UCC Climate Change Research Workshop

Flash PresentationsUniversity College Cork

May 29th, 2013, 9:00 -13:00Boole 5, UCC Campus

Dr. Ned Dwyer

The Status of Ireland’s Climate, 2012

Essential Climate Variables of Relevance to Ireland

as defined by the Global Climate Observing System Secretariat

Air Temperature

T mean has increased by approximately 0.8oC over the last 110 years

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-0.9

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

8.6

9.0

9.4

9.8

10.2

10.6

Mean Surface Air Temperature (1900-2011)Annual Mean Simple linear trend 11 year moving average 1961-1990 Normal

Year

Diffe

renc

e (o

C) fr

om 1

961

- 199

0 Mean Annual Tem

perature (oC)

Ireland’s Climate is changing in line with regional and global trends…..

…but local patterns are evident. It is essential that Ireland’s climate observation system is maintained and enhanced to allow us understand how our climate is changing and how best to adapt

Dr. Dean VenablesDept. of Chemistry/ERI

New Approaches To Measuring The Aerosol Direct Effect In Radiative Forcing

OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLES

Field studies: Martins et al., 2009

“a large source of uncertainty in the aerosol radiative forcing estimates is associated with aerosol absorption.” (IPCC, 2007)

Wood combustion: Chen & Bond, 2010

OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLES

Broadband optical cavity spectroscopy (IBBCEAS)Coupled to simulation chambers

INSTRUMENT DEVELOPMENT: Extension to near-UV

CCD

FTIR

NOx detect. O3 detect.

Atmospheric chamber

Xe Arc Lamp

Filter

Iris

L1

L2

Iris

M M

M1 M2

OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF NITROAROMATIC AEROSOL

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

0

1

2

3

Fra

ctio

nal i

nten

sity

cha

nge

Time (min)

400 nm

340 nm

photolysis

1-NN added

(a)

60 80 100 120

0

20

40

60

Con

cent

ratio

n (

103 c

m-3)

Time (min)

0

1

2

3

Mas

s co

ncen

trat

ion

(10

2 g

m-3)

(b)

320 340 360 380 400

0

2

4

6118 min

99 min

94 min

extin

ctio

n co

effici

ent (

10-5 c

m-1)

wavelength (nm)

(c)

89 min (1-NN gas)

NO2

1-nitronaphthalene

OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLES

• Measure broadband, near-UV extinction spectra of gases & particles• Study optical properties of different aerosol types & how they

change with atmospheric processing

Prof. Graham ParkesDept. of Philosophy

The Politics of Global Warming

The Politics of Climate Change:

Philosophical Perspectives

• 1. The Climate Sciences• 2. Climate Scepticism• 3. The Promethean

Spirit• 4. Engaging China• 5. Nature and

Technology

Climate Scepticism

Psycho-social factors: the problem is imperceptible, abstract (far future);

wishful thinking, pre-judgments -

social identity

Economic factors: tackling climate change will restrict growth of GNP

• Political factors: two major obstacles (USA)

• 1. The enormous financial power of the fossil fuel industries

» to fund think-tanks, lobby Congress, re-elect politicians

• Carbon-rich nations: » USA, Russia, China, Australia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi

Arabia, India, Canada . . .

• 2. The power of the religious Republicans in Congress» who control the Committee on the Environment, the

Energy Committee, the Science Committee

An inconvenient fact:To stand an 80% chance of preventing a temperature rise of

2ºC over pre-industrial levels, some 80% of currently

owned fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground

-- a loss of some $20 trillion.

• Myth: ‘This never happened, but is always going on.’

• The Titan Prometheus gave us fire stolen from Zeus • and (stolen from other Gods) the techniques of

survival:

• woodworking, house-building, ship-building,• agriculture, animal husbandry, and mining.

• Plato: ‘Prometheus gave humans the survival arts, but

• not the political arts.’

Prometheus relieved us of ‘a sense of our death’ and gave us instead ‘blind hopes’.

The punishment of Prometheus:

Chained to a rock on a mountain-top, his liver is pecked out daily by the eagle of Zeus.

The Spirit of Prometheus

Celine McInerneyFinance Lecturer

Department of Accounting, Finance and Information Systems

“Financial Market Assessment of Carbon Liabilities”

Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assetsLord Nicholas Stern

• 565 – 886 billion tonnes CO2 carbon budget for 20 C scenario (IEA & Carbon Tracker)• 2,860 billion tonnes CO2 – Top 200 emitters current fossil fuel reserves (Stern et al.)

• 40-60% of the market value of top 200 oil and gas companies ($4 trillion market value & $1.5 trillion debt) at risk as carbon liabilities are not recognised by investors

Conclusion: Markets do not believe politicians will enforce carbon targets

• If markets are right => carbon targets not enforced and temperature will increase by over 30 C • If markets are wrong => politicians enforce carbon targets and 40-60% of energy companies’

value will be wiped out

Summary• No accounting standard for carbon liabilities• CO2 liabilities not disclosed in accounts • Difficult for rating agencies to assess impact• Expectation of CO2 market fix increasing cost of capital –

April 16, 2013, following EU parliament rejection of CO2 “backloading” plan utilities shares ↓: Eon 5%, RWE 2%

• Neither equity nor credit markets pricing in CO2 risk

Areas of Knowledge• Finance theory on risk and return, portfolio theory• Valuation using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Monte Carlo• Modelling financial returns to renewable investors• Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Weighted Average Cost of

Capital (WACC), Cost of debt (bond pricing), cost of equity – calculating asset Betas etc.

• Options: Black and Scholes, Margrabe spread options, real options

• Financial statement analysis• Energy market models and electricity price forecasting, SEM,

BETTA• Interconnection / Valuation of Interconnectors • Accounting for carbon liabilities

Dr Fiona Cawkwell, Department of Geography, UCC; f.cawkwell@ucc.ie

Earth Observation systems for Climate Change

Earth Observation systems for Climate Change

Dr Fiona Cawkwell, Department of Geography, UCC; f.cawkwell@ucc.ie

FAPAR value

Courtesy of Dr Brian O’Connor

Courtesy of Dr Brian Barrett

Courtesy of Gillian Whelan

Courtesy of Stuart Green

Dr Fiona Cawkwell, Department of Geography, UCC; f.cawkwell@ucc.ie

Courtesy of Dr Brian Barrett

Earth Observation systems for Climate Change at UCC

Wind Energy, CO2 emissions and export of renewable electricity

Dr. Paul Leahy,Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Environmental Research

InstituteUniversity College Cork

ERI Climate Change Research Showcase, May 29th 2013paul.leahy@ucc.ie

Image: Anne, flickr.com, creative commons licence

CO2 sources CO2 sinks

ERI Climate Change Workshop 2013

Does wind energy mitigate CO2 emissions?

• Turbine manufacture• Transport to site• Soil disturbance• Foundations & site works• Tree felling• Spinning reserve• Other power system effects• Operations & maintenance• Decommissioning

• Displaced CO2 emissions from fossil fuel generation

pre-operational operational-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

CO

2 em

issi

ons

[g C

O2 /

kW

h]

Indicative wind farm CO2 balance

foundations/site works

peat disturbanceturbine manufacture

displaced emissions (1 year)

ERI Climate Change Workshop 2013

Does wind energy mitigate CO2 emissions?

CO2 emissions are highly site-dependent

Yes, overwhelmingly,:

but…CO2 abatement: Power

systems are complex -- new measures and

infrastructure to support renewables may have

unintended consequences!lifetime

1 yearCO2 sink

CO2 source

Wind export to Britain: issues to be resolved

• RES-E generated counts towards UK renewables target

• CO2 associated with land-use change : “booked” in Ireland?

• Extent of construction on cutaway bogs and tree felling?

• Lost opportunities for peatland restoration – what are long-term CO2 fluxes at restored peatlands?

ERI Climate Change Workshop 2013

‘Greenwire’ project – Element Power (2.5 GW wind) `c. 1000 turbines

‘EnergyBridge’ project - Mainstream Renewable Power (3 GW wind) c. 1200 turbines

… both by 2020!

Climate Justice, Human Rights and Natural Disasters

Dug CubieIrish Research Council New Foundations awards

University College Cork, Ireland29th May 2013

Protection of Persons

Climate change

Disaster risk

reduction

Disaster response

Sustainable development

Kyoto Protocol

Hyogo Framework

ILC draft articles

MDGs

Post-2015 frameworks

Incoherent Broadband Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (IBBCEAS)

Application to Climate Research

Ranjini RaghunandanAlbert A. Ruth

Physics Department, University College Cork

IBBCEAS• Measures the transmission of light intensity through a stable optical

cavity consisting of high reflectance mirrors (R>0.999)

• Allows a significant spectral range to be covered simultaneously• Light sources commercially available, simple, inexpensive and bright

• IBBCEAS + FT High spectral resolution• High sensitivity, experimental simplicity

Fiedler, S.E., Hese, A., Ruth, A.A., Chem. Phys. Lett., 371 (2003) 284.Orphal, J., Ruth, A.A., Opt. Express, 16 (2008) 19232.

The Hydroxyl Radical

• OH: The most important oxidising agent in the troposphere!

• Determines concentrations and distribution of greenhouse gases and pollutants

• An important source for CO2 production

• OH + CO CO2 + H

The role of nitrogen in OH production

• NO2 + H2O HONO + HNO3

Lammel, G., Cape, J. N., Chem. Soc. Rev., 25 (1996) 361.Heard, D. E. Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem. 57 (2006) 191 .

Application of FT-IBBCEAS to the HONO problem

• Detection of the species’ fingerprints over 3000 cm-1 allows direct comparison of

relative concentrations a probe to the reaction chemistry

• High spectral resolution contribution to spectral databases

Other applications of IBBCEAS

• Chemical Reaction Kinetics• Pollution monitoring• Fundamental Science and Research• Breath Analysis• Combustion Diagnostics

More Informationhttp://laser-spectroscopy.ucc.ie/