Tình hình kinh tế thế giới Tình hình kinh tế thế giới Liệu có trLiệu có trượtượt sâu trong suy thoái? sâu trong suy thoái?

Hiroki ShimazuPhòng Nghiên Cứu Thị Trường

Kinh Tế Gia Cao Cấp

10 August, 2010

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

2

Summary

• Thời kỳ “đen tối” nhất gần như đã lùi lại đằng sau .

• Mặc dù còn nhiều lo ngại, nhưng sự hồi phục kinh tế đang được hỗ trợ bởi chính sách tiền tệ và tài khóa thông thoáng hơn.

• Những nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển sẽ đóng vai trò quan trọng trong kinh tế thế giới

• Chính lược “hiện thực hoá lợi nhuận” áp dụng sớm ở các nền kinh tế phát triển là một trong những rủi ro cho nền kinh tế toàn cầu.

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

3

Mặc dù thời kỳ đen tối nhất đã lùi lại đằng sau, nhà đầu tưvẫn còn lo ngại

Chart. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Sources: CBOE, NY FedNote: All dates don't correspond with the very events.

Gulf War（Aug 1990）

Asian Crisis（Jul 1997）

Russian Crisis（Aug 1998）LTCM Shock（Sep 1998）

Events ofSeptember 11th（Sep 2001）

WorldCombankruptcy（June 2002）

Lehman bankruptcy（Sep 2008）

Hungarian Crisis（Nov 2008）

(CY)

Greek crisis（May 2010）

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

4

Tăng trưởng kinh tế chậm ở Mỹ trở thành một trong những mối lo ngại lớn

Chart. US Real GDP Growth

-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Real GDP Growth RateMoving Average

（QoQ annualized, percent）

（CY）Source: US BEA

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

5

Mức cầu từ doan nghiệp tăng trưởng mạnh hơn, và yếu hơn từ các hộ gia dình

Chart. US Real PCE and the Business Cycles

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1991/1Q

2001/4Q

2009/2Q(estimate)

（trough＝100）

Sources: US BEA and NBER （CY）

Chart. US Real Non-residentioal Investment, the Business Cycles

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1991/1Q

2001/4Q

2009/2Q(estimate)

（trough＝100）

Sources: US BEA and NBER （CY）

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

6

Tăng trưởng kinh tế Mỹ không còn được hỗ trợ bởi việc chỉnh hóa hàng dự trữ

Chart. US Ratio of Manufacturers' Inventories to Shipments, IP

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Ratio of Inventories to Shipments (LH) Peak of RatioTrogh of RatioIndustrial production (RH)

（percent point） （YoY, percent）

Sources: US Census Bureau and FRBNote: Discontinued since 1993

（CY）

Jul 93

Dec 94

Feb 96

Feb 97

Jul98

Jul 99

Feb01

Apr 02

May 03

Apr04

31mon29ヶ月 33ヶ月

25monJan 90

Dec 92

42mon

22mon

Mar 05

Sep 05

19monOct06

Nov 07

Nov 08

25mon

24mon

26mon 29mon

33mon

24mon17mon

26mon

Jan 10

26mon

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

7

Chu kỳ kinh doanh có xu hướng dài hơn chu kỳ hàng tồn kho

Peak Trough Contraction Expansion T-T P-P

1945/02 1945/10 8 80 88 931948/11 1949/10 11 37 48 451953/07 1954/05 10 45 55 561957/08 1958/04 8 39 47 491960/04 1961/02 10 24 34 321969/12 1970/11 11 106 117 1161973/11 1975/03 16 36 52 471980/01 1980/07 6 58 64 741981/07 1982/11 16 12 28 181990/07 1991/03 8 92 100 1082001/03 2001/11 8 120 128 1282007/12 2009/6(?)

17 38 55 5610 57 67 67

Souce: NBER

Chart. US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

1854-2001 (32 Cycles)1945-2001 (10 Cycles)

Reference Dated Duration in Months/Cycle

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

8

GDP được kéo bởi việc đầu tư vào nhà ở trong ngắn hạn

100

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103

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107

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

100（「谷」＝ ）

（出所）米商務省、ＮＢＥＲより、日興コーディアル証券作成 （年、四半期）

Chart. US Real GDP Around the Shortest Expansion

7580859095

100105110115120125130135

80 81 82 83

Real GDPPCEResidential InvestmentNon-residential InvestmentExport

（1980/3Q＝100）

Sources: US BEA and NBERNote: Shadow indiates the recession.

（CY）

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

100（「谷」＝ ）

（年、四半期）

Chart. US Real GDP Around the Second Expansion

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

58 59 60 61

（1958/2Q＝100）

Sources: US BEA and NBERNote: Shadow indiates the recession.

（CY）

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

9

Các điều kiện thuận lợi được duy trì, đặc biệt với các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển

• Chính sách tiền tệ– Chính sách tiền tệ thông thoán hơn ở các nước phát triển có

khả năng lan rộng ra toàn cầu và bù đắp cho chính sách thắt chặt ở các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển

• Chính sách tài khóa- Mặc dù các nền kinh tế Châu Âu bắt đầu thắt chặt chính sách

tài khóa, các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển vẫn cần tiếp tục dùng nguồn lực trong nước đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng

• Thay đổi cấu trúc– Sự phát triển của tầng lớp trung lưu và thượng lưu ở các nên

kinh tế thứ 3 cũng là một yếu tố tích cực

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

10

Tốc độ tăng trưởng tại các nền kinh tế thứ cấp cao hơn ở các nền kinh tế cao cấp

Chart. Real GDP Indices

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

08 09 10

India IndonesiaBrazil KoreaAustralia NZCanada NorwayaUS FranceJapan SpainGermany ItalyUK

（2008/2Q＝100）

（CY）Source:OECD

Emerging&

Developing

Advanced

Commodityexporters

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

11

Các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển tiếp tục đóng vai trò quan trọng hơn

Chart. World GDP Growth Rate (Based on PPP)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Contribution of Emerging & DevelopingContribution of Advanced

（YoY, percent）

（CY）Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook Database

Projections

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

(GDPshare, percent)

Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook DatabaseNote: GDP is based on PPP

（CY）

Projections

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1019

90

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

（前年比、％）

（年）I MF（出所） より、日興コーディアル証券作成

I MF予測

Chart. Advanced vs. Emerging and Developing Economies

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45

50

55

60

65

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Advanced Economies

Emerging and Developing Economies

(GDPshare, percent)

Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook DatabaseNote: GDP is based on PPP

（CY）

Projections

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

12

Sự tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu càng thuận lợi hơn với khu vực đồng tiền chung Châu Âu

IncomeTerm

PriceTerm

Adj-R2 DW

0.747 -0.2531.457 -0.494

(31.955) (2.893)0.993 -0.0791.768 -0.141

(47.010) (0.775)0.436 -0.6361.146 -1.671

(16.870) (5.490)0.638 -0.9091.859 -2.650

(11.396) (8.304)0.583 -0.0961.471 -0.242

(14.553) (0.981)0.469 -0.5311.488 -1.683

(7.270) (3.356)0.823 -0.2321.420 -0.401

(6.125) (1.110)0.451

0.160

Spain

0.987 0.304

0.991 0.608

0.935 0.443

0.871

0.2760.971

EMU

Germany

France

Italy 0.316

Japan

0.952

0.963

Chart. Export Function Estimates

US

Sources: OECD, IMF, US Census Bureau, Statistical office Germany,Insee(France), INS(Italy), Cabinet Office(Japan)Notes: Periods;From 1999/1Q to 2009/4Q, Quataryln(EX) = Const + α ln(WTR) + β ln(REXPP)WTR: Volume of World TradeREXPP: Relative Export Price in USD

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

13

Việc“hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận” sớm làm giảm tính thanh khoản là một rủi ro với sự hồi phục kinh tế toàn cầu

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80（前年比、％） （前年比、％）

Chart. World Dollar

-10

0

10

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30

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50

60

70

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

（YoY, percent）

（CY）Source:FRBNote: World dollar = US Base money + US treasury securities in custody for foreign official and international accounts

This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at

present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.

14

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