UNCdcrp Carteret Co Presentation

8/3/2019 UNCdcrp Carteret Co Presentation

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Imagining the Futures

Department of City and Regional Planning

Fall 2011 Land Use and

Environmental Planning Workshop

Brennan Bouma

Daniel Brookshire

Katrina Durbak

Vivian JaynesBarron Monroe

Ryan Parzick

Kyle Vangel

Casey Weissman-Vermeulen

David Daddio (Project Manager)

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Support PlanIt Easts fall 2012 Reality Check

exercise using Carteret County as our subject

case:

Conduct comparative communities assessmentApply scenario planning techniques

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What is scenario planning? Contingent and Robust Plans

Overall process

Recommendations

3

ComparativeCommunities

Analysis(Identify Growth Drivers)

ScenarioPlanning

(Imagine PlausibleFutures)

Visualizeand Measure

(Communicate thescenarios)


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What is scenario planning

Construct plausible futures

Shake assumptions

Messy but realistic

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Present

statePlan

5

PreferredFuture


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Present

state

Robust

Plan

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Present

statePlan 2

Plan 1

Plan 3

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60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Carteret County Population

Projections

Actual Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4

Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (trend)


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Accomack County, VABarnstable County, MABeaufort County, SCJackson County, MSKent County, DEOkaloosa County, FL

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Forces acting upon Carteret Highway Improvements Port Expansion Tourism Military

CountyTransportation

/ PortsTourism Military

Accomack County, VA X XBarnstable County, MA X X

Beaufort County, SC X

Jackson County, MS X X

Kent County, DE X

Okaloosa County, FL X X

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Transportation

1990 Population Density 2010 Population Density


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Tourism

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Indexe

dto

1970

(1970

=1)

Carteret

Accomack

Barnstable

Okaloosa

SeasonalHousingUnitChange,Indexed

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population

Housing

OkaloosaCounty:Housingvs.PopulationAnnualGrowth


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Military

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Barnstable

Okaloosa

Beaufort

Carteret

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

MilitaryEmploymentasShareofTotalEmployment TotalMilitaryJobs


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In each scenario: Different Growth Drivers affect development Different regard for Suitability factors

Suitability Factors Include:Protected Lands Military Land Soils CAMAInfrastructure: Roads, Piped Water and Sewer ServiceProximity to Existing Development and Population Density

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Cooperation Drive Success External Forces Dominate

Tourist Trap

Robust

Plan


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48,179

61,673

78,947

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Housing Units

Actual

Projected

66,469

79,061

94,039

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Population

ActualProjected

Carteret booms withhighway improvements

Key regional stakeholdersdevelop proactive growth

management strategy

Growth is channeled intoareas most suitable

environmentally, socially,

and fiscally

Diverse and resilient coastaleconomy is anchored by

service, military, logistical,

and tourism sectors

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48,179

66,337

91,340

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Housing Units

Actual

Projected

66,469

81,025

98,769

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Population

ActualProjected

Carteret experiences rapidpopulation and housing

growth

Regional stakeholdersunable to agree how County

can grow sustainably

Tourist-dominated Countycomes to be known as The

New Myrtle Beach

MCAS Cherry Point shrinksafter BRAC round in the

2020s substantially reduces

its personnel

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48,179

60,185

75,184

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Housing Units

Actual

Projected

Global geopolitics leadCarteret to become a

military / logistics center

Improvements to Port ofMorehead City and highways

attract logistics firms

Military and logisticsinterests protect expansion

opportunities, but ignore

environmentally sensitiveareas

Tourists feel Carteret has lostits charm

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66,469

79,061

94,039

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Population

ActualProjected


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25

27,570

32,300

27,570

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Cooperation Tourist Trap External Forces

Projected Population Change

30,768

43,161

27,005

-5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

50,000

Cooperation Tourist Trap External Forces

Projected Housing Unit Change


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Scenario

DevelopmentOutside Sewer

Service Areas Flood Risk

Encroachmenton Agricultural

Lands

Encroachment onHigh Biodiversity

Value Areas

Cooperation DriveSuccess

Medium Medium Low LowTourist Trap High High Medium MediumExternal ForcesDominate

High High Medium Medium

Cooperation Drive Success External Forces DominateTourist Trap

Source: NC DENR


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Forging partnerships involves deep deliberation and is possibleonly over time.

The pursuit of one preferred scenario in scenario planningdistracts from the consideration of multiple uncontrollable

external forces. Scenario planning has tremendous data needs. Storm Surge in the near term is similar to sea level rise in the long

term.

Instead of relying on technology to create scenarios, focus moreon the purpose of the stories.

Scenario planning should draw upon both local expertise andoutside knowledge

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Questions? Contact:David Daddio

City and Regional Planning Masters Candidate, [email protected]

Department of City and Regional Planning29

Documents

UNCdcrp Carteret Co Presentation