Understanding the Demographic Hurdles to Revitalize Saint Louis

J.S. Onésimo SandovalDepartment of Sociology and Anthropology

Saint Louis Universityjsandov3@slu.edu

Major Points

• Nearing the end of population loss

• Out-migration outpaces internal population momentum

• Saint Louis is ageing

• Dueling tension of population change

DEMOGRAPHIC HURDLES

Demography Hurdles

Migration

DeathsBirths

DemographicDividends

DemographicDividends

NEARING THE END OF POPULATION LOSS

Population Trends for Saint Louis

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000856,796

319,294

Total White Black Other

Popu

latio

n

Percent Change from 2000 to 2010

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

59%

-10% -10% -12%-21%

35%

-25% -26%

11%

Population Change from 2000 to 2010

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,0004,108

-33,014

-14,634

-21,061

-178

2,413

-21 -169

636

The end of the population decline is near

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

OUT-MIGRATION OUTPACES INTERNAL POPULATION MOMENTUM

Saint Louis should have grown by 5% (PMF)

18401850

18601870

18801890

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Saint Louis has a migration problem(Migration Factor Scores 2005 to 2010)

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 +

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

FemalesMales

2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

80,945

130,636

Since 2000, there has been a 61% increase in the foreign born population

(Saint Louis Metropolitan Region)

Source: Figure computed by Sandoval, J.S. Onésimo. U.S Census Data

2000 2010 2020 2030

80,945

268,954

126,513

227,723

126,513

202,421

What does the projection of Immigrants look like for the Saint Louis Metropolitan Region?

5.6 4.78 3

Source: Figure computed by Sandoval, J.S. Onésimo. U.S Census Data

SAINT LOUIS IS AGEING

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

6.6

5.4

5.3

7.1

9.0

10.0

8.0

6.5

6.1

6.8

7.3

6.2

4.6

3.1

2.4

5.5

8.0

8.8

9.6

8.9

7.6

5.7

4.6

4.5

5.2

5.4

5.4

5.7

5.8

5.0

4.0

5.82010 1970

Population (%)

2010 - Population DistributionIndex of Dissimilarity = .158

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

6.6

5.4

5.3

7.1

9.0

10.0

8.0

6.5

6.1

6.8

7.3

6.2

4.6

3.1

2.4

2.1

1.7

1.68

4.7

3.2

2.8

4.3

9.8

13.0

9.8

6.9

6.2

7.0

7.6

6.9

5.3

3.5

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.2Saint Louis White

Population (%)

2010 - Population DistributionIndex of Dissimilarity = .094

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

6.60

5.44

5.30

7.06

9.04

10.02

8.04

6.52

6.09

6.78

7.26

6.23

4.62

3.15

2.39

2.08

1.71

1.68

7.76

7.18

7.34

9.43

7.70

6.96

6.21

6.03

6.10

6.90

7.38

6.07

4.32

3.03

2.45

2.12

1.57

1.43Saint Louis Black

Population (%)

2010 - Population DistributionIndex of Dissimilarity = .077

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

6.6

5.4

5.3

7.1

9.0

10.0

8.0

6.5

6.1

6.8

7.3

6.2

4.6

3.1

2.4

2.1

1.7

1.68

11.4

7.7

6.0

7.0

12.0

12.4

10.9

7.9

6.4

4.8

4.1

3.2

1.9

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7Saint Louis Latino

Population (%)

2010 - Population DistributionIndex of Dissimilarity = .177

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10

12.64

11.43

9.57

8.27

7.83

9.15

9.04

8.05

6.42

5.12

3.97

2.87

2.01

1.22

0.88

0.66

0.50

0.35

6.04

6.34

6.43

6.03

5.41

6.93

6.58

6.61

6.86

8.01

7.95

7.02

5.91

4.25

3.05

2.51

2.04

2.03

LatinoWhite

Population (%)

2010 - Saint Louis Metro Population DistributionIndex of Dissimilarity = .260

DUELING TENSION OF POPULATION CHANGE

• There was a loss of 42,683 residents from 2000 to 2010

Block Group

Population Transition

> 250 Loss

1 to 250 Loss

1 to 250 Gain

> 250 Gain

• There was a gain of 13,777 residents from 2000 to 2010

• This resulted in a net decline of 28,906 residents from 2000 to 2010

Demographic transitions for declining neighborhoods

White Black Latino Other

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

-18322

-27441

2733347

Demographic transitions for growing neighborhoods

White Black Latino Other0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

3688

6380

1375

2334

WhiteBlack

Percent Population Loss

Block Group

> 25% Population Loss

10% to 25% Population Loss

Percent Population Loss

Block Group

> 25% Population Loss

10% to 25% Population Loss

Block Group

Population Transition

Gain

Loss

• There was a loss of 11,060 residents from 2000 to 2010

• There was a gain of 9,666 residents from 2000 to 2010

Demographic transitions for spatially declining neighborhoods

White Black Latino Other

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

-279

-10854

0 73

Demographic transitions for spatially growing neighborhoods

White Black Latino Other0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60005492

2638

278

1258

Summary

• Nearing the end of population loss

• Out-migration outpaces internal population momentum

• Saint Louis is ageing

• Dueling tension of population change