The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

in Ethiopia

EIAR

Addis Ababa

December 4, 2014

IFPRI

I. Country program, called the Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP)

II. Impact evaluations of large investment programs (PSNP, AGP, Feed-the-Future,…); linked with ESSP

III. IFPRI’s activities in support of the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA)

IV. Other activities (HABP, MFS (Dutch project), Alive and Thrive, Africa Rising, etc.)

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I. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP)

Joint project of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI)

I. Research: To generate evidence-based and applied policy research to fill key knowledge gaps

II. Capacity building: To strengthen the capacity of Ethiopian policy research institutions through targeted training programs and collaborative engagements

III. Outreach: To build a stronger integrated knowledge support system to underpin food policy analysis

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I. ESSP

1. Agricultural productivity, technology adoption, and agricultural transformation

a. Mechanization and its potential in Ethiopia

b. Agricultural productivity and technical change

c. Determinants of fertilizer and modern input use

d. Bio-fortification and its potential in Ethiopia

Harvest Plus-led project.

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I. ESSP

2. Agricultural markets, value chains, and agro-industry

a. Teff value chain

1/ Determinants of teff productivity

2/ Agronomy of teff

3/ Teff marketing

4/ Health and nutritional benefits of teff

5/ Impact of improved teff productivity on Ethiopia’s economy

6/ Teff consumption patterns

7/ Policy suggestions to improve the sector’s performance

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I. ESSP

b. Coffee value chain

Did large surveys in the beginning of 2014. Topics covered:

1. Coffee productivity

2. Pricing in the global coffee value chain

3. Value addition and the impact of wet mills

4. Who benefits from Voluntary Sustainability Standards?

5. Dynamics in the coffee value chain

6. ECX and the coffee value chain

7. Structure and performance of export markets

8. Required policies for improved coffee sector performance

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I. ESSP

3. Risk, insurance, and investment

a. Analysis of the impact of weather insurance

b. Impact of the PSNP on household wealth dynamics and poverty

c. Effects of weather shocks on child cognitive development

4. Land and water management

a. Land certification, productivity and investment

b. Watershed modeling

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I. ESSP

5. Poverty and safety nets

a. Impact of the PSNP on child outcome and nutritional indicators

b. Poverty dynamics

c. General economy effects of the PSNP

d. Agricultural production and children’s diets

6. Rural transformation and non-crop income

a.Rural roads and their impact

b.Livestock income, markets and the leather industry

c. Off-farm income in rural areas

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I. ESSP

7. Economic analysis in support of the new GTP Analysis of future potential drivers for growth and structural change; development of scenarios for the new GTP. Use CGEs to model role of employment shifts; tax/fiscal scenarios; expansion of role of international trade; and changes in macro-structureFurther analysis for GTP of particular issues such as: 1/ poverty analysis; 2/ consideration of labor markets; 3/ tax/fiscal policy changes.

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II. Impact evaluations

- AGP impact evaluation

Baseline in 2011; 1st impact survey in 2013- PSNP impact evaluation

Baseline in 2006; 5st impact survey planned in 2014;

- Feed the Future (FtF) impact evaluation

Baseline in 2013; 1st impact survey in 2015- Pastoralist project impact evaluation

First survey planned in 2015

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III. Support to the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA)

a. Seed Sector

b. Fertilizer value chain

c. Cooperatives

d. Soil health/fertility management

e. Impact analysis of wheat initiative

f. Extension and research

g. Output markets (maize, wheat, barley)

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IV. Other themes

Household Asset Building Program (HABP) – Eastern and Southern Africa Office (ESAO) project

MFS II Dutch Project – ESAO project Africa Rising Alive and Thrive

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Potential for future support and collaboration

1. Number of issues where we collaborate with EIAR - Seed sector- Mechanization- Agronomy of teff- Harvest Plus

2. Opportunities- Understanding the current status of intensification of

agriculture in Ethiopia

More in-depth analysis of the with large-scale household surveys collected under AGP and FTF

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Potential for future support and collaboration

2. Opportunities-Farm-level economic analysis and climate change simulations

Study samples of typical Ethiopian farming households and undertake economic analysis and how climate shocks will affect them-Economy-wide modeling

How will climate change affect Ethiopia’s economy and what will be impact of mitigating policies-Impact analysis of new technologies and policy change

Impact analysis at the farm level by using RCT and/or analysis of impacts of policy changes; to be defined

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