The educational gender gap, The educational gender gap, catch up and labour market catch up and labour market

performanceperformance

Martyn AndrewsMartyn Andrews (University of (University of

Manchester)Manchester), , Steve Bradley, Dave Steve Bradley, Dave

Stott & Jim TaylorStott & Jim Taylor (Lancaster University)(Lancaster University)

The educational gender gapThe educational gender gap IssuesIssues

Performance of girls is superior to boys and Performance of girls is superior to boys and getting widergetting wider

Concern about low achieving boysConcern about low achieving boys

Girls do better in ‘language’ based subjects, Girls do better in ‘language’ based subjects, boys do better in Maths & Scienceboys do better in Maths & Science

Even if girls outperform boys, does it matter if Even if girls outperform boys, does it matter if they are discriminated against in the labour they are discriminated against in the labour market?market?

The educational gender gapThe educational gender gap ObjectivesObjectives

Use biannual YCS (1985-2001) & NPD (2002-03)Use biannual YCS (1985-2001) & NPD (2002-03)

1. Define & measure the gender gap and document how it 1. Define & measure the gender gap and document how it changes through timechanges through time

2. Explain how the gap changes when we control for2. Explain how the gap changes when we control for Observable effects – individual, family, school, Observable effects – individual, family, school,

neighbourhoodneighbourhood Unobservable effects Unobservable effects

School-level (e.g. discipline, tiering, streaming School-level (e.g. discipline, tiering, streaming Individual-level (e.g. attitudes, motivation)Individual-level (e.g. attitudes, motivation)

3. Repeat 1 & 2 for subject groups3. Repeat 1 & 2 for subject groups 4. Measure & explain how the gap changes during the 4. Measure & explain how the gap changes during the

educational processeducational process Age 11-16 (at KS2, KS3, KS4)Age 11-16 (at KS2, KS3, KS4)

Previous researchPrevious research EducationalEducational

Descriptive studies Descriptive studies e.g. Gorard et al (1999)e.g. Gorard et al (1999)

School effectiveness School effectiveness e.g. Wong et al (2002)e.g. Wong et al (2002)

Qualitative / case studies Qualitative / case studies e.g. OFSTED (2003)e.g. OFSTED (2003) Organisation, teaching & learning, curriculum & Organisation, teaching & learning, curriculum &

assessmentassessment School organisationSchool organisation Culture of laddishnessCulture of laddishness Idiosyncratic school effectsIdiosyncratic school effects Home backgroundHome background

Economics Economics e.g. Dolton et al (1999), Burgess et al (2004)e.g. Dolton et al (1999), Burgess et al (2004)

Data & methodologyData & methodology Estimate education production functionsEstimate education production functions

Outcome = function of:Outcome = function of: Girl (gap)Girl (gap) Individual characteristicsIndividual characteristics School characteristicsSchool characteristics Neighbourhood characteristicsNeighbourhood characteristics Unobserved individual-level effectsUnobserved individual-level effects Unobserved school-level effectsUnobserved school-level effects

Are there correlations between girl and (observable & Are there correlations between girl and (observable & unobservable) effects?unobservable) effects? Zero – gap is the published figure Zero – gap is the published figure Girl & personal (zero?) Girl & personal (zero?) Girl & school (sorting?) Girl & school (sorting?) Girl & unobserved individual effects (motivation)Girl & unobserved individual effects (motivation) Girl & unobserved school effects (sorting?)Girl & unobserved school effects (sorting?)

Unobserved individual-level & unobserved school-level effects Unobserved individual-level & unobserved school-level effects

DataData Pooled cross-section (YCS) data (1985-2001)Pooled cross-section (YCS) data (1985-2001)

YCS2-3 – GCE/CSEYCS2-3 – GCE/CSE YCS4+ -- GCSEYCS4+ -- GCSE

Observed variablesObserved variables Individual – gender, ethnicity, ageIndividual – gender, ethnicity, age Family – parental occupation, single parent, housing Family – parental occupation, single parent, housing

tenuretenure School – Pupil-teacher ratio, pupil composition, size, School – Pupil-teacher ratio, pupil composition, size,

competitioncompetition Neighbourhood – unemployment rate, occupational Neighbourhood – unemployment rate, occupational

mixmix YCS6-11 observe the same school up to 6 YCS6-11 observe the same school up to 6

times – school level unobservablestimes – school level unobservables

DataData

NPD 2002 & 2003NPD 2002 & 2003 Observe KS2, KS3 & GCSE resultsObserve KS2, KS3 & GCSE results PopulationPopulation Advantages:Advantages:

Control for (estimate?) unobserved individual Control for (estimate?) unobserved individual effectseffects

41,000 pupils move schools41,000 pupils move schools Identify individual & school level unobservablesIdentify individual & school level unobservables

But … few individual-level covariatesBut … few individual-level covariates

Outcomes – measures of educational Outcomes – measures of educational performanceperformance

Pass/fail for each subject (grade C +) Pass/fail for each subject (grade C +)

Number A*-C GCSEs – all subjectsNumber A*-C GCSEs – all subjects

5 + A*-C GCSEs – headline figure5 + A*-C GCSEs – headline figure

Points score – distribution (A*=7, etc.)Points score – distribution (A*=7, etc.)

Absolute versus relative gapsAbsolute versus relative gaps

Debate Debate Educationalists label Educationalists label

the absolute gap as the absolute gap as the ‘politicians error’ the ‘politicians error’

Absolute gap increases Absolute gap increases as relative gap fallsas relative gap falls

Absolute gap is correctAbsolute gap is correct Note the increase in Note the increase in

the gap from the the gap from the introduction of GCSEintroduction of GCSE

Econometric findings - observablesEconometric findings - observables

What explains the gender gap What explains the gender gap (differential)?(differential)?

Selective schools have a very large effect on attainmentSelective schools have a very large effect on attainment

Single sex schools have a large, but smaller, effectSingle sex schools have a large, but smaller, effect

Neither of these effects contribute much to the gender Neither of these effects contribute much to the gender gapgap

Other observable differences between girls and boys (e.g. Other observable differences between girls and boys (e.g.

family background, poverty) do not explain the gapfamily background, poverty) do not explain the gap

Are the findings genuine? Biased sample for YCS Are the findings genuine? Biased sample for YCS butbut we we observe similar effects for NPD (population)observe similar effects for NPD (population)

The story so far The story so far

Observable differences between girls & boys do not Observable differences between girls & boys do not explain the gapexplain the gap

Girls must therefore behave differently prior to Girls must therefore behave differently prior to GCSEsGCSEs

1. Choice of secondary school1. Choice of secondary school

2. Subject level gaps at GCSE2. Subject level gaps at GCSE

3. Differences in exam performance between KS2 & KS43. Differences in exam performance between KS2 & KS4

1. Choice of school1. Choice of school Control for school-level unobservablesControl for school-level unobservables

YCS6-11 & NPD1-2 (panels)YCS6-11 & NPD1-2 (panels)

Controlling for school level unobservables is important Controlling for school level unobservables is important level not trendlevel not trend Discipline, tiering, streamingDiscipline, tiering, streaming

Between 1991-2001 the gender gap is halvedBetween 1991-2001 the gender gap is halved- E.g. YCS10 = 0.04 versus 0.10E.g. YCS10 = 0.04 versus 0.10

Implication:Implication: Has the quasi-market (ERA, 1988) meant that Has the quasi-market (ERA, 1988) meant that girls are marginally more attractive to better schools?girls are marginally more attractive to better schools? Un-testable because of lack of linked school data prior to 1991 Un-testable because of lack of linked school data prior to 1991

2. Subject level gaps at GCSE2. Subject level gaps at GCSE

2. Subject level gaps at GCSE2. Subject level gaps at GCSE

Data shows that girls outperform boys in languages, English Data shows that girls outperform boys in languages, English & vocational subjects& vocational subjects

‘‘One-off’ GCE-GCSE effect disadvantaging boys – languages, One-off’ GCE-GCSE effect disadvantaging boys – languages, science, mathsscience, maths

Since 1988 the gap has increased at the same rate – girls Since 1988 the gap has increased at the same rate – girls catch-up in maths & science catch-up in maths & science

Controlling for observable & unobservable differences lowers Controlling for observable & unobservable differences lowers the gap by one-tenth of a GCSE gradethe gap by one-tenth of a GCSE grade

Girls ahead in English, languages & vocational, level in Girls ahead in English, languages & vocational, level in humanities & behind in Maths and Sciencehumanities & behind in Maths and Science

3. Differences in exam performance 3. Differences in exam performance between KS2 & KS4between KS2 & KS4

Maths, English, Science at KS2, KS3 & KS4 Maths, English, Science at KS2, KS3 & KS4 (population)(population)

See Table on KS2-4 See Table on KS2-4

Gaps at GCSE: English (0.63), Maths (0.03) and Gaps at GCSE: English (0.63), Maths (0.03) and Science (0.06)Science (0.06)

At KS2: Girls better in English (0.23), behind in Maths At KS2: Girls better in English (0.23), behind in Maths

(-0.07) & Science (-0.04)(-0.07) & Science (-0.04) Girls improve between KS3 & KS4 in all subjects, but Girls improve between KS3 & KS4 in all subjects, but

only in English between KS2 & KS3only in English between KS2 & KS3

Differences in exam performanceDifferences in exam performance Controlling for school & pupil-level unobservablesControlling for school & pupil-level unobservables 1. Correlation between ‘Girl’ & individual-level = 0!1. Correlation between ‘Girl’ & individual-level = 0!

But, disaggregating we find that girls are unobservably better in But, disaggregating we find that girls are unobservably better in English and worse in Maths & ScienceEnglish and worse in Maths & Science

Note that KS2 & KS3 do not test other ‘girl-good’ subjects – see Note that KS2 & KS3 do not test other ‘girl-good’ subjects – see YCS resultsYCS results

2. The correlation between unobserved-school level & 2. The correlation between unobserved-school level & unobserved individual-level effects is greater than zerounobserved individual-level effects is greater than zero Unobservably good pupils go to unobservable good schools Unobservably good pupils go to unobservable good schools

(i.e. middle class parents, catchment areas)(i.e. middle class parents, catchment areas)

3. The correlation between ‘Girl’ & unobserved school-level 3. The correlation between ‘Girl’ & unobserved school-level effects is greater than zero (see YCS results)effects is greater than zero (see YCS results) Girls go to unobservably better schoolsGirls go to unobservably better schools Girls are observably better at KS2 – schools therefore select Girls are observably better at KS2 – schools therefore select

themthem

Conclusions & implications for policyConclusions & implications for policy

1. Gender gap emerges once the GCSE system is 1. Gender gap emerges once the GCSE system is introducedintroduced Learning & assessment methods favour girlsLearning & assessment methods favour girls

2. Girls are better than boys 2. Girls are better than boys A) EnglishA) English B) Selected into unobservably better schoolsB) Selected into unobservably better schools

3. No effect of single sex schooling3. No effect of single sex schooling 4. Selective schools & poverty have a small effect on 4. Selective schools & poverty have a small effect on

the gapthe gap 5. Gap is greatest in English & languages and has 5. Gap is greatest in English & languages and has

closed in Maths & Scienceclosed in Maths & Science 6. Unobserved differences between schools (e.g. 6. Unobserved differences between schools (e.g.

discipline, tiering, streaming) are important – YCS only discipline, tiering, streaming) are important – YCS only

SpeculationSpeculation

A) Introduction of GCSE system created the A) Introduction of GCSE system created the gap gap

B) Quasi-market exacerbated the gap B) Quasi-market exacerbated the gap changed incentives facing schoolschanged incentives facing schools select the best – girlsselect the best – girls

Cumulative & self-perpetuatingCumulative & self-perpetuating Girls go to good schoolsGirls go to good schools

But the gap stabilisesBut the gap stabilises Shocks A & B eventually burn out (equilibrium) Shocks A & B eventually burn out (equilibrium) The introduction of KS2 helps boys (fewer ‘girl-The introduction of KS2 helps boys (fewer ‘girl-

good’ tests), which means they also sort into good’ tests), which means they also sort into ‘good’ schools ‘good’ schools