Världens eko · 2016. 4. 2. · Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04 Världens eko Carl Folke ... a success story? Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04

2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre

Världens eko

Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien



Biosfär formad av människan

“Welcome to the Anthropocene Humans have changed the way the world works. Now they have to change the way they think about it, too

Humans have become a force of nature reshaping the planet on a geological scale—but at a far-faster-than-geological speed.”

May 28th, 2011

Reconnecting to the Biosphere


Perspektivet • Alltmer integrerade

ekonomier och samhällen

• Den levande resursbasen fundamentet för integreringen

• Miljöfrågor handlar om vår egen utveckling

säkerställa och möjliggöra en progressiv samhällsutveckling

2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre De

Deutsch et al. 2007. Global Environmental Change 17:238-249

Fishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand

Urbanisation, globalisation and seafood production


Hela jorden är sammanbunden i ett system – ekologiskt, socialt, politiskt och ekonomiskt


florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho...

> 50% bor i urbana områden

Många har tappat kontakten med naturen



Ekosystemen levererar tjänster

Städer i Östersjöregionen 250 000 invånare


Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem services – the benefits people obtain from

ecosystems

www.MAweb.org

http://www.maweb.org/en/PartnerInstitutions.aspx�

Ekosystemtjänster (inkl. matproduktion), beror av människans förmåga att samarbeta med

biosfären och stärka resiliensen

Carbon sinks Freshwater generation

Seafood production

Storm buffering

Pollination Grazing


Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?


1900 1950

1975 1999

Stocks of predatory fish (cod, tuna, flatfish).

Source: Christensen et al. 2003, Fish and Fisheries

Figure 11


Lobster aquaculture and juicy dinners……… a gilded trap?

Rhode Island – 72% loss from shell disease


Food production must be based more on biodiversity and ecosystem services

than monocultures and fossil fuels

Rebuilding in harmony with nature


Tipping points


Critical transitions and regime shifts


Låg resiliens – plötsliga brytpunkter


Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, 2037-2040.

Green Sahara

2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Science Director

2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Science Director Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, 2037-2040.


Interactions – global markets, land use, disturbance,

regional tipping and climate

the case of the Borneo rainforests, and the weather event El Niño



Turning El Niño from creator to destroyer

e.g. Curran et al. 200. Science; Page et al. 2002. Nature

1997 fires - 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Borneo_fires_October_2006.jpg�

2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre After Schellnhuber 2002

Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System


Aborigines arrive in Australia

Beginning of agriculture

Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman

Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

First migration of fully modern humans

out of Africa

Migrations of fully modern humans

from South Asia to Europe


The Resilience of the Earth System


Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Ozone depletion

Global Freshwater Use

Rate of Biodiversity

Loss

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

Changes in land use

Chemical Pollution

Planetary Boundaries

Rate of N input to the biosphere, P-inflow to Oceans


A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY

to stay away from global tipping points


Resiliens Vända kris till

möjlighet

Förmåga att klara av oväntad förändring och kunna vidareutvecklas


Brist på resiliens – överraskningar



Resilience – turning crisis into opportunities

1. Buffra förändring

2. Aktiv anpassing

3. Transformering


Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?

Goulburn-Broken agriculture

• Economically lucrative - thriving

• Dryland cropping, grazing, irrigated dairy and fruit production, connecting the region to global markets - one quarter of the State of Victoria's export earnings

• Thresholds with possible knock-on effects between them

• widespread clearing of native vegetation and high levels of water use for irrigation have resulted in rising water tables, with severe salinization problems

• Breaking the agricultural path transform, requires changing deep values and creating a new identity

Walker et al. 2009. E&S


Transformation for building social-ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system

• Crisis - Shifting perspective

• From separate parts to an integrated whole

• Active transformation of governance

Olsson, Folke, Hughes, 2008. PNAS


Navigating the transition to ecosystem-based management of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

• Making organizational changes

• Bridging science and policy

• Changing people’s perceptions

• Facilitating community participation and public consultation

• Gaining state and national political support

• Incorporating an understanding of ecosystem dynamics into the governance system to build capacity for managing ecosystem services

Enabling conditions, strategies and leadership for:

Olsson, Folke, Hughes 2008. PNAS


From Open Access to Ecosystem Stewardship of coastal marine resources in Chile --

Transforming governance

3. The “Window of Opportunity”

Stefan Gelcich et al. (2010) PNAS 107:16794-9

It is during the period of crisis or surprise that institutions and connections between them are most open to dramatic transformation.


Transformation of SES

Preparing the system for change

Navigating the transition

Building resilience of the new direction

Window of opportunity

Chile’s coastal resources Sweden’s urban landscapes Australia’s Great Barrier Reef


Active stewardship of Earth’s life-support Systems

Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden

Real world examples of social-ecological systems providing new insights for governance of ecosystem services Serve as ’pockets of resilience’ in landscapes and seascapes in times of global environmental change

Olsson et al. 2005. Ecology & Society Schultz et al. in press. World Development


Actor groups that take part in navigating transitions and help develop and retain a social/collective memory of

ecosystem management in the face of change

• Leaders, stewards, brookers, middlemen

• Knowledge carriers and retainers

• Interpreters and sense makers

• Networkers and facilitaters

• Visionaries and inspirers • Innovators and

experimenters • Followers and reinforcers


Bridging organizations • Performing essential functions in

crafting effective responses to change in social-ecological systems

• Linking groups, networks and organizations across levels, creating the right links, at the right time, around the right issues

• Accessing and combining multiple sources of knowledge and interests

• Enhancing vertical and horizontal integration and social learning

Bridging organization

Folke et al. 2005, Hahn et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007


Skifte i perspektiv

• Värdefråga – Ödesfråga

• Bevara – Utveckla

• Minska trycket – Aktivt sköta

• Reglera o styra - Samförvalta




The Resilience Lens provides new, often surprising insights


Documents

Världens eko · 2016. 4. 2. · Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04 Världens eko Carl Folke ... a success story? Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04