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GLOBAL MARKET ISSUES & TRENDS
Christophe PillotDirectoravicenne ENERGY
Battery Market Development for Consumer
Electronics, Automotive, and Industrial:
Materials Requirements & Trends
Christophe PILLOT [email protected]
+33(0)1 4778 4600
Battery Market Development for
Consumer Electronics, Automotive,
and Industrial
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2013• xEV market in 2013• Battery Market Forecasts
BATTERIES 2014
September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2013
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
AABC June 20073
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ion
HEV
po
we
red
by
LIB
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007REALITY
AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
AAB
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
4
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2013
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
195 MPortable
PCs
>200 M Tablets
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2013
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2000 2013
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Ye
ar
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2013
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2013
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
5
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013M
Wh
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2013
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
6
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
90
20
00
2005
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
15
20
20
Bill
ion
US
$Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
54 BILLION US$ in 2013 – Pack level1
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2013)
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
90
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
15
20
20
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…
PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,
POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
INDUSTRIAL
• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others
• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV
OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2013: US $ 54 BILLION
Portable
Automotive
SLI
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000SLI
Automotive
Portable
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
8
Battery market in 2013 (M$)
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2013
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
9
Note: (1) 2013: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 00020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
22 000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
5 000 M cells – 39 000 MWh
12 000 M$ (2)
CAGR 2003/2013
+26 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2013
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
5 000 M cells – 39 000 MWh
12 000 M$ (2)
CAGR 2003/2013
+26 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
10
Note: (1) 2013: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
M $
Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
M $
Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2013 (1)
Automotives Tablets Power tools
Camcorders Digital camera MP3
Games E-Bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
11
CELLULAR PHONES
FORECASTS 2010-2025
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000 OTHERS
INDIA
ASIA
CHINA
JAPAN
EUROPE
USA
Cellular phones demand (M Units)
CAGR 2010-2025: +6%
Cellular Phones market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phones
trends
Laminates ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2010-2025
Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Polymer
Prismatic
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Cyl.83%
Pris.1%
Lam.16%
LIB cell format (Volume) 2013
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
12
PORTABLE PCS
FORECASTS 2010-2025
0
100
200
300
400
Emerging
Mature
Portable PCs demand (M Units)
2010-2025 CAGR: +4%
Portable PCs market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))
ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) IntelSource: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cells for portable PCs trends
Thinner cells
Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025
> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cells demand 2010-2025
Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Laminate
Prismatic
Cylindrical
Cyl.83%
Pris.1%
Lam.16%
LIB cell format (Volume) 2013
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2000
2005
2010
2013
2015
2020
2025
MW
hOthers
Household
Toys
MP3
Video Games
Digital Camera
Camcorders
Cordless Phones
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
13
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r
Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
14
HEV, P-HEV & EV
DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
EV & HEV MARKET
EV25 kWh
HEV0.6-2 kWh batteries
MICROHEV*
MILD HEV
MEDIUMHEV
FULL HEV
P HEV10 kWh batteries
CITROEN C2, C3BMW 3Series
Fiat 500Hyundai i10Hyudai i30
KiaSmart for2
Toyota YarisToyota AurisVW Passat
…..
GM Saturn VueGM AURA
GM MALIBUHONDA ACCORD
HONDA CIVICINSIGHT
MERCEDES S400
TOYOTA PRIUSTOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPEFORD FUSION
MILANGM YUKONGM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $
Fuel saving Vs. Cost
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2013
>1,8 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units,
worldwide, 2000 - 2013
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2013
15
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
200
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Mill
ion
TOYOTA OTHERS %
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
200
020
01
200
220
03
200
420
05
200
620
07
200
820
09
201
020
11
201
220
13
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2013
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOYOTA78%
HONDA12%
FORD4%
GM1%
HYUNDAI4%
VW
Total HEV Vehicles
+1,8M in 2013
HEV sold per year, M units per
car manufacturers, 2000-2013
16
TOYOTA
HONDA
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
TOYOTA HONDA
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2013
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,
HYUNDAI
OTHERS: FORD, GM, …
17
FORD
GM
HYUNDAI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
200
02
001
200
22
003
200
42
005
200
62
007
200
82
009
201
02
011
201
22
013
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
FORD GM
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
TOYOTA
HONDA
HYUNDAI0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
200
02
001
200
22
003
200
42
005
200
62
007
200
82
009
201
02
011
201
22
013
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
HEV FORECASTS
2000-2025
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
HEV
pen
etra
tio
n(%
of
tota
l car
sal
es)
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 – 7M in 2025
18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE
VALUE CHAIN
19
The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components
Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected
Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)
Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful
Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM
On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate
1
2
3
5
4
6
Comments
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
20
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE
>50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity0 500 1000 1500
PANASONICNISSAN Motor US
SonyBYD
LG ChemJCI
A123SanyoEner1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASASB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)
ToshibaBlue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen
BAKSAFT US
SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy
Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
SAFETY ISSUES
21
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projectsB
ac
kg
rou
nd
Mo
bile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
Air
cra
ft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering companywithout any authorisation by Toyota)
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
22
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
23
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
24AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
€ 8,250 -€ 18,100
€ 5,500 -€ 8,000
€ 50 -€ 300
€ 1,000 -€ 2,500
€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -
€ 400
HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100
€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -
€ 1,250
€ 150 -€ 350
€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -
€ 500
€ 1,500 -€ 3,000
Charger
DC/DCconverter
InverterRectifier
GeneratorInverter
HV battery
cell Packaging material
LV batterypack
CoolingSyst
HVCables &
Connectors
Batt.MagtSyst
Batt.Packaging
Manuf.
Overall
HV batt. CELL
for EV
0 €
2 000 €
4 000 €
6 000 €
8 000 €
10 000 €
12 000 €
Power Elec
Pack Manufacturing
BMS
Thermal Mgmt + packaging
Cell manu
CellActive Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf
HEV P-HEV EV
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS
25AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
NISSAN LEAF
GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5
BOLLORE BLUE CAR
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2013-2020
LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)
(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
26
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year(1) Active materials only
2015* 2020*2013*0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Warranty
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode (1)
Cathode (1) 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
OtherMaterials
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode
Cathode
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
XEV 2025 FORECASTS
0,9
2,5
5
7
0,15
0,5
0,65
0,37
1
1,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
car
s
EV
P-HEV
HEV
HEV, P-HEV & EV market
forecasts up to 2025
LIB penetration in HEV
2010-2025
27
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025
NiMH LIB
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2013-2025: +20%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2013-2025: +12%
28
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
hNiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
2000 – 2025
Rechargeable battery market,
M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)
Rechargeable battery market,
M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)
29
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
30
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
OptimisticScenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehiclesold per year in 2020
35 3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
31
Stand
ard
Leadacid
Batteries
2010
2015
2020
AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
riesSTANDARD CAR
88.5%EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
< 44%
MICRO HYBRID
> 50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERYLi-Air, Li-S, Fuel CellsLi-ion
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
TAKEAWAYS
32
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMHIn 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ionP-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025EV expectations attract large Chemical companiesNew materials are needed to meet Automotive standardsHEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & valueA very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteriesNew LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +10%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MW
h Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-5%)NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%)LIB for xEV (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%)Others
25 B$
54B$
64 B$83 B$
> 100 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
20
10
13
52
32
(CAGR 2012-2025)
15
(Pack level)4,3
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
“OTHER APPLICATIONS”
10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
33
Battery market in 2012 (M$)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries
1- Pack level
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Lead Acid LIB
Battery market in 2020 (M$)
> U
S$ 1
0 B
> U
S$ 7
B
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial
BATTERIES 2014September 24 – 26, 2014
NICE, FRANCE
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
34