The Elements of Strategic Thinking

Review by Gregory A. Raymond

Department of Political Science, Boise State University

Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft. By Terry L. Deibel. New York:Cambridge University Press, 2007. 435 pp., $85.00 cloth (ISBN: 978-0-521-87191-4); $29.99paper (ISBN: 978-0-521-69277-9).

‘‘I am more afraid of our own blunders than of the enemy’s devices.’’ So, report-edly, said the Athenian leader Pericles in 431 BCE, on the eve of war with Spartaand its allies in the Peloponnesian League (Strassler 1996: 83–84). Among themost serious blunders that a political leader can make is to embark upon amajor policy initiative without a coherent plan for the coordinated use ofthe resources that a state possesses for achieving its goals. As illustrated bythe ill-fated Sicilian expedition launched by the Athenians more than a decadeafter Pericles’ death, foreign policy undertakings divorced from strategicthinking about the relationship between means and ends are unlikely to besuccessful.

Arguing that ‘‘strategic thinking is far too useful to be limited to military sub-jects’’ (p. 4), Terry Deibel has written a guide on how to think strategically aboutforeign affairs. Given that the majority of texts on contemporary American for-eign policy concentrate on the sources of policy proposals and the dynamics ofthe policy-making process, his focus on designing foreign affairs strategy is a wel-come addition to the literature. To be sure, some current texts have chapters onmilitary coercion and economic sanctions, but few delve into the strategic logicthat links national values and interests to instruments of statecraft for dealingwith international threats and opportunities. Indeed, the dearth of such books issurprising given the academic community’s frequent expressions of concernabout being policy relevant.

Terry Deibel’s Foreign Affairs Strategy is organized around a three-tiered analyt-ical framework derived from the most fundamental tasks that he believes strate-gists perform. Assessment, which comprises the framework’s first tier, pertainsto examining prevailing assumptions about the international and domesticenvironments. Analysis, the second tier, entails matching means with ends.Planning, the third, involves formulating objectives and determining whichinstruments will be used in what ways to achieve them. Thus for Deibel, theelements of strategic thinking are straightforward: begin with a clear concep-tion of interests based on the nation’s values; prioritize threats to those inter-ests and opportunities for advancing them according to their magnitude,likelihood, imminence, and tractability; carefully consider what resourcesare needed to address these threats and opportunities, remaining sensitive tothe distinctions between latent versus mobilized power, absolute versus relativepower, and concrete versus perceptual power; formulate objectives that areboth desirable and feasible; frame them in a way that attracts domestic andinternational support; and choose political, informational, economic, and mili-tary instruments of statecraft that maximize leverage while minimizing costsand risks.

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International Studies Review (2008) 10, 315–317

Though sketched in a sequential manner, Deibel’s framework is meant to beused in an iterative fashion, with the strategist moving back and forth matchingmeans to ends while continuously reevaluating his or her assumptions about thestrategic environment. Throughout the book, Deibel illustrates different compo-nents of his framework with examples from recent American foreign policy,including cases where assessment, analysis, and planning were done poorly aswell as where they were done effectively. Special attention is devoted to critiqu-ing the strategy of the George W. Bush administration, and proposing an alterna-tive that he maintains would better serve the nation’s interests at a lower costand risk. Incisive and accessible, clearly written and well-organized, Foreign PolicyStrategy not only helps sharpen the reader’s thinking about American foreign pol-icy, but it provides a scheme that is suitable for dissecting the strategic logic thatunderpins any country’s foreign policy.

Whereas, at first glance one might have the impression that Deibel has pro-duced a checklist for would-be strategists, the book is far more ambitious,devoting considerable effort to explaining the nuances of key concepts andexploring the internal and external impediments to forging an effective for-eign affairs strategy. To be successful, Deibel insists that strategists must main-tain ‘‘a mental stance of provisional agnosticism’’ (p. 118) and recognize thatthey will encounter ‘‘intelligent resistance’’ to the courses of action that theychoose (p. 21). That is to say, strategists must guard against allowing ideologi-cal preferences to interfere with appraising evidence and not allow estimatesof threats, opportunities, or their country’s military strength determinenational interests.

At the same time, they need to bear in mind that strategic thinking isinteractive. Domestically, policy proposals must be justified to Congress andthe general public, and the roles of disparate executive agencies must beorchestrated so they can function in a complementary, reinforcing fashionwhen applying the instruments of state power. Internationally, strategistsmust forecast the capabilities and intentions of opponents who might frus-trate their plans, and then develop countermeasures to circumvent potentialobstacles.

Rather than simply following a neatly ordered checklist, strategists mustthink far and wide. Looking over a long time horizon, they need to analyzemultiple factors simultaneously, weighing their relative importance and howthey may interact in nonlinear ways. As suggested by former Middle East envoyDennis Ross (2007:xi), they must also appreciate power while respecting itslimits. Effective strategic thinking thus involves more than adhering to achecklist; it requires good judgment. Whereas strategists strive to attain cher-ished values, they face a world of uncertainty and difficult tradeoffs where suc-cess is rarely total. ‘‘The point of doing foreign affairs strategy…is not to getbetween blue covers a plan that can then be slavishly followed,’’ concludesDeibel. ‘‘The idea is rather to bring intentionality into one’s statecraft, toinfuse in decision makers’ minds ways of thinking about policy and a sense ofdirection that will sustain them through the inevitable vicissitudes of foreignrelations’’ (p. 360).

In summary, Terry Deibel’s Foreign Affairs Strategy makes an important, timelycontribution to the field of foreign policy analysis. Of course, following a foreignpolicy decision-making process anchored in strategic thinking cannot guaranteegoal attainment. It can, however, reduce the odds of making serious, avoidableblunders. As Amarillo Slim, a former winner of the World Series of Poker, put it:‘‘One of my mantras has always been ‘Decisions, not results.’ Do the right thingenough times and the results will take care of themselves in the long run’’(Preston and Dinkin 2003: p. 101).

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References

Preston, Amarillo Slim, and Greg Dinkin. (2003) Amarillo Slim in a World of Fat People: The Memoirsof the Greatest Gambler Who Ever Lived. New York: HarperCollins.

Ross, Dennis. (2007) Statecraft: And How To Restore America’s Standing in the World. New York: Farrar,Straus and Giroux.

Strassler, Robert P., ed. (1996) The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the PeloponnesianWar. New York: Free Press.

317Gregory A. Raymond