The Role of Causation in History: Chaos, Free Will and Determinism

L/O – To identify the problems historians face when dealing with causation

Why is Causation important?•Every historical investigation

begins with the simple question – ‘why?’

• Identifying the most important causes of events allows us to decide how best to deal with it. This gives meaning to situations which otherwise would leave us feeling helpless.

Why is Causation important?• However… History is the flawed

product of incomplete evidence which is interpreted by Historians with their own values and preoccupations.

• So… historians answer the question ‘Why?’ in different ways, based on the evidence they choose to work with, and the conclusions they choose to draw.

TASK 1 – Read through the quotes

on causation on your worksheet.

Which one do you like the most and

why?

The Death of Billy Elliot•Billy Elliot (35) finished his last can of super-

strength beer and reflected on his predicament. He had been unemployed since the last factory in his area closed down a few years earlier. Like his father before him, he had taken to drink. Just recently, his wife had left him after finding out about the fling he’d had with Tasha Slappa down the road at a friend’s party. He told his wife that the summer heat had made him drink too much, but she told him to shove it.

The Death of Billy Elliot

•He decided to get another 6-pack of beer from the local off-licence. The government had recently cut back on unemployment benefits, but the bloke behind the counter, Akaash, had promised him a discount for being such a good customer lately. So, he grabbed his coat and put his shoes on.

The Death of Billy Elliot

•Just as he was leaving, his mother rang up to give him some family news. He had a quick chat with her, then left the house. As he strolled down the road, a boy came round the corner on a bicycle in a panic. Billy, who was still reflecting on what his mother had told him, was taken by surprise and leapt into the road.

The Death of Billy Elliot

•Sadly for Billy, a steam roller was passing at just the moment, resurfacing the road after it had buckled in the hot summer weather. The driver was still tired because his baby had been crying all night and didn’t see him. As a result, Billy was squelched into the shape of a pancake.

The Death of Billy Elliot• Having read the story, answer the

following questions:1. What three factors would you

pick out as being the most important causes of the tragedy?

2. What one further question could you ask to deepen your understanding about the tragedy?

3. Here are the three verdicts on the death of Billy Elliot. Take a class vote on which verdict you each find most convincing:

A B

Death by Free Will

Billy’s death was a freak

accident that has no

meaningful cause

Death by Marxist Dialectic

Billy was a sad victim of

economic forces

Death by Determinism

Billy was the victim of an

inevitable chain of circumstance traceable right back to climate and geography

The Historiographical View of Causation

Key Factor of change Timescale Big Question Concept of

Progress Details

Whig Historians(18th and

19th C)

Great Men & Actions of Individuals

Short-Term Where have we come from?

Peaceful, Evolutionary

progress

Thomas Macaulay had two key ideas:1. The driving force of

history was individuals acting with free will

2. History was a story of progress leading up to high point of the present age: the past was judged on present day values

Leopold von Ranke led a reaction against this by trying to show things how they actually were and assessing periods on their own terms using evidence =

historicism. Do you agree with Ranke or Macaulay more?

The Historiographical View of Causation

Key Factor of change Timescale Big Question Concept of

Progress Details

Marxist Historians(19th and 20th C)

EconomicsSocial ClassDialectics

Mid-Term Where are we going?

Violent, revolutionary

progress

Karl Marx said that economic forces

dictated the overall strategy of history;

individuals just provided the tactics

Like Macauley, he saw history as having its

own momentum, but felt that class conflict

not individuals provided it.

Does the collapse of so many communist regimes in the 20th century mean that the Marxist interpretation of history is worthless?

The Historiographical View of Causation

Key Factor of change Timescale Big Question Concept of

Progress Details

Annales Historians

(20th C)GeographySociology Long-Term Are we going

anywhere?Question

whole notion of progress

Fernand Braudel – argues that individuals and even societies are

merely short-term ripples on mid-term

waves subject to long-term tides.

It is these tides of history which provide

the driving force in history: climate change, discovery, floods etc…

Does this view of history essentially mean that it is pointless to study individual figures when trying to explain the causes of events?

The Approach of Philosophers to Causation• The three positions discussed are sandwiched

between two extremes of philosophical thought that reject the idea that human beings can influence the world around them in any meaningful way, whether

they learn from the past or not.

1. Chaos Theory – The idea that everything is down to chance events which we have no control over.

2. Determinism – The idea that everything is the inescapable result of what went before.

Conclusion• The only essential difference between

chaos and determinism is one of focus.

• A chaos theorist find an endless number of trivial accidental causes, whilst the determinist finds an infinite number of profound causes.

• Both make the same essential point: tracing any historical event backwards in a chain of cause and effect quickly leads to absurdity.

Conclusion• Not only is this chain endless, but there is an

endless number of chains.

• To add to the confusion, each event many have several causes, which in turn many have been caused by several events, each of which in turn may have several causes.

• Quickly, any attempt to sketch out the cause of an event will resemble not a chain, or even a series of chains, but a gigantic tree with an endless number of branches.

So how do we tackle Causation in essays?

1. Avoid the two extremes of determinism and chaos theory.

2. Instead, you should draw elements from both of these extreme. Historians will tend to occupy the middle ground between these two positions, both chronologically and thematically.

a) Chronologically – be broad ranging

• Like the determinists, historians will look at long term factors like the Annales School of historians who consider the impact of trends in geography and climate.

• Like the chaos theorists, they will look too at short term factors like Whig Historians who stress the role played by the ‘Great-Man’ coming along at the right time.

b) Thematically – be broad ranging

• By looking at a broad chronological range of factors, historians will also try to be broad ranging thematically.

• Many look at Economics (Marxists), Politics (Structuralists), Geography (Annales), Ideas (Hegelian), and the role of Key Individuals (Whig).

Result of this approach• By adopting the middle ground, we have to reside

ourselves to the fact that there are no final answers, only a cycle of questions and answers, leading to progressively wider understandings of history.

• However, by accepting that each event has a massive variety of causes, we run the danger of not making any conclusion at all!

• How do we get round this? We need to consider how we identify, group, link and prioritise causes.

Practical Approach to Causation – Categorising Causes

Content Causes• Social• Political• Economic• Religious• Military

Time Causes• Long-Term• Medium-Term• Short-Term

Role Causes• Trigger• Catalyst• Transformative• Pre-Condition

Importance Causes (Absolutely or Relatively)

• Necessary – If no X, then no Y• Sufficient – X was enough for Y

What is the best way to categorise

causes OR is a combination of methods best?

Practical Approach to Causation – Categorising Causes – Example 1

Causes of the First World War 1914-1918

PoliticalAlliance System, Imperialism as an political ideology: Empire was the only way to be a Great Power, Nationalism: created

the desire for power and security

Military HMS Dreadnought, Naval Arms Race between Britain and Germany, Growing size of conscript armies in Europe

EconomicGermany needed to secure new markets, Britain wanted to

protect existing markets, Russia wanted access to Mediterranean

SocialNationalism – created culture of superiority within and

between nations, led to belief that war was a valid policy option for states, led to assassination of Franz Ferdinand?

Practical Approach to Causation – Categorising Causes – Example 2

Causes of the First World War 1914-1918

Content Time Role Importance

1Political – Imperialism led to

competition between states & subjugation of smaller nations

which increased nationalist violence i.e. Serbia

Long-term Pre-condition

Sufficient for war to happen, made it more

likely

2Military – Naval Arms Race, raised fears about German

intentions, led to Alliance SystemShort-term Catalyst Relatively Necessary

for war to happen

3Social/Pol – Nationalism and

independence movements, new nations i.e. Serbia

Medium-term Trigger

Absolutely Necessary for war to happen,

triggered assassination

Practical

Approach to Causation –

Linking

Factors

Homework

•Using your guide to historiography, research one school of historical thought

of your choice.

•Write a 150 word summary, identifying what historians of that school believe

about why things change in history, what famous historians there are and any

famous works