The Global Authority on the Environment

UNEP / Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA)UNEP / Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA)

TOWARDS THE FOURTH GLOBAL TOWARDS THE FOURTH GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK (GEO-4) ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK (GEO-4) AND THE BELGRADE ASSESSMENTAND THE BELGRADE ASSESSMENT

UNECE/CEP Working Group on Environmental UNECE/CEP Working Group on Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (WGEMA) held atMonitoring and Assessment (WGEMA) held at

Palais des Nations, Geneva, 12-14 June 2006Palais des Nations, Geneva, 12-14 June 2006

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Towards GEO-4 in 2007…Towards GEO-4 in 2007…

Building on what has already been achieved, Building on what has already been achieved, while introducing a strengthened production while introducing a strengthened production process…process…

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GEO-4:GEO-4: the Objective the Objective

To provide by 2007:To provide by 2007:a comprehensive, policy-relevant,a comprehensive, policy-relevant,scientifically-credible and up-to-date scientifically-credible and up-to-date assessment; on the state of and outlook assessment; on the state of and outlook for the for the globalglobal environment environment, also taking also taking into account the int’l. environmental into account the int’l. environmental agenda (e.g., the MDGs)agenda (e.g., the MDGs)

Part of Part of strengthening the GEO processstrengthening the GEO process involves improving the quality, quantity involves improving the quality, quantity and accessibility to and accessibility to relevant data setsrelevant data sets..

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GEO-4:GEO-4: Linkages and Synergies Linkages and Synergies

(with other env’l. A&R processes)(with other env’l. A&R processes)

The “Belgrade report” for next EfE Ministerial The “Belgrade report” for next EfE Ministerial Conference; fourth pan-European SoE; EEA, Conference; fourth pan-European SoE; EEA, ECE et al.; Oct. 2007 ~ “GEO for Europe”..?ECE et al.; Oct. 2007 ~ “GEO for Europe”..?

OECD’s 2nd Environment Outlook (in 2007); OECD’s 2nd Environment Outlook (in 2007); shared database for future-oriented scenarios.shared database for future-oriented scenarios.

Drawing on results of other IEAs at global or Drawing on results of other IEAs at global or regional level (MA, GIWA et al.)…regional level (MA, GIWA et al.)…

Carpathians Environment Outlook (KEO).Carpathians Environment Outlook (KEO).

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GEO-4:GEO-4: Schedule/Timeframe Schedule/Timeframe

Initial Design MeetingInitial Design Meeting June 2004June 2004 Planning specific elementsPlanning specific elements July-Oct. ‘04July-Oct. ‘04 Regional Expert ConsultationsRegional Expert Consultations Sept-Oct. ‘04Sept-Oct. ‘04 GEO-4 Design MeetingGEO-4 Design Meeting Nov. 2004Nov. 2004 Regional Partners’ MeetingsRegional Partners’ Meetings Dec. 2004Dec. 2004 Global Consultation on GEO-4Global Consultation on GEO-4 Feb. 2005Feb. 2005 Partner agreements/contractsPartner agreements/contracts 1st quarter1st quarter 1st Authors’/Production mtg.1st Authors’/Production mtg. June 2005June 2005

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GEO-4:GEO-4: Schedule/Timeframe Schedule/Timeframe

Content development andContent development and July 2005 toJuly 2005 tofirst draft first draft March ‘06 March ‘06

Peer review and Peer review and regional regional April-June ‘06April-June ‘06 consultationsconsultations (Europe:(Europe: on 21-23 June)on 21-23 June) Second draft and peer reviewSecond draft and peer reviewJuly-Oct. ‘06July-Oct. ‘06

Third Production MeetingThird Production Meeting Nov. 2006Nov. 2006

Final draft preparationFinal draft preparation Nov.-Dec. ‘06Nov.-Dec. ‘06

Editing, layout, printingEditing, layout, printing Jan.-Aug. ‘07Jan.-Aug. ‘07

Launch and distributionLaunch and distribution Sept. 2007Sept. 2007

Assessment and Production work:Assessment and Production work:

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GEO-4:GEO-4: Report Structure/Chapters Report Structure/Chapters

Introduction and Policy-makers summary:Introduction and Policy-makers summary:setting GEO-4 within the context of international environmental setting GEO-4 within the context of international environmental governance; introducing the scope & specific focus of the reportgovernance; introducing the scope & specific focus of the report

Chapter 1: “Environment for Development” Chapter 1: “Environment for Development” what are the major questions answered by GEO(-4), and the what are the major questions answered by GEO(-4), and the evolution of environmental policy; Brundtland to MDGs.evolution of environmental policy; Brundtland to MDGs.

Chapters 2-5: State and trends of the Environment Chapters 2-5: State and trends of the Environment present SoE and trends; integrated analyses of four major themes present SoE and trends; integrated analyses of four major themes (air, land, water and biodiversity), plus regional perspectives.(air, land, water and biodiversity), plus regional perspectives.

Chapter 6: State and trends ~ regional perspectivesChapter 6: State and trends ~ regional perspectivesSections on Africa, A&P, Europe, LAC, N. America, West Asia Sections on Africa, A&P, Europe, LAC, N. America, West Asia and Polar areas, analysing regional priority issues and themes.and Polar areas, analysing regional priority issues and themes.

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GEO-4:GEO-4: Report Structure/Chapters Report Structure/Chapters

Chapter 7: InterlinkagesChapter 7: Interlinkagesassess key inter-linkages between biophysical/env’l change, and assess key inter-linkages between biophysical/env’l change, and human activities & drivers, feedbacks (policies/technology) et al.human activities & drivers, feedbacks (policies/technology) et al.

Chapter 8: Challenges and OpportunitiesChapter 8: Challenges and Opportunitieswhere do we stand in terms of implementing international env’l where do we stand in terms of implementing international env’l agenda(e); human vulnerability to change and well-being.agenda(e); human vulnerability to change and well-being.

Chapter 9: Outlook towards 2015 and beyondChapter 9: Outlook towards 2015 and beyondlikely future consequences of current policies and actions for the likely future consequences of current policies and actions for the environment and human society; possible/plausible outcomes of environment and human society; possible/plausible outcomes of current developments & trends; including short-range (2015), current developments & trends; including short-range (2015), medium- (2050) and long-term (2100) scenarios.medium- (2050) and long-term (2100) scenarios.

Chapter 10: Our Common Future (Policy Options)Chapter 10: Our Common Future (Policy Options)policy recommendations presented as options for action; overall policy recommendations presented as options for action; overall synthesis of policy-relevant findings and conclusions of GEO-4.synthesis of policy-relevant findings and conclusions of GEO-4.

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GEO-4 Data Support: the GEO Data PortalGEO-4 Data Support: the GEO Data Portal

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http://geodata.grid.unep.chhttp://geodata.grid.unep.ch ororhttp://www.unep.org/geo/datahttp://www.unep.org/geo/data

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GEO Data Portal Main FunctionsGEO Data Portal Main Functions

Data set search Data set search (by geog. area/name, theme, (by geog. area/name, theme, time period etc.).time period etc.).

Data set listing Data set listing (detailed results of search).(detailed results of search).

Data display Data display (numeric listings, various graphs (numeric listings, various graphs and maps ~ ready-made for documents).and maps ~ ready-made for documents).

Data set download Data set download (in various database and (in various database and cartographic formats).cartographic formats).

Meta-data listings.Meta-data listings.

Links to GEO CCs and data providers (~50).Links to GEO CCs and data providers (~50).

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Examples of new data sets in Data PortalExamples of new data sets in Data Portal

> > Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint>> Emissions of Particulates Smaller than 2.5 Microns Emissions of Particulates Smaller than 2.5 Microns>> Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD-1) - Level 1, 2, 3 Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD-1) - Level 1, 2, 3>> Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC 2000) Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC 2000)>> Gridded Population of the World: Future Estimates of Gridded Population of the World: Future Estimates of

Population and Population DensityPopulation and Population Density>> ISO 14001 Certifications ISO 14001 Certifications>> Nuclear Power Reactors Operable in 2005 - electrical Nuclear Power Reactors Operable in 2005 - electrical

output and numberoutput and number>> Percentage of Population below US $ 1 per day consumption Percentage of Population below US $ 1 per day consumption>> Proportion of Population Using Solid Fuels Proportion of Population Using Solid Fuels>> Protected Areas (Marine, IUCN Categories I-VI and not Classified) Protected Areas (Marine, IUCN Categories I-VI and not Classified)

total and per cent of total territorial areatotal and per cent of total territorial area>> Reported Cholera Cases - number of deaths Reported Cholera Cases - number of deaths>> Road Traffic - goods hauled per km. Road Traffic - goods hauled per km.>> WWF Ecoregions - Major Habitat Types (Biomes) with legends WWF Ecoregions - Major Habitat Types (Biomes) with legends

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Examples of updated data sets in Data PortalExamples of updated data sets in Data Portal

>> Carbon Dioxide Emissions - per Capita and Total (UNFCCC- Carbon Dioxide Emissions - per Capita and Total (UNFCCC-CDIAC)CDIAC)

>> Consumption of Ozone-Depleting Substances - chlorofluorocarbons Consumption of Ozone-Depleting Substances - chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydro-CFCs and methyl bromide(CFCs), hydro-CFCs and methyl bromide

>> Emissions of CO, NMVOC, NOX & SO2 - national totals (UNFCCC) Emissions of CO, NMVOC, NOX & SO2 - national totals (UNFCCC)>> Fish, Crustaceans and Molluscs’ Catch (Marine) Fish, Crustaceans and Molluscs’ Catch (Marine)>> Forests: Ave. annual change, Plantation annual change, Total extent Forests: Ave. annual change, Plantation annual change, Total extent>> Forests Certified by FSC-Accredited Certification Bodies Forests Certified by FSC-Accredited Certification Bodies>> Gridded Population of the World - Population and Pop. density Gridded Population of the World - Population and Pop. density>> International Tourism - arrival and departures International Tourism - arrival and departures>> Proportion of Land Area Covered by Forest Proportion of Land Area Covered by Forest>> Population living within 100 kilometers of coast Population living within 100 kilometers of coast>> Trade - percent of GDP Trade - percent of GDP

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Data Work for the Belgrade ReportData Work for the Belgrade Report

Discussions between EEA and UNEP/DEWA Discussions between EEA and UNEP/DEWA since early 2005 on a role for the latter in since early 2005 on a role for the latter in supporting the updated TACIS project.supporting the updated TACIS project.

Contract signed in May 2006 for UNEP/DEWA Contract signed in May 2006 for UNEP/DEWA to prepare a “data compendium” as add-to prepare a “data compendium” as add-

on on product to the Belgrade Report.product to the Belgrade Report. This contract also includes working directly This contract also includes working directly

with the EECCA countries to improve with the EECCA countries to improve data data collection capabilities, and development collection capabilities, and development of, of, and assessment of the relevant indicators.and assessment of the relevant indicators.

Recent history/series of Recent history/series of events:events:

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Data Work for the Belgrade ReportData Work for the Belgrade Report

Collection of relevant national data sets via Collection of relevant national data sets via joint EEA/UNEP consultant and related joint EEA/UNEP consultant and related country visits (July - September).country visits (July - September).

Organisation of three sub-regional workshops Organisation of three sub-regional workshops (C. Asia, Caucasus and E. Europe) to train (C. Asia, Caucasus and E. Europe) to train EECCA staff in using the UNECE-produced EECCA staff in using the UNECE-produced indicator guide, and help improve the same.indicator guide, and help improve the same.

These workshops will take place in Sept-Oct., These workshops will take place in Sept-Oct., with results serving as inputs for the related with results serving as inputs for the related UNECE meeting (Nov. 2006), and final out-UNECE meeting (Nov. 2006), and final out-puts i.e., the data compendium (mid-2007).puts i.e., the data compendium (mid-2007).

Plans for remainder of 2006:Plans for remainder of 2006:

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Annual “GEO Yearbooks”Annual “GEO Yearbooks”

First two volumes for 2003First two volumes for 2003

and 2004/05; third volumeand 2004/05; third volume

for 2006 now publishedfor 2006 now published

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MerciMerciSpaseboSpasebo

Thank youThank you