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Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16Volume ('000) Close Price, USD
Company profile: Overview and Market ProfileRecommendation and Market ProfileBrief Overview
Twitter inc. is a crossplatform online social networking service with 320 million monthly active users* available in more than 40 languages.
The total revenue in Q2 is $602 million, an increase of 20% YoY with an adj. EBITDA of $175 million - up 45% YoY (adj. EBITDA margin of 29%). Cost per Engagement in Q2 declined 64% YoY.
Listed on NYSE (TWTR), XETRA (TWR) and Mexican Stock Exchange (TWTR).
Company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California. Jack Dorsey – CEO, Omid Kordestani –Chairman.
Stock Price and Volume, 3Y
Sources: MFC Research team estimates,Company reports, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters * As of 31st of December 2015
Relative Performance Dynamics, 1Y
1
Market Profile (multiples as 16E)
Closing Price 18.09 USD Market Cap.,$ bln 12.80
52 week low/high 13.73/31.87 Free-float, % 84.60
Av. Daily Volume 6 174 000 Beta 1.17
Diluted Shares Out. 712.53 mln Bid/Ask 0.01
P/E -30.5x P/BV 2.6x
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16
Dow Jones Internet Comp. S&P500 Twitter
Country: USA | Sector: Internet Services12M Recommendation: BUY | Target Price: $21.00
109.80% 111%
58.10% 14.60%7.90%
-76.50%
-21%-3.10% 4.80% 9.90%
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Sales growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%)
72%35%
17% 10%30%
6%39% 41%
-56% -64%Ql'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q215 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q216
Key Financial Metrics
Key Performance Metrics
Key Operating Metrics
Company profile: Operations and Financials
2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
US International Worldwide, rhs
694%
255%152% 78% 32% 53%
165% 153% 208% 226%
Ql'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q215 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q216
Monthly Active Users (MAUs) Growth,% YoY
Ad Engagements (Growth,% YoY)
Cost per Engagement (Growth,% YoY)
Sources: MFC Research team estimates, Company reports, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters
-50.00%
-30.00%
-10.00%
10.00%
30.00%
50.00%
70.00%
90.00%
110.00%
130.00%
150.00%
170.00%
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
EPS growth ROE Net debt/equity
Goldman Sachs= Buy
Deutsche Bank = Buy
UBS= Buy
Barclays Capital= Hold
Morgan Stanley= Sell
=> MFC RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Potential Deal Concerns New focus on live stream videos; Increasing investment in user protection
mechanism; Significant usability improvement; Development of video advertisement;
Comparablecompanies
(Gordon growth)DCF
EV/EBITDA 2016E
EV/EBITDA 2017E
EV/SALES 2016E
21.5 22.320.5 21.5
Comparablecompanies
(EBITDA multiple)
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
19.9 21.4
20.221.5067
22.119.7
Target Price 1 Year = $21
Valuation and Recommendation
3
EV/SALES 2017E 19.8 22.3
Sources: MFC Research team estimates, Company reports, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters
Peer Multiples Management Strategy Positive Forecast
Current Price:Diluted Shares Out.Current Market Cap
18.09712.5312 889.13
Less: Cash & EquivalentsPlus: Debt
Adjusted EV
3 588.211 620.7210 921.64
4.83
6.8
16.85
5.22
101.2
18.58
32.95
15.33
P/S EV/EBITDA
Used by world’s most trusted media outlets (BBC, CNN and Times of India)
Strong corporate governance based on 6 independent and 2 employee (CEO, Chairman) directors with firm background
Highlights
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
EBIT margin 9.2% 13.4% 14.7% 17.3% 19.3%
ROIC 35.8% 68.7% 38.7% 49.4% 65.1%
P/E, diluted x 62.8 89.5 30.9 24.7 18.8
EV/EBITDA,x 92.3 37.4 11.7 10.5 9.6
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