Folke Günther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ruralisation Will ecology show a pathway to sustainability?

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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ruralisation Will ecology show a pathway to sustainability?
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Part I The donts Rules for sustainability
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Rules for sustainability 1.You can not be dependent on storages
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Why is that? A society that is dependent on a storage will not survive longer than the storage Typical examples of storage dependency: Fossil energy Phosphorus
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ultimately found Used Fossil energy
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Different utilization modes of remaining resources: Rule: You can not use what is not found A: The Bush/Cheney mode (Same amount) (Estimated amount) B: Unprobable mode (Estimated amount) (Same amount) C: Probable mode (Estimated amount) (Same amount) Efforts to increase or delay the peak vill make the downsloap steeper
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Liquid fossil fuels, actual and forecasted production, the Peak 1% annual increase in demand We are here 6,300 nuclear reactors to fill the gap 2031: 520 new per year IEA: 1.6%
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Other storages that support our society Plant nutrients ! Why plant nutrients ? Without plant nutrients, no food !
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ The constituents of an animal (or vegetable) body: H O C N S P Na K Ca 64 P HOCNS Na K Ca 64 With gaseous phases can be transported by the air Without gaseous phases must be transported as solids or liquids More common in the Earth crust than in the body Nutrients phosphorus is the most important nutrient ! P 10 times more common in the body than in the Earth crust
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Nutrients Will energy price affect phosphorus availability? phosphorus is the most important nutrient P
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Extraction horizons of phosphorus At higher energy price: ?? years 100 150 years At current energy price:
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Will phosphorus availability constrain the population? This problem was encountered by the first terrestrial ecosystems, 400 million years ago They found a solution: Recycling of phosphorus!
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ancient newspaper, found in the Devon Carbon geosynclinal in SW England
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Part II The musts Rules for sustainability
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ 2.To survive, you must have a supportive function on your support system
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Cell Assume you are a cell (subsystem) in a body (supersystem) Body
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Cell The cell receives a lot of free and beneficial services from the body Body A nice temperature: 37 Good pH: 7,4 Sugar for nutrition Oxygen Waste removal sevices
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ To keep all these services, the cell ( the subsystem ) can only behave in three fundamentally different ways towards the body ( the supersystem )
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Cell Body + Positive influence Negative influence 0 No influence at all 1 2 3
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ The cell has a negative influence on its supersystem. It will, for example, develop a cancer Survival strategy 1
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Cell Body By that, the body will be less able to deliver its free services - - As a survival strategy for the cell, it sucks Either, the macrophages will find the cancer cell and destroy it Or, the body will die Survival strategy 1: The subsystem has a negative influence on the supersystem
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ The cell is perfectly neutral towards its supersystem It doesnt cause any harm, neither it does anything that is useful to the body Survival strategy 2
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Cell Body The capacity of the body to deliver its free services is not affected by the actions of the cell As a survival strategy for the cell, it is, at least, risky! The cell is invisible to the body What will happen if there is a tidying-up drive ? Survival strategy 2, no harm, no use 0 The cell might be eliminated, but this will not affect the body
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ The cell does something (little) that makes it useful to the body Survival strategy 3, better to be there This makes it easier for the body to deliver services to the cell
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Cell Body By that, the body will have an increased ability to deliver its free services + This is the only reliable survival strategy for the cell The cell fulfils some function that makes the body more able Therefore, it is somewhat better for the body that the cell is there, than not + + Survival strategy 3, better to be there
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ This goes for any subsystem Survival strategy 3, better to be there For example humans in an ecosystem !
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ What is good for an ecosystem?
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ecosystem dynamics A crasch course Interlude
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ecosystem Exergy consuming processes, life Ecosystems, like all self-organizing processes, thrive on energy with high exergy content Sunlight with high exergy content Low temperature radiation with low exergy content The life processes consume exergy The energy with consumed exergy content must be expelled, otherwise the system will choke
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ The driving force is a corollary of the Second Law This is reflected by the spontaneous change of ecosystem; their maturation processes
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Ecosystem maturation A v a i l a b l e s o l a r e x e r g y Immature system Low diversity Annual plants Competition Parasitism Nutrient leakage Export Fast change Water export by drainage Mature system High diversity Perennial plants Co-operation Mutualism Nutrient circulation On-site consumption Slow change Water export by evaporation All these changes increase the exergy consumption capacity of the ecosystem Maturation
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ PO 4 DN A Urin e Consumption Recycling Reconstruction The regenerative cycle, basic for living systems ecosystem level:
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ PO 4 DN A Urin e Consumption Recycling Reconstruction The regenerative cycle at ecosystem level, summing up: High exergy Low exergy
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ This is typical for a natural ecosystem
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ In fossil fuel powered systems, the general ecosystem principles are seldom enforced which leads to devastating faults
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ Hampered Effluent Accumulation Process HEAP The HEAP trap
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant www.holon.se/folke/ PO 4 Agriculture PO 4 Food Urin e PO 4 Urin e PO 4 Food City Mining industry PO 4 Long-range transportation makes recycling practically impossible
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  • Folke Gnther folke@holon.se Holon Ecosystem Consultant