The worldwide battery market 2012-2025 - AVICENNE worldwide battery market 2012-2025 C... · The worldwide battery market 2012-2025 ... Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery

Christophe PILLOT [email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600

The worldwide battery

market 2012-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT BATTERIES 2013

October 14 -16, 2013

Nice, FRANCE Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025

BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013

Nice, FRANCE

BATTERIES 2013 SPONSORS

2


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Nice, FRANCE

BATTERIES 2013: 80 SPEAKERS 14th October

Keynotes AVICENNE ENERGY REAL LI TORU AMAZUTSUMI GTAI US DOE ATL BASF TIAX

Materials UMICORE TODA KOGYO QING DAO TINCI SILATRONIX DREAMWEAVER JSR MICRO ZEON FMC

ESS ROLAND BERGER EDF 24M SAFT IECR EASY LI GTAI ENBW VERTRIEB

3

15th October

R&D KC MOLLER - FRAUNHOFER ICT I. BELHAROUAK - ARGONNE SHMUEL DE-LEON BRUNO SCROSATI – Elettrochimica ed Energia

C. MASQUELIER - LRCS D. AURBACH – BAR ILAN UNIV R. YAZAMI – NANYANG UNIV

R&D BIO-LOGIC CEA – LITEN INP ZBT

Safety ATL CELGARD EUROBAT ETTEPLAN

Micro Hyb R. BRODD POWERGENIX ALTAIRNANO A123

Safety LITHIUM BALANCE CADEX INTERTEK BATTERY MAN FRAUNHOFER ISE

Micro Hyb MAGNA ALABC MAXWELL

Safety SERMA INERIS RECHARGE

16th October

PORTABLE CONTOUR TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

INTEL ST ERICSSON

AUTO NATUREO PSA RENAULT SGC

AUTO FORD BOSCH US DOE ICC NEXERGY

MFG. BUHLER PEC SOVEMA MEGTEC KROENERT NETZSCH ENTEGRIS

R&D AKASOL IFP CNRS ZSW


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AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2012

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

4

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007 REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)


DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


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5

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2012

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

202 M Portable

PCs

>115 M Tablets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2012

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2000 2012

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2012

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


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THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2012

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

6

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments


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0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h


1990-2012

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

7



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1990-2012

50 BILLION US$ in 20121

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)

8

1- Pack level Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

90

20

00

20

05

2010

20

12

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

12

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI


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IN 2012: US $ 50 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

9

Battery market in 2012 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes


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LI-ION IN 2012

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

10

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M

Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh

10 500 M$

CAGR 2002/2012

+25 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value


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LI-ION IN 2012

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh

10 700 M$ (cell level)

CAGR 2002/2012

+25 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

11

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M

$

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others


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12

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING

DRASTICALLY

In 10 Years 80% price decreasing

despite a fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

Source: UMICORE, march 2011

18650 oversupply ratio is

increasing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

M c

ells

/Y

ear

Supply Demand Oversupply ratio

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

M c

ells

/m

on

th

BAK

ATL

Lishen

E-One

LG

SDI

MAXELL

SONY

PANASONIC

SANYO

Production capacity 2009/2011:

from 150 to 250 M cells/month

Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh


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LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

13

CATHODE SUPPLIERS

75 OOO T in 2012

Revenues: 1,85 B$

CAGR 02/12: +16%

ANODE SUPPLIERS

38 000 T in 2012

Revenues: 0,6 B$

CAGR 02/12: 14%

ELECTROLYTE

SUPPLIERS

29 000 T in 2012

Revenues: 0,46 B$

CAGR 02/12: 20%

SEPARATOR

SUPPLIERS

490 M m² in 2012

Revenues: 0,9 B$

CAGR 02/12: 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

> 11 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,5 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

> 14 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER SUPPLIERS

5 600 Tons in 2012

Revenues: 0,16 B$

CAGR 02/12: 16%

For each component: • Market in volume & value? • Material used by application? • Main suppliers / new comers? • Material cost? • Major trends? • Technology roadmap


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NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

BY CHEMISTRY

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2012

14

(…)

LEADERS:

Nichia 23%

Umicore 21%

Others 8%

Internal 4%

B&M 17%

Easpring 10%

Reshine 10%

Other China

7%

LCO – 29 KT (2012) NMC1 – 27 KT (2012)

Nichia 23%

Umicore 27%

Others 19%

Internal 5%

L&F 11%

Other China 15%

LMO – 13 KT (2012) LFP – 5 KT (2012)

Nichia 8% Other

Japan 16%

Internal 6%

Nikki 18%

Qyanyun 15%

Other China 37%

Tatung 12%

Aleees 18%

Other Japan

5%

Internal 6%

Clariant 5%

A123 10%

Formosa 8%

Valence 6%

Others 30%

1- Including NCA


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CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2012: 75 000 Tons

15

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume

HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB

EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

LCO 39%

NMC 30%

NCA 5%

LMO 18%

LFP 8%

Cathode active materials in

2025: > 330 000 Tons

LCO 24%

NMC 37% NCA

7%

LMO 11%

LFP 21%


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16

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

38 000 TONS IN 2012

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2011

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Meso-Phase

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


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ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012

0% 50% 100%

SANYO

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Others

ARTIFICIAL

MCMB

NATURAL

Amorphous

METAL

17

Natural graphite become a commodity

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Natural Graphite

61%

Artificial Graphite

28%

MCMB 6%

Amorphous 3%

Si or Sn Type 1%

LTO 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon

Soft Carbon

Graphite

Capacity (/g)

400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2012->2020

30 -> 25 $/kg

25->20 $/kg

15 -> 10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA

HITACHI HITACHI BTR

& many others


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LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012

LIB separator market, M$,

CAGR 2000/2012: +18%

LIB Separator supplier, market

share in 2012

18

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

M$

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)


ASAHI 26%

TORAY 23%

SUMITOMO 1%

ENTEK 3%

SK 13%

CELGARD 19%

UBE 7%

Others 8%


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ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

29 000 TONS IN 2012

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2000/2012: +20%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2012

19

Ube 9%

Mitsubishi 21%

In-House 3%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 16%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-

Huarong 15%

Jinniu 10%

Capchem 9%

Shanshan 9%

Others 5%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ton

s

Cellular Portable PC Tablets

Power tools E-Bikes Auto

Others


Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU


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LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012 Electrolyte Battery makers &

suppliers relation in 2012

Electrolyte maker sales

2005-2012

20 Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel

0 2000 4000 6000

UBE

Mitsubishi Chem

In-house

Tomiyama

PANAX-ETEC

GTHR

Mitsui

BASF

Jinniu

Cap Chem

ShanShan

Soulbrain

Tons

Panasonic SDI LG Chem

BYD Lishen Maxell

ATL BAK A123

AESC YUASA (LEJ) Yuasa (BEC)

TOSHIBA Others

Mitsubishi

PANAX-ETEC1

ZGH

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Ton

s

Ube

Mitsubishi

In-House

MITSUI

Tomiyama

PANAX-ETEC

ZGH

Jinniu

Capchem

Shanshan


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TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

21


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BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2011-2025

Portable PCs, net-book Cellular Phones, Smartphones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Energy Storage (Grid, residential) UPS Telecom Forklift, automatic handling equipment Medical Others…

Applications covered Parameters analysis

22

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor

2011 -2020 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


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23

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses


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24

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2012-2025

0

100

200

300

400

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2010-2025 CAGR: +4%

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical


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2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2000

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

MW

h

Others

Householddevices

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

25

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses


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HEV FORECASTS

2012-2025

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

HEV

pen

etra

tio

n (

% o

f to

tal c

ar s

ales

)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 – 7M in 2025

26

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included


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27

LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR

HEV, P-HEV & EV

Recall slash battery profit

LIB >>> NiMH but

SAFETY & COST ISSUES

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion

Volts 201.6 201.6

Cells 168 (28*6) 56

Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah

Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh

Weight 38 kg 25 kg

T°C Range + +

Cyclability + ++

Safety

Cost

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average


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SAFETY ISSUES

28

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Bac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

A

irc

raft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)


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SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

29

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues


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LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE

VALUE CHAIN

30

The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components

Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected

Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)

Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful

Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM

On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate

1

2

3

5

4

6

Comments


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31

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500

PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

SonyBYD

LG ChemJCI

A123SanyoEner1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASASB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)

ToshibaBlue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

BAKSAFT US

SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh


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BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

32 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV battery

cell Packaging material

LV batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &

Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL

for EV

0 €

2 000 €

4 000 €

6 000 €

8 000 €

10 000 €

12 000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV


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LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

33 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

BOLLORE BLUE CAR


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LI-ION BATTERY COST

2011-2020

LIB cell average cost

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

34

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

2015* 2020* 2011* 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode cost

Cathode cost 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

OtherMaterials

Electrolyte

Separator

Anode

Cathode


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EV FORECASTS

2011-2020

EV sold, in million units,

worldwide, 2010 - 2020

EV impact on the LIB & raw

material market is HUGE

35

IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Power Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012


IIT (MARCH 2010)


DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


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TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2012-2025: +20%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2012-2025: +12%

36

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV


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RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

2000 – 2025

Rechargeable battery market,

M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)

Rechargeable battery market,

M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

37

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto


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35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Micro-hybrid batteries

38

Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)

Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2


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HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

39

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


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TAKEAWAYS

40

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)

NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%)

LIB for xEV (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%)

25 B$

50B$ 60 B$

80 B$

100 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

20

10

13

52

32

(CAGR 2012-2025)

15

(Pack level)


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THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

41

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