The German experience on the way to 100% renewabels...The German experience on the way to 100% renewabels Hans-Josef Fell President of Energy Watch Group Member of German Parliament

The German experience on the way to 100% renewabels

Hans-Josef FellPresident of Energy Watch Group

Member of German Parliament 1998-2013

Naypyitaw, Myanmar July 12th, 2017

Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)

President of Energy Watch Group



Political challenges

Climate warming Peak oil, peak coal, energy security Nuclear and environmental disasters Oil wars, poverty, refugees, economic

crises

All these challenges are connected withfossil and nuclear energies

Renewables will solve these problems





Where oil is, is mostly war





COP 21: Stop Climate warming at 1,5 C

The better choice is:

Global Cooling

But at todays warming at 1,3°C is already unacceptable: aridity and forest fires, floods and storms, sea level rising





ECMWF: Global Warming 2016: 1,3 °C

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2017/2016-was-warmest-year-yet-ecmwf-data-show

Paris goal 1,5°C possibly reached at 2020 ?What to do then? More Emissions?





The crises of climate warming & energydependency can only be solved by two

parallel strategies:1. Stop greenhouse gas emissions

(not only a reduction of emissions) switch to 100% renewables

completely stop the use of fossil and nuclear energies in energy, chemistry, transport, agriculture

2. Take out carbon from the atmosphere convert plants to humus soil (biocoal)

reforest big areas, green the deserts

organic agricultureThe Target must be 330 ppm CO₂

This leads to global cooling, instead of global warming





Source : FVS/DLR

Worldwide Potential Of RenewableEnergy





Political support stimulates renewable growthShare of renewable electricity in Germany

3.44.7

6.2 6.67.7 7.6

9.3 10.211.6

14.2 15.116.3 17

20.4

23.725.2

27.4

31.5 31.7

35.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Shar

e in

Per

cent

Outlook in 2000 for2010:

Source: BMWi, AGEE-Stat, BEE





Why had Germany the most successfulindustrial developement of renewable energy

Laws by former red-green Parliament since 1999: •Feed in tariff for Renewables (EEG) •Nuclear phase out law•tax exemption for biofuels, •strengthened research and education budget, •subsidies for renewables,

Active promotion by people, companies, NGOs

Hans-Josef Fell – MdB (1998-2013)Präsident der Energy Watch Group

Annual electricity demand 2011:ca. 1.600.000 kWhAnnual supply through RE 2011:ca. 7.600.000 kWh

Annual heat demand 2011ca. 3.200.000 kWhAnnual supply through REN 2011:ca. 2.880.000 kWh

7 Years ´Energiewende´ in GroßbardorfInhabitants financed it with cooperative





Complete Concepts for 100% Renewables

Renewable energy for: heat, cooling, mobility, electricity, industry

Wind, solar, hydro, waves, bioenergy, geothermal

Storage: hydro pump; batteries, power to gas; ice (heat) storage

Big data; smart homes; smart cities

Hybrid; electricvehicles



Germany

Nov 2016, COP22, Marrakech:48 countries (Climate Vulnerable Forum) decided for 100% RE target

More Countries e.g.: Denmark; Sweden; Costa Rica; Iceland; Cape Verde

Cities with 100% RE target e.g.:Barcelona; Masdar City; Munich; Masheireb; Downtown Doha; Vancouver; San Francisco; Copenhagen; Sydney;

Companies with 100% RE target e.g.:Google, Coca-cola, Ikea, Wallmart



Renewable Energy as a Job Engine in Germany

Nuclear sector

38.000

Source: BEE /BMU 2011





Avoided Costs by Renewables in Germany in 2012

Source: BEE

0

5

10

15

20

Avoided Import Costs 2012:10 bn. €

Avoided External Costs 2012: 11 bn. €

Renewable EnergySources Act Levies2012: 14 bn. €

22 bn. €

14 bn. € exta costs RE

in bn. €





German reality: expansion of green power improves grid stability

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Blackout of power grid in minutes (SAIDI)

Amount of green power in %

source: Bundesnetzagentur (2015); http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Sachgebiete/ElektrizitaetundGas/Unternehmen_Institutionen/Versorgungssicherheit/Stromnetze/Versorgungsqualität/Versorgungsqualität-node.html ; BMU, BEE, bdew





source: EEG 2004, EEG 2009, EEG 2014, BNetzA

in €Cent

Solarpower Gets Cheaper(Development of Feed-in Tariffs for photovoltaic roof systems above 1 MW)





PV and Wind now cheapest Energy

Quelle: https://www.pv-magazine.de/2017/07/05/studie-photovoltaik-und-windkraft-spaetestens-2030-in-allen-g20-staaten-guenstigste-stromquelle/





WEO Photovoltaic: Projections and Reality

Source Energy Watch Group (2015): The projections for thefuture and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook forsolar PV and other renewable energy technologies.

Reality exceeded all projections of WEO by far. PV, Wind grow much faster than by IEA projected.Nuclear and fossil grow much less than projected





Climate Protection and Energy Security Policies

Promoting Renewable Energy and Chemistry & Organic Farming:• Climate protection into national constitution• Laws for feed-in-tariffs (GET FIT for developing countries)• Canceling subsidies for fossil and nuclear energy, fossil

chemistry and intensive agriculture• Tax relief for renewables• Carbon tax• Research and education for renewables and organic farming• Reducing obstacles for approval• Dispose big areas for reforesting and regreeningNot successful: • Tendering or certificate systems• Emission trading





Key Points of an Effective Renewable Energy Act (Feed-in Law; EEG)

Privileged grid access Feed-in tariff have to be sufficient for an

economic operation, differentiated through technologies and size

Funding of the feed-in tariff via electricity rate No cap for feed-in of renewable energies Garanteed peroid of renumeration

Also: no obstructions by a restrictive permission policy





GET FiT

GET FiT is the abbreviation of Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs for developing countries

It is a concept for facilitating private sector investments in renewable energies in developing countries• Grants are used to supplement the existing FiT mechanism

for the first five years

First project in Uganda (launch in 2013): • 90 mio. US$ over a five year period• 125 MW of renewable energies• Financed by Deutsche Bank, KfW, Great Britain

Source: Deutsche Bank, GET FiT





Installed solar home systems in Bangladesh

3583 6783 1141319213330045164679637127976

203863

317599

518218

755672

1020014

1312478

15501351655201

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Solarpower helps to reduce poverty

Financing: Microcredits

Source: Grameen Shakti, SOLAR HOME SYSTEM, http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=58&Itemid=62





Chinas Growth of Solar is tremedous

Cumulativ installed Solar in GW•2010: 0,86•2016: 77 •Official target 2020: 105•Analysts forecast: 180

Source: AECEA, Frank Haugwitz





Western Oilcompanies: since oil price decline mostly only losses

Source: Energy Watch Group, Werner Zittel





Double pitfall for fossil/nuclear business

Rising oil/gas/coal/uranium prices•Energy consumers switch to renewables

Declining oil/gas/coal/uranium prices•Financers stop financing•State budget on the way to bankruptcy

Both leads to economic pressure forfossil/nuclear companies

$3.4 trillion fossil fuel assets are flagged fordivestment by more than 500 institutions and2,040 individuals from 43 countries





Leonardo di Caprio 17.4.2017 in Shanghaiat Presentation of new BYD E-cars





Global Cooling/Globale Abkühlung Strategies for Climate Protection/Strategien gegen die Klimaschutzblockade

Source: Beuth

http://www.beuth.de/de/artikel/globale-abkuehlung

www.globalcooling-climateprotection.net

Thank You VeryMuch for Your

Attention!

www.hans-josef-fell.dewww.energywatchgroup.org

Documents

The German experience on the way to 100% renewabels...The German experience on the way to 100% renewabels Hans-Josef Fell President of Energy Watch Group Member of German Parliament