34
GLOBAL MARKET ISSUES & TRENDS Christophe Pillot Director avicenne ENERGY Battery Market Development for Consumer Electronics, Automotive, and Industrial: Materials Requirements & Trends

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

GLOBAL MARKET ISSUES & TRENDS

Christophe PillotDirectoravicenne ENERGY

Battery Market Development for Consumer

Electronics, Automotive, and Industrial:

Materials Requirements & Trends

Page 2: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT [email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600

Battery Market Development for

Consumer Electronics, Automotive,

and Industrial

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2013• xEV market in 2013• Battery Market Forecasts

BATTERIES 2014

September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

Page 3: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2013

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

AABC June 20073

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)

AAB

Page 4: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

4

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2013

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

195 MPortable

PCs

>200 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2013

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2000 2013

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2013

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

Page 5: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2013

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

5

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments

Page 6: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013M

Wh

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2013

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

6

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

Page 7: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

19

90

20

00

2005

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

15

20

20

Bill

ion

US

$Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

54 BILLION US$ in 2013 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2013)

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

15

20

20

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

Page 8: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

IN 2013: US $ 54 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

8

Battery market in 2013 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

Page 9: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2013

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

9

Note: (1) 2013: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 00020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others

5 000 M cells – 39 000 MWh

12 000 M$ (2)

CAGR 2003/2013

+26 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

Page 10: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2013

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

5 000 M cells – 39 000 MWh

12 000 M$ (2)

CAGR 2003/2013

+26 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

10

Note: (1) 2013: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)

Automotives Tablets Power tools

Camcorders Digital camera MP3

Games E-Bikes Others

Page 11: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

11

CELLULAR PHONES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Cyl.83%

Pris.1%

Lam.16%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2013

Page 12: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

12

PORTABLE PCS

FORECASTS 2010-2025

0

100

200

300

400

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2010-2025 CAGR: +4%

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) IntelSource: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical

Cyl.83%

Pris.1%

Lam.16%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2013

Page 13: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2000

2005

2010

2013

2015

2020

2025

MW

hOthers

Household

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

13

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Page 14: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

14

HEV, P-HEV & EV

DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV MARKET

EV25 kWh

HEV0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICROHEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUMHEV

FULL HEV

P HEV10 kWh batteries

CITROEN C2, C3BMW 3Series

Fiat 500Hyundai i10Hyudai i30

KiaSmart for2

Toyota YarisToyota AurisVW Passat

…..

GM Saturn VueGM AURA

GM MALIBUHONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVICINSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUSTOYOTA CAMRY

FORD ESCAPEFORD FUSION

MILANGM YUKONGM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Page 15: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2013

>1,8 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2013

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2013

15

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

200

0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS %

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales

Page 16: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2013

BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOYOTA78%

HONDA12%

FORD4%

GM1%

HYUNDAI4%

VW

Total HEV Vehicles

+1,8M in 2013

HEV sold per year, M units per

car manufacturers, 2000-2013

16

TOYOTA

HONDA

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi

Page 17: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2013

BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,

HYUNDAI

OTHERS: FORD, GM, …

17

FORD

GM

HYUNDAI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

200

02

001

200

22

003

200

42

005

200

62

007

200

82

009

201

02

011

201

22

013

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

FORD GM

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

TOYOTA

HONDA

HYUNDAI0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

200

02

001

200

22

003

200

42

005

200

62

007

200

82

009

201

02

011

201

22

013

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI

Page 18: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

HEV FORECASTS

2000-2025

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

HEV

pen

etra

tio

n(%

of

tota

l car

sal

es)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 – 7M in 2025

18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included

Page 19: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE

VALUE CHAIN

19

The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components

Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected

Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)

Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful

Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM

On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate

1

2

3

5

4

6

Comments

Page 20: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

20

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity0 500 1000 1500

PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

SonyBYD

LG ChemJCI

A123SanyoEner1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASASB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)

ToshibaBlue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

BAKSAFT US

SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh

Page 21: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

SAFETY ISSUES

21

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projectsB

ac

kg

rou

nd

Mo

bile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

Air

cra

ft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering companywithout any authorisation by Toyota)

Page 22: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

22

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues

Page 23: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

23

Page 24: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

24AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV battery

cell Packaging material

LV batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &

Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL

for EV

0 €

2 000 €

4 000 €

6 000 €

8 000 €

10 000 €

12 000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

CellActive Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV

Page 25: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

25AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

BOLLORE BLUE CAR

Page 26: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2013-2020

LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

26

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year(1) Active materials only

2015* 2020*2013*0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1) 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

OtherMaterials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode

Page 27: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

XEV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9

2,5

5

7

0,15

0,5

0,65

0,37

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV

P-HEV

HEV

HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

LIB penetration in HEV

2010-2025

27

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025

NiMH LIB

Page 28: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2013-2025: +20%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2013-2025: +12%

28

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

hNiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

Page 29: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

2000 – 2025

Rechargeable battery market,

M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)

Rechargeable battery market,

M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

29

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto

Page 30: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Micro-hybrid batteries

30

Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)

Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehiclesold per year in 2020

35 3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

Page 31: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

31

Stand

ard

Leadacid

Batteries

2010

2015

2020

AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

riesSTANDARD CAR

88.5%EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

< 44%

MICRO HYBRID

> 50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERYLi-Air, Li-S, Fuel CellsLi-ion

Page 32: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

TAKEAWAYS

32

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMHIn 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ionP-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025EV expectations attract large Chemical companiesNew materials are needed to meet Automotive standardsHEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & valueA very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteriesNew LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-5%)NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%)LIB for xEV (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%)Others

25 B$

54B$

64 B$83 B$

> 100 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

20

10

13

52

32

(CAGR 2012-2025)

15

(Pack level)4,3

Page 33: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

“OTHER APPLICATIONS”

10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

33

Battery market in 2012 (M$)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries

1- Pack level

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Lead Acid LIB

Battery market in 2020 (M$)

> U

S$ 1

0 B

> U

S$ 7

B

Page 34: The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … 2000 2010 2012 2013 h THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Battery Market

Development for

Consumer Electronics,

Automotive, and

Industrial

BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014

NICE, FRANCE

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

34