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UMAC data call page 1 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian ZhuEnsemble Team Leader, Environmental Modeling CenterNOAA / NWS / NCEP
UMAC data call page 2 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
Wh
ole
A
tmo
sph
ere
M
od
el
Unified Global Model
Application=
Ensemble+
Reanalysis+
Reforecast
NGGPSUnified Global Coupled Model
“GFS” “GEFS” “CFS”
Actionable weather
Week 1 through 4-6
Seasonal & annual
1 y 2 y 4 y Update cycle
3 y 20-25 y 1979 - present Reanalysis
6h 6-24h ??? cycling
WCOSS WCOSS WCOSS ? where
UMAC data call page 3 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
Current Status of GEFS
• Initial analysis/perturbations– GFS/GSI analysis– BV-ETR (Breeding Vector – Ensemble Transform with Rescaling)
• Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297–3319.
• Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008: "Initial Perturbations Based on the Ensemble Transform (ET) Technique in the NCEP Global Operational Forecast System" Tellus 59A, 62-79
• Model– GFS model (see GFS reforences)
• Relocation– TS relocation since 2005
• Liu, Q., S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth and T. Marchok, 2006: Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System, Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.13.
• Stochastic physics– STTP (stochastic total tendency perturbation) since 2010
• Hou, D., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, W. Yang and R. Wobus, 2012: A Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme Representing Model- Related Uncertainties in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System, Submitted to Tellus-A (Dec. 2010)
• Configuration– 20+1 members, four times per day, out to 16 days.
UMAC data call page 4 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Upgrade (Q4FY15)
V10.0.0 (OPR) V11.0.0 (PARA)
GFS Model Euler, 2012 Semi-Lagrangian, 2015
Resolution 0-192 h T254 (52km) L42 (hybrid) TL574 (34km) L64 (hybrid)
Resolution 192-384 h T190 (70km) L42 (hybrid) TL382 (52km) L64 (hybrid)
Computational Cost105 nodes (Integration + post-process)
310 nodes 1st segment250 nodes 2nd segment
Execution time 55 min35 min 1st segment30 min 2nd segment
Output resolution 1O x 1O 0.5O x 0.5O for 0-8 days 1O x 1O the rest
Output frequency 6h 3h the first 8 days; 6h the rest
UMAC data call page 5 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Upgrade (Q4FY15)
• Moving from BV-ETR approach to EnKF– A major scientific shift
• Unification DA and Ensemble Generation– Direct link to the hybrid 3D-Var EnKF DA system
• Perturbations are 6h forecasts EnKF with adjustments:– Tropical Storm Relocation– Centering of the perturbations on the ensemble control analysis
• Stochastic perturbation (STTP) upgrade– Fine-tune amplitude for changes in model and perturbation
method– Turn off surface pressure perturbations for tropical
• to reduce the spread growing of geopotential height
UMAC data call page 6 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Upgrade (Q4FY15)
6
685 cases
Northern Hemisphere 500hPa Geopotential
Height
77%
9.52d
9.20d
75%
Summary from nearly 2 years retrospective runs:
1. GEFSv11 improves forecast skill (60%) about 8 hours
2. GEFSv11 enhances AC score from 75% to 77% for day-7 forecast
T2m for Northern American
With bias correction, GEFSv11 reduces
RMS error for all leads
Summer precipitation for CONUS
Improve reliability
UMAC data call page 7 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
00UTC
Opr: T254L42(55km)
Para: T574L64(33km)
06UTC
Thick blue: ensemble
mean
Bimodality?
Sandy
Ini: 20121022; Fcst: 8-day
UMAC data call page 8 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Short-term Plan
• Initial perturbations– Use EnKF analysis directly, not 6-hour forecasts
• Model– GFS model with tuning parameters for lower resolution
• Relocation– TS relocation with tuning TS amplitude of perturbations
• Stochastic physics– Introduce well-established stochastic tendency perturbations
• SKEB, SPPT and SHUM
• Configurations– 20+1 members, four times per day, out to 16 days.– Continue to investigate the benefits from different ensemble
membership (size)
UMAC data call page 9 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Long-term Plan
• Toward unified global system– Full coupled system
• Uniform resolution– Consider uniform resolution after introduce high resolution global
ensemble for weather (out to 7-10 days)
• Ensemble size (or membership)– Continue to investigate the benefits of different ensemble membership
• Cover week-1, week-2, week 3&4 and monthly forecast– See slides (#10-15) for GEFS extend forecast– Introduce land surface uncertainties (perturbations)– Introduce ocean uncertainties (perturbations)
• Upgrade every 2 years• 20-25 years reanalysis and GEFS reforecasts for every
upgrade.
UMAC data call page 10 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
Global Ensemble Forecast System
Extend to 35 days (experiments)
Yuejian ZhuEnsemble Team Leader, Environmental Modeling CenterNOAA / NWS / NCEP
UMAC data call page 11 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Extend Forecast• Short term plan (1-2 years)
– Atmospheric model only– Introduce SST forcing to assimilate MJO and others– Ocean and land surface perturbations
• In testing – may not include in short-term implementation plan– Stochastic physics
• Will use the same stochastic physic scheme as GEFS 0-16 day forecast.– Configurations
• 20+1 members, twice per week, from 16 days to 35 days.
• Long term plan (3-5 years)– Unified global forecast system– Fully coupled system
• Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice-Wave-Aerosol – Initial perturbations
• EnKF DA for atmosphere and ocean– Model uncertainties
• Stochastic physics– Configurations
• 20+1 members (?), uniform resolutions, once per day, out to 45 days
UMAC data call page 12 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Extend Forecast
• Experiments– Period: Sept. 1st 2013 – Feb. 28th 2014 (6 months)
• Weak MJO period– GEFS v11 (2015)
• 20+1 members, 33km for day 0-8, 50km for day 8-16, 70km for day 16-35– Three different configurations have been tested
• CTL – default GFS/GEFS setting – start with RTG SST analysis, relaxed to climatology (90 days e-folding)
• RTG – using RTG analysis forcing GEFS every 24 hours (AMIP)• CFS – using CFSv2 predictive SST forcing GEFS every 24 hours)
– Two additional configurations are on going• CFS* - using CFSv2 predictive SST (bias corrected) anomaly forcing GEFS
every 24 hours• Full coupling with MOM4 (or MOM6)
– Evaluations• Tropical – MJO, precipitation• Extratropical – 500hPa height, surface temperature and precipitation• Extreme weather patterns – Blocking, polar vortex
UMAC data call page 13 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
1. RTG-SST (AMIP) run has good MJO forecast skills2. CTL-SST runs has less MJO forecast skills for first 2 weeks
WH-MJO fcst skills for GEFS(6 months average)
UMAC data call page 14 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
Evolution of error difference (500hPa height)5-day running mean (09/01/2013 – 2/28/2014)
UMAC data call page 15 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
Lea
d d
ay =
19
Lea
d d
ay =
23
RMSE SPREAD
RMS error and spread distributions for 500hPa height of CTL-SST20130901 – 20140228 (6 months) 5-day running mean
For different lead times
Uncertainty is Well represented
Over dispersion ?
UMAC data call page 16 of 16Global Ensemble Forecast System - GEFS
GEFS Reforecast
• Consider latest 20-25 years– Goes with every model upgrade– Goes with new re-analysis– Better to start from 1998 (AMUSU data started)
• Configurations– Option 1: use “white paper” recommendation– Option 2: consider NWC’s request (current impossible)
• Real-time or retrospective– Resource dependence
• Benefits– National centers: WPC, CPC, OPC, NWC– Regions: WFO