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The Greek EconomyRecent Developments
The Greek EconomyRecent Developments
Elias Ioakimoglou Elias Ioakimoglou 2/10/20002/10/2000
A. The real economy
GDP and Productivity, Investment, Labour Cost and
Profitability
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Fact 1. From Crisis to Recovery
Moving Average (9 terms)
Annual % changes
GDP Growth 1970-2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Annual % changes
Labour Productivity
Moving Averages (9 terms)
Fact 2. The revival of productivity...
GDP Growth 1970-2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
As a % of GDP
2000-2001: OECD Forecast
...due to a rise in Fixed Private Investment
5,5 5,8 5,6
11
9,5
6,6
13,7
5,9
7,1
6,1
9,7
8,2 8,5 8,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
B DK D GR E F IRL I NL A P FIN S UK
As a % of GDP 2000-2001: DGII Forecast
Investment in Machinery 1996-2000
50
52
54
56
58
60
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Labour Compensation as a % of GDP
Business sector
Fact 3. Labour Cost is decreasing...
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Gross Profit as a % of Fixed Capital (%)
Manufacturing
...and Profitability is rising
Business Sector
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
2000-2001: Forecast
Fact 4. Domestic Demand is accelerating
Annual % changes
Domestic Demand
Profitability
PrivateInvestment
Labour Cost
Productivity
Wages
GDP
PublicInvestment
EUfunds
Unemployment + Flexibility in the labour market
Structural Change
The recovery of the late ’90s
Capital devaluationOrganisational change
B. Nominal Convergence
Inflation, Public Deficit, Interest Rates and the Stock
Exchange
Inflation is falling
The Public Deficit below 2%
Interbank Interest Rates
9,1
8,58,4
9,8
10,8
8
9
10
11
(%)
1999 2000
Number and Market Value of Listed Companies on the Athens Stock Exchange
C. The Social Deficit
Unemployment and Inequality
3.200
3.400
3.600
3.800
4.000
4.200
4.400
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Thousand
Employment
Fact 5. The Labour Force is growing faster than Employment
Labour Force
8 8,27,8
7,4 7,4 7,7 7,57
7,7
8,7
9,7 9,610
10,3 10,210,8
11,7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
% of the Labour Force
...and Unemployment is increasing
Inequality Index
Labour Cost and Inequality Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
P Gr E IRL UK I D A B Fr NL DK
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Unit Labour Cost (EU=100)
