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TIWANA WALTONMENTOR: SHARON MONICA JONES
High Level Aviation Safety Risk Assessment
Outline
AbstractBackgroundAviation Risk AssessmentResearch Approach
Abstract
Prior methods for calculating aviation safety risk assessments were labor intensive. The purpose of this research is to find an alternative method for conducting aviation safety risk analysis in support of the portfolio assessment for Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project within the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) Program. A literature search is being conducted to find high level technology aviation risk assessment methodologies and structured data collection methods for use with subject matter experts. As a result of the literature search, strong consideration has been placed on applying the Delphi Method to conduct future aviation safety analysis using risk matrices and decision support software.
Background
NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe) Airspace Systems Program Fundamental Aeronautics Program Aeronautics Test Program
Aviation Safety Program Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM)
Project Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck (IIFD) Project Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC)
Project Aircraft Aging and Durability (AAD) Project
Background (cont’d)
IRAC Milestone 4.2.4 Assess IRAC portfolio by mapping IRAC research
to the potential loss of control scenarios. Identify overlooked safety issues involved in loss of control events. http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/nra_pdf/irac_tech_plan_c1.pdf
Five metrics within this milestone: Technical development risk Implementation risk Fatal accident rate Safety benefit/costs Projected impact of safety risk
Aviation Safety Risk Assessment
Previous Methods Used Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN’s) Logic Evolved Decision (LED)
Problems with Prior Methods Labor intensive Relies on historic data
Ideal Characteristics of Risk Assessment Methods
Short model development timeSmaller resource requirements (i.e., people,
money)Ability to model several technologies in R&D
portfolioSmaller data requirements/less
computational intensive => high level qualitative assessment methodology
Research Approach
Literature SearchList of Candidate MethodsReview Candidate Methods Against Ideal
CharacteristicsFinal Recommendations/Conclusions
Literature Search
Literature Search Conducted Compendex IEEE Explorer NASA library catalog
Literature Search was limited to materials within last 20 years Included conference and journal papers Also included text books
Candidate Methods
FAA Risk MatrixDelphi MethodDoD Risk MatrixFault Logic DiagramDecision Trees
FAA Risk Matrix
SBN Risk Matrix Definitions
Likelihood:
Frequently Occurs once every week
Probable Occurs once every month
Remote Occurs once every 5 years
Extremely Remote Occurs once every 10 years
Extremely Improbable Occurs once every 20 years
Severity:
Catastrophic Loss of aircraft aircraft, life and/or damage in excess of $1,000,000
Hazardous Severe injury or damage in excess of $100,000 and/or disruption of critical
services (NAVAIDS, etc.)
Major Significant (but repairable) damage to an aircraft, equipment or Significant aircraft, facility and/or minor injury
Minor Minor damage to equipment or facilities
No Safety Effect No injury, equipment or facility damage is possible
Future Work
Continue reviewing candidates against criteria
Make final recommendations about risk assessment method for IRAC portfolio analysis
Work with IRAC Systems Analysis Team to implement risk assessment methodology against IRAC list of technologies