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U.S. Population Trends:
2000 to 2060
Stephanie EwertPopulation Division
NCSL Fiscal Analysts SeminarOctober 15, 2015
Overview
Trends in U.S. population growth, aging, and diversity
2000 to 2010
2013 to 2060
2
3
281.4 285.0 287.6 290.1 292.8 295.5 298.4 301.2 304.1 306.8 308.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
U.S. Population: 2000 to 2010
Note: Data for 2000 and 2010 reflect census counts as of April 1. Data for all other years are for July 1.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 to 2010 Intercensal Population Estimates.
The U.S. population increased by 27.3 million, or 9.7 percent, between 2000 and 2010.
4
19.2
53.1
27.1
85.0
62.0
35.0
20.2
54.0
30.7
82.1 81.5
40.3
Under 5 5 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and over
2000 2010
U.S. Population by Age Group: 2000 and 2010(Numbers in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses.
5
5.3
1.6
13.0
-3.4
31.5
15.1
Under 5 5 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and over
Percent Change in U.S. Population by Age Group: 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses.
6
6.8
18.9
9.6
30.2
22.0
12.4
6.5
17.5
9.9
26.6 26.4
13.0
Under 5 5 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and over
2000 2010
Distribution of the U.S. Population by Age Group: 2000 and 2010(Percent of total population)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses.
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36.3%
16.3%
1.9%
0.2%
0.2%
4.7%
0.7%
12.2%
63.7%White alone, Not Hispanic
(196.8m)
Black alone, Not Hispanic(37.7m)
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Not Hispanic (2.2m)
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone,
Not Hispanic (0.5m)
Asian alone, Not Hispanic (14.5m)
Some Other Race alone,Not Hispanic (0.6m)
Two or More Races,Not Hispanic (6.0m)
Hispanic or Latino(of any race) (50.5m)
Minority Population
(111.9m)
Note: Minority refers to people who reported their ethnicity
and race as something other than non-Hispanic White alone
in the 2010 Census. Source: 2010 Census
2010 Census Race, Hispanic Origin, Minority Distribution:All Ages
8
46.5%
23.1%
3.8%
0.3%
0.2%
4.3%
0.9%
14.0%
53.5%White alone, Not Hispanic
(39.7m)
Black alone, Not Hispanic(10.4m)
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Not Hispanic (0.6m)
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone,
Not Hispanic (0.1m)
Asian alone, Not Hispanic (3.2m)
Some Other Race alone,Not Hispanic (0.2m)
Two or More Races,Not Hispanic (2.8m)
Hispanic or Latino(of any race) (17.1m)
Minority Population(34.5m)
2010 Census Race, Hispanic Origin, Minority Distribution:Population Under Age 18
Note: Minority refers to people who reported their ethnicity
and race as something other than non-Hispanic White alone
in the 2010 Census. Source: 2010 Census
9
10
West 47.2%
Midwest 22.2%
Northeast 31.3%
South 40.0%
11
12
13
14
15
28.8%
43.0%
29.6%29.2%
36.2%
42.9%
8.6%11.0%
1.2%
9.7%
Whitealone,
Not Hispanic(+2.3m)
Blackalone,
Not Hispanic(+3.7m)
AmericanIndian
andAlaska Nativealone,
Not Hispanic(+0.2m)
NativeHawaiianand Other
Pacific Islanderalone,
Not Hispanic(+0.1m)
Asianalone,
NotHispanic(+4.3m)
SomeOtherRace
alone,Not Hispanic
(+0.1m)
TotalPopulation(+27.3m)
Two orMoreRaces,
Not Hispanic(+1.4m)
Hispanicor Latino
(of any race)(+15.2m)
MinorityPopulation(+25.1m)
Source: 2010 Census
and Census 2000
Note: Minority refers to people who reported
their ethnicity and race as something other than
non-Hispanic White alone in the 2010 Census.
Percent Change 2000 to 2010:All Ages
16
21.9%
38.8%
46.3%
16.1%
23.8%
31.2%
-5.6%-2.3%
-9.8%
2.6%
Whitealone,
NotHispanic(-4.3m)
Blackalone,
NotHispanic(-0.2m)
AmericanIndian
andAlaska Nativealone,
Not Hispanic(-0.04m)
NativeHawaiianand Other
Pacific Islanderalone,
Not Hispanic(+0.03m)
Asianalone,
NotHispanic(+0.8m)
SomeOtherRace
alone,Not Hispanic
(+0.03m)
TotalPopulation
(+1.9m)
Two orMoreRaces,
Not Hispanic(+0.9m)
Hispanicor Latino
(of any race)(+4.8m)
MinorityPopulation
(+6.2m)
Source: 2010 Census
and Census 2000
Note: Minority refers to people who reported
their ethnicity and race as something other than
non-Hispanic White alone in the 2010 Census.
Percent Change 2000 to 2010:Population Under Age 18
17
18
19
20
21
22
Future Trends
23
24Light blue columns represent population estimates for 1990-2011.
420
250
282309
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
United States Population: 1990 to 2060
The population is projected to increase from 316 million in 2013 to
420 million in 2060, reaching 400 million in 2051. 400
Numbers (in millions)
25
108 7
6 5
15
38
30
10
5
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050
Total population 65 and over
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade: 2000-2010 to 2040-2050
26
21
22
23
34
35
36
24
23
26
21
20
14
2050
2030
2012
Under 18 18 to 44 45 to 64 65 and over
Distribution of the Population by Age Group: 1965 to 2050
27
43
56
73
8084
1417
20 21 21
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions)
Percent of total population
Population Aged 65 and Over: 2012 to 2050
28
45
53
56
34
35
31
21
12
14
2050
2030
2012
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group: 2012 to 2050
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Mill
ion
s
Under 18 years 65 years and over
Population Under 18 Years and 65 Years and Over: 2010 to 2060
Population (in millions)
The population 65 years and over is projected to become
larger than the population under 18 years in 2056.
30
42 41 38 38 39 38 37 37
20 2021
2835 37 36 39
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
Total dependency = ((Population under age 18 + Population aged 65 years and over) / (Population aged 18 to 64 years)) * 100. Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 years and over / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100. Youth dependency = (Population under age 18 / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100.
Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1990 to 2060
6266
75 75 7476
6159
31
138.2
226.9
79.1
105.7
26.2
41.5
-9.5
32.9
Hispanic(of any race)
Two orMore Races,Not Hispanic
NHPI alone,Not Hispanic
Asian alone,Not Hispanic
AIAN alone,Not Hispanic
Black alone,Not Hispanic
White alone,Not Hispanic
Total
Percent Change in Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2013 to 2060
AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
32
30.6
4.8
0.2
7.9
0.7
13.2
42.6
17.1
2.0
0.2
5.1
0.7
12.4
62.6
Hispanic(of any race)
Two orMore Races,Not Hispanic
NHPI alone,Not Hispanic
Asian alone,Not Hispanic
AIAN alone,Not Hispanic
Black alone,Not Hispanic
White alone,Not Hispanic
2013 2060
Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2013 and 2060(Percent of total population)
AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
33
91.2
153.7
47.4
76.2
0.4
15.2
-23.8
21.3
Hispanic(of any race)
Two orMore Races,Not Hispanic
NHPI alone,Not Hispanic
Asian alone,Not Hispanic
AIAN alone,Not Hispanic
Black alone,Not Hispanic
White alone,Not Hispanic
Total
Percent Change in the Population Under 18 Years by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2013 to 2060
AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
34
38.0
8.3
0.2
6.8
0.7
13.1
32.9
24.1
4.0
0.2
4.6
0.9
13.8
52.4
Hispanic(of any race)
Two orMore Races,Not Hispanic
NHPI alone,Not Hispanic
Asian alone,Not Hispanic
AIAN alone,Not Hispanic
Black alone,Not Hispanic
White alone,Not Hispanic
2013 2060
Population Under 18 Years by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2013 and 2060(Percent of total population under 18 years)
AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
35
37.440.3
44.5
49.0
53.457.4
47.650.9
54.9
59.4
63.667.1
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Total Under 18 years
Percent Minority: 2013 to 2060
Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic White alone population.
Summary: 2000 to 2010
In 2010, just over one-third of the U.S. population reported their race as something other than non-Hispanic White alone.
Nearly half of the population under 18 years are something other than non-Hispanic White alone.
Of the 27.3 million people added to the U.S. population between 2000 and 2010, 25.1 million were Hispanic or a race other than White.
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Summary: 2013 to 2060
The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly.
The older population is projected to nearly double, growing from 43 million in 2012 to 84 million in 2050. By 2030, one in five Americans will be 65 years or older.
The United States is projected to become a plurality nation by 2043. In 2060, 57.4 percent of the total population and 67.1
percent of the population under 18 is expected to be minority.
37
More Information
Stephanie Ewert
Foreign-Born Population Branch
301.763.1581
www.census.gov/population/projections
www.census.gov/population/race/
www.census.gov/population/hispanic/
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