Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ABRAHAM [email protected]
2016 issue 22December 16, 2016
The American Opera Much greater than the theatrical phenomenon Hamilton, the drama currently playing out in the U.S. may have repercussions for years. First, the U.S. president-elect’s fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending and regulatory reform plans have fueled an impressive rally in stocks. At the same time, a string of improvedeconomic data, oil production cuts and expectations of a Fed move helped spark a jump in global bond yields. What’s most impressive is how well the marketshave received the Trump revolution. Markets have also proved “resilient” as there were serious concerns previously that low levels of liquidity and overstretchedvaluations could spread turmoil as bond yields rise and investors scale back their expectations of continued low rates. Oil prices have surged since OPECannounced that it will cut production for the first time in eight years. Saudi Arabia signaled it would be ready to cut oil production more than expected, a surpriseannouncement made minutes after Russia and several other non-OPEC countries pledged to curb output next year. Taken together, the Organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries’ first deal with its rivals since 2001 plus the Saudi comments represent a forceful effort by producers to wrest back control of theglobal oil market, depressed by persistent oversupply and record inventories. Moreover, Riyadh and Moscow were seemingly setting aside their historic rivalry asenergy suppliers and the toxic politics of Syria to reassert their authority over the world’s very important commodity. The new US shale business will need to bewatched. It has still not yet been through one full cycle of growth, downturn and recovery - but if market prices back up, US production may ramp up once again…
Saudi Minister Jolts Oil Market in Whatever It TakesMoment OPEC has agreed its first limit on oil output since 2008,sources in the producer group told Reuters, with Saudi Arabiaaccepting "a big hit" on its production and agreeing to arch-rivalIran freezing output at pre-sanctions levels.
Ahead of promised cut, Russia's oil output pushed to record high
US unemployment rate registers lowest since 2007Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said.The solid gains in employment likely reflect rising confidence in the economy. Datafor September and October were, however, revised to show 2,000 fewer jobs createdthan previously reported. The three-tenths of a percentage point drop in theunemployment rate last month to its lowest level since August 2007 was both theresult of more people finding work as well as dropping out of the labor force.
The shift towards fiscal reflation will be the dominant
Political instability could shake financial market confidence and destabilize Italy's banking sectorItaly sank into political limbo after Prime Minister Matteo Renziannounced his resignation on the back of a crushing defeat overhis constitutional referendum, triggering renewed financialturbulence for Europe.Italians’ rejection of a reformist leader underlined worries aboutthe country’s commitment to the euro, as well as its bankingsystem, which holds 360 billion euros, or about $385 billion, insuspect debt.
OPEC and non‐OPEC producers on Saturday reached their first dealsince 2001 to curtail oil output jointly and ease a global glut aftermore than two years of low prices that overstretched many budgetsand spurred unrest in some countries.
25bps Rate Hike ….How many Fed rate hikes should investors expect in 2017?
The real winners of the oil output deal: US shale drillers
Do not underestimate: risks of a gradual breakup of the EU
US industrial output declined 0.4% during November (‐0.6%y/y) following a 0.1% October uptick, revised from no change.The latest reading disappointed expectations… warmer‐than‐normal temperatures reduced the demand for heating
Dollar surges to 14-year high after Fed flags more rate hikes
The PunchLine...
2
December 16, 2016
In This Issue
Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.
• Engines of GrowthThe U.S. is facing a revolution… a repudiation of key fiscal, trade, economicand regulatory assumptions. We will continue to monitor the outlook for thisseismic shift. Weak world trade and productivity, along with high debt levelsand policy limitations, continue to cloud the global economic outlook. Despiteextensive and massive easing, most of the global economy still faces woefullyinadequate growth prospects and difficult policy options. The U.S. stands alonein the shift in monetary policy and the improvement in job markets. Veryobvious financial vulnerabilities and serious geopolitical concerns areaggravating the uncertainty. And let’s not forget that many of the challengesare not fleeting, and many cannot be resolved easily or quickly…
(pg 8)
• The Market Roar… b (pg 9)
• Dislocation, Dislocation (pg 10)
• Households…. (pg 11)
• Households Hint… (pg 12)
• Careful Reading… (pg 13)
• Credit… (pg 14)
• The US Flow of Funds … (pg 15)
• Pumping Iron (pg 16)
• The DNA of Business… (pg 17)
• Real Estate and Construction… (pg 18)
• Will Life Ever be the Same? (pg 19)
• American Opera… Now What? Much greater than the theatrical phenomenon Hamilton, the drama currentlyplaying out in the U.S. may have repercussions for years. First, the U.S.president-elect’s fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending and regulatoryreform plans have fueled an impressive rally in stocks. At the same time, astring of improved economic data, oil production cuts and expectations of aFed move helped spark a jump in global bond yields. What’s mostimpressive is how well the markets have received the Trump revolution.Markets have also proved “resilient” as there were serious concernspreviously that low levels of liquidity and overstretched valuations couldspread turmoil as bond yields rise and investors scale back their expectationsof continued low rates. Oil prices have surged since OPEC announced that itwill cut production for the first time in eight years. Saudi Arabia signaled itwould be ready to cut oil production more than expected, a surpriseannouncement made minutes after Russia and several other non-OPECcountries pledged to curb output next year. Taken together, the Organizationof Petroleum Exporting Countries’ first deal with its rivals since 2001 plus theSaudi comments represent a forceful effort by producers to wrest back controlof the global oil market, depressed by persistent oversupply and recordinventories. Moreover, Riyadh and Moscow were seemingly setting asidetheir historic rivalry as energy suppliers and the toxic politics of Syria toreassert their authority over the world’s very important commodity. The newUS shale business will need to be watched. It has still not yet been throughone full cycle of growth, downturn and recovery - but if market prices back up,US production may ramp up once again… (pg 1)
• In This Issue (pg 2)
• A Trump Bump … (pg 3)
• How Do You Figure? (pg 4)
• You Can’t Handle the Truth ! (pg 5)
• The Future… (pg 6)
• The Likelihood of Unlikely Events... (pg 7)
Contact information:
Abraham Gulkowitz
phone: 917-402-9039 email: [email protected]
The PunchLine...
3
December 16, 2016
A Trump Bump
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has improved by much morethan anticipated in the month of December, according to areport released by the University of Michigan on Friday. TheUniversity of Michigan said the preliminary reading on itsconsumer sentiment index for December came in at 98.0compared to the final November reading of 93.8.
The yield on the benchmark 10‐year Treasury note settled at a 17‐month high on Monday as a crude oil price rally lifted inflationexpectation and dimmed the allure of government bonds.
Central banks have exerted unusual influence on long-dated bonds, leading to flatter yield curves. With thatinfluence fading, the impact of factors like oil prices onyields suddenly looms larger than in the past.
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-familyhomes jumped seven points to a level of 70 on the NationalAssociation of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index(HMI). This is the highest reading since July 2005.
Latest = 2.59
The PunchLine...
4
December 16, 2016
How Do You Figure?
OPEC Has a Deal, But Will Its Members Cheat?
The PunchLine...
5
December 16, 2016
YouCan’t Handle the Truth…Let's Take the “Con” out of Economics
ITALY BANKING The prospect of political instability in theeurozone's third-largest economy whacked the euro and threatens todeal a serious blow to shares of struggling Italian banks such asBanca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, which is scrambling to drawa line under a pile of bad loans and raise capital from privateinvestors at the same time. The urgent problem facing the Italianauthorities right now is Monte Paschi, which is part-way through itscomplex plan to raise 5 billion euros ($5.3 billion) of new equity,almost 10 times the bank's own market capitalization, before the endof December. A debt-to-equity swap has helped bring in about 1billion euros; the bank still needs to find an anchor investor andoutside funds to cover the rest.
For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see:Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2012), “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” (http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf)
China’s foreign-exchange reserves extended theirdecline in November, plunging by $69.1 billion to$3.05 trillion. November’s drop was the fifthconsecutive month of declines and the largestsince January, when a sharp drop in the yuanrocked global financial markets. China’s foreignexchange regulator said the fall in reserves canbe explained by a combination of the centralbank’s activity and valuations effects.
Euro Area industrial production dropped 0.1 percent (m/m, sa) inOctober, following a 0.9 percent decline in September, and belowmarket expectations of 0.1 percent gain, according to Eurostat.Among the components, non-durable consumption goods andintermediate goods output decreased, while capital goods, durableconsumption goods, and energy production ticked up.
The PunchLine...
6
December 16, 2016
The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be
China Tightens Controls on Overseas Use of Its CurrencyAs an exodus of money adds to the pressure on aslowing economy, regulators are trying to put thebrakes on overseas use of China’s currency byincreasing the scrutiny of certain overseas deals.
U.S. shale oil companies are using the post-OPEC rallyto hedge their oil price risk for next year and 2018above $50 a barrel, bankers, merchants and brokerssaid, pushing the forward oil curve upside down. Therush to hedge -- locking in future cash flows and salesprices -- could translate into higher U.S. oil productionnext year, offsetting the first output cut by theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ineight years. As such, the producer group could endthrowing a life-line to a sector it once tried to crush.
EU DEMOGRAPHICS
The average expected working life in the EU has risen by 1.9 yearsduring 2005-15, to 35.4 years. However, life expectancy in theperiod 2004-14 (the last year for which we have data), rose by 2.5years to 80.9 across the EU. Since pensions, however funded,depend on people working, this suggests a growing shortfall.Swedes work the longest -- 41.2 years in 2015. They rank fourthfor life expectancy (82.3 years); a long working life matches along-lived life.However, Italians, whose working lives are the shortest (30.7years), rank second for life expectancy (83.2 years); their relativelybrief working lives support even longer periods in retirement. Yetthere seems no urgency: Italians' working lives have risen by just1.1 years since 2005; in Sweden, that figure is 2.3.
The PunchLine...
7
December 16, 2016
Engines of Growth…
The U.K. consumer confidence index dropped by 5 points to ‐8 in November (areading below 0 suggests pessimists outnumber optimists). The sentiment came inbelow market expectations of ‐4, as Britons grew more anxious about their financialsituation and the country's economic prospects over the coming months
UK Industrial Output Falls The Most In 4 Years
US AUTO MARKET: Hefty discounts during a robust BlackFriday weekend helped boost November U.S. auto salesbetween 4 percent and 5 percent, automakers reported whichcould catapult results this year above a record high in 2015.With two extra selling days in November, U.S. automakersoutpaced same-month year-ago sales on a volume basis, despitea 4.6% decline in the daily sales rate (DSR).. Strong light-trucksales were a key factor in November sales, as the industrydelivered 1,372,402 LVs - - 48,904 more than it did a year-ago,over the course of 25 selling days (vs. 23 last year). Year-to-date sales for the industry reached 15.783 million units, givingthe first 11 months of 2016 a lead of just 17,542 units over like-2015 heading into December - and keeping alive the prospectthat 2016 will break the single-year sales record set last year
OPEC has agreed to cut output, boosting the oil price, but upside prospects for fossil fuel prices appear limited
Economic limitations may exceed expectations in BrazilThird-quarter results were poor; both politics and worse-than-expectedcontraction will dampen 2017 recovery hopes Brazilian GDP contracted3.3%q/q, saar in 3Q below expectations… Investment demand, whichsurprisingly firmed in 2Q, tumbled 11.9%ar last quarter. Consumptionmaintained its steady decline.
Brazil's industrial production decreased at a faster-than-expected pace inOctober, figures from the IBGE showed Friday. Industrial production fell aseasonally adjusted 1.1 percent month-over-month in October. That wasabove the 0.8 percent drop expected by economists. Moreover, the latestdecline was the sharpest since May, when production had fallen 7.4 percent.
China stronger services activity growth contrasts with slight slowdown in manufacturing output expansion
Japan's consumer confidence declined for the second straight month in November to the weakest level in six months
India’s Services PMI declined to 46.7 in November, from 54.5 inOctober. This was the sharpest one-month reduction sinceNovember 2008 and the first contraction since June 2015.Anecdotal evidence pointed to a shortage of cash in theeconomy, and activity decreased in the sub-sectors of financialintermediation, hotels and restaurants, and renting and businessactivities.
Unlike Greece, Italy has a large economy that is ofconsiderable systemic economic importance. It also hasthe most compromised of economic fundamentals,which makes it singularly ill-prepared to weather aprolonged period of political instability. As such, ithas the potential to both roil global financial marketsand to derail the global economic recovery.
U.S. Becoming an Energy Superpower
Glencore: the oil market will be at the mercy of "a cat andmouse game" between OPEC and its U.S. shale rivals in thecoming year.
Auto subprime loan delinquencies becoming bigger concernThe data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance ofsubprime auto loans. This translates into a large number of households,with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on theirauto loan payments. Even though the balances of subprime loans aresomewhat smaller on average, the increased level of distress associatedwith subprime loan delinquencies is of significant concern, and likely tohave ongoing consequences for affected households.
Germany’s GDP is expected to grow 1.8 percent in 2016, slightly above the earlier estimate of 1.7 percent in June, according to Bundesbank. In addition, GDP growth is now expected to be 1.8 percent in 2017, above the 1.4 percent rate predicted in June.
Gulf Arab central banks have mostly followed the recent US rise in interest rates
The PunchLine...
8
December 16, 2016
The Likelihood of Unlikely EventsUncertainty is Widely Misunderstood…
Global DisorderCyber Risk Focus Rising for Corporates and GovernmentsThe need for cybersecurity is increasing as interconnectivity and technology progress► Yahoo sets hack record at 1 billion accounts
The United States received failing scores for itsefforts to prevent the laundering of criminalproceeds by shell companies, accountants and realestate agents, the Financial Action Task Force(FATF) said in a report released
Oil markets are entering a period of greater volatility after OPEC's decision to cut output, International Energy Agency chief argued
֎ Eurosceptics delight as Italy's Renzi quitsItalian voters have overwhelmingly rejected the proposed constitutional reforms Renzi staked his political future on
֎ Italy’s referendum casts shadow over banks’ bad loans
֎ Italy’s woes expose euro‐area governance failures
New rules allow Warsaw to favour its own ralliesBill allows government to ban demonstrations that clash with its own rallies
Divergence in the performance of members of the single currency is a real challenge
Foreign companies in China hit by exchange controlsSeveral European groups unable to make dividend payments abroad
Fears are rising that China’s outflows could intensifyChina’s foreign reserves fell by the most since January in November and the authorities have tightened rules on outflows
Russian growth cannot rise without unpalatable reformsThe president hopes to kick-start the economy amid gloomy official predictions of near-stagnation
Hack of Saudi Arabia Exposes Middle East Cybersecurity FlawsThe strike last month disabled thousands of computers across multiplegovernment ministries in Saudi Arabia, a rare use of offensivecyberweapons aimed at destroying computers and erasing data. Theattackers, who haven’t claimed responsibility, used the same malwarethat was employed in a 2012 assault against Saudi Arabian Oil Co.,known as Saudi Aramco, and which destroyed 35,000 computerswithin hours.
Russian central bank, private banks lose millions in cyber attacks
ThyssenKrupp secrets stolen in 'massive' cyber attackTechnical trade secrets were stolen from the steel production and manufacturing plant design divisions of ThyssenKrupp AG in cyber attacks earlier this year, the German company said
US credit spreads continue to compress in response to higher stock prices as complacency sets in…
Turkey’s economy shrank by 1.8 percent (y/y) in Q3, the first outright contractionsince 2009, following a 4.5 percent expansion in Q2, and below market expectationsof a 0.4 percent contraction. Policy uncertainty and the failed coup attempt in Julyweighed on consumer confidence and private consumption, while acceleration ingovernment consumption growth (23.8 percent in Q3, from 13.7 percent in theprevious quarter) supported activity.
A China crisis is a matter of timeCorruption is too deeply rooted in the party system for Xi’s reforms to work
Can We Ever Trust the Polls Again?
Brexit is set to weaken UK financial services industry
Power vacuum is a growing risk in BrazilThe effects of the Petrobras corruption scandal have engulfed the government and much of the political classLatin American unemployment rises as growth dropsEven a return to modest growth next year will have little impact on rising joblessness
Debt burden hangs over China's economic futureConcerns are mounting about the level of corporate debt in China's economy
US economic policy creates long-term risks for IndiaThe US interest rate hike sets in motion a new period of uncertainty for most emerging-market economies, including India
The PunchLine...
9
December 16, 2016
The Market Roar… History May Not Repeat, But It Often Rhymes
The PunchLine...
10
December 16, 2016
Venezuela’s government ordered all 100-bolivarbank notes out of circulation within 72 hours,amid a hard cash shortage and the scheduledrelease this week of bigger bank notes. “Therehas been a scam and smuggling of the onehundred bills on the border with Colombia. Wehave tried the diplomatic way to deal with thisproblem with Colombia’s government; there arehuge mafias,” President Nicolas Maduro said onstate television. Maduro signed a new emergencyeconomic decree to fight ”currency attacks” andan alleged “economic war.” With the value ofVenezuela’s largest banknotes reduced to a fewU.S. cents by triple-digit inflation and thecurrency’s collapse on the black market, thecountry’s central bank said it will begincirculating higher-denomination notes by Dec. 15.Venezuela’s consumer economy is largely cash-based and lines at automated teller machines arecommonplace, and sometimes cash can’t bewithdrawn at all.
Dislocation, Dislocation, Dislocation
The PunchLine...
11
December 16, 2016
Households – Brave New WorldU.S. mortgage rates rise to highest levels in over two years: MBAInterest rates on U.S. fixed-rate mortgages rose to their highest levels in more than two years, sending weekly home loan application activity to its weakest since early January, Mortgage Bankers Association data released on Wednesday showed.
US retail sales edged up only 0.1 percent last month after rising0.6 percent in October, the Commerce Department said. Saleswere up 3.8 percent from a year ago. Excluding automobiles,gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales alsonudged up 0.1 percent last month after gaining 0.6 percent inOctober
The PunchLine...
12
December 16, 2016
Household Hints
The PunchLine...
13
December 16, 2016
Careful Reading
US consumer credit outstanding increased $16.0 during October(6.6% y/y) following a $21.8 billion rise in September, revised from$19.3 billion. A $19.0 billion increase had been expected in theAction Economics Forecast Survey. Over the past ten years, there hasbeen a 46% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer creditand y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.Nonrevolving credit led the rise, with a $13.7 billion gain (6.6% y/y)after a $17.7 billion September increase. Federal government loans(37% of the total) rose 10.4% y/y. Finance company balances (23% ofthe total) fell 2.0% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25%of the total) improved 5.2% y/y, and borrowing from credit unions(12% of the total) strengthened 13.8% y/y.Revolving consumer credit increased a moderated $2.3 billion (6.0%y/y) after a $4.1 billion rise. Balances at depository institutions (84%of the total) grew 7.7% y/y. Finance company holdings (6% of thetotal) fell 6.8% y/y, while borrowing from credit unions (5% of thetotal) advanced 7.4% y/y.
The PunchLine...
14
December 16, 2016
Credit Matters - Know RiskMany Excel in Strategy, Few in the Management of Risk
Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not
New financial technology, or "fintech," poses fresh challenges for central banks in maintaining banking-sector stability, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said
Greek Banks Aim to Cut Nonperforming Loans to 20% of Gross Loans by Year-End 2019
INDIA… Demonetization is taking a toll on services, which fell in November by the most since the global financial crisis
Vanguard founder calls for politicians to re-examine ETFsJohn Bogle warns on turnover and fragility of fast-growing market instruments
An equivalence deal on Brexit may be the best the City can getAgreement would not require the UK to replicate the EU rule book in its entirety
The US government posted a $137 billion budget deficit inNovember 2016, a 112% increase from a $65 billion gap thesame month of the previous year, as outlays rose 25% to $337billion while receipts fell 2% to $200 billion.
Distorted credit allocationChina private banks struggle to upend state‐owned incumbents
China Halts Trading in Key Bond Futures Amid SelloffChinese authorities halted trading in key bond futures for the first time on Thursday, as panicky investors sold the securities on concern that a long, credit-fueled bull market was coming to an end
Japan Overtakes China as Largest Holder of U.S. Treasuries
Hong Kong Property Shares Turn Toxic as Mortgage Costs Spike
The PunchLine...
15
December 16, 2016
US Flow of Funds
The PunchLine...
16
December 16, 2016
Pumping Iron…The Old Economy Revisited
Mercedes-Benz has built an all-but insurmountable lead over rivalBMW in the race for the title of the world’s biggest luxury-car brand,and that sales momentum looks set to continue through at least 2018.
Warehousing, logistics demand rising on US-Mexico border
The nation’s largest privately owned less-than-truckload motor carrieris expanding its terminal network to handle higher freight volumesexpected in 2017, including more e-commerce-related freight.
Trucking Industry Hits Road Bump With Rising Diesel PricesFuel cost increases diminish fleets’ buffer from weak shipper demand
A weaker renminbi is sending China’s commodity speculators back into the game. Here are the Shanghai rubber futures.
OPEC Has a Deal, But Will Its Members Cheat?
OPEC signals larger 2017 oil surplus, unless cuts implementedOPEC on Wednesday signaled a growing oil supply surplus next year unlessmembers implement their deal to curb output from record levels and outsideproducers also deliver on cutback pledges made at the weekend
The PunchLine...
17
December 16, 2016
The DNA of BusinessReconfiguring Industries to Define Growth
Amazon Go is a new kind of store featuring the world’s most advanced shopping technology. No lines, no checkout – just grab and go!
Electric vehicles: amp it upMass adoption looms as costs fall but there will be no impact on oil demand for years
London home prices are having their worst December in six years, led by weakness in prime areas in the capital that is likely persist into 2017.
Panasonic is testing a robotic checkout in JapanThe self-checkout just got a bagging upgrade. In Osaka Prefecture, Japan, Panasonic hasteamed up with Lawson convenience store chain to trial a robotic checkout that does thebagging for you, Japan Times reports. The system is called Reji Robo (short for RegisterRobots), and debuted on Monday, December 12. Customers are given a basket equippedwith sensors that detect their items. When they reach the checkout, they place the basket ina holder. The good are tallied by the checkout, the customer pays, and the bottom slidesout of the basket to place the items in a bag, which the customer can then collect.
THE REVOLUTION HAS BEGUN
Uber self-driving cars hit the streets of San Francisco
The average sales price of an apartment in Manhattan isexpected to top $2 million this year for the first time, butprices are seen leveling off in 2017 after nearly doublingover the past decade. Prices were pushed higher by a jumpin sales of condominiums valued at $10 million or more,which skewed results, CityRealty, a real estate listings anddata website for New York City, said
Cyber risks rise in the corporate agendaFollowing several high-profile cyber-attacks over recent years, a growingnumber of corporations perceive cyber as a high risk. A new report fromSwiss Re and IBM covers the following three core themes:Risk awarenessMost corporations and insurers across the main regions expect the frequency and severity of cyber incidents to increase.48% of companies currently consider the threat from digitalinterconnectedness to be greater than other risks, which rises to 60% overthe next 10 years.Risk preparednessFirms who rank cyber as a high risk have C-suites who are engaged,especially in the hospitality, consumer products and auto sectors.Moreover, the majority of firms who rank cyber as a high risk, do not feelconfident that their workforce has adequate technical skills to cope. 34%of high-risk firms feel senior executives could be more engaged, while60% doubt their workforce has adequate skills to cope with the threat.The role of cyber insuranceDemand for cyber insurance is also expected to rise. There is a significantinterest from insurers to step up their cyber programs. Half of those whodo not yet provide cyber covers plan to do so in the next few years. SwissRe Corporate Solutions has partnered with IBM© to offer a holistic cyberinsurance solution that helps our clients improve the security cultureamong their teams, test their current IT systems, improve their ability toreact to threats and increase the resilience of their companies.
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK.N) said on Wednesday it completed its$2.6 billion acquisition of Virgin America Inc (VA.O), more than eightmonths after it was first announced, to become the fifth‐largest U.S.carrier. The four big U.S. airlines by passenger traffic are AmericanAirlines Group Inc (AAL.O), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N), UnitedAirlines Inc (UAL.N) and Southwest Airlines Co (LUV.N).
The Future of Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts (Oxford 2015), Richard and Daniel Susskind tell us:The shift [from professionals to increasingly capable machines] . . . can be characterized inmany ways: as the industrialization and digitization of the professions; as the routinizationand commoditization of professional work; as the disintermediation and demystification ofprofessionals. Whatever terminology is preferred, one can foresee that, in the end, thetraditional professions will be dismantled, leaving most (but not all) professionals to bereplaced by less expert people and high performing systems.
The PunchLine...
18
December 16, 2016
Real Estate and Construction Outlook
Hotels face slowing growth, rising costs
Revenue per available room grew 1.6% in October, whichmarked the 80th consecutive month of positive RevPAR, butalso the slowest monthly growth rate since March 2010. ADRalso had the lowest growth of the year, with an increase of1.9%. Occupancy dropped 0.3%, making October theseventh month of 2016 to report declines in occupancy.
The ink barely had dried on this year’s batch ofconstruction market forecasts when economists had totake a second look at their numbers to evaluate theimpact of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidentialelection, which brought with it a Republican-controlled Senate and House. Most economists areholding firm to their initial forecasts, saying it is tooearly to sort out all the variables.Dodge Data & Analytics is forecasting constructionstarts to increase 5.4% in 2017, after seeing growth fallto 1.3% this year.
Rising rents lift U.S. inflation
The PunchLine...
19
December 16, 2016
Will Life Ever Be the Same?
This publication is provided to you for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financialinstrument. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and itsaccuracy cannot by guaranteed. The views reflected herein are subject to change without notice. No one connected to this publication accepts anyliability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication may not bereproduced, distributed to any person for any purpose without express permission from TPL Advisory, LLC. Please cite source when quoting. Allrights are reserved.
