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Tunisia
An Oasis of Peace and
Tolerance:
Findings from a Panel Survey
Mansoor Moaddel Professor of Sociology University of Maryland
The data used in this presentation are from projects funded by the Office of Naval Research and AFRICOM
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Project Team Members
University of Maryland
Mansoor Moaddel, PI
David Combs, Research Affiliate
University of Michigan
Julie de Jong
Stuart Karabenick
Zeina Mneimneh
Beth-Ellen Pennell
Eastern Michigan University
Kristine Ajrouch
Longwood University
Sarai Blincoe
Institute National du Travail et des
Etudes Sociales, Tunisia
Moez Ben Hmida
ELKA Consulting, Tunis
Mohamed Ikbal Elloumi
2
Panel Survey Characteristics:
2013-2015
A nationally representative sample of 3,070 adults
(age 18+) were interviewed in March-May, 2013.
Same respondents re-contacted in April-August,
2015, yielding 2,395 completed interviews.
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I. Changes in Values:
Increase in support for social individualism
No change in attitudes toward gender equality
Decline in support for political Islam or army rule
Increase in preference for Western-type government
The rise of national identity and national pride
Increase in religious tolerance
Social Individualism
5
26%
56%
29%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Love as basis for marriage It's up to a woman to dress whatever wayshe wants (% Strongly agree/Agree)
2013 2015
Gender Equality (% Strongly disagree/Disagree)
6
81%
21%
44%
80%
25%
82%
22%
38%
86%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Acceptable forman to have
more than onewife
A wife mustalways obey her
husband
Men make betterpolitical leaders
Universityeducation more
important forboys
Men have morerights to a job
2013 2015
Secular Politics
7
73%
63%
53%
73% 71% 65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tunisia better if religion andpolitics are separated(strongly agree/agree)
Having an Islamic govt(fairly/very bad)
Good govt implements onlysharia (least/not important)
2013 2015
Form of Government
8
47%
20%
36%
57%
28% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tunisia better if govt similarto Western govts
(% strongly agree/agree)
Strong head of govt whodoesn't bother with
parliament and elections(% very/fairly good)
Having the army rule(% very/fairly good)
2013 2015
Religious versus National Identity
9
59%
30%
42%
47%
52%
38% 38%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% I am Muslim aboveall
% I am Tunisianabove all
% I see myself as acitizen of the Islamic
umma
% I see myself as acitizen of Tunisia
2013 2015
National Pride % Very proud to be a Tunisian
10
77%
84%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2013 2015
Religious Tolerance (% Strongly disagree/disagree)
11
81%
66%
77%
33%
69%
89%
77% 84%
40%
71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Non-Muslimsshould be
prohibited topractice their
religion in Tunisia
Our childrenshould not be
allowed to learnabout other
religions
The followers ofother religions
should not havethe same rights as
mine
Criticism of Islamshould not be
tolerated
Criticism ofMuslim religious
leaders should notbe tolerated
2013 2015
12
II. Government Performance, Elections,
Corruption & Information Sources:
Government performing better
Tunisia more democratic
Elections fairer
Corruption among public officials less common
Higher trust in prime minister, president & the military
More reliance on the national and less on international sources
of information
Government Performance & the
Development of Democracy in Tunisia
13
4.05 3.98
4.65 4.80
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
How well is the govt doing(1=Very bad; 10=Very good)
How democratic is Tunisia(1=Not at all; 10=Completely)
2013 2015
Fairness of Elections & Prevalence of
Corruption among Public Officials
14
69%
15%
77%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Fairness of last election(% completely fair/with minor problems)
Corruption among govt officials(% uncommon/very uncommon)
2013 2015
Trust in Political Leaders & Political
Institutions (% A lot/Some)
15
23%
31%
39%
92%
45%
22%
54% 52%
95%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Political parties President Prime Minister Military Press
2013 2015
Reliance on Types of Media as
Sources of Information % Rely a great deal/Some
16
70%
47%
28% 29%
76%
44%
31% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Tunisian television Internationaltelevision
Social networkingsites
Internet
2013 2015
17
III. Perceptions of Outgroups
More favorable toward Americans & French
Less moral centric: a higher rating of Americans
and lower rating of Tunisians on a morality scale
Substantial increase in distrusting the Salafis
Like Having Americans, French, & Saudis as
Neighbors (%)
18
46%
64%
58% 57%
67%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Americans French Saudis
2013 2015
Morality of Americans & Tunisians (on
a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being “low morality” and 10 “high
morality”)
19
4.67
6.04
4.97 4.82
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
The U.S. Tunisia
Mean
level o
f m
ora
lity
2013 2015
Trust in the Salafis
20
11%
23%
12%
55%
3% 9% 8%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
A lot Some Only a little Not at all
2013 2015
21
IV. Perception of Personal
Efficacy
Weaker perception of insecurity
A higher level of perceived control over
one’s life
Less fatalistic
Perceived Control (1= “lowest control” or “everything decided by fate”)
22
6.06
3.30
6.61
3.85
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Free choice and control Free will vs. Fate
Me
an
le
ve
l o
f e
mo
tio
n
2013 2015
In Tunisia these days, life is
unpredictable and dangerous
23
22% 28%
62% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2013 2015
Agree Strongly agree
24
V. Changes in Attitudes toward
Political Violence
Lower approval of attack on the American
military in Iraq or Afghanistan
Stronger willingness to fight outgroups
Approval of Political Violence % Strongly/somewhat approve of attacks on…
25
57%
5% 6% 2%
36%
4% 5% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
US military in Iraq orAfghanistan
US civilians workingfor US companies in
Europe
US civilians workingin Islamic countries
Tunisian securityforces
2013 2015
Willingness to Fight Out-groups (% Strongly agree)
26
23%
70%
11%
27%
35% 30%
79%
15%
35%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Threatenenemies andmake them
suffer
Self-sacrifice todefend Tunisia
Muslims mustuse violence
against enemiesof Islam
Tunisiansoblgated to fight
influence ofWestern culture
Shi'is a threat toSunnis
2013 2015
27
VI. Changes in Attitudes toward
the Arab Spring & Obligations of
Tunisians
Most importance purpose of political
upheavals in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia
28
56%
8%
2%
20%
9% 5%
29%
8%
2%
15%
40%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Freedomand
democracy
Islamicgovernment
CounterWesterninfluence
Economicequality andprosperity
Westernconspiracy
Unity of allArab
countries
2013 2015
Most importance obligation for Tunisians
29
60%
2%
20% 18%
74%
1%
15% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Excel in science andtechnology
Travel to Muslimcountries to fightenemies of Islam
Defend people’s freedom of speech
Apply Islamic shari’a in Tunisia
2013 2015
Correlations of Changes in Attitudes
30
Increase in
religious
tolerance
Decline in
approval of
assault on US
military troops
Decline
in trust
in
Salafis
Decreased
support for
Islamic govt
Decreased
support for
sharia
Increase in
support for
Western
govt
Decline in approval of assault on
US military troops
.121*
Decline in trust in Salafis .001 .065*
Decreased support for Islamic
govt .192* .065* .157*
Decreased support for sharia .132* .034 .123* .309*
Increase in support for Western
govt .037 .013 .075* .073* .058*
Increase in secular identity .054* .066* .044 .092* .059* .040
Recap: Tunisians Grew More Favorable
toward Liberal Democracy
Stronger support for social individualism
Higher religious tolerance
Increase in support for national identity
More favorable perception of government
Stronger perception of personal efficacy
Less support for political Islam
Less trust in religious extremism
Less supportive of political violence
More favorable attitudes toward Americans
31
Thank you!
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