon

cycle

Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions

(Global, 6, or 15 blocs)

Net CO2 emissions from forestsDeforestation

Afforestation Forests

GHGs in atm

Climate

Other GHG cycles

User Input

User InputOther GHGemissions

(CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6, and HFCs)

Climate Scoreboard

Climate Pathways iPhone/iPad app

What’s the goal?• Our global intention for controlling greenhouse gases:

• Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) asserts the objective of achieving “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

• The European Union has articulated a goal of limiting temperature increase to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures.

• James Hansen and co-authors argued that slow climate processes augment climate sensitivity and that 350 ppm of atmospheric CO2 represents a target humanity must meet if we wish “to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted.”

CO2 in the atmosphere

Global Temperature increase

CO2 in the atmosphere

based on paleoclimate

record

Explore using C-LearnUsing C-Learn (http://www.climateinteractive.org/simulations/c-learn/simulation), demonstrate using two sets of experiments 1) the effect of delay of emissions reductions on global average temperature in 2100 and 2) the effect of the magnitude of the CO2 emissions reductions if they were all started in 2020.

For these experiments, apply the same settings to each bloc of countries, effectively using C-Learn in a "global" mode for demonstration purposes.

For both sets of experiments, include the business as usual run as a reference and 4 experimental runs. Produce comparative graphs showing CO2 emissions, CO2 in the atmosphere, temperature and sea level rise.

For experiment #2, for each experimental run in the set, include the graph showing Emissions and Removals.

What can you conclude from your experiments?