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The Impact of H1N1 Flu Cluster Geometry on Appropriate
Intervention Methods in Developed versus Developing
Nations
Krishna Bhogaonker
The Focus
The Puzzle: How do systematic differences in the shape and size
of flu clusters between developed and developing nations affect
the choice of public health interventions and planning.
Significance: Differences in disease cluster structures impacts
the efficiency and efficacy of public health interventions. By
understanding national patterns in infectious disease clusters,
countries can make better epidemic response plans.
Study: I compare flu cluster size, shape, and progression in the
US and India to identify systematic patterns of variation. I also
narrow my focus to comparable cities Pune, India and San Diego,
California.
Roadmap
• Demonstrate global Flu spread
• Compare the structure of Flu clusters in the US and India
• Compare the structure of Flu clusters in San Diego versus Pune.
• Compare hospital coverage of Flu cases in San Diego versus Pune.
• CONCLUSION: The structure of a flu cluster influences the effectiveness of public health interventions.
In 2009, Pandemic Swine Flu swept the world. Both
developed and developing nations were affected.
Inset map, Geocoding, Aggregating Attributes: incidents = confirmed + suspectedBy Krishna B, Source Flutracker
Hotspot and Structural Analysis of India Flu Clusters
Modeling, Hotspots, Charts + Graphs, R mashup, measurment analysisBy Krishna B, Source Flutracker
Hotspot and Structural Analysis of US Flu Clusters
By Krishna B, Source Flutracker Modeling, Hotspots, Charts + Graphs, R mashup, measurment analysis
Case Comparison: San Diego versus Pune
National comparisons obscure data patterns because of
scale.
Comparing 2 similar cities provides a better sense of
clustering patterns.
Pune and San Diego are similar:
Both relatively coastal
Both 2-3 hours from large metropolitian city that was also a flu
cluster
Both are separated from the neighboring metropolitian city by
mountains
Similar population balance between metro city and secondary
city.
Flu Incidence in San Diego and Pune
Pune Hotspot Analysis
San Diego Hotspot Analysis
Explanation: Effective hospital buffer size is different in developed versus developing nations
Conclusion
• Implications for Policy: Developing nations need to extend hospital buffer sizes by mobile clinics.
• Using the data model provided, we can estimate the optimal buffer size for each developing nation hospital to produce cluster covering.