57
Antitrust/Competition Commercial Damages Environmental Litigation and Regulation Forensic Economics Intellectual Property International Arbitration International Trade Product Liability Regulatory Finance and Accounting Risk Management Securities Tax Utility Regulatory Policy and Ratemaking Valuation Electric Power Financial Institutions Natural Gas Petroleum Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, and Biotechnology Telecommunications and Media Transportation Copyright © 2011 The Brattle Group, Inc. www.brattle.com The Tao of The Smart Grid Ahmad Faruqui, Ph. D. Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative Lansing, Michigan August 24, 2011 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily state or reflect the views of The Brattle Group, Inc.

The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Page 1: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

Antitrust/Competition Commercial Damages Environmental Litigation and Regulation Forensic Economics Intellectual Property International Arbitration

International Trade Product Liability Regulatory Finance and Accounting Risk Management Securities Tax Utility Regulatory Policy and Ratemaking Valuation

Electric Power Financial Institutions Natural Gas Petroleum Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, and Biotechnology Telecommunications and Media Transportation

Copyright © 2011 The Brattle Group, Inc. www.brattle.com

The Tao of The Smart Grid

Ahmad Faruqui, Ph. D. Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Lansing, Michigan August 24, 2011

The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily state or reflect the views of The Brattle Group, Inc.

Page 2: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

Outline

• Defining the smart grid

• AMI deployment

• Objections to AMI deployment

• Deployment of dynamic pricing

• Objections to dynamic pricing

• Sizing up the national

• Assessing utility-level costs and benefits

• Smart charging of plug-in vehicles

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 2

Page 3: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

DEFINING THE SMART GRID

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 3

Page 4: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

Some call it grid modernization

• The smart grid involves the introduction of digital technologies to the entire value chain for electricity that extends from the power plant to the customer

• The smart grid senses problems along the electric pathway before they arise and allows wiser use of energy by customers through two-way communication technologies

• Today, we are going to focus on the customer-facing side of the smart grid and use the following definition – Smart Grid = AMI + Demand Response + Dynamic Pricing +

Distributed Energy Resources + Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 4

Page 5: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

Ahmad Faruqui, Ph. D. Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative Lansing, Michigan

August 24, 2011

Ahmad Faruqui, Ph. D. Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative Lansing, Michigan

August 24, 2011

AMI DEPLOYMENT

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 5

Page 6: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

270, 33%

200, 24%125, 15%

100, 12%

80, 10%

15, 2%20, 2% 10, 1% 5, 1%

China

EU

USA/Canada

India

East Asia

Aus/NZ

Africa

Russia

Middle East

In 10 yrs

Smart meters are being deployed globally, as predicted by eMeter

Over 64 million Smart

Meters now in Place

Worldwide

43.3, 67%

17.3, 27%

1.5, 2%

2.0, 3%

0.3, 1% EU

USA/Canada

Aus/NZ

Rest of EU

All OthersToday

Million, % of total

Over 825 million Smart

Meters expected Worldwide

in 10 years

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 6

Page 7: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

Deployment is also underway in the US

7

Deployment for

>50% of end-users

Deployment for

<50% of end-users

(IEE, September 2010 - update underway)

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Page 8: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media

• In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart meters are almost fully deployed

• As of August 2011, approximately 22 million smart meters had been deployed in the U.S.

• It is likely that the number will rise threefold by 2015, representing approximately 50 percent of all US households.

• By the end of this decade, smart meters may be deployed to almost all US households

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 8

Page 9: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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OBJECTIONS TO AMI DEPLOYMENT

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 9

Page 10: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Four main objections

• Adverse health effects

• Loss of privacy

• Compromise of cyber security

• Higher costs

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 10

Page 11: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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All four objections are brought out in this strident video

• More than 300,000 hits since it came out

• The speaker, Jerry Day, comes across as the credible uncle next door

― http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8JNFr_j6kdI

• Similar views have been expressed in recent white papers from AARP and NASUCA

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 11

Page 12: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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For a rejoinder, check out these two videos

12 Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

― http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alXZFiRjwOM

• Highlights from the consumers symposium at Connectivity Week in Santa Clara

• PowerCents dynamic pricing pilots (Washington, DC)

― http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Tsky2xmW8&feature=related

Page 13: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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DEPLOYMENT OF DYNAMIC PRICING

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 13

Page 14: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Recent trends

• Pilots are being carried out in North America, Europe and Australia

• Commissions in the District of Columbia and Maryland have ruled favorably on dynamic pricing

• A recent survey of AMI business cases indicates that about half embody dynamic pricing in some form

• Another survey has revealed that dynamic pricing is one of the top five issues on the minds of utility executives

• The federal government has invested more than $4 billion in pilot and demonstration projects involving the smart grid, some of which involve dynamic pricing

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 14

Page 15: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

OBJECTIONS TO DYNAMIC PRICING

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 15

Page 16: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

Commonly voiced concerns

• Dynamic pricing is punitive because customers cannot respond to higher prices since electricity is a necessity

– Unlike other goods and services sold in the marketplace, demand for electricity is not price responsive

• Dynamic pricing will be injurious to the well-being of low income customers, senior citizens and people with disabilities

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 16

Page 17: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Mark Toney, Executive Director of TURN

• He voiced all these concerns at an event sponsored by the Kellogg Alumni Association in San Francisco earlier this year

• You can watch the conversation at this link:http://www.vimeo.com/20206833.

• Similar views have been expressed by Barbara Alexander, Nancy Brockway and others

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 17

Page 18: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

But dynamic pricing is about choice

Risk

(Variance in

Price)

Reward

(Discount

from Flat

Rate)

10%

5%

10.5Flat Rate

RTP

CPP

VPP

Inclining Block Rate

Seasonal Rate

TOU

Less Risk,

Lower

Reward

More Risk,

Higher

Reward

Super Peak TOU

PTR

Potential

Reward

(Discount

from Flat

Rate)

Incr

easi

ng

Rew

ard

Increasing Risk

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 18

Page 19: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

It empowers consumers to change their behavior, if they want to

19

• Significant portion of low-income household budget (16%)* provides incentive

• Manageable adjustments and high customer satisfaction

Source:PowerCentsDC Pilot Data *Cornell study on low-income households

Page 20: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Dynamic pricing encourages technological innovation

Source: http://news.lehsys.com/2009/06/google-power-meter-energy

Source: http://www.prlog.org/10527353-aztechs-in-home-display-

achieves-zigbee-certification.html

Web portal

In-home display

Programmable communicating

thermostat

Home area network

Source:

http://www.cisco.com/web/consume

r/products/hem.html#~consumers

Source: http://www.examiner.com/city-hall-

in-louisville/ge-to-make-new-smart-

washers-and-dryers-louisville

Source: http://www.zigbee.org/Products/CertifiedProducts/ZigBeeSmartEnergy.aspx

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 20

Page 21: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Customer segments have varying degrees of environmental and price sensitivity

21

Page 22: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Residential Trigger Points Differ

22

Source: NAP Communications Umbrella Action Guide, page 11

Page 23: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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There is a “Great Wall” of evidence on consumer behavior, coming from 109 tests with dynamic pricing

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 23

Page 24: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

When filtered by rate and technology, the

impacts yield a “Manhattan Skyline”

Peak Reductions by Rate and Technology

Pricing Pilot

Pe

ak

Re

du

cti

on

1 109

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

TO

U

TO

U w

/ T

ech

PT

R

PT

R w

/ T

ech

CP

P

CP

P w

/ T

ech

RT

P

RT

P w

/ T

ech

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 24

Page 25: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

The best-designed pilots allow us to infer the “Arc of Price Responsiveness”

Pilot Results by Peak to Off-Peak Price Ratio

Price-Only Results

Peak to Off-Peak Price Ratio

Pe

ak

Re

du

cti

on

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Best-Fit Curve

Consumers Energy

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 25

Page 26: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

In most cases, the inclusion of enabling technology boosts price responsiveness

Pilot Results by Peak to Off-Peak Price Ratio

Results with Enabling Technology

Peak to Off-Peak Price Ratio

Pe

ak

Re

du

cti

on

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Technology Curve

Price-Only Curve

Consumers Energy

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 26

Page 27: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group

Even low income customers respond

22%

50%

66% 66%

71%

84% 85%

100% 100% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

CaliforniaSPP: CAREvs. Average

PG&ESmartRate

2009: CAREvs. Average

PG&ESmartRate

2008: CAREvs. Average

CL&P'sPWEP

Program(PTP high):

Hardship vs.Average

HydroQuebec:

Low Incomevs. AverageResidential

CaliforniaSPP: Low

Income vs.Average

Pepco DC(price only):Low Incomevs. AverageResidential

BGE 2008:Known LowIncome vs.

KnownAverage

Customer

CL&P'sPWEP

Program:Known LowIncome vs.

KnownAverage

Customer

ConsumersEnergy: LowIncome vs.

AverageResidential

Pe

ak

Red

uc

tio

n

Average customer response

Note: For the PepcoDC pilot, the average residential response excludes low income customers that qualify for the RAD program

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 27

Page 28: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Fairness is a matter of how we look at the issues

28

Without dynamic pricing, frugal people with small homes subsidize consumers who are casual about their energy use during high peak hours.

Photo by Marshall Cetlin

Page 29: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

The Brattle Group Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Most are instant winners

29

Most low-income households benefit without changing behavior, even if they stay at home all day. All receive advantages of better reliability and lower operating costs.

Opportunity to win via simple behavior changes. Protections can be kept in place for medically frail.

Page 30: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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The Consumers Energy pilot shows that many low income customers benefit even without demand response

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Ch

ange

in A

vera

ge M

on

thly

Bill

($

)

Percentile

Low Income Bill Changes - RCPP+RCPR ($)

FLAT TO DP - BEFORE DR FLAT TO DP - AFTER DR

Net Bill Change per Customer: -$4.74Net Bill Change per Customer: -$1.67

Before DR: After DR:

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 30

Page 31: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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SIZING UP THE NATIONAL BENEFITS

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 31

Page 32: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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The smart grid provides numerous opportunities to promote wise energy use

• Over the next two decades, 2011-2030, we are likely to see the wide-scale deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), demand response (DR) through dynamic pricing and associated enabling technologies, and energy efficiency (EE)

• Over the following two decades, 2031-2050, we are likely to additionally see the wide-scale deployment of distributed energy resources (DER) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs)

• We have quantified the national benefits, using the iGrid 1.0 software

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 32

Page 33: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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The 49 dimensions of the smart grid

7 Value Streams

•AMI

•DR (dynamic pricing)

•DR (enabling technology)

•EE (in home displays)

•EE (continuous building commissioning)

•DER

•PHEV

7 Performance Metrics

•Metering costs

•Generation capacity costs

•T&D costs

•Energy costs

•System reliability

•Carbon emissions

•Gasoline costs

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 33

Page 34: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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We use two forecast horizons for established technologies and leading-edge technologies

• AMI – Will be the IT backbone of the smart grid

• DR – Time-based pricing and automating technologies can be offered once AMI is deployed

• EE – iGrid measures added EE benefits over and above traditional EE measures and programs enabled by the SG (e.g. information displays)

Established Technologies: 2010 - 2030

• DER – downstream solar, wind, storage, and other resources are already entering, but the smart grid will improve their economics via time-differentiated prices and customer or utility “dispatch”

• PHEV – with the SG, PHEV charging can be better controlled and both G2V and V2G benefits realized

Leading-Edge Technologies: 2010 - 2050

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 34

Page 35: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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The national landscape

• Number of electric customers

– 124.7 million residential customers

– 18.2 million small/medium commercial and industrial customers

– 0.2 million large commercial and industrial customers

• Peak demand of 761 GW

– Energy sales of 3.9 million GWh per year

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 35

Page 36: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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The direct value of AMI is from avoided meter reading costs

• Deployment is assumed to vary by customer class and occurs during the next five years

• Annual meter O&M cost estimates vary by customer type – Residential: $15 per customer per year – C&I: $30 per customer per year

• Over the forecast horizon, this will yield savings of $32.7 billion in avoided costs (present value)

AMI will also enable several other smart grid applications which are not quantified here

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 36

Page 37: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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The smart grid will enable dynamic pricing of electricity and lower peak demands

• Peak impacts are a function of the dynamic rate and central a/c (CAC) saturation: – 8.0 price ratio

– 60% CAC saturation

• A conservation effect due to pricing is also accounted for: – 1% residential, 0% C&I

• Residential and C&I participation rate of 25%

Multiplying the class participation rate into the average customer impacts gives the system impact

Customer-Level Peak Impacts from Dynamic Pricing

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Price Ratio (Peak Rate to Existing Rate)

Pe

ak

Re

du

cti

on

Residential with CAC

Large C&I

Residential w/o CAC

Small/Medium C&I

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 37

Page 38: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Automating technologies enhance effect of dynamic pricing

• Automating technologies lead to additional impacts that are incremental to those from dynamic pricing

• 30% of residential customers and 40% of C&I customers participating in dynamic pricing are equipped with these automating technologies

Residential Small/Medium C&I Large C&I

PCT 60% 100% N/A

Auto DR N/A N/A 90%

Gateway 150% 160% N/A

Increase in Dynamic Pricing Impacts due to Automating Technology

Assumptions based on review of multiple pilots including the California Statewide Pricing Pilot as well as research from LBNL

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 38

Page 39: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Avoided capacity requirements dominate the demand response benefits

• System peak reduction is 3.4% by 2030 • Annual CO2 reduction is 5 million metric tons by 2030

Assumptions:

• Avoided capacity = $75 kW-year

• Avoided Energy = $100/MWh

• Carbon price = $25/metric ton of CO2

Generating Capacity

81%

Energy16%

Carbon3%

Avoided Costs from DR (2010 - 2030)PV of Benefit = $33 billion

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 39

Page 40: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Avoided energy costs dominate the energy efficiency benefits

• System peak reduction is 1.5% by 2030

• Annual sales reduction is 1.4% by 2030

• Annual CO2 reduction is 61 million metric tons by 2030

Avoided Costs from EE (2010 - 2030)

PV of Benefit = $60 billion

Carbon

15%

Energy

72%

Generating

Capacity

13%

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 40

Page 41: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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US smart grid benefits add up to $121 billion (not counting DERs and PEVs)

Meter O&M Generating

Capacity

Energy from Electricity*

Energy from Gasoline

Carbon Reliability Total

AMI $32,747 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $32,747

DR (Dynamic Pricing) $0 $15,729 $2,951 $0 $635 $0 $19,315

DR (Enabling Technology) $0 $6,939 $1,359 $0 $292 $0 $8,590

EE (IHDs) $0 $3,534 $22,703 $0 $4,883 $0 $31,120

EE (Building Commissioning) $0 $4,443 $20,267 $0 $4,359 $0 $29,069

Total without PHEVs and DERs $32,747 $30,645 $47,280 $0 $10,169 $0 $120,841

Smart Grid Valuation Summary, 2010 - 2030

Present Value of Avoided Costs, Millions of $

* Also includes value of ancillary services for DERs

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 41

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Energy and ancillary services of DERs dominate the benefits, followed by reliability

• System peak reduction is 3.1% by 2050

• Increase in wind generation is 3.3% by 2050

• 200 minutes of outage per customer are eliminated

• Annual CO2 reduction is 34 million metric tons by 2050

Avoided Costs from DERs (2010 - 2050)

PV of Benefit = $23 billion

Reliability

34%

Carbon

5%

Energy and

A/S

43%

Generating

Capacity

18%

Assumed value of lost load to

average device owner:

• $5/kW-year for residential

• $100/kW-year for Small and Medium C&I

• $83/kW-year for Large C&I

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 42

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All together, US benefits of the smart grid add up to $397 billion

Meter O&M Generating

Capacity

Energy from Electricity*

Energy from Gasoline

Carbon Reliability Total

AMI $44,618 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $44,618

DR (Dynamic Pricing) $0 $25,080 $4,644 $0 $999 $0 $30,723

DR (Enabling Technology) $0 $11,064 $2,139 $0 $460 $0 $13,663

EE (IHDs) $0 $6,086 $38,559 $0 $8,294 $0 $52,939

EE (Building Commissioning) $0 $7,869 $35,396 $0 $7,613 $0 $50,878

DERs $0 $4,191 $10,088 $0 $1,113 $8,019 $23,411

Total without PHEVs $44,618 $54,290 $90,828 $0 $18,479 $8,019 $216,233

PHEVs $0 -$5,740 -$112,118 $297,418 $1,626 $0 $181,185

Grand Total $44,618 $48,549 -$21,290 $297,418 $20,105 $8,019 $397,418

Smart Grid Valuation Summary, 2010 - 2050

Present Value of Avoided Costs, Millions of $

* Also includes value of ancillary services for DERs

Note, PHEV benefits begin to accrue in 2011, although they are not shown in the two-decade benefits table

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 43

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ASSESSING UTILITY-LEVEL COSTS AND BENEFITS

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 44

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• Smart meters will significantly enhance the customer’s transactional experience with the grid, enabling her to see the following ― Bill-to-Date, Web Presentment, High Bill Analysis,

Move-in/Move Out Enhancements, and so on. ― Voluntary prepay plans and electronic payments from

mobile phone outside of normal business hours ― Security notifications in case of emergencies, storms,

etc. ― Faster repair and priority recovery for vulnerable

residents (after hospitals and first responders) • However, these benefits are difficult to quantify

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Smart meters will create several “Day One” benefits

45

Page 46: The Tao of The Smart Grid - Michigan€¦ · The Brattle Group US deployment, as predicted by Greentech Media • In a few areas of the country, such as California and Texas, smart

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Other benefits and costs have been quantified in an IEE whitepaper

46

Pioneer Committed Exploratory Cautious

Current meter AMR Operational AMI in process All analog All analog

Direct load control

DLC 1.0 ( < 1%

customers)

DLC 1.0 ( < 1%

customers)

DLC 1.0 ( < 1%

customers)

DLC 1.0 ( < 1%

customers)

Generation profile

T&D only, all

generation purchased

(nuclear, gas, hydro)

Mix of generation owned by

utility and purchased

(hydro, gas, nuclear)

Bulk of generation

owned by utility (gas,

nuclear, coal)

Bulk of generation

owned by utility

(coal, nuclear, gas)

Regulatory environment Approved to proceed Mandates for SG/RPS Approved to proceed Conservative

Climate change attitude Problem Serious Problem Problem Skepticism

Regional climate Moderate cold-hot Fairly temperate Extreme cold-hot Temperate-hot

Emphasis on efficiency

and conservation High High Low Low

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

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The Brattle Group

Customers choose their role

47 Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

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The Brattle Group

Summary results (using iGrid 2.0 )

• Assuming a service area of one million households, the total cost for a utility to invest in AMI and associated home energy management technologies ranged from a low of $198 million to a high of $272 million

• The AMI investment produced operational savings (resulting from avoided metering costs, automated outage detection, and remote connections) of between $77 million and $208 million, and customer-driven savings (resulting from energy pricing programs, in-home enabling technologies, and energy information) of between $100 million and $150 million

• The net benefits from investing in AMI ranged from between $21 million and $64 million for the four types of utilities

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 48

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The Brattle Group

Exploratory utility – customer engagement migration

49 Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

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The Brattle Group

Exploratory utility – components of costs and benefits (NPV, $ millions)

50 Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

-$223 M

$0

$156M

Net Benefits

$64M

$131 M

Costs Operational

Savings

Consumer-

Driven Savings

Legend

Technology Costs

AMI Installation

Remote (Dis)Connect

Outage Avoidance

Avoided Metering Costs

Active

Set and Forget

Utility Automation

Energy Partner

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SMART CHARGING OF PLUG-IN VEHICLES

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 51

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In the near term, plug-in vehicles could create a problem for some utilities

• PEVs will initially cluster in neighborhoods that are either green or affluent (or both), seriously straining the distribution system

• Will smart prices enable smart charging, as many have argued? – Only if PEV owners are 6 times more price responsive

than dynamic pricing customers will 50 percent of the “natural” PEV load shift to off-peak periods

– They would have to be 20 times more price responsive for 100 percent of the load to be shifted

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 52

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The Brattle Group

Is that likely?

• We don’t know but the question can be addressed by designing and executing scientifically designed pilots, just as those that were used to test the impact of dynamic pricing

• The pilots should involve random allocation of customers to treatment and control groups and before-and-after measurements

• A variety of time-of-use rates should be tested

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 53

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The Brattle Group

References – The Brattle Group, DRex, International Database of Dynamic Rate Experiments , July

2011. – The Brattle Group, iGrid 2.0, Software for analyzing the costs and benefits of the smart

grid, August 2011. – Faruqui, Ahmad, Peter Fox-Penner, and Ryan Hledik. “Smart Grid Strategy: Quantifying

Benefits.” Public Utilities Fortnightly. July 2009. – Faruqui, Ahmad and Jenny Palmer, “Dynamic Pricing and its Discontents,” Regulation,

Fall 2011, forthcoming. – Faruqui, Ahmad, Ryan Hledik, Armando Levy and Alan Madian, “Will smart prices result

in smart charging of PEVs,” Public Utilities Fortnightly, October 2011, forthcoming. – Faruqui, Ahmad and Sanem Sergici, “Dynamic pricing of electricity in the mid-Atlantic

region: econometric results from the Baltimore Gas and Electric company experiment,” Journal of Regulatory Economics, 40:1, August 2011.

– Faruqui, Ahmad and Sanem Sergici, “Household response to dynamic pricing of electricity–a survey of 15 experiments,” Journal of Regulatory Economics, 38:1, 2010.

– Faruqui, Ahmad, “Residential dynamic pricing and energy stamps,” Regulation, 33: 4, Winter 2010.

– Faruqui, Ahmad, “The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,” The Electricity Journal, July 2010. – Faruqui, Ahmad and Mark Toney, “Smart Meters and Smart Pricing,” February 17, 2011,

at http://www.vimeo.com/20206833. – Faruqui, Ahmad, Ryan Hledik and Sanem Sergici, “Rethinking pricing: the changing

architecture of demand response,” Public Utilities Fortnightly, January 2010.

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 54

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The Brattle Group

References (continued)

– Faruqui, Ahmad and Sanem Sergici, “Household response to dynamic pricing of electricity–a survey of 15 experiments,” Journal of Regulatory Economics, 38:1, 2010.

– Faruqui, Ahmad, “Residential dynamic pricing and energy stamps,” Regulation, 33: 4, Winter 2010.

– Faruqui, Ahmad, “The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,” The Electricity Journal, July 2010. – Faruqui, Ahmad and Mark Toney, “Smart Meters and Smart Pricing,” February 17,

2011, at http://www.vimeo.com/20206833. – Faruqui, Ahmad, Ryan Hledik and Sanem Sergici, “Rethinking pricing: the changing

architecture of demand response,” Public Utilities Fortnightly, January 2010. – Faruqui, Ahmad, Ryan Hledik, and Sanem Sergici, “Piloting the smart grid,” The

Electricity Journal, August/September, 2009. – Fox-Penner, Peter, Smart Power, Island Press, 2010 – Institute for Electric Efficiency, “The Costs and Benefits of Smart Meters for

Residential Customers,” Whitepaper, 2011, http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iee/reports/IEE_BenefitsofSmartMeters_Final.pdf

– Schwartz, Judith, “National Action Plan for DR/SG Communications Umbrella Action Guide—Part 1,” NAP Coalition, July 2011 http://www.napcoalition.org

– Wood, Lisa and Ahmad Faruqui, “Dynamic Pricing and Low Income Customers,” Public Utilities Fortnightly, November 2010.

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 55

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The Brattle Group Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative

Speaker Bio and Contact Information

56

Dr. Ahmad Faruqui has advised utilities in two dozen states on smart grid

issues involving the customer and testified before a dozen state and provincial

commissions and legislative bodies. He has designed and evaluated some of

the best known pilot programs involving dynamic pricing and enabling

technologies. The author, co-author or editor of four books and more than 150

articles, papers and reports, he holds a doctoral degree in economics from the

University of California at Davis and undergraduate and graduate degrees from

the University of Karachi, Pakistan.

Ahmad Faruqui, Ph.D.

Principal

San Francisco

[email protected]

Phone: 415-217-1026

Fax: 415-217-1099

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The Brattle Group

About The Brattle Group

• Climate Change Policy and Planning

• Cost of Capital

• Demand Forecasting and Weather Normalization

• Demand Response and Energy Efficiency

• Electricity Market Modeling

• Energy Asset Valuation

• Energy Contract Litigation

• Environmental Compliance

• Fuel and Power Procurement

• Incentive Regulation

• Rate Design, Cost Allocation, and Rate Structure

• Regulatory Strategy and Litigation Support

• Renewables

• Resource Planning

• Retail Access and Restructuring

• Risk Management

• Market-Based Rates

• Market Design and Competitive Analysis

• Mergers and Acquisitions

• Transmission

The Brattle Group provides consulting and expert testimony in economics, finance, and regulation to

corporations, law firms, and governments around the world.

We combine in-depth industry experience, rigorous analyses, and principled techniques to help

clients answer complex economic and financial questions in litigation and regulation, develop

strategies for changing markets, and make critical business decisions.

Contact Ahmad Faruqui at 925-408-0149, [email protected], or at The Brattle

Group, 201 Mission Street, Suite 2800, San Francisco, California 94105

Michigan Smart Grid Collaborative 57