Understanding elite commitment to social protection: Rwanda’s VUPTom Lavers, ILO10th July 2015

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An adapted political settlements approach

Formal and informal

institutions

Paradigmatic ideas

Existing policy context

Problem frames,

policy ideas

Distributional regime:

- development strategy

- taxation

- social services

- social protection

Domestic and transnational

factions

Political prioritisation of SP Ruling coalition’s orientation to SP (long vs short-term)

Intended and unintended impacts: - regime legitimation, negotiated compromise - instability resulting from change in resource distribution and holding power

Political settlement

Domestic and global policy

advocates

Issue-specific policy coalition

Proposals rejected, revised or adopted based on compatibility with PS

Implementation, as intended or adapted to fit PS incentives

Resource distribution

Global factors

Bilateral and multilateral donors

Donors, IOs, INGOs

Global economic factors

Constraints related to implementation capacity

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Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP)• Targeted programme to address poverty:• Public works (2008)• Direct support (2009)• Financial services (2010)

• Progress by 2014: 168 of 416 sectors• DS expected to reach all sectors by 2015/16• 2/3 government financed, 1/3 donors

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Rwanda’s dominant party political settlement• RPF military victory in 1994. Political settlement

consolidated around 2000. • No strong elite opposition• Relatively centralised power and cohesive coalition• Strong top-down control mechanisms

• Key ideas:• Moving beyond ethnicity, promoting national unity • Rapid, inclusive socioeconomic progress is the only

means of overcoming past divisions, giving everyone a stake in country

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The VUP within the distributional regime• PRSP (2003-05)• Reasonable growth: 6.4% per annum 2001/02 –

2005/06• But rising inequality (0.51 Gini), low rate of poverty

reduction (3.5%), high regional inequalities• Identified as priority in 2007 leadership retreat• EDPRS 1 (2008-13)• Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) as one of

three flagship programmes• Aims to end extreme poverty by 2020

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Policy ‘bricolage’

• Policy coalition closely aligned with PS• 2007 study tour of Ethiopia’s PSNP• Public works, direct support, credit

• But integrated with existing government initiatives:• PDL-HIMO – labour-intensive infrastructure

development• Ubudehe – social mapping• Decentralisation – implemented by umurenge 6

Conclusions

• Elite commitment in search of a policy• Top-down, elite driven response to

threat to political settlement•No evidence of bottom-up pressures• Framing is key – VUP and the rise of

social protection•Policy translation, not diffusion

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Policy coalition aligned with political settlement• President Kagame• MINALOC• Minister Protais Musoni (MINALOC)

• MINECOFIN• Minister James Musoni• Economic adviser

• Donors• World Bank• DFID 8

Research designCountry Social assistance Health insuranceEthiopia Productive Safety Net

Programme (PSNP)Pilot Community-Based Health Insurance

Kenya Cash transfer schemes (OVC, elderly, disabled)

Proposed Social Health Insurance Scheme

Rwanda Vision 2020 Umurenge (VUP)

Mutuelles de Santé

Uganda Social Assistance Grants for Empowerment (SAGE)

Proposed National Health Insurance Scheme

Zambia Public Welfare Assistance Scheme (PWAS), Social Cash Transfers

Proposed Universal Health Insurance

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Implementation challenges

• Is social protection really the priority? • Low labour intensity of public works ~50%• Infrastructure development dominates local

government incentives • Targeting problems in Ubudehe• No correlation between ubudehe and

quantitative surveys (Sabates-Wheeler et al, 2015)• New approach currently being rolled out

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